DXY Expected moveThis is the move we expect to happen today and maybe continue even tomorrow on the DXYLongby GoldenB551
Swing watch: Retrace to 50% fib, look for reactionOn the weekly, price seems to be retracing on the daily bullish range. I am waiting for a reaction on the 50% fib to determine if it will reverse to the upside from there or continue lower to take out the weekly FL/sell side liquidity. On the hourly, I am looking price to retrace upside on the bearish range to test 50% fib, for a reaction to continue upside or impulse downside to that daily 50% fib I mentioned earlier.Shortby p31wtrade110
NasdaqPrice gave very good movement, nearly 300 points yesterday and now it is at crucial zone. 18600 is important in deciding the trend direction. Buy above 18630 with the stop loss of 19590 for the targets 18660, 18700, 18740 and 18800. Sell below 18550 with the stop loss of 18590 for the targets 18510, 18480, 18440 and 18400. !8500 can act as support. Hit the like button to Rock !! Show some energy !! Note : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell. You are responsible for whatever you do.by vanathiUpdated 5
Nifty What ifs? it is 2004 again / seats are close to 400. Last phases of election are going on the result will be declared on 4th June the talk of the town is what will happen to Nifty if election is won by someone who is expected to win the general elections in India and what will happen if the results are unexpected. We can not predict elections and we can not predict how the Nifty will behave but certainly the charts which are representations of human emotions tell us a story and give us projections which we have seen are very close to being accurate. We have taken the help of Fibonacci retracement and parallel channel to help us understand where human emotions can lead Nifty to. Scenario 1) 2004 (History repeats itself)(Thunder seldom strikes twice in the same place but what if?) Let us talk about unexpected scenario like what happened in 2004. In this case market will definitely market will take a hit. The support levels for Nifty in such a case will be 20391. 20391 happens to be our channel bottom additionally it is also a Fibonacci support. If the Nifty falls below 20391 which it potentially can as investor emotions rather than valuations will take precedence the next support will be at 18688. In case 18688 will not hold (which is unlikely) worst case scenario as of now is Mother line support 50 Months EMA is at 17358. (This is what chart tells me as of now). In case of hung parliament / policy paralysis / War like situation at border and major internal strife Nifty may even fall to 15471.) In short there will be a lot of wealth erosion initially but nevertheless market will stabilize and upward journey will definitely begin once again if the euphoria of loss settles down. As companies will adjust / adapt and keep performing. The show will go on. When Trump lost US experts were saying that US market will have a free fall but against all odds US markets saw new highs in Biden term. Always remember that markets are unpredictable. Scenario 2) Seats are close to 350 or 400. The Euphoria and mad valuations in some stock might continue for a while but surely there will be Profit Booking fall sooner than later. The Major Nifty Resistance is near 23608 which also happens to be a mid channel resistance. That can be a potential point of profit booking. If we get a closing above 23608 which is less likely in near term, but you never say never. Or whenever in future we get a closing above 23608. This will open the doors for long term target of 27K. In 4/5 years time the best case scenario seems to be Nifty between 27 and 30K. Scenario 3) Seats are between 250 and 300. It will be victory or close to victory nevertheless it has potential to damage emotions of the investors and profit booking cycle can begin right then and there. 21376 or 20391 is possible even in such a scenario. Eventually when dust will settle and valuations are affordable again Nifty will restart it's journey towards 23608 in this case. I hope that the above Technical analysis will help you in bracing yourself for impact on D-day that is 4th June. Even if the landing is going to be smooth airlines always asks us to wear seat belts. In cars also we wear seat belts for safety. On bike we are supposed to wear helmets. What are all these equipment for? Safety. Safety mechanism of Stock market is Stop loss and Trailing stop loss. Keep them in a proper place whether it is scenario 1, 2 or 3. It will save you in case of scenario 1 or 3. Incase it is scenario 2 some of your stop losses may be hit and then the stock will run upward but remember it will be loss in profit. Loss in profit is better than loss. No one in the world has become a pauper by keeping stop losses. Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risks, please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart and other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. The names of the stocks or index levels of spot Nifty mentioned in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.Longby Happy_Candles_Investment7
