SENSEX Analysis With Intraday Levels for 14th Oct 2025

SENSEX At A Glance (As of October 13, 2025)
The BSE Sensex closed at 82,327.05 on October 13, 2025, down 173.77 points or 0.21% from the previous close of 82,500.82. The index opened at 82,049.16, hit a high of 82,438.50, and a low of 82,043.14 during the session. This marked the end of a two-day rally, with the decline primarily driven by losses in IT stocks (e.g., Infosys down, contributing -62.61 points) amid US-China tariff concerns under potential Trump policies. Positive contributors included Bajaj Finance (+70.35 points) and Adani Ports (+51.73 points). Overall market breadth was negative, with broader indices like midcaps and smallcaps also slipping 0.3-0.5%.

🛠️ Technical Analysis

Candlestick Patterns and Indicators: The daily chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern after indecision, with the index closing below key moving averages. RSI (14) around 52 (neutral but declining), MACD showing a bearish crossover. Implied volatility (India VIX) edged up to ~11, indicating mild caution.
Support/Resistance: Immediate support at 82,000-82,043 (today's low and 50% Fibonacci retracement). Resistance at 82,500-82,800 (recent highs and 200-DMA). Low IV suggests range-bound trading unless triggered by news.
Option Greeks (for Sensex Options): Near-ATM strikes (around 82,300) have Delta ~0.5/-0.5, moderate Theta decay (~₹10-15/day), and Gamma favoring directional breaks.

Fundamental Analysis

Macroeconomic Cues: FII inflows remained positive (net buy ~₹500 Cr), but DII selling added pressure. Q2 earnings season is underway, with focus on banking (positive RBI liquidity) and IT (H-1B visa risks). Global impacts: US indices mixed (Nasdaq down ~3.56% recently), Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.63%), weighing on sentiment.
Sectoral News: IT dragged the index (down 1-2% on tariff fears), while financials (Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank) provided support. Realty and autos weakened on demand slowdowns.
FII/DII Flows: FII net buyers, DII net sellers, signaling mixed institutional confidence.

Real-Time News Sentiment

Headlines and Announcements: Key stories include US tariff threats on China impacting exports/IT, and corporate updates (e.g., Bharat Forge litigation with no material impact, EFC investor meet). No major RBI commentary; geopolitical stability (e.g., Middle East ceasefires) reduces tail risks.
Discussion on Social Sites & Sentiment: Recent posts highlight market declines ("Bears takeover!"), company-specific updates (e.g., RACL Geartech director change), and neutral-to-bearish views on BSE stocks. Broader discussions on global tariffs add caution.

🔍Intraday Probability Estimates for October 14, 2025 (My OWN VIEW
Based on current after-hours cues (GIFT Nifty indicating a flat-to-lower open, correlated to Sensex), low IV, and bearish momentum:

Upside: 35% – Limited by resistance and global drag, but possible on positive earnings.
Downside: 55% – Higher probability from tariff woes and IT weakness.
Volatile Market (>1% move): 30% – Earnings surprises could trigger, but low VIX caps big swings.
Fundamental Analysis

Macroeconomic Cues: FII inflows remained positive (net buy ~₹500 Cr), but DII selling added pressure. Q2 earnings season is underway, with focus on banking (positive RBI liquidity) and IT (H-1B visa risks). Global impacts: US indices mixed (Nasdaq down ~3.56% recently), Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.63%), weighing on sentiment.
Sectoral News: IT dragged the index (down 1-2% on tariff fears), while financials (Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank) provided support. Realty and autos weakened on demand slowdowns.
FII/DII Flows: FII net buyers, DII net sellers, signaling mixed institutional confidence.

Real-Time News Sentiment

Headlines and Announcements: Key stories include US tariff threats on China impacting exports/IT, and corporate updates (e.g., Bharat Forge litigation with no material impact, EFC investor meet). No major RBI commentary; geopolitical stability (e.g., Middle East ceasefires) reduces tail risks.
SN Sentiment: Recent posts highlight market declines ("Bears takeover!"), company-specific updates (e.g., RACL Geartech director change), and neutral-to-bearish views on BSE stocks. Broader discussions on global tariffs add caution.

Intraday Probability Estimates for October 14, 2025
Based on current after-hours cues (GIFT Nifty indicating a flat-to-lower open, correlated to Sensex), low IV, and bearish momentum:

Upside: 35% – Limited by resistance and global drag, but possible on positive earnings.
Downside: 55% – Higher probability from tariff woes and IT weakness.
Volatile Market (>1% move): 30% – Earnings surprises could trigger, but low VIX caps big swings.
BTST/STBT Trade Setup: BTST (buy calls if closes above 82,300 for gap-up potential, 35% prob). STBT (short puts for downside carry, 55% prob), avoid if VIX spikes.
View of Closing Session (Last 1 Hour): Likely mild selling or consolidation; low volume in cautious environment, watch FII flows.

Probabilities for Day-End Close (From ~82,327)

Higher: 35% (institutional support, but globals dominate).
Lower: 55% (tariff fears emphasized).
Roughly Flat (±0.5%): 10% (low IV favors sideways).

Assumptions: Prioritizing global tariff tensions and negative Asian cues over domestic flows; historical patterns in low-VIX days (60% range-bound) adjusted for sentiment.
Assumptions: Prioritizing global tariff tensions and negative Asian cues over domestic flows; historical patterns in low-VIX days (60% range-bound) adjusted for sentiment.

# "WEEKLY Levels" mentioned in BOX format.

^^^^^^^Plot Levels Using 3 Min, 5 Min Time frame in your Chart for Better Analysis^^^^^^^

L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias.
L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt
L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above.
L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias.
L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt
HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone,
*** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature)

Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart
Color code Used:
Green =. Positive bias.
Red =. Negative bias.

RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change
/ CYCLE Change and Vice Versa.

Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working.
Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillatoror as you "USED to" to Take entry.

⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser.

Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research.
"As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's".
Do comment if Helpful.
In depth Analysis will be added later