QQQ LongLooks like 471ish for a final target in late June. I'm not calling a top, but the move into it looks probable based on structure. Hopefully a dip at some point and then one more consistent rally to 471Longby Brukks1
LONG CHINA Ok my friends, here is what you are going to do. Right now, you have the opportunity to get a better price on China than the vast majority of investors since 2006. AMEX:FXI is pure, undisputed value here. Instead of buying America at the top, buy China at the bottom. Free money at these levels. Long AMEX:FXI Longby bruv672
$SPY May 23, 2024AMEX:SPY May 23, 2024 15 Minutes. Once more day. 531 became a tough nut to crack. As expected once 529 broke we have a low near 527.5 levels. For the last rise from 499.55 to 531.56 23.6% retracement is 524 levels. in 15 minutes for the rise from 520.56 to 531.56 61.8% retracement is 525 levels. Today as expected in 15 minutes AMEX:SPY too support at 200 averages. For the day if we take the last fall 531.56 to 527.6 530.8 to 531 will be a level to short SL 532.5 to 533. My target for upside is still 534 provided 532 is taken out convincingly. For the day my bias is towards 524- 525 once 527.4 is born on downside. Shortby RiderTrader6610
$2.63 Mil on Silver?!Silver 5/22/2024 Exp Silver has been on a surge so far this month, rising 20.54% from the beginning of May. This previous friday an option order totalling $2.63 Mil came in for AMEX:SLV targeting the $28 strike expiring on 5/22. The problem with this order is it is way too enormous for the ticker causing the market makers (dealers) major issues if price continues any higher. The plan for this trade is to hedge (go against) the original trade, taking the ITM $29 Puts for 5/22. The price expectations for AMEX:SLV coming into the 5/22 expiration are $30.13 to the upside and $27.47 to the downside. Liquidity zones will lay at both the expected moves. The $29/28 strike has a huge Call wall forcing the dealers to sell at that price. Shortby OakFDomUpdated 0
Riding with the Trend - Hong Kong Stock marketThe HK stock market (HSI) has fallen more than 5000+ points from the high of 20,000 in July 2023. In Feb this year, I made a bold statement , making a crazy prediction that the HSI has bottomed in Jan 2023 and has been slowly accumulating this index via 2800 Tracker Fund ETF. Fast forward to the recent week, we witnessed a straight near 10 days of bullish rallying in this index, driving mostly the tech stocks darlings like Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, etc much higher. If you are concerned that you have missed the bottom, fret not as there are always opportunities in the market. I believe there would be a retracement sometime next week or so and it could land on support level from 17160 to 17, 926 level. That would be another level that I would be accumulating as well. There are many things that the Chinese government is cleaning up the stock market, managing the short sellers, adding more liquidity to the market to prevent it from falling further to boost confidence, etc. While not all the big boys are rushing in to grab a pie of this market, the tide has definitely turn one from overly bearish to cautiously bullish now. So, if you are not into researching individual company to buy , perhaps this ETF could be a good allocation of your capital into the emerging market. With a PE of less than 10 compared to 25 for SPX, this market is very much undervalued and the potential upside far outweigh the downside. Only question is how long will it takes to become a multi-bagger. I am looking at 20-22 price level for this ETF by Q4 2024/early Q125. Please DYODD by dchua1969Updated 111
Buy when there is maximum fear or blood on the streetsBefore, investors were afraid to touch Russia market but then again, other than its ETF, many retail investors in Asia are quite unlikely to be acquainted with this ETF. Now , 2 years have passed and the war is still ongoing but few cares about the outcome and impact (if any) on the stock market. Now, all eyes are on China, a too big country to miss anyway! We see from the weekly chart that it has reached a triple bottom formation and rebounded nicely upwards. It is still very much undervalued imo and the risk/rewards is tremendous if all things are working nicely for China. It would not be a straight line up though we had seen very strong upward trajectory in the last 4 weeks in the HSI. 2nd half of this year, I expect more stimulus to come from the Chinese government to continue boost consumer confidence. The faster they put a floor on the property market bottom, solve the unemployment issues , the faster the consumers will return to the stock market. Retail investors are hoarding up cash in the trillions instead of spending after the recent Covid Saga plus the implosion of the property market (many many got burnt) It will take some time so be patient ....There will be resistance along the ways but knowing the resilience of the Chinese government, I believe the bull market has return and moving forward, it will be better for everyone. I am vested in this index so please DYODDLongby dchua1969Updated 0
GLD: Bearish Alternate Bat HOP Level Reached: Reversal LikelyThe yields within the bond market are hinting towards a reversal in Gold and potentially other metals today, however, Gold right now is sitting at the HOP level of a Bearish Alt-Bat. If GLD were to reverse here, we would see it as a type 2 return which could result in Bearish price-Action beyond just the intra week but extended to the entire macro trend as a whole. I will be playing this via multiple OTM /GC Bear Put Vertical Spreads on the monthlies and may potentially start playing cheaper bearish plays on a week by week basis.Shortby RizeSenpaiUpdated 0
