US 02Y possible black swan for stocks

US 02Y is close to breakout from the bull flag. After reaching the top, the price of 2 y did consolidate but never dropped hard. After consolidation on this level, it seems it's ready to break out of the bull flag which would be very bullish for 2 Y but bearish for the market as a whole. Remember, even though a lot of retail traders follow FERD, they should follow 2 Y yield as that is what FED and Powel followed. FED is much smaller than the bond market, and the interest rate on the 2-year bond is something that is important for FED.

Also one of the main problems for retail traders is most of them don't follow yield inversion which is now at a huge level. Meaning the interest rate is now higher for a 1 or 2-year bond than on 10 or 30 which is insane and is a sign of huge money indicating something big will break out soon. Every yield inversion till now finished with massive stock collapsing, so will likely now too.

With the breakout of the bull flag, there would be a trigger possibility for 2 y to retest highs which would mean the FED fund rate must go much more than 5% which would be very bullish for US Dollar/DXY and very bearish for stock, crypto, and gold and silver/ commodities as a whole.

A good thing would be that all would have pressure on inflation which we all need at this moment.

Comment:

warning warning, sure enough, it is breaking out. We could see a retest of highs which would mean the FED will continue to rise FED fund rate.
Good luck

Comment:

Told you, guys. Always trust the bond market as it is several times bigger than stock and crypto together. This is not good, not good at all.
Btw 1 yr is already above 5%