Trading isn’t easy; in fact, it’s one of the most complicated ways to make money in the financial world.
I know that’s not what the mainstream narrative tells you. The same narrative that warns “more than 90% of traders lose money” also sells the illusion that you’ll be part of the 10% who don’t, because deep down, we all think we’re different, smarter, faster, more capable than the crowd.
But if you strip away emotion and bias and read that statistic correctly, it’s a harsh truth: you have less than a 10% probability of long-term success. That’s not pessimism; that’s probability. And probability doesn’t lie. Every day, it quietly proves that most “special” traders end up broke, not because markets are unfair, but because they misread the numbers that could have saved them.
After more than 20 years in this game, I’ve noticed one thing every losing trader has in common: they ignore what’s painfully obvious. Trading is numbers in an uncertain world.
Numbers mean math. Put math in an uncertain environment, and the only way to handle it is through probability. Yet most traders fight this reality, chasing signals, news, or “gut feelings” instead of learning how probability actually runs the game.
After working with hundreds of losing traders, I found that this blindness leads to seven recurring mistakes: the same ones that keep the losing rate stuck above 90%.
1. Mistake: Trying to Predict Instead of Projecting
The moment you believe you need to know where the market’s going, you’ve already lost your edge. By definition, the future is uncertain; anything can happen. No system or algorithm can change that.
The game changes when you stop trying to predict what the market will do and start projecting how your account will behave under uncertainty. It’s not about guessing direction; it’s about managing outcomes.
Probability reminds us that uncertainty isn’t our enemy, it’s our playing field. Without it, there would be no opportunity. Don’t focus on prediction; learn to handle what the market does and control its impact on your account value.
📖 Referenced posts: “In a World of Chances, Probability is the King” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
2. Mistake: Judging Success Trade by Trade
If you judge your system by a single trade, you’re missing the point. Trading isn’t a sprint; it’s a marathon. Your edge doesn’t live in one trade, it appears in the average of many.
Focusing on each result drags you into an emotional roller coaster, the highs of winning and the lows of losing. In reality, you’re not reacting to truth; you’re reacting to variance, and variance loves to mislead.
The real measure of your system (your expectancy) doesn’t care about your last trade. It only reveals itself after enough repetitions, as the law of large numbers smooths out noise and exposes your true average performance.
If you want peace of mind, stop zooming in on the moment. Zoom out and focus on the mean, the expected value of your account. That’s the mindset that turns emotions into data and chaos into clarity.
📖 Referenced posts: “Sharpening Your Trading Focus” and “Spying on Your Trading Future.”
3. Mistake: Not Accepting Losses as Part of the Process
I’ve seen it countless times: new traders obsessed with their win rate. Almost every candidate I’ve mentored asks the same question before hiring me: “What’s your winning rate?”
And I get it. In a world obsessed with prediction, it feels natural to think accuracy equals success. But that’s where I correct them: we’re not here to predict; we’re here to make money.
Instead of asking how often a trader is right, ask, “How much money does he keep after losses?” That’s the question that shifts focus from ego to expectancy, from being right to being profitable.
📖 Referenced posts: “Decoding Trading Odds: Demystifying Probability”.
4. Mistake: Misjudging Probability as Too Complicated
Many traders avoid thinking in probabilities because they believe it’s too mathematical. They prefer indicators because they seem easier and more visible. I get it, not everyone loves math. But in trading, probability isn’t complex theory; it’s practical logic.
Think about predicting the weather. When you see a small gray cloud, you don’t say, “It will rain.” You say, “It might rain.” That’s probabilistic thinking: assigning likelihood instead of claiming certainty.
Trading works the same way. Every trade is its own weather forecast. You can’t predict what will happen, but you can estimate what’s likely and prepare for both outcomes. Once you see probability as a decision framework, you stop reacting emotionally and start thinking strategically.
📖 Referenced posts: “In a World of Chances, Probability is the King” and “Decoding Trading Odds: Demystifying Probability.”