Learn from the Pros: Trading Quotes from Trading LegendsSpeculation is as old as the hills, says one of the world’s best traders of all time, Jesse Livermore. In this blog, we give you the best quotes by the best traders — use them to get inspired and realize that success in trading is possible. Paul Tudor Jones, hedge fund manager, founder of Tudor : “I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.” “If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them. Risk control is the most important thing in trading.” “I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.” Stanley Druckenmiller, family office manager, founder of Duquesne: “I don't really like hedging. To me, if something needs to be hedged, you shouldn't have a position in it.” “I like putting all my eggs in one basket and then watching the basket very carefully.” “Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage.” George Soros, hedge fund manager, founder of Soros Fund Management : “It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.” “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” “My peculiarity is that I don't have a particular style of investing or, more exactly, I try to change my style to fit the conditions.” Ray Dalio, hedge fund manager, founder of Bridgewater Associates : “In trading you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time. If you are not aggressive, you are not going to make money, and if you are not defensive, you are not going to keep money.” “Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well.” “To make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble.” Jesse Livermore, stock trader, portrayed in “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting.” “It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.” “There is nothing new on Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” Let’s hear from you! What’s your favorite trading quote or maybe a favorite trader? Let us know in the comments!Editors' picksby TradingView99511
Commodities on the rise, but can they pull back?Commodities have been in a bull run since 2020, within an uptrend that can resume after the pullback observed in 2022. Analyzing the CRB Commodity Index, I believe that the pullback from that recent 2022 high isn’t over yet. There’s potential for a C wave that could retrace to 38.2% of the 2020 bull run. This may suggests that inflation might cool down, but much depends on the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. Premature rate cuts could spur demand and drive prices higher, complicating the inflation scenario.by ew-forecastUpdated 1
SP500 Short trading opportunity(swing-trading) 1I expect a swing of about 70 points+- all the way down to 5200 The USA Federal Reserve has indicated that it won't be cutting interest rates anytime soon, I think this was a bit unexpected and not entirely priced in before so we should see some decline of the value of the SP500 Index. However I can assume only short term, don't know the longer term implications of this that is why I am only aiming for a small downtrend at the very least. Stop Loss 5295+- (or 5305+-), take profit is 5200+-. I am risking $27500+- dollars in a Short Position, I will lose $100+- if it hits the stop loss and make around $465 if it hits my take profit.Shortby ricomisterUpdated 2
7 DTE on SPX (Mar 30th expiry)Selling my wings at the 10 delta this time. -5215 +5205 / -5395 +5405 Mar 30th Expiry 150 Premium - 7.13 commission & fees 850 Allocated capital 16.81% gain on capitalby leongabanUpdated 0
Nasdaq buyNasdaq signal already running 100 pips profit from our entry point ... buy trend line breaked but this is correction momentum so break even trade safeLongby DNA_Trader_Officials0
NAS Retracement possibleWe're pretty close to the midnight line, but there could be a retracement back toward the NYC Midnight opening price. Looking for one more rejection with the top price zone. Shortby parislaw110
#JXY $JPY waiting a good days soon #Japan My expectations for the #JPY dollar in the next 2 months God wi Maybe I'm wrong but I taking it by Lawrence-Sherif4
My expectations for the #US dollar in the short and medium term.Here are my thoughts: Good luck, mates. The targets shown on the chart.by Lawrence-Sherif4
Dow Jones on the Brink:Here's What You Need to Know!The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) currently trades at approximately 39,149.8, showing a slight increase of 0.26% in the last session. The market's recent performance has been marked by significant volatility, indicated by the bearish cross observed in the MACD and other momentum indicators. The latest candlestick formations suggest a potential reversal pattern within an ascending channel. The channel support was tested recently, and the price bounced back, indicating a temporary bullish sentiment. The bearish cross on the MACD histogram suggests downward momentum could persist in the short term. The 50-day moving average (1D MA50) is currently acting as a dynamic support level, around the 39,000 mark. This support level will be crucial for the next few trading sessions. A break below this level could signal a further decline, while maintaining above it could provide the necessary support for a rebound. Utilizing the Fibonacci retracement tool from the recent high to low, we see the price currently hovering around the 38.2% retracement level (approximately 38,350). This level is critical; a break below this could see the DJIA testing the 50% retracement level around 38,000, followed by the 61.8% level near 37,500. MACD: The bearish cross is evident, suggesting selling pressure may continue. However, any divergence from the current trend might indicate a potential reversal. RSI: Currently at around 55, the RSI is neither overbought nor oversold. A move towards 70 could signal overbought conditions, while a dip below 30 would indicate oversold conditions. Stochastic Oscillator: The %K and %D lines have crossed above the oversold territory, hinting at a possible bullish momentum if the crossover sustains. There has been a noticeable decrease in volume during the recent upward price movements, indicating potential weakness in the current rally. Higher volume on down days suggests more conviction behind the selling pressure. The price is trading near the top of the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a potential resistance area. A breakout above the cloud could indicate a continuation of the bullish trend, while a rejection might confirm the bearish outlook. Short Position Entry: 39,100 (below current price to confirm downward momentum) Target: 38,000 (50% Fibonacci retracement and strong support) Stop Loss: 39,600 (above recent resistance) Long Position Entry: 38,350 (near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) Target: 41,500 (rebound target and upper channel boundary) Stop Loss: 38,000 (just below 50% Fibonacci level to minimize losses) The DJIA presents a mixed outlook with significant potential for both upward and downward movements. Traders should closely monitor the key support and resistance levels, paying particular attention to the moving averages and momentum indicators for early signs of trend reversals. A disciplined approach with well-defined entry and exit points, coupled with appropriate stop losses, will be crucial in navigating the current market conditions.by AxiomEx0
