Opened (IRA): ARKK July 19th 40 Short Put... for a 1.01 credit. Comments: Adding a short put here in the vicinity of the 25 delta out in July with a break even better than what I currently have on for my covered call. (See Post Below). Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
Time to short the marketWere back at the top in this distribution phase if you miss this top there will be one more, but were only gunna maybe see one more pump before a big bear market.Shortby jlevtrading1Updated 2
Opened (IRA): BITO April 19th 31 Covered Call... for a 27.54 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 97.9/81.9% and a monthly dividend to take advantage of. However, the monthly dividend has varied widely -- with the last two distributions paying .36 (February 8th) and .73 (March 8th) with an annual dividend of 8.72 (.73 average monthly) (31.7% annualized as a function of current price). I'm primarily looking to grab the April monthly here; anything additional above my break even will be gravy ... . In any event, the metrics: BPE/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 27.54 Max Profit (ex. dividend): 3.46 ($346) ROC at Max: 12.56%Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 112
3rd try at breaking through long-term resistanceGold is showing a classic long-term cup and handle period. Spent about 7 years in the "cup" (long shakeout period from the bubble that had formed after the last financial crisis followed by an eventual rally to previous all-time high). It has spent over 2 years now in the "handle" (period of consolidation giving the appearance that price can't break through the previous all-time high). After a recent shakeout and false breakdown from the handle pattern, it looks like it wants to test the all-time high again and this time there's a major catalyst (flight to safety due to all the uncertainty recently with the banks and the potential for yet another financial crisis). Due to that, I don't think you need to wait for a breakout of the all-time highs around $195 in GLD but that would be a safer entry (a monthly close above that level). Of course another shakeout from that level could follow because if I have picked up on this potential trade, then many others likely have also. Anyway, I am just speculating and not a financial advisor, if you decide to follow this please trade at your own risk and diversify (this trade won't break the bank for me personally if it doesn't work out and it shouldn't for you either).Longby PatientContrarianUpdated 1
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 205/215/275/285 IC... for a 2.17 credit. Comments: An additive delta adjustment to the current SMH IC I have on. (See Post Below). With the original setup's short call aspect converging on -25 delta and the short put converging on +10, selling a skewed IC with the oppositionally delta'd short call/short put (i.e., at the +25 short put and the -10 delta short call) to bring back the position back to net delta flat with 63 days until expiry. 4.40 total credits collected with a current delta/theta of 1.02/5.81. by NaughtyPines0
Opening (IRA): BITO June 21st 24 Short Put... for a 1.82 credit. Comments: Adding a short put on weakness here to my covered call, which I'm sticking in with to grab the monthly divvy. I'm okay with being assigned additional shares, since the break even of the June 24 is below the cost basis of what I currently have on. Otherwise, I'm perfectly fine with doing my usual take profit at 50% of max. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 22.18 Max Profit: 1.82 ($182) ROC as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 8.21% ROC at 50% Max: 4.10%Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
✅SPY GROWTH AHEAD|LONG🚀 ✅SPY broke the key Horizontal level of 524$ Which reinforces our Bullish bias and I think That we will see A further move up LONG🚀 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ Longby ProSignalsFx115
EEM before the collapse downNow the growth can end at any moment and then there will be a fall down to the level of 2009. It could be head and shouldersShortby zerosee20
QQQ Double Top on Bearish DivergenceIf you haven`t bought the dip on QQQ: Then it's important to understand that it's currently exhibiting a double top formation, known as one of the most bearish chart patterns, along with a substantial bearish divergence. I foresee a retracement soon, possibly to $416, but I still expect it to finish the year on a positive note!Shortby TopgOptionsUpdated 181822
SPY S&P500 etf Bearish DivergenceIf you haven't already purchased SPY after the 2023 forecast: forecast:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/idea/l6U1M9dJ/ then it's important to be aware that there's a significant bearish divergence in the RSI of SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, which initiated at $469. Anticipating a technical retracement to $495, given its prolonged period of being overbought! Shortby TopgOptionsUpdated 181816
Clear blue SPYsMy play on words... lol. I'm thinking with NVDA earnings next week we could go even higher. The last time SPY flew extra high was on NVDA earnings last quarter. Back to the chart, staying above the mid point of the channel is key. This weekly parallel channel provides the levels for the daily too.Longby mommymilesUpdated 5
TBT / TLT T Bill Inverse TreasuriesOn this daily chart of the ratio of TBT ( Treasury Bills Bearish ) to TLT ( the inverse Bullish) over time. This serves to accentuate shifts in prices from factors affecting them both but with opposite effects. Federal actions or even reports of economic data are some of those factors. This chart shows that about November 1st, TBT ad topped out and fell. They are inverses of one another . What makes one go down will make the other go up and viceversa. By February 1, TBT bottomed out and the ratio reversed. The cycle took 3 months. On a lower time frame, cycling would be more frequent. At present, it would appear to be time to sell TLT and / or buy TBT What applies to the TBT /TLT ratio would also relate to TMV / TMF as a ratio. Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 2
TBT Inverse Treasuries ( Long Dates ) LONGTBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a broadening channel ( a megaphone pattern) reflecting increasing volatility as federal action or inaction gets priced into buying decisions at treasury auctions. As for me, i will continue to build a TBT position until it is obvious that the fed has launched an active agenda of rate cuts which will fortify T-bill prices and make TLT the new runner.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 2
TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONGTBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 2
