QQQ - Wave 5 underwayY'all gonna get rekt shorting this. Wave 5 underway. Might get another dip the next few weeks and then off to the moon. Targets based on various EW counts.Longby fb82Updated 9915
BTC Profit HedgingBitcoin has had an absolutely epic, face ripper rally over the last year and it may be time a look for a pullback in price as buying opportunities present themselves. Today I have been considering the BITI Short BTC ETF which could give us an amazing hedge if BTC sees a sharp decline. Now I do believe we reached a maximum pump at $50k, and I dont quite see the probability of Bitcoin moving higher just yet. Historically, we tend to see corrections moving into the halving cycle for April. But after that I would expect Bitcoin to officially start the next bull run. So if you would like to stack some more Bitcoin in your portfolio, this can be a good opportunity to triple your holding if we pull back to $30k or lower. I like the RSI showing us extremely oversold for quite a while, and its only now starting to tick up. Additionally, we are still below the range point of control which sits at $13.40. Anything above this price point I would expect buyers to hold their profits until the higher targets I have marked above. My plan, I am going to buy this ETF if Bitcoin sees a pop back up to $50k. Otherwise, it does seem like a great technical entry regardless. Good Luck! Longby afurs1Updated 7710
SPY Weekly OutlookMany of you are confused on the recent price action of the market. When in doubt, zoom out. Pay attention to the next fib level and pay attention to GOLD & OIL. Feds only cut rates during market turmoil not during bull runs. To keep it SHORT and sweet. It doesn't end well for risk assets. On the other hand, have you seen the prices of cocoa??? Insane!by stantheinvestingmanUpdated 2
There is hope for China equitiesOne of the most hated market currently and some called it uninvestable, the China market has plunged more than 60% from its peak. We are now at an inflection point again, reaching the upper side of the decreasing channel. I believe the property market will take some years to recover , with excess supplies to clear and consumers continuing to adopt a wait and see approach in buying as prices continue to fall...... Probably, 2nd to 3rd Quarter of this year , will we be able to see some recovery. Currently , it is still weak although the government has injected billions of dollars to shore up the stock market, clamping down on short sellers, etc. Prices can continue to tumble even if it breaks out of the channel as the stimulus is not strong to begin with and consumer confidence has not returned to the market. Job market remains soft in China and people are tightening their wallet to spend unnecessarily. With no additional stimulus from the government, people are using their own savings to continue travel and do their shopping but at a more cautious approach. So long as the US interest rates remain high at 5 over % , the international players would continue to support the US market which makes business sense. Time is of essence as people who invest in S&P 500 index can easily gain 8-10% profits a year so there is no reason to park funds into China equities even it is undervalued and the downside is very little. Nobody can tell for sure how long this will last as it can go sideways for a long time. Those who knows how to stock pick individual China shares may benefit from certain themes which I have covered some months ago like Travel sectors. Longby dchua1969Updated 115
SPY and the othersRSI divergence, fading volume on rising price, leave us….untrusting….neutral is our position. by WillNixTrading1
SPY: OverheatedWe've seen a wild +25% rally since Oct 2023 in SPY. Honestly, I did not expect this move back in Oct, especially since we broke down below the MAs and they acted as resistance for 3 weeks. However, the market doesn't care about what we think it will do. I don't like calling tops, but nothing goes straight up. With the crypto market building up hype as well, I think we are reaching a stage of local euphoria. Greed is pretty high right now. IF this is a local top, THEN I think testing the previous ATH is the most likely scenario before continuing up. We could see it drop to anywhere between 480-470 in the next month or so. This coincides with where the 21W EMA and 20W MA are. We also saw good volume around those prices in the last couple of years. The 0.236 fib retracement level sits at 472. Lastly, the RSI has reached the red Bollinger Band and is overbought at 77. This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.Shortby TheStockManUpdated 888
XLF To RallyXLF normally moves quite slowly, but we may may be at a moment in which that accelerates substantially, even improving on what has been a phenomenal year. Weekly - Daily - The EW path drawn is what may be expected most commonly - we're looking for that or better.Longby FuturesIntelTMUpdated 222
Short UtilitiesUtilities have risen along with a bond rally, stock market surge and AI-hype. Stock market is back near peak valuation hit in late 2021, AI-hype is fading and surge in commodities is putting a lid on bonds. XLU also firing exhaustion signals.Shortby BasedCharts0
Silver miners looking bullishThis monthly chart of the Golbal X Silver Miners looks bullish. After a decade of pullback and consolidations, silver miners seem ready to rise. We like the recent increase in volume and the bullish structure on the MACD. A break above $39 would exit the downtrend line linking the tops and would confirm the exit of this long wedge. Next resistances at $53then $94. A break below $22.50 would invalidate this view. -------------- In the context of gold and copper making new all time highs , the devaluation of currencies by countries around the world, starting with the US, and the increasing needs of silver for industrial production of alternative energies solutions, we think that silver and silver miners are due for a catch-up. Longby powerintegral0
SOXL and the sentiment cycleAMEX:SOXL setting up for a beautiful run ahead of NVDA earnings. Note the structure similar to Justin Mamis sentiment cycle.Longby Ben_1148x20