5. Mistake: Overleveraging Your Edge
Even with a profitable system, betting too big turns strategy into suicide. Leverage doesn’t just multiply gains; it magnifies mistakes. I’ve seen many good traders destroy solid systems because they couldn’t stay anchored to steady, safe growth. They wanted to accelerate the curve.
But here’s the truth: every time you increase position size, you also increase your risk of ruin exponentially. Great traders know success isn’t about how fast you can grow, but how long you can keep growing.
It’s even worse for traders who don’t know if they have an edge at all. Leverage in the wrong hands is like a driver who thinks that because he can handle a Tesla, he can drive an F1 car. He’s not compounding; he’s just going to hit the wall faster.
And the market knows that. That’s why those aggressive leverage offers exist, they want your money fast.
Knowing how to play the long game is the real alpha.
📖 Referenced posts: “Spying on Your Trading Future” and “Risk Management: The Engine of Expectancy” (upcoming).
6. Mistake: Misunderstanding Variance and Calling It Bad Luck
When things go wrong, most traders think they’re bad traders, or they blame their system and rush to replace it. Or worse, they believe the markets are rigged. In reality, they just don’t understand variance.
Variance is when you take three losses in a row despite perfect setups. It’s not betrayal or bad luck; it’s randomness doing its job. Every system has a natural distribution of wins and losses, and they’ll always appear randomly. Sometimes you’ll win, sometimes you’ll lose. No rule or model can predict exactly when. That’s not broken; that’s just markets being markets.
Neither streak defines your edge, they’re both part of the math. That’s why only expectancy can tell you if you have an edge or just luck.
When traders don’t understand variance, they take it personally. A losing streak feels like punishment; a winning streak feels like mastery. Both are illusions. Expectancy, the expected value of your account, doesn’t care about your feelings. It only reveals your edge over a large enough sample, when randomness smooths out and the real average emerges.
Accept variance as part of the process and trading becomes calmer, simpler, and much more rational.
📖 Referenced posts: “Spying on Your Trading Future” and “Sharpening Your Trading Focus.”
7. Mistake: Replacing Numbers and Logic with Dopamine and Emotion
One of the hardest habits to break in new traders is their need for dopamine. Many don’t come to the market to trade; they come to feel something. They treat trading like entertainment — constant stimulation, adrenaline, and fast feedback.
A typical beginner believes trading means dozens of short-term trades per day, with stops and targets hit constantly, like scrolling through TikTok. Each trade becomes another “like,” another hit of excitement.
I often tell my students, “If you’re here for entertainment, go to the cinema, or better yet, go to Las Vegas. It’ll cost you less, and you’ll leave happier.”
Trading isn’t a game of dopamine; it’s a game of data and probabilities. The more you chase emotional highs, the further you drift from logic and expectancy. When you trade emotions instead of numbers, you stop trading your system and start trading your mood.
📖 Referenced posts: “Sharpening Your Trading Focus” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
Bonus: Trusting the Wrong Sources
Here’s an uncomfortable question: if 90% of traders lose money, what are the odds that most trading education actually works?
If we apply probability to information itself, we’d infer that 90% of the “trading wisdom” online is more likely to produce losses than profits. In other words, there’s a 90% chance your guru is wrong. And that’s before considering how many truly successful traders never share what really works.
So ask yourself: if most people fail, does it make sense to follow what most people do? There’s no formal proof for this, but after two decades in the game, I’ve seen the pattern repeat endlessly. The crowd follows the same noisy ideas... and the crowd loses.
It may not be a comfortable truth, but sometimes the truth that shocks you is the one that sets you free.
Final Thought
Most traders don’t lose because they lack talent; they lose because they fight probability instead of using it. Trading is uncertainty made measurable — a game of math, mindset, and patience.
Learn to think like a risk manager, not a fortune teller.
And remember, if you’re here for entertainment, go to Las Vegas. It’ll cost you less, and you’ll probably leave happier.
Throughout this post, I’ve referenced other entries that explore each of these mistakes in more depth. They’re all part of the How To Lambo series, where I keep breaking down the probabilistic view of trading in plain language: practical, rigorous, and free of jargon.