DXY bearish Elliot wave structure 1.DXY just like my previous idea came to the lower end of the expansion move now headed into a retracement to create the 5th and final bearish leg Meaning looking at xxxusd pairs to be bullish to end the week into next and usdxxx pairs be bearish 2 If it doesn’t break below the 3 leg then it has a probability of reversing / accumulating to the upside causing Xxxusd pairs to continue lower and usdxxx pairs to continue higher PAYtience pays Shortby Onlypips4x1
NASS100i aspect nass to continue the up trend that we been on making a new HH Longby Thund3r_FXUpdated 212161
US100 - Bearish momentum continuing after retracementUS100 was retracing after huge bearish momentum. After taking the Asian session high, I am expecting the bearish momentum to continue in the NY session.UShortby linkwithasad2
US30 dropSeeing a sell on us30 as we can see price created a correction now we looking to dropShortby Beanieboyy3
US100 dropas we are expecting fundimentals in about an hour, im seeing a drop in nas100 in anticipation to break the previous low.Shortby Beanieboyy111
US30Certainly! Let's break down the concept of the 38% retracement into its key components for a clearer understanding: 1. **Fibonacci Retracement Levels:** These are horizontal lines used in technical analysis to identify potential support and resistance levels in a price chart. They are based on ratios derived from the Fibonacci sequence. 2. **The 38% Retracement Level:** Specifically, the 38% retracement level is derived from the Fibonacci ratio of 0.382. It indicates a potential reversal or pause in the price movement within a larger trend. 3. **Application of the 38% Level:** - **Uptrend:** In an uptrend, traders draw the retracement from the low to the high. The 38% retracement level serves as a point where the price might find support during a pullback. - **Downtrend:** Conversely, in a downtrend, the retracement is drawn from the high to the low. Here, the 38% retracement level acts as potential resistance during a rally. 4. **Drawing the Retracement:** - Traders identify the most recent significant high and low points in the price movement. - For an uptrend, the retracement is drawn from the low to the high, while for a downtrend, it's drawn from the high to the low. 5. **Usage of the 38% Level:** - Traders observe how price reacts around the 38% retracement level. If the price bounces off this level and resumes the prevailing trend, it validates the retracement and offers a potential entry point. - It's common to combine the 38% retracement level with other technical indicators for confirmation, such as moving averages or trendlines. 6. **Example Scenarios:** - In an uptrend scenario, if a stock moves from $100 to $150, the 38% retracement of this move would be at $131. Traders might watch for the stock to find support around $131 and consider entering long positions. - In a downtrend scenario, if a stock drops from $150 to $100, the 38% retracement level during a rally would be around $119. Traders might anticipate resistance around $119 and consider shorting opportunities. 7. **Significance:** - The 38% retracement level is significant because it often acts as a key support or resistance level where price reversals may occur. - Traders use this level to make informed decisions regarding entry, exit, and risk management within the context of a larger trend. Understanding the 38% retracement level and its application within Fibonacci retracements can provide traders with valuable insights into potential price movements and opportunities in the financial markets.Shortby B9A-88652-NisarAhmad5
Need Confirmation B-wave is completeI posted an idea for SPX500USD and SPY a couple weeks ago saying I was legging into July puts because we are nearing a major top. That top is likely in, but here is the confirmation I am looking for to signal a larger degree B-wave has completed: - Expect small bounce to around 5283 - Then drop to 5215-5240 ** If this occurs, and is followed by a bounce to 5292-5293, it will set up for a iii wave down to 5110 by early to mid June 2024 to confirm a larger degree C wave is in progress with end goal 4600-4700 by end of July 2024.Shortby JerryManders11118
Tops Not In...I see a lot of fear in markets and many thinking a top may be in...I really struggle seeing how for many reasons and I think we got more up left till this party ends.Longby Swoop67
DOW GREAT FORMATION H AND SGreat head and shoulder formation. It doesn't have to be a perfect H&S . Its important to have divergence and there is. It was nice to trade itShortby bruno_iksil0
The price fell despite strong NVDA earnings. What's the cause?Nasdaq Falls 2.0% Amid Investor Uncertainty and Fed Caution The Nasdaq fell by 2.0% on a subdued Thursday as investors adjusted their portfolios amid shifting market sentiment. The trading session was marked by an uneasy atmosphere following the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which indicated that central bankers are in no hurry to reduce interest rates . This cautious stance from the Fed has been a key factor in supporting the recent upward trend in stocks. Technical Analysis: The Nasdaq is poised to test the 18,715 level before likely retreating to 18,600. A bearish trend will be confirmed if the price stabilizes below 18,600, potentially driving it down further to 18,435. Conversely, a bullish scenario will emerge if the price breaks above the 18,660 threshold. pivot line: 18710 Resistance Price: 18790, 18920, 19100 Support price: 18550, 18440, 18250 Its range for Today will be between Support 18250 and Resistance 18790 Shortby SroshMayi228