MSOS - Ascending Wedge- Downward MoveI actually would like to see MSOS move upwards. The only thing that has me worried is this ascending wedge that is pretty obvious. Classic move downwards to the .786 Fib around $6.28 range. The only thing that would catapult it up would be the reclassification to Schedule 1. I would like to see it break and test the ~$12 area. The is not trading advice, just something I happened to notice and wanted to share. by MadWicketUpdated 0
short term top in?7 points up in 7 weeks or 49 days. after going up 14 days. a move down into june is something to consider. this is not financial advise. do your own research. please dont follow my trades unless that is what you want to do. i dont want to be responsible for your success or failure. that is a heavy burden to carry which i am not ready for. my posts are intended for educational purposes to teach you how to learn to speak the language of numbers. Shortby Oppollo0
Opened (IRA): ARKK July 19th 40 Short Put... for a 1.01 credit. Comments: Adding a short put here in the vicinity of the 25 delta out in July with a break even better than what I currently have on for my covered call. (See Post Below). Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
Opening (IRA): BITO July 19th 30 Covered Call... for a 26.12 debit. Comments: Re-upping after closing out my longer-dated covered call (which I had rolled all the way out to December). Selling the -30 delta call against long stock here. As before, will look to roll out the short call for duration at 50% max, collect the monthly dividend along the way ... . I'll also look at selling short put, assuming I can get in on weakness and with a resulting break even better than what I currently have on.Longby NaughtyPines0
Opened (IRA): BITO April 19th 31 Covered Call... for a 27.54 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 97.9/81.9% and a monthly dividend to take advantage of. However, the monthly dividend has varied widely -- with the last two distributions paying .36 (February 8th) and .73 (March 8th) with an annual dividend of 8.72 (.73 average monthly) (31.7% annualized as a function of current price). I'm primarily looking to grab the April monthly here; anything additional above my break even will be gravy ... . In any event, the metrics: BPE/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 27.54 Max Profit (ex. dividend): 3.46 ($346) ROC at Max: 12.56%Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 112
3rd try at breaking through long-term resistanceGold is showing a classic long-term cup and handle period. Spent about 7 years in the "cup" (long shakeout period from the bubble that had formed after the last financial crisis followed by an eventual rally to previous all-time high). It has spent over 2 years now in the "handle" (period of consolidation giving the appearance that price can't break through the previous all-time high). After a recent shakeout and false breakdown from the handle pattern, it looks like it wants to test the all-time high again and this time there's a major catalyst (flight to safety due to all the uncertainty recently with the banks and the potential for yet another financial crisis). Due to that, I don't think you need to wait for a breakout of the all-time highs around $195 in GLD but that would be a safer entry (a monthly close above that level). Of course another shakeout from that level could follow because if I have picked up on this potential trade, then many others likely have also. Anyway, I am just speculating and not a financial advisor, if you decide to follow this please trade at your own risk and diversify (this trade won't break the bank for me personally if it doesn't work out and it shouldn't for you either).Longby PatientContrarianUpdated 1
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 205/215/275/285 IC... for a 2.17 credit. Comments: An additive delta adjustment to the current SMH IC I have on. (See Post Below). With the original setup's short call aspect converging on -25 delta and the short put converging on +10, selling a skewed IC with the oppositionally delta'd short call/short put (i.e., at the +25 short put and the -10 delta short call) to bring back the position back to net delta flat with 63 days until expiry. 4.40 total credits collected with a current delta/theta of 1.02/5.81. by NaughtyPines0
Opening (IRA): BITO June 21st 24 Short Put... for a 1.82 credit. Comments: Adding a short put on weakness here to my covered call, which I'm sticking in with to grab the monthly divvy. I'm okay with being assigned additional shares, since the break even of the June 24 is below the cost basis of what I currently have on. Otherwise, I'm perfectly fine with doing my usual take profit at 50% of max. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 22.18 Max Profit: 1.82 ($182) ROC as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 8.21% ROC at 50% Max: 4.10%Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
SPY and indices could be at a location for shortI have been waiting for a few things to play out before even dreaming of posting the idea of a short. But we are at a spot I will be seeing how it plays out and it may not fully trigger till next week, but figured give you heads up.Shortby alleytraderUpdated 0
EEM before the collapse downNow the growth can end at any moment and then there will be a fall down to the level of 2009. It could be head and shouldersShortby zerosee20
TBT Inverse Treasuries ( Long Dates ) LONGTBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a broadening channel ( a megaphone pattern) reflecting increasing volatility as federal action or inaction gets priced into buying decisions at treasury auctions. As for me, i will continue to build a TBT position until it is obvious that the fed has launched an active agenda of rate cuts which will fortify T-bill prices and make TLT the new runner.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 2
TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONGTBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 2
Qs above the lineMeasured move into new ATHs in anticipation of NVDA earnings next week - end of month. Above the midpoint of channel (month). Week view.Longby mommymiles0