If you haven’t read them yet, I highly recommend starting with “Probability is the King” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
I know that’s not what the mainstream narrative tells you. The same narrative that warns “more than 90% of traders lose money” also sells the illusion that you’ll be part of the 10% who don’t, because deep down, we all think we’re different, smarter, faster, more capable than the crowd.
But if you strip away emotion and bias and read that statistic correctly, it’s a harsh truth: you have less than a 10% probability of long-term success. That’s not pessimism; that’s probability. And probability doesn’t lie. Every day, it quietly proves that most “special” traders end up broke, not because markets are unfair, but because they misread the numbers that could have saved them.
After more than 20 years in this game, I’ve noticed one thing every losing trader has in common: they ignore what’s painfully obvious. Trading is numbers in an uncertain world.
Numbers mean math. Put math in an uncertain environment, and the only way to handle it is through probability. Yet most traders fight this reality, chasing signals, news, or “gut feelings” instead of learning how probability actually runs the game.
After working with hundreds of losing traders, I found that this blindness leads to seven recurring mistakes: the same ones that keep the losing rate stuck above 90%.
1. Mistake: Trying to Predict Instead of Projecting
The moment you believe you need to know where the market’s going, you’ve already lost your edge. By definition, the future is uncertain; anything can happen. No system or algorithm can change that.
The game changes when you stop trying to predict what the market will do and start projecting how your account will behave under uncertainty. It’s not about guessing direction; it’s about managing outcomes.
Probability reminds us that uncertainty isn’t our enemy, it’s our playing field. Without it, there would be no opportunity. Don’t focus on prediction; learn to handle what the market does and control its impact on your account value.
📖 Referenced posts: “In a World of Chances, Probability is the King” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
2. Mistake: Judging Success Trade by Trade
If you judge your system by a single trade, you’re missing the point. Trading isn’t a sprint; it’s a marathon. Your edge doesn’t live in one trade, it appears in the average of many.
Focusing on each result drags you into an emotional roller coaster, the highs of winning and the lows of losing. In reality, you’re not reacting to truth; you’re reacting to variance, and variance loves to mislead.
The real measure of your system (your expectancy) doesn’t care about your last trade. It only reveals itself after enough repetitions, as the law of large numbers smooths out noise and exposes your true average performance.
If you want peace of mind, stop zooming in on the moment. Zoom out and focus on the mean, the expected value of your account. That’s the mindset that turns emotions into data and chaos into clarity.
📖 Referenced posts: “Sharpening Your Trading Focus” and “Spying on Your Trading Future.”
3. Mistake: Not Accepting Losses as Part of the Process
I’ve seen it countless times: new traders obsessed with their win rate. Almost every candidate I’ve mentored asks the same question before hiring me: “What’s your winning rate?”
And I get it. In a world obsessed with prediction, it feels natural to think accuracy equals success. But that’s where I correct them: we’re not here to predict; we’re here to make money.
Instead of asking how often a trader is right, ask, “How much money does he keep after losses?” That’s the question that shifts focus from ego to expectancy, from being right to being profitable.
📖 Referenced posts: “Decoding Trading Odds: Demystifying Probability”.
4. Mistake: Misjudging Probability as Too Complicated
Many traders avoid thinking in probabilities because they believe it’s too mathematical. They prefer indicators because they seem easier and more visible. I get it, not everyone loves math. But in trading, probability isn’t complex theory; it’s practical logic.
Think about predicting the weather. When you see a small gray cloud, you don’t say, “It will rain.” You say, “It might rain.” That’s probabilistic thinking: assigning likelihood instead of claiming certainty.
Trading works the same way. Every trade is its own weather forecast. You can’t predict what will happen, but you can estimate what’s likely and prepare for both outcomes. Once you see probability as a decision framework, you stop reacting emotionally and start thinking strategically.
📖 Referenced posts: “In a World of Chances, Probability is the King” and “Decoding Trading Odds: Demystifying Probability.”
5. Mistake: Overleveraging Your Edge
Even with a profitable system, betting too big turns strategy into suicide. Leverage doesn’t just multiply gains; it magnifies mistakes. I’ve seen many good traders destroy solid systems because they couldn’t stay anchored to steady, safe growth. They wanted to accelerate the curve.
