2year yield(10-02-23)Bullish Flag Pattern We Continue BULLISH(LONG) Above Intraday HIGHS...by sifisomashimbyi114
2 year yield patternThe 2 year treasury yield is a very good predictor of the Fed Funds rate. Since April 2022 the yield has formed a broadening ascending wedge pattern which indicates a potential move down. For the last couple of months the yield has been in a narrow downwind channel. With CPI data coming soon this could trigger a breakout either to the upside or downside which is likely to trigger movement in stocks. A drop in this yield would be bullish for stocks and vice versa.by MrAndroid1
Yields may be set for a big pullback.I think the supports in this broke already. We may just be in a little range here before we see it starting to make a bigger pullback. Can easily get to at least the 76 of the last upswing.Shortby holeyprofit1
US 10 year yield formation relative to SPXThe US10Y is forming an interesting pattern that suggests a move higher is likely. I decided to compare the general trend movement to that of SPX. The green arrows represent my future base case. However, should the US10Y break to the upside of its current pattern now, the blue arrows represent that. The future picture is always fuzzy, but I’m estimating US10Y is around 4.5% and SPX around 3580 in March/April.Longby bgreer0092
SG 10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship gives heads up...A rather uncanny comparison, but some correlation observed... the SG Government Bonds are the next level "risk-free" instrument (perhaps not to all, but it is clearly one of the more robust). Taking the SG10Y and overlay with SPY, some correlated trends are observed... The yellow lines are the trend lines for the SG10Y, and break outs or break downs are triggers. From here, follow the SPY (blue plotted line). Can be seen that when there was a break out of the SG10Y trend line, the SPY is bearish; alternatively, when there was a break down of the SG10Y trend line, the SPY is bullish. Just noted that the SG10Y is just about to break out, so... SPY topped out? Looks like it according to this correlation!by AuguraltraderUpdated 116
SG10Y bonds break outRemember this? Well broken out. MACD supported, and candlestick suggestive of continuation. Equity market pull back imminent. Those buying into SG bonds (a local hot topic these days), you know where this is going...Longby Auguraltrader113
US10Y: Short the next spikeFamiliar pattern for the US10Y as with the support of the 4H MA200 it is repeating the mid December +13.50% rise. In perfect symmetry a new +13.50% rise tops on the Resistance provided by the first Lower High of the down leg, same as the November 13th Lower High. The 1D technicals have just come out of neutrality (RSI = 57.935, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 33.193) and an additional short trigger will be the next time the 4H RSI turns overbought above 75.00. Our short term target is right above the Support (TP = 3.340%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##by InvestingScope5511
EUROBONDSEurobonds have bottomed at 423.6% extension, that supports that wave 3 is over and we are heading to correct wave 4, It is gonna be a sharp and rewarding pullback even on Euro currency pairs, according to the law of alternation. look for buy setups on Euros especially crosses. Longby daniewolfx4
UNITED STATES 10 YEAR TREASURY BONDS. WAVE COUNTA s per the monthly technical analysis, the bonds have offered a nice rally to the upside. The bonds started to pullback causing weakness in the DXY index. The pull back hints further downside to fib 38.2% or 50% for wave 4 before we see further upside. @005fxacademy. Shortby daniewolfx3
US10Y yield to 8%+I know most people don't think this is a possibility, but I think it's highly probable. I think we'll see the US10Y break the recent highs and head to 5.59% as the first target to the upside. Then I think we'll continue the bullish trend and end the bullish move in yields at 8.13%, I think at that point, that's when you'll want to go long risk for the long term. I think shorting the 10yr and 20yr bonds, might be a great trade over the next 6 months. I think the start of the move might take a little bit to play out, but should really gain steam from March onwards. Let's see what happens over the coming months.Longby benjihyam335
US10Y Sell this rally.The US10Y is breaking above the first Falling Resistance after making a Double Bottom on the 1day MA200. Wait for the right level to sell this rally near the second Falling Resistance. Target the bottom of the Falling Wedge. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!Shortby TheCryptagon228
FFR Inversion with 2 Year USTMany believe the Fed kept the Federal Funds Rate (FFR, in orange) too low for too long. But the recent path of hiking has caused the FFR to now get above the 2 year UST yield (in blue) -- a situation that rarely happens, and rarely is a "good" sign for markets. Stay alert. by jay_S_1
US10Y, risk is off.US10Y/1D Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. Reversed US 10 years bonds has been trading in a deep pull-back. The price has started showing some signs of strong bulls, which means that the market might need to price in for higher intrest rates. Aka. Risk is off. Tarde safe, Tarder Leo.by Leo-btm9915
US 10Y Government Bond Initial Weekly Analysis I think it is a great idea at this time to see how the bond market is looking with all the talk about the debt ceiling crisis. It will also give us an idea of where the US dollar can go! Currently, the price action has been rolling over to the downside. I think it best to keep that narrative until we see a conformational move that would change this higher timeframe trend. In my opinion, the most important area that I believe has many traders are focused on is the closet supply area which is also the previous higher low. Evetually, this instrument will liquidate the sellers in this market. Lets keep this one on the list and update throughout the week. Feel free to connect and chat about this instrument. :-) Shortby CandlesofKarmaUpdated 332
The Final Nail in the Coffin for GoldThe final key bearish case I have for gold is real interest rates using the 10 year yield and subtracting core inflation. Historically gold was the must bullish when real rates are negative ( like they are now ), but when real rates went back to positive the marked the top for gold with a large correction. With inflation contracting substantially we should see real positive rates by the summer.Shortby Yogigolf3
2 year yield breakoutUpside breakout from a triangle pattern on the 2 year yield. This is something that if it continues could put a dampener on the stock market rally. That and also the bounce in the DXY.by MrAndroid1
