asdf098

asdf098

Emerging Market equities have underperformed the US for the last decade, and has now reached past lows during the dot-com bubble. Looks poised for another reversion in the next 10 years! EM is cheaper (has already fallen mainly due to weaknesses in Chinese equities) DXY likely to weaken in the long-term, which should benefit EM equities. Monthly RSI also seem...

asdf098

If you are long gold miners, juniors seem to be at a better relative position to GDX. Bouncing off of medium-term support (since 2015 gold bull run). Also seeing some bullish divergence on 1W RSI.

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 5/5 LT, 3/5 MT long-term (multi-year) positive near-term (this year): neutral performance of OANDA:XAUUSD relative to OANDA:XAGUSD looks pretty good, but approaching resistance line. also, recently had bullish divergence on RSI-W in mid-2020.

asdf098

Shall cap relative performance to Large cap is showing a great opportunity. REcently we have also seen the small caps valuation is as low as GFC levels, which is another indicator of good long-term buy opportunity. Small caps (IWM) performance to self is not quite as attractive, so be aware. This could simply be an opportunity to do a long-short spread between...

asdf098

recently bouncing off of potential trendline support. RSI is also at very attractive levels. HOWEVER, be aware that dark blue line support has historically been more enduring. Which would be the buy point should we enter recession in the very near future. Nonetheless, a good place to start adding long-term positions. Also, relative performance to US and...

asdf098

EEMA is looking quite promising - the recent drawdown mostly from China fears seem overblown and ripe for reversal. Emerging markets as a whole (EEM) is also more promising relative to US on (1) relative performance and (2) relative valuation standpoint.

asdf098

Some risk in the short term because we are nearing downtrend resistance since 2021. However, long-term looks promising as we did a fake breakdown of 2011 support. China easing with COVID restrictions and loosening crackdown on tech (CQQQ) can also serve as potential fundamental support.

asdf098

As long as we don't hit a recession like in 2007 or in 2020, we are at historical trend support. good place to buy. Invalidated with weekly/monthly close below blue trend line. EFA seems better than Europe as a whole.

asdf098

Conviction: 5/5 Long-term cycles since 1976 shows DXY entering about a decade of negative cycle, ending around 2027-2029. Consistent with money printing / fiscal stimulus / incentive to inflate away the debt. Shows good R:R from this point.

asdf098

Conviction: 5/5 Based on channel since 2014, QUAL is at lower bound of relative performance, and presents a good value if you want similar exposure to SPY with a bit of lower risk. Monthly RSI is also at pretty attractive levels.

asdf098

Small caps looks a bit tired, just hit trend resistance from 2001, and has been on down trend since. Monthly RSI is also showing that we have turned down, which means increased likelihood that we are revisiting 100WMA (golden MA) or lower soon. Monthly RSI might hold at this level and reach to upper trendline again, but R:R ratio is a bit... meh. HOWEVER,...

asdf098

Risk-reward of relative performance points to small caps outperforming large caps in the next few years. HOWEVER, in recessionary bear markets... small caps tend to underperform, so be aware!

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 4/5 This is one of the two breakouts that we've been waiting for since May 2021. Buy on dip (possible retested yesterday already) on the horizontal dash line around 31.81. Need to wait for breakout of resistance line since August 2020 to fully confirm breakout. However, Gold seems to have already broken out... so seems like just a matter of time.

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 4/5 Long-term cup and handle since 2011, looks like ready for completion However, in the short term, price is forming pennant. Currently at support of pennant, could be good entry point. To be more prudent, should probably wait until confirmation of breakout from top of pennant to enter. Considerations Rising yield => rising real yield =>...

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 3/5 May have a better entry point after more breakout from short-term channel (Aug 2020) Main Thesis Bouncing off MT support (2015) Breakout and retest from previous downward resistance (2016) (Blue) Risks RSI-W may breakdown to more attractive levels OR there may be another leg down for a bullish divergence

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Seems to be turning down away from LT (2002) channel resistance. RSI-W also signaling further downside. Looks like there might be an intermediate-term support around -10% away. All in all.. may be a better risk:reward trade once it breaks down from the white support line. Either way, the trend looks negative. If you are interested in Europe,...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Overall still in LT (2009) down channel, so trade is quite risky... you are trading against the trend... HOWEVER: bounced off MT (2018) trend support RSI looks pretty good SPY ourperformance against world is pretty outrageous in the last 2 years, so some mean-reversion is likely Trade duration... 3-5 months. Much better trade is to...

asdf098

Unclear what is going to happen... probably not a good idea to trade this right now. Can trade small position within the channel, although risky to trade against the trend... Bull case: potential bull flag setup good relative value (in terms of performance) to S&P 500 holding peak-price support from 2017 so far better to wait for confirmation of bull...