JB7oh2

JB7oh2

It’s like I’ve said before, the market is like a party that’s been going all night and everyone knows the cops will there any minute to bust it up. The next squeeze will be the bulls throwing the party waiting for the bear cops to bust it up. In the meantime play both sides it’s a day traders market. Apple did beat aftermarket hours as everyone knows by now....

JB7oh2 Updated 

I wish I could go to work and answer “I don’t know” every time someone asks me a question I think I would be fired. Homie Powell was out of it today he doesn’t know anything about when they should stop or what will happen. Maybe he’s feeling down since he might have to start firing FED governors like Mary Daily for messing up there regions. This was the lamest...

JB7oh2

Well today a half hour after the open the JOLTs report came out and set the tone for a good part of the day. Also the regional banks and credit crunch worries for the rest of the day. But finally the big FOMC day is here with our favorite J Powell what he says will lead us for awhile. Looks like big money is betting on this being the last rate hike for the year....

JB7oh2 Updated 

All times Wall Street Monday- ISM manufacturing PMI 10am Tuesday- JOLTS job openings 10am Wednesday- ADP non-farm employment change 8:15am, ISM service PMI 10am, FOMC 2pm, FOMC press conference 2:30pm Thursday- unemployment claims 8:30am Friday- average hourly earnings M/M, non-farm employment change, unemployment rate 8:30am New month new prediction box just...

JB7oh2

No surprise after 2 days of decline the bulls squeeze the bears out, gotta share the wealth lol. We are still below the trend line closed right at it. My biggest take away so far is UPS and CAT showing weakness especially CAT when it comes to construction slowing down, GDP at 1.1% also showing weakness. So are we back bulls or is just a relief rally? Honestly I...

JB7oh2 Updated 

Well the streak is over 22 days of not closing below a -1% day is over and the boring market range looks to create volatility which means VIX goes up. Careful what you wish for, it has been easy money for the past 3 weeks in the range. Normally a 2 day conformation would be needed but todays trend day sums up that fear has set in even though 80% of the companies...

JB7oh2 Updated 

All times Wall Street hours Monday- nothing, just earnings Tuesday- CB Consumer Confidence 10am, new home sales 10am Wednesday- durable goods orders 8:30am, crude oil inventories 10:30am Thursday- GDP (QoQ) Q1 8:30am, initial jobless claims 8:30am, Friday- core PCE price index (MoM), unemployment claims 8:30am, Chicago PMI 9:45am, Michigan consumer sentiment...

JB7oh2 Updated 

Today every dip got bought up in till the last 30 minutes, bulls really showed off. But are the earnings going to be good enough to keep this trend going, no one knows. Mainly just posting this to let you know I’m only going to post every Sunday and any day that has something going on for the following trading day. I recently noticed I’m no longer a top SPY author...

JB7oh2

Being a bear this year has been difficult make sure to keep your guard up and ready to adjust your strategy. The dollar has had a low of 100.78 last week and has ran up to 102 and some change and yet we are still green in the market. With the VIX making a new 52 week low bulls have full control right now. I’m looking for a pullback on DXY to 101 and spy to...

JB7oh2

All times Wall Street hours Monday- Empire State Manufacturing index 8:30am Tuesday- building permits, housing starts 8:30am, FOMC Bowman speaks 1pm Wednesday- crude oil inventories 10:30am, Beige book 2pm, FOMC Williams speaks 7pm Thursday- unemployment claims, Philly fed manufacturing index 8:30am, FOMC Waller speaks 8:45am, existing home sales 10am, Bowman...

JB7oh2

Before anyone says anything I mean closed daily candle I know in February we had a low during market hours of 17.06. So what now are we going to spring board back to 20 or make new lows. Either way tomorrow is going to be interesting with bank earnings which made today look like buy the rumor and short covering setting up tomorrow a chance to finally break 415 and...

JB7oh2

Keeping it short today I’ve been up since 2:30am busy 12 hour day at work. The biggest thing is the feds think we are getting a mild recession by the end of the year. So obviously 414 didn’t hit they kept it down with positive delta so what know? Looking for 405 to hold we probably create an inside bar tomorrow then start the selloff once Friday comes around, I’m...

JB7oh2

The last 30 minutes was a reminder of those bloody moments that can happen at any time, protect your capital at all times when day trading it looked like a quick hedge against CPI. Speaking of CPI since it’s coming out with the FOMC minutes later I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit 414 then sell off after the FOMC not because of what there minutes say just because...

JB7oh2

Apple comes out with crappy news about their Macs not selling seems like they are having issues. With apple being the biggest holding in SPY it’s worth keeping in eye on. Semiconductor rally kept us from having a red day. Max pain at 409 as the put call ratio is 1.35, of course way more put interest. As of 4/6 the S&P is trading 38% above its modern-era historical...

JB7oh2

All times are Wall Street Monday- FOMC member Williams speaks at 4:15pm, another quiet Monday Tuesday- Energy information administration (EIA) short-term energy outlook (STEO) 12pm Wednesday- CPI 8:30am, curd oil inventories 10:30, FOMC meeting minutes 2pm Thursday- PPI 8:30am, initial jobless claims 8:30am Friday- Core retail sales 8:30am, FED Waller speaks...

JB7oh2

The bond market just got a boost with recession fears the 10 year and 3 month Tbill has a gap that hasn’t been seen in decades 150bps. It’s pretty reliable indicator for a slowdown in the economy. Remember the market is not the economy it is future seeing. If yields rise less people are buying treasuries= risk on, if yields drop more people are buying treasuries=...

JB7oh2

I’m a little surprised with the price action today with the news of lower job openings since May of 2020. This is a good sign for the fed job killing task also this might pause the rate hike in May. But the real market mover might have been Jamie Dimon coming out talking about banks still being in trouble in the future, what a genius take on future financial...

JB7oh2

Tomorrow we have the JOLTs report the last 3 times led to a green day most likely history will repeat itself. As FOMO starts to set in for investors and swing traders we are looking at a squeeze if tomorrow turns out green. Most likely we gap above 411 and end the week around 417 on Thursday since it’s a short trading week. Now once the FOMO folks get set in...