A sharp rebound off support triggered an outside-weekly reversal from the monthly low, and focus now shifts to a breakout of last-week’s range for guidance on the next directional move.
Support remains unchanged at 1.3978-1.4019- a region defined by the 2022 swing high, the November open, The May high, the 52-week moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the July channel line converges on this threshold next month and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and that a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 2022 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3881 and is backed by the 2025 low-week closed (LWC) at 1.3734.
A break above last week’s range exposes the next key technical hurdle at the 50% retracement of the yearly range and the February LWC at 1.4167/84. Note that the channel resistance converges on this zone into the monthly cross and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next major of the advance. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 2025 HWC and the 61.8% retracement at 1.4292-1.4315 and the objective yearly open at 1.4383.
Bottom line: USD/CAD has been bound within the November range, just above support. Look for a breakout of last week’s range in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 1.3978 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.4183 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of this advance.
-MB
Support remains unchanged at 1.3978-1.4019- a region defined by the 2022 swing high, the November open, The May high, the 52-week moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the July channel line converges on this threshold next month and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and that a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 2022 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3881 and is backed by the 2025 low-week closed (LWC) at 1.3734.
A break above last week’s range exposes the next key technical hurdle at the 50% retracement of the yearly range and the February LWC at 1.4167/84. Note that the channel resistance converges on this zone into the monthly cross and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next major of the advance. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 2025 HWC and the 61.8% retracement at 1.4292-1.4315 and the objective yearly open at 1.4383.
Bottom line: USD/CAD has been bound within the November range, just above support. Look for a breakout of last week’s range in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 1.3978 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.4183 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of this advance.
-MB
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.