SMH PutNASDAQ:SMH - Buy Jun-21-24 $235 Put @ $7.35 Limit to Open Similar to XLC, downward bias. Expectation that markets will see a correction for a few weeks.Shortby emperius0
XLC PutAMEX:XLC - Buy Jun-07-24 $82.5 Strike Puts @ $0.7 Limit to Open Prime for a short. Oscillator overbought and diverging downward. Put prices are attractive and not overpriced like major indices. Topping a major resistance ceiling, and price formation, makes it a very attractive short.Shortby emperius0
GLD - Buy the PullbackWhile today's down move may look dramatic to some, two things going on. One is a typical .382 Fib retracement. The other, a test of the breakout level. Looks like an easy run to the top of the trend channel above 230.Longby AssetDesign0
The Long Case for SemiconductorsThe long thesis for SOXL, Semiconductor 3x Long. With Crypto, AI, Automation etc we will soon come to view Semiconductors as a fuel for computational power. Just like we need gas for cars and electricity for all the rest the next phase of the economy is running off of Computational Power at a mass global scale. The internet was the mass explosion of collective knowledge onto the world. This next phase will be the democratization of computational power to go with that knowledge. As things are the semiconductor industry is well insulated through its extreme specialization. Governments will move to increase their own semiconductor production but this is 5-10years out and will most likely end up contracting/subsidizing Established semiconductor manufacturers. This all points Up for Semiconductors.Longby AngryBuhdaUpdated 3
TLT wedgeTLT presents a wedge on a rising trend, this is bullish for risk on markets. As inflation remains sticky any report of easing inflation will cause TLT to break through this to the upside. Remember that if 20 year bonds rise, this helps alleviate the yield curve and drop shorter-dated bonds, this reduces overall interest rates. In a healthy market, longer-dated bonds should always provide more yield than monthlies, this is not the case for the last year plus because of the yield curve inversion. -Late June or July this wedge breaks to the upside -Rate cuts will follow -Either the market pumps into elections hard, or we start to go into a recession -I believe Biden will not allow a recession until 2025 due to electionsLongby Apollo_CB5
Spy Ascending TriangleI caught 529 puts. From earlier this morning, And after exit We tagged the trend line for the support of the ascending triangleShortby HelloUs0
Signal & Noise: Macro Tests: Italy, Japan, IndiaThis piece was meant to focus on the number of major equity indices that are near all time highs, or attempting to break out of long term ranges, and how their behaviors around those prior highs over coming months will likely offer significant insight into what comes next. It evolved to something else. I am convinced that most market fluctuations are random, mostly untradable noise. And yet, most who work with markets for a living, are required to place meaningless behavior into a continuous narrative for clients and employers. Importantly, once a narrative is publicly expressed, the analyst/trader becomes entrapped in that narrative and all of the resultant behavioral biases that being identified with a view entail. Working in the institutional setting, my personal solution was to focus on longer time frames. Part of the technicians evolution is finding the style that best suits their emotional and risk management tolerance. For me, it was a long and sometimes painful journey. One of my toughest challenges was finding a systematic approach to separating signal from noise. In other words, when is market behavior important and when is it not. And if it is, how do I subsequently fashion a trade to take advantage of the informational advantage. Anyone who has traded for a living knows that market behaviors and patterns are often unreliable. This is particularly true if they are occurring in a trending market and well away from substantive support or resistance (the most obvious exception being early stage trends and climax/ending structures). Don't get me wrong, trading focused systematic entries to established trends can work very well. But, I prefer to enter initial positions into trends that are in their early stages, where I have tighter control over risk management and where my macro opinion, hopefully divergent with the dominant market narrative, is more likely to be a change catalyst. When patterns occur at the proper position on the chart, they become far more valuable and actionable. To be fair, I don't completely ignore day to day fluctuations. Years of staring at tens of thousands of charts has given me a decent feel for the short term fluctuations. But I place far less emphasis on building trading plans or adjusting my positions around them, and I try to avoid labeling them as meaningful for anything more than a short term trade. In these cases my chart analysis typically consists of a cursory glance at the price-volume relationships and general view of the chart. On the other hand, solid confluences of support and resistance that have been well defined in the weekly and monthly perspectives are my personal wheelhouse. When I find these markets, I focus on them intently. In my process, I actively scan for markets that are testing well defined price junctures in their weekly and monthly perspectives. At these junctures the price/volume behavior combinations in the daily, weekly and even hourly perspectives become meaningful and often produce actionable insight. As a professional fixed-income trader I have always been envious of non-constrained