Vixtine

Vixtine

I still have a hard time believing the US will ultimately see a soft landing from the most aggressive rate hiking event in history...the lag effect will prevail in due time. Ask yourself this...If the US economy is so great & resilient then why do the people in power need to deficit spend, especially given we are at maximum employment? Just makes zero sense...

Vixtine Updated 

Bullish narratives I've seen published online over the last couple of years: 1. Gold is a hedge against inflation 2. BRICS Currency-it will be backed by gold 3. China is hoarding gold 4. Central banks are gobbling up gold Given all these narratives, one would think gold has some pretty strong tailwinds yet it has had 3 breakout failures since these narratives...

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I've been watching AMC for a couple of weeks thinking to myself...I bet the Taylor & Beyonce Concert films will bring some much needed love & cash to this dying theater chain. So a "bet" with myself is what I am taking on this morning based upon the following analysis: Positives: Yesterdays price cut right through the daily Tenkan Sen (thick red line) and closed...

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I've seen some trader's theorize the last couple of years that we will have another "roaring 20's" style stock market during the 2020's-2030's. If you compare the early 1900's chart, using a 6 month timeframe, to today's chart you would actually theorize that we are at the end of the "roaring" era. Since bottoming in 2009 we have "roared" up almost...

Vixtine Updated 

Above is the yearly chart for SPX from inception in 1957...the last 3 yearly candles (2021, 2022 & 2023) look nothing like its past history. The red dotted lines are closing HIGHS followed by weakness year/s. Typically year 3, after a weakness year, either breaks out OR we are still in bear mode. So we are in unchartered territory right now...neither the bulls...

Vixtine Updated 

Since 1974 Disney has always made a "yearly" higher low as depicted by the red hash marks on this chart. In 2022 it closed the year below the previous yearly "pullback low"...yikes!!! Could Disney be an early warning sign of what is to come over the next 10 years for the US stock market? It is a 1900's quintessential "American" company. Anyone looking to add...

Vixtine Updated 

Many traders often overlook the Dow. IMO it is perhaps one of the most important charts to be following, especially on a yearly basis. It is "the index" used to gauge the overall performance of the U.S. stock market. So as the year comes to an end I've started to analyze yearly charts and found this simplistic analysis of the Dow to be helpful so thought I'd...

Vixtine Updated 

Since the successful breakout of the March 2000 ATH back in Jan 2017; NDX has seen some possible breakout failures however those failures where short lived as seen in the above chart. The failures did occur PRIOR to reaching the psychological level of 10K however those failures never caused a breakdown of a previous low...so in essence it's a great chart showing...

Vixtine Updated 

So many bulls and bears are stating their cases on social media as to whether or not a bottom is in so I thought I'd take some time today to examine what a daily bottoming process looks like using SPX. Standard & Poor's 500 was created in 1957 and since then it has gone through 9 bear markets (Defined as a GREATER THAN 20% decline on a CLOSING basis). 2022...

Vixtine Updated 

The SPX consolidation around the orange downtrend line is confusing every chartist out there for good reason. Why-because it is giving off conflicting signals and history really isn't much of a guide. Typically when you draw a monthly downtrend line using 3-6 months of a trend line and then you have an monthly open or close ABOVE the downtrend line (orange line...

Vixtine Updated 

Residential housing is a huge asset class so I wanted to analyze it in simplistic format. I broke up this chart showing the period during the mid-1960's through early 1980's when inflation & interest rates took off and the period during the 40 year long downtrend in interest rates; which ended a couple of years ago. So we have another break in this chart that...

Vixtine Updated 

Do you really need to ask if interest rates have topped out? Head & Shoulders patterns at tops and bottoms are generally spot on...this Inverse H&S pattern occurred at a bottom, clearly broke out from the neckline and just wants 5%...at a minimum. "Don't fight the Fed" The Fed is not going to pivot to the downside anytime soon...why would they? What makes anyone...

Vixtine Updated 

A recession is not bullish for the overall market so studying how the civilian unemployment rate behaves before a recession hits should help tune out any and all noise from talking heads. The red shaded areas in the above chart shows past recessions. The red circles within this chart are times when the unemployment rate "flattened out" before either...

Vixtine Updated 

Monthly line charts are so simplistic; yet so important to analyze. If you've read my previous DOW posts you know we are closely following the 2000-2002 bear market cycle vs. any other bear market and this chart further confirms my thoughts. Notice how the VIX today (2017 to present) vs. the VIX 1994-2000 timeframe is diverging with the S&P. Both are making...

Vixtine Updated 

A break back below $295 spells trouble for my favorite pair of leggings. Good risk/reward set up as we are consolidating below structure in a bearish way. H&S topping pattern in the making after a long term (TCT) Thrust, Consolidation, Thrust has played out on the monthly. Lulu has over-produced based upon last earnings call with inventory rising 85% and...

Vixtine Updated 

The great benefit from today's close is the ability to zoom out and see the bigger picture using 6M timeframes. When you zoom out; it allows you to then make meaningful 2023 plans based upon analyzing some of the most important charts. DXY-The above chart is telling me that the dollar is actually quite weak...the breakout in 2015 was not meaningful as it has...

Vixtine

The Fed says they are trying hard to get inflation down however the commodities chart is sticking out it's tongue at the Fed. Everyone on social media is screaming: The Fed is going to cause a major RECESSION; MAJOR RECESSION IS COMING!!! Yet this chart is not screaming a major recession is coming (nor is it at all scared by the Central Banks "hawkish"...

Vixtine

The DOW is the leader right now...and the saying "Don't fight the Fed" is still very much applicable. There is no pivot, inflationary pressures still exist and the 2022 moves in the US 10 year should not be taken lightly. If you read over my last post (Nov 15th) you know we are following a path similar to the Dot com bust bear market except this time it will...