Bat pattern US10Y US10Y taking a breather before the next leg up. Its Spy tern . Lets go!by AltcoinGem1
Interest rates - Bond yields... Are they really going higher?Recently the market's expectation for the Fed Funds Rate peaking around 5% and then coming down at the end of Q4 2023 changed, with the market now seeing rates going to 5.5%. Many investors/analysts are discussing bond yields heading to 6% and staying higher for longer. However, is that going to happen? What is sentiment telling us right now? What is data indicating? If rates keep going up, what does this mean for other risk assets? Sentiment right now seems to be quite bullish on yields (bearish on bonds). We are probably near a short-term top for bond yields, and I think this Fed hike may be the last one. The reason is that in Q3-Q4, we started seeing an actual economic deceleration, and inflation dropped significantly. In January, we had some weird data that might have to do with seasonality and adjustments on how inflation is calculated. The critical thing to note here is that rising interest rates act with long and variable lags and that the drop in inflation since July 2022 was caused by factors irrelevant to interest rate hikes. So let's take things from the beginning... Since Covid hit, we have seen tectonic shifts in markets. Many things changed in the global economy, which was already in bad shape. It's unlikely that inflation will be contained for a long time, given that we are at the end of the debt cycle, the end of globalization, we are in a war cycle, we are at war against the climate, and the labor market is changing rapidly. Therefore, bonds will likely substantially underperform inflation in the next decade. In 2020 and 2021, fiscal policy was heavily used over monetary policy, and we still feel the effects of those policies and the aftereffects of Covid. US monetary policy started shifting in March 2022, when the Fed began hiking rates and Quantitative tightening in July. Hence the changes in monetary policy couldn't have affected markets, as it takes more than 12 months for changes like this to have any effect. Of course, we also had the Russian invasion, which caused a commodity spike, and we had Europe and the US spending a lot on Ukraine and war equipment broadly. Then the relationship between US and China started worsening, while China was under lockdown and only started reopening in December - January. The global economy is in terrible shape and will get into a steep recession eventually. Some data make it look strong at times, but it isn't. I think the Fed is looking and acting in the worst possible way, and it's trapped. At the moment, markets are afloat mainly because of human ingenuity, past fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the actions of Central banks like the BoJ, HKMA, and PBoC, as well as the BoE and ECB having some form of QE going on, while the Fed & US treasury is increasing market liquidity by draining the TGA, creating T-bills and bank reserves. It's unclear what will happen when all the interest rate hikes start affecting the economy, but Central banks and Governments will resume supporting markets and the economy. There are several tricks they can implement before they start cutting rates or continuing QE, or doing Yield Curve Control, but ultimately they will get to that point. Now finally, let's get to the charts! TLT / UB look like they are bottoming here. Swept the lows but closed slightly above them. Double top and significant gaps are higher, so that's where I think it's headed. I don't want to say that we will go massively lower, but for now, I treat this as a range, and I don't want to let my view that inflation will come down affect me. My target is the range highs and nothing more. SHY looks like it capitulated and filled a double gap (partially) to the downside. That double gap occurred near the bottom, but now we have a massive double gap open to the upside, telling me it could go higher. Both that and TLT tell me yields down (bonds up)! Short-term yields have been increasing, with US 2y getting near 5%. Maybe that's the psychological level everyone thinks will break easily, but it doesn't. The majority is eyeing 6%. Perhaps we do a slight break above 5% on the 2y, then fall quickly below it. The average bond yield (random average) is at 4.5%, it also made a new high, but this could be a trap. I am not seeing much strength here. The 10y, which I used as the base chart for today, reaches a critical level where the major correction to the downside began and has found some resistance there. Finally, I wanted to discuss a few currencies and some overall observations. EURUSD and GBP are at support but looking weak. I can see how they could have one last dip and then higher, but I don't want to see them go much lower from here. USDJPY and USDCNH are trading higher, with USDJPY being 10% lower from where it peaked. The interest rate differential was the same as now or lower, so something is happening here. Maybe rates are peaking? Maybe the interventions from CBs and Govs are working? Stocks are also much higher than back then, and they don't look like they will go down. Both pairs seem to be back in an uptrend which seems close to peaking. Based on how their charts look, I don't think the USD will keep strengthening, which is telling me that something big has shifted in markets, which is bullish risk assets, and potentially bearish on bonds yields. Shortby BitcoinMacro111
US02Y - US01YThis shows you that the market still has a rate cut priced in for next year. I'll be a lot more bullish on the market if they price this out. Inflation is here to stay, and so are high interest rates. The market can still go up though, but as I said earlier, bonds should not be going up.by hungry_hippoUpdated 4413
Possible bullish impulse move on the 2 Yr.Bull flag + bullish continuation on the momentum osculators + stocks falling + dollar finding bottomLongby farmtrader15Updated 2
