trader_investr

trader_investr

I wrote the paragraph below earlier today in response to a Barron's article : On my 'top chip list' for '23, I have a tie between AMD and QCOM...big fan of both! And I think there's some similarity to their stock's plights, though they traffic in different chip spaces. AMD is tagged as a "PC chip" company and gets dragged down by the post-Covid cliff-dive of PC...

trader_investr

In addition to taking individual positions in biotech co's, usually after meeting management in NDRs, I also play the sector using ETFs, sometimes XBI and IBB, and sometimes FBT. The equal dollar weighting of FBT to match the underlying index diversifies the portfolio relative to a market-cap etf that would have more eggs in the bigger names w/large caps. The...

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An old friend who recently touched base asked me what I think of the markets here. I told him I'll tell him what I think of the markets, but more importantly, I will tell him what the market thinks of the markets! And those are two different things! First me: I think equities are overvalued by a significant degree. Refinitiv, in their report dated 12/2/22,...

trader_investr

I recently wrote a note on NatGas (ng) in response to a Barron's article that highlighted analyst calls for $3 ng in 2023 (from current $6-ish) levels. In sum, I took the view that supply/demand fundamentals lean the other way, and while current supplies of NG are ample largely due to impediments to exporting due to the explosion at an LNG export facility...

trader_investr

After years of 'conglomeratizing' (is that a word??) and turning itself into a combo phone, media, tech, content & communications company, T found itself being lots of things to lots of people but ultimately not being enough of anything to anyone! Couple that with tons of debt to pay for all that 'pac-man'ing of businesses and you get the AT&T of not too long ago...

trader_investr

This is a follow up to my recently written note on COST. The company reports earnings tonight after the close. The November same-store-sales data released on 12/1/22 rattled markets when it came in below expectations and reinforced those who feared that COST's strong sales throughout '22 were driven largely by the cheaper gasoline available at COST stores. ...

trader_investr

Wheat has had a rough ride since the historic highs reached in March, and now is at levels that will test a "swing support" zone that has held several times in the past year. In summarizing this past week's wheat action, Total Farm Marketing noted (www.totalfarmmarketing.com) Wheat Prices Lower for the Week December CBOT wheat futures shed 10-1/2 cents this week...

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After what felt like a lifetime of zero-to-near-zero interest rates, the fixed income markets are finally back on the radar screen offering yields that, albeit still not covering current inflation levels, are nonetheless a relatively reasonable return given the risk-reward trade-off vs equities. Short-term TBills such as 3mth, 6mth, 9mth and 1yr bills all in the...

trader_investr

COST reported same-store-sales (sss) for Nov that fell short of expectations, largely on consumer spending shifts away from electronics (high margins) and more towards staples and necessities (food...relatively low margins). COST has been a 'recession proof' favorite of the market for some time which makes today's disappointment likely to meet with continued...

trader_investr

Back to back announcements of good news. This is a relatively new one for me in this space, but the news (in links below) of the NIH grant followed by the FDA approval of an additional indication will make following today's stock-price-action of interest! www.scynexis.com www.scynexis.com (NOTE: NOT ADVICE IN ANYWAY!! JUST FOOD FOR THOUGHT AND DISCUSSION!!)

trader_investr

NatGas going to $10 was one of the...wait for it.....'safest bets' that analysts were calling for just a few months ago. Europe's energy crisis ignited fears of a global contagion that all but ensured that all forms of energy would soar. So what went wrong? Wise ng companies used every opportunity to buy ng and add to storage ahead of the start of winter. ...

trader_investr

A quick read of analyst reports on STZ will leave one with mostly bullish soundbites such as 'recession proof', 'premium brands', 'high margins', 'strong cashflow', etc. All true! It does seem to be that even in a recession, people are not only loath to limit their drinking, but in fact, they tend to drink more! So, enter STZ with its premium brands and...

trader_investr

Hard to imagine buying an auto stock at a time of rising recession fears, higher (and likely even higher) interest rates, and growing geopolitical tensions. But many analysts believe GM's push into the EV space with a focus on vertically integrating the battery and precious metal feedstocks required to power these vehicles will put them in the sweet spot ahead of...

trader_investr

Reverse H & S pattern?? Neckline in play currently as key support and possible bounce-point from which lift-off could revisit earlier-'22 highs....or not.... Fundamentals reflect a tug of war between 'demand destruction due to China shutdown and global recession' vs 'supply inadequacy due to weather related subpar crops'. FWIW, I'm long call...

trader_investr

I'm eager to hear thoughts on this topic. The 'text' box in the chart says it all. JPY continues to be the 'safe haven' currency in market-mayhem episodes, just like we're seeing today as the equity markets crater. Add to that the 'ol "carry trade" effect...Yen has been the currency of choice for carry-traders, borrowing in Yen at near zero interest rates (NZIR)...

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Last Friday’s price action certainly ignited calls of a ‘bottom’ in this market rout that started in earnest in Nov 2021. But as they say, ‘not so fast’! Gina Martin Adams, Chief Equity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence noted in a recent tweet that “all of the major bottoms since 2009 occurred with less than 5% of the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day moving...

trader_investr

Two key points highlighted on the chart: The first, never forget the distinction between an event or outcome that 'probably' won't happen, vs one that 'possibly' could happen!! The lesson of the NEGATIVE PRICED OIL during the start of the Covid crisis should never be forgotten. The idea that oil storage would be at full capacity and that 'longs' in the oil...

trader_investr Updated 

BOJ "keep rates near zero" policy battered the JPY! So much so, that despite the massive weakening of the EUR vs the USD, EUR/JPY has still climbed to 'nose-bleed' highs! Some argue that the BOJ will entertain higher inflation for an extended period of time in order to make sure that economic growth, dormant for decades, finally launches. But others argue that...