$SPY possibilities for 05/14/2024Just for educational purpose trying this for the first time tomorrow AMEX:SPY possibilities ad drawnLongby jaisrav0
Bat Pattern FailI was wrong in my idea last night that we were following a bat harmonic pattern in bear country. While I still see a pull back imminent, I note what I realize this morning, that this is not matching ANY harmonic pattern (AB and BC aren't aligning to the required .38 or .88 ratio) Shortby Bwinks0
Same look as Sep 2020?The crossing of the 55 and 600 Day MA means a bullish change in small cap stocks. If large caps have strong earnings moving forward, I think small cap will follow and break this capitulation. From 175-190$ I will be buying for long term.Longby LeapTradesUpdated 229
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 189/199/255/265 Iron Condor... for a 2.23 credit. Comments: A small engagement trade in the semiconductor ETF (31.5% 30-Day IV). Going somewhat wide here with the deltas, with the short option legs camped out at 16 delta on both sides. I generally like to collect one-third the width of the wings in credit for these, but am going a little more long-dated than usual, so want to give it a smidge more room to be wrong. The assumption here is neutral, with the bet being that it slops around between my short option strikes. I'll generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or adjust sides on approaching worthless or on side test. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 7.77 Max Profit: 2.23 ROC at Max: 28.70% ROC at 50% Max: 14.35% Delta/Theta: .37/3.01Longby NaughtyPines1
Opening (IRA): ARKK May 17th 44 Monied Covered Call... for a 43.00 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 52.7/38.7. Going monied here, buying a Johnny one lot and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to take advantage of elevated IV on the call side and to have built-in position defense via the short call. This is slightly shorter duration than I like to go (39 DTE), but I also don't have a ton on here, so scrounging around for decent IV underlyings. Cathie also doesn't pay divvies but once a year in December, so there's no point in hanging around in the stock for any period of time. Will generally look to take profit at 50% max on the whole shebang (stock + short call) and/or roll out the short call if it hits 50% max to reduce cost basis further. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis In Stock/Break Even: 43.00/share Max Profit: 1.00 ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.33% ROC at 50% Max: 1.16% As previously noted in my other monied covered call posts, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment where you don't get BP relief going short put. On margin, short put will be the most BP efficient. Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
Opening (IRA): XBI July 19th 83 Monied Covered Call... for an 80.91 debit. Comments: After taking off my August 88 monied for a small profit, re-upping in shorter duration, but with a better break even than what I had with the August 88. Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot of stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. My general goal here is to not hang out in these positions for lengthy periods of time, but to take profit, re-evaluate the market for where the juice is at, and re-up if the underlying remains "sexy" from a premium-selling standpoint. XBI's 30-day IV isn't stellar at 30.9%, but it's toward the top of my IV screener, with miners and the silver ETF hogging three spots: TQQQ (51.8%); GDXJ (44.0%); GDX (38.7%); SLV (32.3%); SMH (31.6%); EWZ (31.1%); XBI (30.9%). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 80.91 Max Profit: 2.09 ROC at Max: 2.58% ROC at 50% Max: 1.29% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call aspect if it reaches 50% max or there is a test of my downside break even. Longby NaughtyPines1
OIL a clear invented Head n Shoulders BOTTOMA wave E low is now in place I am LONG OIL in the money callsby wavetimer113
Rolling (IRA): XBI May 17th 88 Short Call to June 21st 88... for a 1.25 credit. Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my XBI covered call at ~50% max to the June expiry for a 1.25 credit. Cost basis now 85.94 (See Post Below) minus 1.25 or 84.69. Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
Resistance Support & RSIThe entry point for buying QQQ stock at the price indicated in the image can be followed, with both entry and profit-taking points provided. Longby fame25337
$SPY May 13, 2024AMEX:SPY May 13, 2024 15 Minutes. Had a gap up on Friday. I sold into strength. I had a view of 522 levels with bias down as oscillator divergence. We can see the divergence more prominent now. Also, if you see in daily the rise is steep and 9 averages is around 512 and 21 around 508 levels. And in one hour chart we have the 522.63 bar having close near low of bar. All these are negative bias for me. For the day we have 100 averages around 518.5 and 200 averages around 514 levels. So, if 518 is broken I will short. And i will buy above 522.75 only (as per 60-minute bar pattern explained above) We have an unfilled gap around 508.5 levels. So, for the rise 508.56 to 522.63 if 518 is broken the short i will enter will have target 514 to 515 levels. Shortby RiderTrader444