Higher Yields May Cause Bigger Correction On DXYHigher yields may cause a bigger correction on DXY, as yields can be still looking for wave 5 by Elliott wave theory. Yields higher, USD strong, stocks down. Risk-off flows may not be over just yet if yields are in fifth wave. However, when yields will make new high and then top after 5th, thats when DXY can complete B/2 rally, with a lower high, when focus will shift away from US to other CB. However, of course, wave 4 on yields can get more complex if current trendline support is broken, so wave B/2 on DXY may take more time to unfold. Gregaby ew-forecast1116
Yield Curve InversionThe chart above is a yearly chart of the ratio of the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) to the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y). The chart is meant to highlight how extreme the yield curve inversion is getting. Typically a yield curve inversion is indicative of an impending recession. Usually, the 10-year treasury should have a higher yield than the 2-year treasury since there is more risk involved when you invest in a longer-term treasury. Just recently, the 10-year treasury yield has reached a record low ratio of only about 85% of the 2-year treasury yield. In other words, investors are being compensated less for taking more risk. As the chart below shows, the rate of change (on a quarterly basis) in the 2-year Treasury yield has been parabolic. Below is the rate of change (on a quarterly basis) in the 10-year treasury which is typically more stable than the rate of change seen in shorter-term treasuries. The chart shows that the 10-year treasury yields have also been moving up at an unprecedented quarterly rate of change. Many analysts look to an inversion of the 10-year yield with the 3-month yield, which has not yet occurred. The failure of the 10-year yield to invert relative to the 3-month yield is likely due to the unprecedented rate of change in the 10-year yield, which has historically remained relatively stable. If the 10-year yield is moving up at a higher rate of change than the 3-month yield, this can delay or prevent an inversion altogether. Check out my analysis from July for a more in-depth discussion on why the failure (or delay) of the 10-year yield to invert to the 3-month yield might be signaling that we've entered into a new supercycle, in which higher yields may continue for the long term: by SpyMasterTradesUpdated 222256
Us rates back trens upDue to inflationary pressure rates in the usa is getting stronger now.. so its trend up. Bad for stocks Longby diegotrader99885
1 2 & 10 Year yield seem to be toppish short term, $VIX in rangeπ¨#yields look to be toppingπ¨ Things are FALLING into place! Been posting on $DJI & $BTC RANGES Risk reward was great late last week & on this dip (focusing on DOW JONES ATM) $VIX staying 18-23 is ok Adding more $ on dips #stocks #cryptoby ROYAL_OAK_INC3
US10Y Rejection cluster. Targeting the 1D MA200 again.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current levels and the fact that it has failed to break higher in the last five 1D candles, make it a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also on such a rejection junction, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.510%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE π, FOLLOW β , SHARE π and COMMENT β if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ π π π π π πShortby TradingShot1112
US 10 YEAR YIELDS (LONG ANALYSIS)The US 10 Year Yield is getting ready for another move to the upside, which shows us that the current falling wedge pattern it is correcting inside of, is considered Wave 4 of the Elliot Wave theory. I am expecting this to rocket up for the time being, alongside the Dollar Index. US10Y - DXY = Positive Correlation US10Y - XAUUSD = Negative CorrelationLongby BA_InvestmentsUpdated 448
Viet Nam Rate vs Bond 10Y 2ybond interest rate and sbv interest rate 2 year bond interest rate 10 year bond interest rateby chimcut1651
Bund yields going higher again?This is one of the patterns I have been looking at the last few months. If it is playing out Bunds are heading towards 3%. Longby WVS_StockscreenUpdated 112
US10Y : Going UP - WHY???Bond yield has been going up these past few days. What is happening? Many would think that this is because of recent events like the 'hot' jobs market and sticky headline inflation which may cause the Fed to continue hiking rates - higher/longer. Sounds plausible??? Maybe. It may look like the MARKET is now going along with the Fed instead of disagreeing with it earlier by driving yield down. Note that inflation expectation is FALLING. There is ONE consequence of a HIGHER yield. ASSET price will come down. The stock market and home prices will CRASH. Already the country's finances is in a BAD shape. US is expected to pay up to $1T in interest alone. The consumer is already drowning in debt as evidence by the higher credit card debt at a time when interest is also a an all time HIGH. Both country and people may not last long holding up their finances. So what is causing yield to rise? One third of US DEBT outstanding is maturing this year. That is nearly $7T. And of the $7T, roughly $4T matures in the first 4 months of 2023. Since all these debt needs to be roll-over, this causes an increase in supply which means HIGHER YIELD!!! This is crazy. With high yield, asset price will fall which leads to RECESSION. With recession, tax revenue will fall which will require US to borrow more. All these is happening while the Fed is doing QT!!! So what kind of landing are we expecting? It is definitely not a SOFT landing. It is also not going to be a HARD landing. In my opinion, when debt is so HIGH, both public and private, it is going to be a CRASH LANDING. The consequence for the US and the entire world is devastating. Good luck to us all. by i_am_siewUpdated 777