traders who had thousands of global stocks, equity indices, currencies, commodities across multiple time perspectives to choose from. There is always a fat pitch setting up somewhere as long as you are dogged enough to go find them. On to the charts: Multiple global equity markets are testing important prior highs, many in monthly perspectives others in weekly perspectives. These are precisely the situations in which signal quality is high and the price/volume relationships become more important and where often times new trends with quality risk reward tolerances set up from. These are all charts that have recently moved onto my watch list. MSCI Italy: The MSCI Italy represents a point in case. Italy recently moved modestly above the top of a two decade long trading range. From this position, even small daily perspective fluctuations generate meaningful information. Importantly, with the long trading range acting as potential cause, potential targets of a breakout are much-much-much higher and even a failure back toward the trading range lows would produce roughly a 40-45% return. It's pretty simple, either the market is A) Breaking out. B) Has washed out the top of the range, sucked in weak hands, and will soon fail back into the range leaving weak hands trapped. My initial thought upon examining the chart was that it was indeed breaking out of its decade long trading range. • The September 2022 low (B) was higher than the prior low (A). • During the last decline toward the range lows (34.53 - 20.99) there were significant signs of accumulation. • The market is clearly above the most immediate horizontal resistance( 34.45- 34.53) and just above the 36.88 resistance. • Corrections since breaking out have mostly taken the form of bull flags or pennants. However: • Momentum is significantly over-extended in all time frames. • The weekly slow stochastic is diverging and threatening to rollover. • The monthly slow stochastic is attempting to rollover. • Near the Top of the daily, weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands. • Multiple price channel tops conflude in the 38.00 area of the chart. • Volume has declined markedly as the market rallied over the last 19 months. This suggests a lack of selling pressure as opposed to strong demand. • Since 2011 the peaks have been running in the mid 40 month range. Currently at 35 months. • While above most recent resistance, the 2009 high @ 43.54 should offer strong resistance. If the market is ready to pullback, the price-volume relationships, pattern, behavior relative to support and resistance zone and other traditional technical relationships should allow early entry into the next meaningful directional move. For now, I suspect that the market may indeed be breaking out in the long term, but the long laundry list of concerns suggests that a pullback is likely to develop before the next strong trending phase begins. The behaviors on the pullback, and where the pullback holds (most likely the broken C-D resistance) will be key. NIKKEI 225 Monthly: Nikkei is another major market testing its all-time high. At all time highs and a channel top. Clearly a watch list chart. MSCI India ETF: India is interesting. There has been a very positive change in the reporting on India's economic outlook and the market recently moved to a new all time high. But note the swell in volume and the poor upside result generated by that volume. I suspect strong hands are selling the rally. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. by CMT_Association10
TEC LongSimple trend following for an ETF that keeps moving. Nice alternative whilst we wait for major markets to pick a direction. Longby tradersteve22Updated 0
QQQ Scalping Zones 5/22Outlook - Daily POC has moved up for the past 2 days to support this rally. If we get a gap down to 454 and hold i'll look to go long. If not I wouldn't be suprised if we sold off all the way down to 452 especilly before NVDA earnings. Upside Targets: * 456.05/457/458 Downside Targets: * 455.27/454.69/454.06 Daily Trend Tracker - *QQQ+ *DXY+ *VIX+ *US10Y+by QuantumEdgeAnalytics0
the case for further pain in bondsmaking the case if the parabola fits, seems to fit better than what has been drawn before, what if personal bias can make things seem rosier than they really areby GoodTexture0
Spy Ascending TraiangleTo day we may push pass 531.11 - 531.57 There is a trend line that started on the 17th that now has two touches of support to the upside. Longby HelloUs2
bullish on Uranium bullish on uranium and expect this ETF to breakout soon Support: $17 Resistance I: $43 Resistance II: $100 According to Munro, who is co-chair of the World Nuclear Association’s Nuclear Fuel Demand Working Group, “we are on the cusp of a new nuclear age in which decarbonisation imperatives collide head-on with unrealistic expectations of renewables penetration, leaving nuclear power to wean the world off coal and decarbonise the expanding electrical grid, domestic heating, industrial heating and hard to abate areas of industry including hydrogen production. If nuclear power can achieve its decarbonisation potential around the world, the implications for uranium demand will be astonishing.” Longby youknowramUpdated 2
silver slv update on AMEX:SLV #slv #silver we are looking at a key 3-month resistance being tested, to continue to the upside. slvby awakensoul_3692
Spy is hotLooks like AMEX:SPY can hover here and trade higher from these levels. RSI is hot and momentum is carrying this uptrend. Low volume = sellers not in sight. NASDAQ:NVDA earnings might push it to close above $531.50 by Wednesday. A down day with high volume will be the beginning of a pullback.Longby cheesecake11