JB7oh2

JB7oh2

All times are Wall Street hours Monday- no big news events scheduled Tuesday- Retail Sales 8:30am, FOMC member Kashkari speaks 11am Wednesday- Building Permits 8:30, industrial production 9:15, FOMC meeting minutes 2pm Thursday- unemployment claims and Philly fed manufacturing index 8:30 Friday- oil rig counts 1pm So what did I miss while I was gone? Looks...

JB7oh2

This is my last post for awhile I’m taking a break from the market I don’t know if it’s the heat or just tired of hearing stocks and market talk but I’m burnt out, I felt it yesterday and today at lunch I had to change Bloomberg and put on music. So tomorrow is the big day to move the sentiment of the market we finally get some idea for the next couple of months...

JB7oh2

All times Wall Street hours Monday- Service PMI 9:45am Tuesday- Conference board (CB) consumer confidence 10am Wednesday- new home sales 10am, FOMC Statement funds rate 2pm, FOMC Press Conference JP speaks @ 2:30pm Thursday- Advanced GDP q/q - Unemployment claims 8:30am Friday- Core PCE 8:30am, revised university of Michigan consumer sentiment 10am Well here we...

JB7oh2

Finally a some selling happening. A correction to 443 would be nice to the indicators catch up. CBOE had 49.4m contracts on the market exchanged a 20% volume spike from recent levels. SPY 4.52m puts 3.68m calls, a lot of 430 put buyers. Tomorrow we have the Nasdaq reshuffle plus options expiring 2.4 trillion worth of contracts. Me personally I’m taking the day off...

JB7oh2

52 week high non stop bulls on parade. Heck we might se 460 by Friday. I don’t have much as there’s no big news. Microsoft pumped the market with the news of a 30 dollar AI service, AI bubble is still strong. As a whole calls are leading puts in the market 13 to 9, volume today was 9% above recent average levels. SPY- PUTS 4.38M CALLS 3.55M contracts today. It’s...

JB7oh2

Today leading sectors telecommunications, financials and healthcare. SPY closed at 450.76 with 3.29m in puts and 2.79m calls, puts have been leading since last Thursday. So what’s it going to look like on Friday I have no clue. Remember these are some what educated guesses “speculation” now go back and look left on the daily and see what happens when we get over...

JB7oh2

All times are Wall Street hours Monday- day 4 G20 meetings all day, Empire State manufacturing index 8:30am Tuesday- day 5 G20 meeting, Retail sales 8:30am, Industrial production 9:15am, FOMC Barr speaks 10am Wednesday- Building Permits & housing starts 8:30am, crude oil inventories 10:30am Thursday- initial jobless claims & Philadelphia fed manufacturing index...

JB7oh2

This is like some 2020 stuff right here stuff is wild. As much as we need a correction to let everything catch up it may not happen. Lots of FOMO kicking in people thinking damn I’m missing out on something even hedge funds on Bloomberg are talking about too much cash sitting around doing nothing. There’s a lot to unpack with the dollar going below 100 for the...

JB7oh2

CPI number came in below forecast at 3%, could have fooled me seems like everything is still going up. But tomorrow is a new day with PPI and unemployment claims ready to send us past 448 and possibly 450 by Friday maybe. Today we had an uptick in options 4.22m puts 4.05 calls= 8.27m total with puts leading today for the first time in a while. Life tends to snap...

JB7oh2

Another day of some crazy price action. It’s a scalpers market lately you have to be fast with taking profits base hits if you’re swing for home runs you have to be fast in making your decision. Once again below average volume with contracts with call’s leading puts 11 to 7 SPY had 3.18m puts 3.60m calls= 6.78m total. Tomorrow CPI head line is forecast at 3.1% YoY...

JB7oh2

Sideways all afternoon then last minute finally some direction, theta ate all premiums today. Options volume of 35.4m contracts was 16% below recent average levels, with call’s leading puts 11 to 8 across stock, etf and index according to CBOE. SPY 3.16M PUTS 3.40M CALLS. Volume is low obviously so quick melt ups or down can happen fast be careful out there this...

JB7oh2

All times Wall Street hours Monday- FOMC Barr speaks 10am Tuesday- FOMC Bullard speaks 9am, 3 year auction 1:01pm Wednesday- CPI 8:30am, FOMC Kashkari speaks 9:45am, 10 year bond auction 1:01pm Thursday-PPI & Unemployment claims 8:30am, Federal Budget Balance 11:00am, Fed Waller speaks 3:45pm Friday- Import/ Export MoM index 8:30am, Michigan Consumer Sentiment...

JB7oh2

Today’s conference was interesting, the main thing that caught my ear was inflation sticking around until 2025 as the headline inflation goes down the core is staying higher. Also he’s not against two more consecutive rate hikes, for sure we will see one in July and most likely in September. We still had a nice rally today however we sold off at 437 which was no...

JB7oh2

Finally we break out of the falling wedge and it was a strong clear break no gaps. Right at 10am the consumer numbers came out and showed strength in spending, people will waste money all the time, I know I do lol. Make sure to look at my Sunday post about events to check real quick what’s happening that day. I knew that 30 minutes into the day we would have data...

JB7oh2

Tech selloff today and no movement in the bond market. Investors think the central banks are going to stay aggressive so they’ve taken away fed cuts this year even if we go into recession. It seems like the market is finally beginning to listen to Powells policy on higher for longer. A very interesting day with low volume and a lot of fear about rates. Earnings...

JB7oh2

All times are Wall Street hours Monday- 2 year note auction 1pm Tuesday- core durable goods 8:30am, conference board (CB) consumer confidence 10am, new home sales 10am, Richmond Manufacturing index 10am Wednesday- 9:30am J Powell speaks at a ECB conference Thursday- Final GDP QoQ, unemployment claims 8:30am Friday- PCE 8:30am I wouldn’t be surprised if we...

JB7oh2

Powell was on the hill today with nothing new to say, his opening statement was the same as the FOMC statement straight cut and paste. Biggest thing is the swaps market is projecting a 67% chance for a rate hike July 26th yields are still inverted. After tomorrow things will find direction for a little bit so Friday should be fun. Unemployment claims and feds...

JB7oh2

We had a nice pullback today looks like the collective is waiting on Wednesday and Thursday testimony on capital hill about monetary policies and how hawkish will Powell be. So in all expect some crazy moves starting at 10am Wall Street time. Keeping it short since there no real prediction on what will be said. But he will have the opportunity to clarify the...