Even if the yield curve REVERTS and long end of treasury yields Even if the yield curve REVERTS and long end of treasury yields rise, we still got some time left for the equities to run higher before #economy falls into #recession. The "REVERT" in 10-2 Spread always led the spike in #unemployment for 6m~1yr. Check out the chart below.by angus57881
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly YieldsI have this question... Why are high yields bad? What is bad? We are in a period of big changes. There are lot's of balances changing, one of them is money. We have just passed (?) the biggest monetary experiment ever (QE) and we are about to enter the successor to that experiment, digital money. Digital money conveniently came about just at the time when hyperinflation became an expected reality. If you talked about hyperinflation 4 years ago, you were crazy, now it is expected (and perhaps actually coming). ... Instinct tells us that the unknown is a threat, rather than an opportunity. Instinct slyly and covertly compels us away from change and progress. ... -Dr. Breen In the center of the stages is the paradigm shift in yields. After decades of consistently lower yields, now we are expecting consistently higher ones. Many (including me) have prejudged themselves into be lie ving that high yields are inherently bad. I cannot conclude into what high yields are bad at. The title suggests that they have 3 faces, good bad and ugly. I can conclude that now, like always throughout history, we are rolling in a cycle. Some things have changed in unpredictable ways. This unorthodox chart shows us that this year, we have lived through something unique. Perhaps this will be the way things move forward. From the charts above I have tried hard to conclude into something. The only thing I have learned is the following: Bonds are the new equities. In QE world, lower yields made more money. How? Money printing and borrowing needs low yields for it to be popular. Immense liquidity bubbled everything and productivity skyrocketed. QE is the fuel of globalism. Equities paid out dividends, so higher equities led to even more money. In QT world, higher yields make more money. How? Money burning and lending needs high yields for it to be profitable. Money makes more money, and every day it makes even more money. Commodity producers (GOLD*PPIACO as an example) and wealthy individuals/corporations/nations can enjoy this new era. QT is the fuel of war. Everything is precious and everyone fights for it. In a globalized world, you could make money by being an intermediate entity. Now to make money you must actually own the resources and money. Rich get richer, and poor get poorer. This is the purchasing power of the consumer dollar. Poor get poorer... Poor get poorer when rich get richer. These charts above are simple to understand and analyze. Down below I will add some of my favorite charts. These charts calculate the value of commodities compared to equities or money supply. Commodity production bull-flags against equities. Commodity production bull-flags against money supply itself. The bull flag is against yields as well. True Production Cost (PPIACO*yields) is bull-flagging (?) PPIACO is used as a historical alternative to USOIL. For some reason, we cannot perform old historical calculations using oil. They show that the commodities prove a big motive for everyone. Especially to those who seek war. Would anyone in their clear mind expect WWIII to be talked about in the 2020s? With the knowledge we have collected throughout all these years, this would be out of the question! Yet, here we are, casually talking about it. Again, changes are happening but we are stuck in a cycle. All we can do about it is to understand where we are, and not constantly deceive ourselves and others into thinking otherwise. So there is a clear benefit into just realizing where we are, it is not financial profit, it is speaking truth. Conclusion? This is a zero-sum game for consumers. Also, with bonds we are committing hubris. Bonds is a mechanism that helps money itself make more money. Have you heard about the Ancient Greeks? They talked about the fact that when money makes money, it is Hubris (something like sin, only worse). Equities gave more output than there was input, if someone includes long-term dividends. You working and making money is not Hubris (according to Ancient Greeks). Making a system which enables money to make money, then you commit Hubris. Consistently higher yields will help money make even more money. Equities are facing Nemesis (compared to bonds). Bonds have just now committed Hubris. There may be many years until they face Nemesis as well. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. This movie "good bad ugly" was released in 1966, a period financially similar to the one we live now.by akikostasUpdated 226
We bounce and most claim a bull market alreadySo you think we entered a V shape bull market? Lets just forget we have unsustainable amounts of debt, we gone from QE to QT and from rates at zero to world record speed increases making a 40 year long us10y breakout.Shortby realSatoshiNakamoto5
Uk bonds trend upUk bonds has showed a good trend up.. from a long term trend down.... time to improve... upULongby diegotrader99880
US10Y : What the Market is saying.The above chart explains. There were 2 important events this week, the Fed raising 25bps and also the BLS delivering a 'spectacular' jobs report. So what is the market reaction and what is the market actually thinking??? I think a simple look at the yield can tell us much. We can use it to guide our trading for the coming week. Good luck. P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.by i_am_siew224
The next rate cycle is going to be inflationary...We will have a deflationary crisis before super inflationary crisis. During the upcoming rate cycle we will have inflation going up at the same time as rates. Welcome to a new world. At least in the US. I've been saying this for years, higher rates only compensate inflation it doesn't fight inflation. Longby BigPippinSpendingGs2
Are yields about to spike again?Yields saw a massive turn to the upside after the latest job report number coming in red hot. Showing the US labor force is a juggernaut. If we see this Bullish consolidation break to the upside this implies interest rates are going much higher. If this pattern comes to fruition and fulfills it upside targets, this would also imply the likely catalyst that could spike yields even more could be a hot CPI number or additional Labor data. Longby Trading-Capital1