During the previous period the market was trying to price its expectations of a less than three rate cuts during the course of this year, giving up on the Fed's announcement from the latest FOMC meeting. The meeting held on May 1st, showed that the market was right in its assumptions, considering that the emerging US inflation might put halt on rate cuts this...
Rough map pf rate expectation without pretension of accuracy for dates nor timing...
Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn...
The critical support level to watch here is the 50-day MA at 4.38%, as a failed break below this yield will allow yields to spike to 5% off the back of a continued sell-off in US long-term paper despite the Feds efforts to aid the US bond market. Keep an eye on the tail in this week’s US 10-year note auction! The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last...
With predominantly bearish price action during the week, intraday sentiment is more shifted towards a continuation to the downside at this current time. Due to higher time frame narrative, I am looking out for a retracement to 4.563% hourly fair value gap. Candle body closure below 4.455% will negate the idea.
rate is moving up in yellow parallel channel lower yellow line is working as perfect trend line in recent may fomc fed has said he neither see stag or flation if there are no hike in future then lower trend line must break if second wave of rate hike is coming then trend line must hold and it can go up 5%
US10Y > 8% what happen for those house/ car mortgage? What happen to #gold when big player have "guaranteed" in bank deposits? What happen to "healthy" bank's "stock"?..
Released data for the US economy during the previous week could point to the stagflation moment in the US during the course of this year. Posted data for core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index show that in March it increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis, from 2.6% expected by the markets. At the same time, the first estimate for the US GDP Growth Rate was...
The weekly range spans from 4.570% - 4.739% and with the weekly EQ being tagged alongside buyside getting swiped, I am scoping out for the daily order block which is near the weekly sellside @ 4.593% and the second target being the lows at 4.570%. Some form of a pullback into the lower displacement weekly fair value gap is a projection for throughout the...
The early morning Asian sessions saw some peculiar moves with the USDJPY pair falling to a low of 154.56. There are rumors of possible FX intervention from BoJ to save their vulnerable Yen. Simultaneously, there was strong buying pressure for the US 10year which is pulling yields down aggressively. The US 10-year yield is showing signs of pulling back following...
Short term #yield is higher. Long term has turned & are catching a bid. At the moment it doesn't look like they're going down any time soon & that is not good longer term. Was speaking with loan officer yesterday & they believe they must lower before election. But, what if it goes higher before it goes lower? TVC:TNX
What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? The clear five-wave pattern in bond yields is causing concern.
We suspect that the US 10Y yield chart has topped short term having tested and again failed at its previous uptrend at 4.74 (which is now acting as resistance) . Please see the weekly chart. This throws the spotlight on key nearby support where we find a short term uptrend, last week's low, the 55-day ma and the 200-day ma together with a previous high all...
This is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential...
I will start forecasting full years in advance and provide updates from there finally understand how the bond markets works dont be fooled folk 2024 nasdaq is crashing market is overbought the recovery was too quick easy come easy go and only the informed are preparing their shorts if u appreciate my work like, tip, comment, follow
1O YR yields may have topped and are retracing. Yields are rolling down ⤵️ TLT is up ticking 📈 as yields come down as expected 🧭
My projection for this week was a bit late but nonetheless, bullish projections of lowest displacement fair value gap was the target and yields achieved it, topping out just before CE was met @ 4.696%. Shortly after, yields witnessed a sharp paintbrush retracement mid week and never closed out higher than the highs printed on Wednesday 17th April 2024. On...
10 year looks to be heading to 5 or 5.5 %. MACD and RSI showing upward trend on weekly still. Upward fib extension looks to retest previous high or beyond if Fed doesn’t lower rates anytime soon. Looking for CPI prints to see whether Inflation is going back up which may impact 10 year and I believe the market will continue down while 10 year heads upwards so I’m...