Krispy Kreme, Inc.
Long
Updated

Krispy Kreme | DNUT | Long at $3.04

347
Krispy Kreme DNUT has entered and slightly exited my simple moving average "crash" indicator. More often than not, this zone (currently between $1.88 and $2.88) is a bottom indicator. However, this means there is a still a probability that stock could drop to a value less than $2 in the near future (and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets there). But predicting a "true" bottom is a fool's game. Building a position using data-driven decisions is the best strategy.

Fundamentally, DNUT has many economic headwinds and a relatively high probably of bankruptcy in the next 24 months. It brought in $1.6 billion in revenue in 2024 and is a great target for takeover, but that requires a crystal ball. Earnings are anticipated to become positive by 2026, but growth is slow. The dividend yield, currently around 4.8%, may get cut in the near-term to help the company financially (again, crystal ball needed). Short interest is 30% with a float of 78 million... Debt to Equity = 0.90x. Essentially, if it can get through 2025, the company predicts it can turn things around into 2026 and beyond.

So, is this a good investment? Fundamentally, many better options are out there. From a technical analysis perspective, a potential opportunity. Thus, a gamble. I'm not betting the farm here, but at $3.04, DNUT is in a buy zone - with a warning for potentially better entries to emerge in the near future in the $1-$2 range.

Targets:
  1. $3.60
  2. $4.20
Trade active
Target #1 reached for a +18.4% gain.
Trade closed: target reached
Target #2 reached for a +38.2% gain. Exited trade during after-hours at $5.15 for a full 69.4% gain.

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