US10Y - ST Pullback in Yield Ahead? Charted is a proposed price pathway for the 10yr T Bonds. I'm looking for an easing in yield soon... in the 4.125 area (.786 Fib level) specifically, sometime in early March. This will represent the top of the b wave of wave 4 off the Aug. 2020 low. This expectation flies in the face of recently released inflation related news. As such my parameters are well defined here. A move beyond the afore mentioned yield will make me reassess the trade. I'm seeing correlated markets showing signs of synergy with the expected outcome of this move. Specifically I am expecting a move up in oil, technical ST pullback in DXY and a technical bounce in gold...which will fail and complete a fantastic short set-up. See my Gold idea... by oliverrathbun224
us rates trend downUs rates are getting weaker and showing that rates might be at least peak and need correction.. but just follow trend.. not predicting it.Shortby diegotrader9988Updated 444
π₯ US Bond Yields Suggest More Interest Rate Hikes: BEARISH π¨The US 2-Year bond yields are important because they tell us how much returns an investor will get by lending his money to the government. In periods of higher economic risk, investors demand higher returns. Thus, the height of the bond yields can be used to determine whether we're in an economically risky period or not. As seen on the chart, once the 2-year yield starts increasing, the FED will increase the interest rates. Higher interest rates are BEARISH for the markets. With the 2-year yields making a new high recently, it suggests that the FED will need to increase the interest rates further. Is the current 25 basis points enough to tame inflation and market risk? Certainly not if the yields will keep like this. If the yield will keep on rising there's a decent probability that stocks will continue to go down. If so, crypto will likely follow. For now there's little reason to believe that we're going to make new bear-market lows, but once stocks will really start selling off this probability will increase. Will monitor.Shortby FieryTrading4415
EURBUND 20% appreciation expected Probability: 37% Aggressive pivot: 132.28 Conservative pivot 128.20 Lowest point (redline): 126.48 Minimum Target: 153.23 Target2: 167.93 Note : prediction will be invalid if target 1 is achieved before the setup is triggeredby LyzerrUpdated 3
US 10Y Bond - Correction lowerPrice did not do an impulse from Oct 2022, so we are in a complex correction. Targetting a move to 3.4 for now. Shortby QuercusTrading111
US10Y - TLT Part 2Unfortunately this website won't go past 20 years for 30Y yields, so I'm posting 10Y Anyways, the notion that the Fed is done at 5% is pure fallacy. We're seeing inflation we haven't seen since the 80's, and a lot of it is structural. Aside from labor shortage and Russian oil, we have way too much deficit spending by the government and the Fed balance sheet exploded during the COVID QE. Having taken out college loans at 10% interest, I wouldn't be surprised at all if yields went above 10%. People pegging the peak at 5 or 6% are gonna be in for a freakin' shock. I also expect rates to stay high until the Fed balance sheet comes back down, and we're talking 10 years or so because they're under water on all of the MBS they hold. That doesn't mean the stock market has to go down though, the stock market went up in that era aside from the '87 crash. Focus in inflation trades, stay away from bonds, especially TLT, lol. Note: I realize TLT is 20Y+, but no historical charts available for anything besides 10Yby hungry_hippoUpdated 121217
Fading Bonds rally Long US10Year Yield / Short TY Future fading the YTD bond rally driven by Central Banks Pivot hope misread by markets, it seems that the short positioning has exacerbated the buying so far this year. Things should start to normalise into month end and ahead of FED/ ECB meetings in February. Short US10Y Future - Expect the Yield rise by 20bpsLongby ArisopeCapitalUpdated 223
US 02Y possible black swan for stocksUS 02Y is close to breakout from the bull flag. After reaching the top, the price of 2 y did consolidate but never dropped hard. After consolidation on this level, it seems it's ready to break out of the bull flag which would be very bullish for 2 Y but bearish for the market as a whole. Remember, even though a lot of retail traders follow FERD, they should follow 2 Y yield as that is what FED and Powel followed. FED is much smaller than the bond market, and the interest rate on the 2-year bond is something that is important for FED. Also one of the main problems for retail traders is most of them don't follow yield inversion which is now at a huge level. Meaning the interest rate is now higher for a 1 or 2-year bond than on 10 or 30 which is insane and is a sign of huge money indicating something big will break out soon. Every yield inversion till now finished with massive stock collapsing, so will likely now too. With the breakout of the bull flag, there would be a trigger possibility for 2 y to retest highs which would mean the FED fund rate must go much more than 5% which would be very bullish for US Dollar/DXY and very bearish for stock, crypto, and gold and silver/ commodities as a whole. A good thing would be that all would have pressure on inflation which we all need at this moment. by Consistent_TradesUpdated 333
US10Y, XAUUSD AND DXY CONFLUENCE Hi trader The xauusd is trying support and the us10yr is testing previous resistance, but the dxy is already in a breakout phase, so guess? :) My trading strategy isn't intended to be used as a signal service. It's a process of gaining knowledge of market structure and improving my trading abilities. Like and subscribe and happy trading to allby mytw0centsUpdated 223
US10Y SELLWelcome to my account. There is a high probability that the market will go down. With a strong model formation. Double button. He also made the area retest twice. The price fails to breach the broken resistance 3.900. I think the price will be negative over time. And we see its price is 3500. In the first stage Shortby inv_market094