bull trap Stocks Fall Back on Concern Interest Rates to StayBull Trap: Stocks Fall Back on Concern Interest Rates to Stay Higher for Longer A bull trap occurs when a stock shows a false signal of reversal during a downtrend, luring investors into thinking the price will continue to rise, only for it to resume its decline. Recently, many investors have experienced bull traps, driven by the ongoing concern that interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period. The Setup of the Bull Trap During a period of market volatility, certain stocks showed promising upward movements, leading to a sense of optimism among traders. These movements suggested that the market had bottomed out and was ready for a rally. However, this optimism was short-lived as the broader economic indicators continued to signal potential headwinds. Interest Rates and Market Sentiment The primary factor contributing to the bull trap scenario has been the persistent concern that central banks will keep interest rates higher for an extended period. This policy stance is intended to combat inflation, but it also puts pressure on borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, leading to a cautious outlook on economic growth. Investor Reactions Investors, initially buoyed by the upward price action, began to buy into the market, thinking that the worst was over. This buying activity pushed prices up temporarily, creating the illusion of a market recovery. However, as the reality of higher interest rates set in, the market sentiment shifted back to bearishness, trapping those who had bought in during the false rally. Lessons from the Bull Trap Stay Informed: Keep up with macroeconomic indicators and central bank policies. Technical Analysis: Use technical analysis tools to identify potential bull traps. Diversification: Diversify your investments to mitigate the impact of market volatility. Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders to protect your investments from significant downturns. Conclusion Bull traps serve as a reminder of the importance of thorough analysis and cautious investing. The recent market conditions, influenced by concerns over prolonged higher interest rates, highlight the need for investors to remain vigilant and avoid getting caught in false signals. By understanding the factors at play and implementing sound investment strategies, investors can better navigate the complexities of the market. Shortby Ozy_Target1
$SPY May 17, 2024AMEX:SPY May 17, 2024 15 Minutes. AMEX:SPY managed to trade between 521*532 and 527-528 yesterday. The current uptrend is stalled and getting ready for the next up move towards 534-535 provide it holds 525 levels. For the day holding 527.5 uptrend is intact. At the moment AMEX:SPY below 9,21 and 50 moving averages in 15 minutes. Hence possible target is 526.5 to 527 as 100 averages is rising upwards. In 60 Minutes, chart we are having 527 levels as 21 averages. So, for the day I will buy above 530.9 for 531.5+ trailing previous bar once crossed. And sell below 526.5 for 522.5 - 523 levels. by RiderTrader1
Qs above the lineMeasured move into new ATHs in anticipation of NVDA earnings next week - end of month. Above the midpoint of channel (month). Week view.Longby mommymiles1
$SPY Forecast For Years To Comeplease dont take my opinion as financial advice i'm just a 17 year old with some speculations. with that being said let me explain myself. With the fed pausing still i believe we will keep rallying till we see our first cut once we get that first cut it'll be the market top. The fed has been sitting on their hands for way too long and with inflation sneaking back up i dont see it getting better until its too late. stuff will start breaking soon and it'll just put us more and more into a downward spiral. going into 2025 we will be in a bear market and throughout 2025 we will be trying to fight a spike of inflation which will scare the market and bring us down to 2022 highs and if shit hits the fan we will continue to see downside going into 2026. the battle against inflation isnt a quick fix and this will take time (a couple years) we will eventually recover but it wont be till we see the fed's inflation goal of 2% for a couple months of consistency that'll be our green light for ATH. I will be scaling into end of year shorts starting at $550, $560, and final $570 im not missing this opportunity with the stock market this overbought knowing that the dot plot forecasts higher inflation to come next year. Taking profits on the way down as more data comes out. Thank you for your time and i will be open to hearing others opinion. Shortby bullishbrowsingUpdated 2
Is this a crab on SPYIs this a #crab on the high #SPY time. Coincides with an interesting fib level on the fib channel. I see the 175 show its head randomly.Shortby HotsauceShoTYME0
TLT Is Coming Into Key Support Within A Corrective DeclineTreasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and continuation higher back to 2024 highs. Just keep in mind that bullish confirmation is only above channel resistance line near 92.00 region, while invalidation level remains at 82.45.Longby ew-forecastUpdated 1110
$SPY May 16, 2024AMEX:SPY May 16, 2024 15 Minutes. AMEX:SPY opened gap up. Since long was confirmed as the rectangle was broken out the previous day, i waited for a good close of bar. I bought around 527. I had earlier marked the extension for the range 515 to 522.66 to 519.74. This gave a 1.618 target as 532. For the day, since I always believed gaps are strong if not filled, I will take the rise from 525.18 to 530.08. I expect today AMEX:SPY to be around 531 to 532 as top and if any retrace it will be around 527 to 528 levels. If these number s hold today i expect 535 next week.by RiderTrader3
There is hope for China equitiesOne of the most hated market currently and some called it uninvestable, the China market has plunged more than 60% from its peak. We are now at an inflection point again, reaching the upper side of the decreasing channel. I believe the property market will take some years to recover , with excess supplies to clear and consumers continuing to adopt a wait and see approach in buying as prices continue to fall...... Probably, 2nd to 3rd Quarter of this year , will we be able to see some recovery. Currently , it is still weak although the government has injected billions of dollars to shore up the stock market, clamping down on short sellers, etc. Prices can continue to tumble even if it breaks out of the channel as the stimulus is not strong to begin with and consumer confidence has not returned to the market. Job market remains soft in China and people are tightening their wallet to spend unnecessarily. With no additional stimulus from the government, people are using their own savings to continue travel and do their shopping but at a more cautious approach. So long as the US interest rates remain high at 5 over % , the international players would continue to support the US market which makes business sense. Time is of essence as people who invest in S&P 500 index can easily gain 8-10% profits a year so there is no reason to park funds into China equities even it is undervalued and the downside is very little. Nobody can tell for sure how long this will last as it can go sideways for a long time. Those who knows how to stock pick individual China shares may benefit from certain themes which I have covered some months ago like Travel sectors. Longby dchua1969Updated 116