hermes_trisme

hermes_trisme Updated 

Last week marked some of the most unclear price action we've seen. Starting on Tuesday, sellers gradually took control from buyers, but most of the action occurred during extended hours (meaning on VERY low volume). On Friday, sellers finally acted during regular trading hours and attacked the market right from the open. However, it seems buyers were only...

hermes_trisme Updated 

Last week was marked with indecision. Market was moving in a narrow range while Buyers were waiting for FOMC ad NVDIA’s earnings. After receiving positive confirmation (FOMC neutral, earnings good) market tried to go higher but found no support from large players. Sellers took advantage of the weakness and dropped price, clearing many weak longs established in the...

hermes_trisme Updated 

The last bullish move was quite strong, with the price moving above a large consolidation zone from March to April. Now, we have something that looks like a bull flag—the price is crawling slowly down, finding some support near the consolidation POC. This is a very tempting opportunity to enter a LONG position with a potential upside of 15% or more. However, it is...

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Market closed strongly last week after reaching a new historical high. There was some sluggish consolidation on Thursday-Friday but near end of Friday trading hours, bulls put end to it by setting hourly higher low. Friday closed within Thursday’s range after a failed break-out, which is a very bullish signal. Currently, we have full alignment on all major...

hermes_trisme Updated 

After confirmation of control in the first days of May, bulls enjoyed their dominance. The market opened with a gap up on Monday, rallied throughout the entire week, and closed very strongly within the top value area. There was some profit-taking on Monday, but sellers were not able to push the price even below the previous day's high. At this stage, there are no...

hermes_trisme Updated 

The strong close last week indicates a shift in control to the buyers. They managed to close above the previous week’s high, establishing a weekly higher low and confirming the daily uptrend. Currently, the bulls have control across all key timeframes: the price is trending upward on the hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The only challenge they face is on...

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hermes_trisme

In this video I explain how to use RSI (Relative Strength Index) to make trading decisions. You'll learn how to properly use RSI oversold condition, combining low timeframe price action signals with high level context analysis. Besides of explaining three different strategies (the bad, the good and even better) I'll do back-testing on historical data to...

hermes_trisme Updated 

Last week, using oversold bounce, buyers attempted to regain control over the price. Their effort was somewhat successful, as they managed to establish both a higher low and a higher high on the daily chart. However, they failed to set a weekly low, which was a challenging task given the magnitude of the previous week's range. This indicates that bears still...

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Last week, sellers firmly controlled the market. Buyers attempted to defend March's low, but the bears left them no chance. Prices consistently declined for six consecutive days, with the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) appearing even more bearish. We are now approaching a critical juncture, which presents a significant opportunity for buyers to take a stand....

hermes_trisme Updated 

At the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers. It is also notable that if we look at the futures...

hermes_trisme Updated 

Bullish Context: Monthly uptrend, weekly uptrend Price Position: Near last month low Pattern: price has shaped daily uptrend (higher low and higher high); weekly higher low is set This is an opportunity for LONG play with profit target near previous month high. In order for this setup to work price must first break through synthetic diagonal resistance; in...

hermes_trisme Updated 

Bullish context: weekly uptrend Price position: near last weekly trend low Pattern: four consecutive red days with little upthrust (progression of lows) It looks like previous weekly consolidation area is providing support, and bears are too exhausted to break through it now. This provides an opportunity for a long play. An example of possible trade is shown...

hermes_trisme Updated 

Bulls defended the weekly low and made a convincing breakout yesterday. This is a powerful statement, although buyers have not yet proven their control. To do that, they must first establish a weekly higher low, which is likely to happen next week (of course, we need to monitor how things develop). This presents a great opportunity for a long play, but buyers...

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Ethereum is trying to set weekly higher low (we're still in a weekly uptrend, setting weekly higher low is strong signal of trend continuation). It failed one time (last week of March) but now it has better chance of accomplishing it. While it opens opportunity for a LONG play we should recognize that there was quite aggressive selling in the middle of March....

hermes_trisme Updated 

Last week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as...

hermes_trisme Updated 

Last week began with bearish consolidation, which was short-lived. The bulls quickly regained control, established a daily higher low, and broke through the previous week's resistance at 524.1 . Although the breakout was not very strong, it was still meaningful. The March close was very strong, posting a +3% gain, and both weekly and daily charts are indicating...

hermes_trisme

BTC has set weekly lower high, which technically signals possible weekly trend reversal. A few things to consider though: 1. The week has not closed yet. While the probability of outside weekly bar is low, it is not impossible 2. Downtrend is far from being confirmed. Bears must break through 60,700 and then 59,500 to launch monthly consolidation. So far price...

hermes_trisme Updated 

All major sectors are strong, confirming SPX strength. There are minor signs of weakness on some charts but nothing serious yet.