But here’s the truth: every time you increase position size, you also increase your risk of ruin exponentially. Great traders know success isn’t about how fast you can grow, but how long you can keep growing.
It’s even worse for traders who don’t know if they have an edge at all. Leverage in the wrong hands is like a driver who thinks that because he can handle a Tesla, he can drive an F1 car. He’s not compounding; he’s just going to hit the wall faster.
And the market knows that. That’s why those aggressive leverage offers exist, they want your money fast.
Knowing how to play the long game is the real alpha.
📖 Referenced posts: “Spying on Your Trading Future” and “Risk Management: The Engine of Expectancy” (upcoming).
6. Mistake: Misunderstanding Variance and Calling It Bad Luck
When things go wrong, most traders think they’re bad traders, or they blame their system and rush to replace it. Or worse, they believe the markets are rigged. In reality, they just don’t understand variance.
Variance is when you take three losses in a row despite perfect setups. It’s not betrayal or bad luck; it’s randomness doing its job. Every system has a natural distribution of wins and losses, and they’ll always appear randomly. Sometimes you’ll win, sometimes you’ll lose. No rule or model can predict exactly when. That’s not broken; that’s just markets being markets.
Neither streak defines your edge, they’re both part of the math. That’s why only expectancy can tell you if you have an edge or just luck.
When traders don’t understand variance, they take it personally. A losing streak feels like punishment; a winning streak feels like mastery. Both are illusions. Expectancy, the expected value of your account, doesn’t care about your feelings. It only reveals your edge over a large enough sample, when randomness smooths out and the real average emerges.
Accept variance as part of the process and trading becomes calmer, simpler, and much more rational.
📖 Referenced posts: “Spying on Your Trading Future” and “Sharpening Your Trading Focus.”
7. Mistake: Replacing Numbers and Logic with Dopamine and Emotion
One of the hardest habits to break in new traders is their need for dopamine. Many don’t come to the market to trade; they come to feel something. They treat trading like entertainment — constant stimulation, adrenaline, and fast feedback.
A typical beginner believes trading means dozens of short-term trades per day, with stops and targets hit constantly, like scrolling through TikTok. Each trade becomes another “like,” another hit of excitement.
I often tell my students, “If you’re here for entertainment, go to the cinema, or better yet, go to Las Vegas. It’ll cost you less, and you’ll leave happier.”
Trading isn’t a game of dopamine; it’s a game of data and probabilities. The more you chase emotional highs, the further you drift from logic and expectancy. When you trade emotions instead of numbers, you stop trading your system and start trading your mood.
📖 Referenced posts: “Sharpening Your Trading Focus” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
Bonus: Trusting the Wrong Sources
Here’s an uncomfortable question: if 90% of traders lose money, what are the odds that most trading education actually works?
If we apply probability to information itself, we’d infer that 90% of the “trading wisdom” online is more likely to produce losses than profits. In other words, there’s a 90% chance your guru is wrong. And that’s before considering how many truly successful traders never share what really works.
So ask yourself: if most people fail, does it make sense to follow what most people do? There’s no formal proof for this, but after two decades in the game, I’ve seen the pattern repeat endlessly. The crowd follows the same noisy ideas... and the crowd loses.
It may not be a comfortable truth, but sometimes the truth that shocks you is the one that sets you free.
Final Thought
Most traders don’t lose because they lack talent; they lose because they fight probability instead of using it. Trading is uncertainty made measurable — a game of math, mindset, and patience.
Learn to think like a risk manager, not a fortune teller.
And remember, if you’re here for entertainment, go to Las Vegas. It’ll cost you less, and you’ll probably leave happier.
Throughout this post, I’ve referenced other entries that explore each of these mistakes in more depth. They’re all part of the How To Lambo series, where I keep breaking down the probabilistic view of trading in plain language: practical, rigorous, and free of jargon.
If you haven’t read them yet, I highly recommend starting with “Probability is the King” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.