Macro Monday 46 - South America Indexes Signaling Major Trend Macro Monday 46 Emerging Chart Trend in South America and Brazil Brazil is the largest economy in South America, followed by Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Peru. These 5 countries together hold a huge 90% share of the South American economy. Today we will look at index charts for South America and Brazil to get an overall initial technical picture from a price standpoint of the aggregate in these regions. IShares Latin America 40 ETF - AMEX:ILF The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) is a collection of the 40 largest Latin American equities by market cap. The index is heavily weighted in Financial Services which makes up 33% of the Index. Basic materials form 19% and Energy makes up 15% of the Index allocation. Interestingly NUBank NYSE:NUS has a large c.6% holding within the index. This is a stock I hold that has performed incredibly well and I have shared many bullish charts on NU. Incredible that a relatively New Bank has grown large enough to make it into the top 5 holdings here. The Top 5 companies in the ILF Index are: 1. Vale S.A. NYSE:VALE : 9.3% Allocation. This company is a global leader in iron ore production and the second-largest nickel producer (Basic Materials). 2. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras NYSE:PBR : 7.6% Allocation. Known as Petrobras, this is a multinational corporation in the petroleum industry (Energy). 3. Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. $ITUB. 6.5% Allocation. Itaú Unibanco is one of the largest banks in Brazil, providing a range of financial products and services (Financial Services). 4. Nu Holdings Ltd. NYSE:NU : 5.84% Allocation. Nu Holdings is a financial technology company that offers banking services and is known for its digital banking platform, Nubank (Financial Services). 5. Grupo Financiero Banorte, S.A.B. de C.V. SKILLING:GFNORTEO.MX : 5.36% Allocation. Banorte is one of the largest and most prominent financial institutions in Mexico (Financial Services) The Latin America 40 ILF Char SUBJECT CHART ABOVE What jumps from this chart? ▫️ Firstly we appear to forming a long term pennant style flag from which a break up is more likely than a break down. ▫️ We have been rejected from the upper diagonal line repeatedly and if we break above this line it would be a very good indication of an initial trend change. ▫️ We have dashed underside diagonal support line warns of lower prices if broken (historically has been useful). ▫️ We are above the 200 week SMA at present and we are challenging the PointOfControl (POC) Line. Summary South America 40 Index As this is a long term pennant style flag from a major increase in price action in the early 2000’s, a break above the long term diagonal resistance line would be a major signal of the beginning of a new bullish trend, keep in mind that such a price move would also demonstrate a break above POC (strong trading range to hold as support). We need to watch the diagonal underside support line (dashed line) for a break lower which would be an indication of significant weakness. Either direction will give us a good signal of how the largest companies in Latin America are performing and by extension South America. Now lets look at the largest performing country in South America, Brazil. Brazil Brazil is the 8th largest economy in the world and the only country in South America to make it into the top 10 world’s economies. Brazil is the top contributor to South American nominal GDP accounting for 61% of the increase in the South American economy (Int. $264 bn). In 2nd and 3rd place are Colombia (Int. $50 bn) and Peru (Int. $25 bn) with much lower contributions. Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2023 grew 2.9% and is expected to grow by c. 2% in 2024, lower is anticipated mainly as a result of the delayed effects of monetary tightening. Brazil is considered a key financial center for South America. It has the largest economy in the region and is home to a number of significant financial institutions and stock exchanges. São Paulo, in particular, is recognized as the financial capital of Brazil and is a primary hub for international business activity in the country. Brazil is also a leading producer of a host of minerals, including iron ore, tin, bauxite (the ore of aluminum), manganese, gold, quartz, and diamonds and other gems, and it exports vast quantities of steel, automobiles, electronics, and consumer goods. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF - AMEX:EWZ The iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of Brazilian equities. The ETF tracks a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-capitalization segments of the equity market in Brazil. All this means is that Larger companies have a bigger impact on the index’s performance. The index is heavily weighted in Financial Services which makes up 25% of the Index. Energy at 22% and Basic materials at 16.6% of the Index allocation are 2nd and 3rd after Financial Services. The Top 5 companies in the ILF Index are: 1. Vale S.A. NYSE:VALE 3.SA : 11.3% Allocation. This is a mining company and one of the largest producers of iron ore and nickel in the world (Basic Materials) 2. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras $PETR4.SA & $PETR3.SA: 10.1% Allocation. Commonly known as Petrobras, this state-controlled company is involved in the energy sector, primarily focusing on the exploration, production, and distribution of oil and gas (Energy). 3. Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. $ITUB4.SA: 8.3% Allocation. Itaú Unibanco is one of the largest financial conglomerates in the Southern Hemisphere (Financial Services) 4. Banco Bradesco S.A. $BBDC4.SA: 8.0% Allocation. This is another major player in the Brazilian financial market, offering a wide range of banking and financial services (Financial Services) 5. WEG S.A. $WEGE3.SA: 3.5% Allocation. WEG is an industrial company that operates globally in the electric engineering, power, and automation technology areas (Industrials). The EWZ Chart What jumps from this chart? ▫️ Firstly we appear to forming a long term pennant from which a break up is more likely than a break down IMO. ▫️ We have been rejected from the upper diagonal line repeatedly and if we break above this line it would be a very good indication of an initial trend change. ▫️ We have dashed underside diagonal support line warns of lower prices if broken (historically has been useful). ▫️ We have yet to break above the 200 week SMA and we are challenging the PointOfControl (POC) Line. Summary Brazil Index A break above the long term diagonal resistance line would be a major signal of the beginning of a new bullish trend, keep in mind that such a price move would also demonstrate a break above POC (strong trading range to hold as support). We need to watch the diagonal underside support line (dashed line) for a break lower which would be an indication of significant weakness. Either direction will give us a good signal of how the largest companies in Brazil are performing and by extension South America (as Brazil is thee major contributor to South America. Overall Overall IF the Latin America ETF and the Brazil ETF break out of their respective pennants to higher levels and find support prior diagonal resistance lines, the 200 weekly SMA, and the POC, this could indicate a bullish trend in South America for years to come. It would then be worthwhile to then look at companies within Brazil and South America for trading and investing opportunities. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the South America market has performed. I hope its helpful. PUKA Longby PukaCharts0
QQQ 1hr - Stalling at Major ResistanceQQQ was looking great on Friday morning, it finally managed to break out above its bear flag and a downtrend it had been in since April. Unfortunately for bulls, it quickly rejected after consumer sentiment was released. Having a fakeout like this will usually lead to a larger move in the opposite direction, but I need to see more confirmation. I'll be looking for VX strength/weakness and will see if QQQ can gap back above these trendlines or if we're heading back down. We should get a bigger move by the end of the week and could have some great opportunities on retests, but I'm proceeding with caution until after CPI.Shortby AdvancedPlays4
SPY 1D - Potential Paths This WeekSPY quickly broke out of its downtrend and even broke out above a bear flag that had been forming. We had a low volume week last week, but SPY closed strong, pushing all the way back up to $520. It's wild to look at where SPY is now considering what the market was like just a few weeks ago. Bears get squeezed once again. I have a lot of suspicions about this rally, so I'll mostly be sitting on hands until after CPI. Anything could happen this week, but this is a bullish chart for now. Only things that are concerning for bulls are the low volume and the last daily candle from Friday being a gravestone doji.by AdvancedPlays114
Energy - which way are we headed?Energy does not look good right now. XLE+XOP has an inverse correlation to the gold/oil ratio. The two only move into neutral and positive correlations for brief periods before one of them changes direction. Additionally, when the gold/oil ratio crosses 30 we’ve seen energy prices begin to fall to more extreme lows. The technicals above indicate gold is continuing higher . If we’re patient, this should lead to a very strong buying opportunity in energy. Oil recently tested and rejected the 200SMA. This makes it more likely that we see another test of the green AVWAP tied to the covid low than a retest of the red one from the March 2022 high. Longby Ben_1148x21
XLU ShortXLU high probability Short from here. 100% extension (AB = CD). Historically pullback whenever RSI is over 75.Shortby daOldWolf0
STop wasting time only forecast needed i have posted recently was a little sloppy hopefully you take these dates into actiopn spread the word with your love ones we will take out 2020 lows similar to 07 crash look at my public profile for a better understandingShortby cw1sss555
✅SPY MOVE DOWN AHEAD|SHORT🔥 ✅SPY surged again to retest the resistance of 524.57$ But it is a strong key level So I think that there is a high chance That we will see a bearish pullback and a move down SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅Shortby ProSignalsFx3
QQQ: Short Trade Explained QQQ - Classic bearish pattern - Our team expects retracement SUGGESTED TRADE: Swing Trade Sell QQQ Entry - 442.04 Stop - 447.89 Take - 432.43 Our Risk - 1% Start protection of your profits from lower levels ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️ Shortby UnitedSignals332
SPY Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 520.83 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 512.34 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK Shortby AnabelSignals114
read left to right may forecastwill chop monday open higher on mday close low open low close not high but wen will open higher and crash @ 8;30 or 11:48Shortby cw1sss1
will be the last analysis you need spy will crash this month or this month we might end flat what some peopkle say is a doji. if we doo one month left till crash... market is cycle look at 1890 to 1933 this the sauce wake up... click on my profile ill post it for you :) we will crash on a lower time frime aka the trendline... after 2030 will will rally till we cant cu m no more... thats the 29 crash shift to chinaa will happen then repeat cycleShortby cw1sss0
Bullish on HK/Chinese equities - breaking outBreaking out of long term decline - however might pullback shortly before moving higherLongby Badassmofo0