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Simple analysis of the last three cycle bottoms. Four-year-cycle theorists will tell you we're right on track for a big bull run to begin at the start of 2024. Each of the last three bear market sell-offs has lasted approximately a year before bottoming out. Followed by a period of consolidation and a retest of the previous support/resistance. That's where we're...

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Weekly RSI is approaching 30 again. Historically, this has signaled the cycle bottom . Whether you consider this a 4-year-cycle bottom, or a local bottom within a mega cycle , it doesn't really matter. All that matters is that a bullish reversal is just around the corner, and we likely won't see another buying opportunity like this for a few years. Could price...

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Last April I published a simple breakdown of the BTC bear market reversal structure: Given this structure, I'm expecting a local top to form around $49-50k where margin buying pressure is likely to subside, followed by a sharp dip to retest the prior support/resistance in the low to mid $30k range. After that, bulls will be off to the races for a major run....

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Remember when bitcoin made you rich over night? Unfortunately for BTC maximalists, those days might be history. Fact: Each of the last 3 bull runs has been approximately 19% of its predecessor. The last bull run ($3124 to $69K) was approximately 22.09x. What's 19% of 22.09x? A measly 4.2x. So, if we assume the bottom is around $17.6k, the next top projects...

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It's been almost 8 months since I posted about the critical resistance here ($1750-$1800), which price has failed to break through on a number of occasions since. Feels like this time might be different. Enjoy the show.

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Since publishing the Harmonic Pattern Detection, Prediction, and Backtesting Tool , I'm constantly asked if it "repaints". For some reason, people have this deep fear of repainting, as if any indicator that repaints is some evil entity created by the devil himself, sent to earth to trick you into making bad trades. In fact I'm convinced that those most obsessed...

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Something interesting that was picked up on my new harmonics indicator. Fairly strong potential bearish shark is forming, with XA and BC retracement levels (4767.36 and 4840.53, respectively) in confluence with the ATH resistance zone. If this were to play out, we could see a high probability double-top unfold in early 2023. But that's a big "if". I still...

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If I had to choose one (and only one) indicator to use for the rest of my life, it would most certainly be the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Anyone who's spent more than 30 seconds on TradingView understands, in the most basic sense, that RSI indicates when an asset is over- or undervalued (overbought or oversold). But this delicious little oscillator can do a...

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Normally I find the stock market tedious, but if you're looking for a robust financial plan, understanding it is kind of important. The nearly 25% decline over the first half of 2022 seemed like an excellent buying opportunity (and likely was), but the macro picture suggests the market is still way overvalued against a 70+ year trend. While this exponential...

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Ever play that game "Red light, green light"? So has bitcoin. Tether dominance has been oscillating somewhat predictably within a rising channel for the past several years. And the upper and lower bounds of this channel can foreshadow bitcoin's macro price movement. Notice what happens when dominance reaches the top of the channel - green light! BTC sprints...

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As I mentioned on my last post, higher TF analysis suggests resistance at the $1750-$1800 level is strong, and this rising wedge is more evidence that price may be ready to take a dip. Should be an easy one for you swing traders out there. If I were trading this, I would wait for price to break below the bottom of the wedge though before pulling the trigger...

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Well, the bearish scenario played out since I last looked at ADA back in February, and we saw the predicted drop to around $0.40 -- a hefty 88% retracement from the ATH. I was buying at $1, so you can bet I'm buying here too! Weekly RSI has bottomed out at 30 (an all time low), and low TF structure leads me to believe we might be heading for a retest of the...

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ETH has been looking particularly strong throughout this relief rally, but I'm expecting resistance around $1750-$1800. This is a strong historic support/resistance level, and we can expect short pressure to pick up and long pressure to drop off substantially here. So a break above this level would tell me the bulls are back firmly in control. It's also worth...

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It's no secret that bitcoin's returns are diminishing, and there's no better way to represent a decaying rate of growth over time than a logarithmic regression curve. I'll reserve my opinions for now and keep this post objective, but I think this chart is worth sharing. Make of it what you will. I plotted four log regression curves and traced them with the curve...

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Seeing more signs of bottoming out as price is steadily breaking downtrend lines, and a massive decision is imminent. Weekly RSI dipped to 36 where we saw the 2018, 2019 and 2020 lows, and divergence is looking bullish. For the long-term investor, I think the risk/reward favors longs, even in a bear market scenario. For the short-term swing trader, I think the...

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With a near-perfect bounce at the 2x short pressure threshold , we have yet another example of margin pressure predicting a local bottom. With this bottom we're also seeing some positive signs on the RSI: (1) Downtrend resistance turned to support (2) Bullish hidden divergence We've also finally seen price break above the downtrend line. Many were calling...

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Sure, fundamentals and whales drive the big-picture price action in this market. Everyone knows that. But what drives short term swings and intermediate price action? Margin traders. I'm not the kind of degenerate that trades on leverage, but it sure helps to think like one.

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For experienced traders, this will be obvious. But for the casual investor, this is the simplest way to determine when to buy bitcoin. In fact, I would say it's as close to a "sure thing" as you will find in the crypto market. You can see that the last two cycle bottoms occurred when weekly RSI dipped below 30. While there's no guarantee that RSI will dip to 30...