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BITCOIN Merry Christmas with symmetry at its very best!First of all allow me to wish everyone Merry Christmas with Tradingshot's best wishes to everyone for great health and prosperity! Now as far as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is concerned, this chart on the 1W time-frame displays once more its symmetry among Cycles at its very best. They key component here is the Supertrend. Every time this indicator turned red (bearish) as it has done now since November 10, BTC has already started its Bear Cycle. The amazing symmetry here is found in the past 5 weeks when the price has been ranging within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). As you can see the moment it broke below the 1W MA100, it also breached the 0.182 Fibonacci retracement level and entered the 0.182 - 0.236 Fib Zone. This has happened every single time with remarkable precision since the 2014 Bear Cycle. The last two Cycles bottomed on the 0.382 Fib at least. So what does that mean for us now/ today? Well first of all, the current Bear Cycle is likely to reach $56500 (0.382 Fib) at least. Secondly, every Bear Cycle bottomed around 44 - 46 weeks after the Supertrend turned red. This gives us a fair time horizon for the potential bottom around September 14 2026. Would you be buying once $56500 hits or come September 2026? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by TradingShot
22
BTC/USDT | More Downside Ahead? Let's Discuss in the Comments!Bitcoin climbed back to $90,500, tapped resistance, and is now trading around $87,800. This bounce looks more like a classic liquidity grab than a trend reversal. I’m still leaning bearish. As long as $90,000 doesn’t flip into solid support, we’re likely heading lower. My next downside targets: $85,000 → $82,700 → $80,500 Nothing’s changed, structure is still weak, and the pressure’s on the bulls. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
27
DOGE - Descending Channel at $0.127 Executive Summary COINBASE:DOGEUSD is trading at approximately $0.127 on Christmas Day, down 58% YTD and trapped in a descending channel on the 4H timeframe. The performance metrics are brutal: -60.92% over the past year. However, multiple analysts are pointing to a cycle fractal that suggests DOGE may be in the "golden pocket" for accumulation before a major bull run. The key level to watch is $0.138 - a reclaim above this Fibonacci level could signal the start of a significant rally. Meanwhile, futures trading volume has surged 53,000% to $260 million, and spot DOGE ETFs are boosting demand. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Bullish Potential with Current Bearish Structure The chart structure is bearish (descending channel), but the cycle fractal and accumulation signals suggest this could be the calm before the storm. Wait for confirmation above $0.138 before turning bullish. Current Market Context - December 25, 2025 Dogecoin is at a critical juncture: Current Price: $0.127 (-1.22% in 24h) Market Cap: $19.39 billion 52-Week Range (Market Cap): $15.59B - $64.11B Volume: 590.15M (below 30D average of 1.13B) Open Interest: $1.51 billion (11.8 billion DOGE) Rank: #9 by market cap Performance Metrics - MOSTLY RED: 1 Week: +0.83% (Green) 1 Month: -15.91% (Red) 3 Months: -42.45% (Red) 6 Months: -19.67% (Red) YTD: -58.30% (Red) 1 Year: -60.92% (Red) The numbers are ugly. DOGE has lost nearly 60% of its value this year. But is this the bottom? THE BULL CASE - Cycle Fractal Points to Imminent Rally The Dogecoin Cycle Fractal Crypto analyst Cryptollica has identified a cycle fractal that shows DOGE may be at the point before it begins its bull run. The fractal has repeated itself at the macro level with four distinct structural points: Zone 1 & 2: "Boredom phases" where volatility died and smart money accumulated Zone 2: Was the launchpad for the massive 2021 parabolic run Zone 4 (CURRENT): Same rounding-bottom formation playing out Price is stabilizing and forming a heavy base just like before previous explosions Key Insight: The analyst states this is the "Golden Pocket" for accumulation. If the fractal plays out as it did in 2020 (Zone 2), the current price action is simply the calm before the storm. RSI at Historical Support Weekly RSI at 32 level - acts as historical floor DOGE has formed a macro bottom every time RSI touched this baseline RSI has reset to this critical support level Indicates sellers are exhausted Momentum is primed to flip The $0.138 Level - Key to Recovery Analyst Kevin has identified $0.138 as THE critical level: Must be reclaimed on 3-day to weekly timeframe closes Would place DOGE back above macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement This Fib level divides bearish and bullish market phases Also aligns with 200-week Simple Moving Average A move above would signal long-term buyers regaining control Next major target after reclaim: $0.46 (liquidity/resistance zone) Futures Volume Surge - 53,000% Dogecoin futures trading volume surged 53,000% to $260 million Driven by Dogecoin ETF activity and derivatives This surge came before recent price stability Could be catalyst for upcoming trend reversal Spot DOGE ETFs launched in late 2025, boosting demand Analyst Price Targets Cryptollica: DOGE could rally significantly and possibly exceed $1 Kevin: Next major resistance at $0.46 after $0.138 reclaim Current resistance targets: $0.148 and $0.196 Support expected in $0.11 range THE BEAR CASE - Descending Channel Still Intact Current Technical Structure The 4H chart shows a clear descending channel: Lower highs and lower lows dominating Price trapped between declining trendlines Channel resistance capping rallies Channel support providing temporary bounces No confirmed breakout yet Bearish structure until proven otherwise Concerning Metrics YTD: -58.30% - Massive underperformance 1 Year: -60.92% - Lost more than half its value Market cap down from $64.11B high to $19.39B Volume below 30-day average (590M vs 1.13B) Open interest dropped 4.03% in last 24 hours Lost crucial $0.13 support level Market Headwinds Broader crypto market in risk-off mode Total crypto market fell below $3 trillion to $2.94 trillion Fed rate expectations pushing out (rates on hold until April) Holiday trading with thin liquidity DOGE utility discussions (sidechains, L2) progressing slowly Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 4 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a descending channel pattern: Descending Channel Characteristics: Upper trendline: Connecting lower highs (resistance) Lower trendline: Connecting lower lows (support) Channel slope: Bearish (declining) Price oscillating between boundaries Current position: Mid-to-lower channel Recent Price Action: Dec 19 surge to $0.134 high Failed to break channel resistance Pulled back to current $0.127 level Now trading in tight range ($0.126-$0.135) Consolidation setting stage for next move Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $0.134-$0.135 - Immediate resistance / recent high $0.138 - CRITICAL LEVEL (Fibonacci 0.382 + 200-week SMA) $0.148 - Next resistance target $0.196 - Secondary resistance $0.46 - Major liquidity zone (if $0.138 reclaimed) $1.00 - Analyst moon target Support Levels: $0.126 - Immediate support / range bottom $0.125 - Key support (must hold for bullish setup) $0.12 - Psychological support $0.11 - Major support zone $0.10 - Deep support / psychological Range Analysis Current consolidation range: Range high: $0.135 Range low: $0.126 Range width: ~$0.009 (7%) Breakout direction will determine next major move Above $0.138 = Bullish confirmation Below $0.12 = Bearish continuation Moving Average Analysis Price below major moving averages 200-week SMA at ~$0.138 area - key resistance MAs sloping downward on shorter timeframes Need to reclaim MAs for trend reversal Currently bearish MA structure RSI Analysis 4H RSI at 42 - showing growing buyer interest Weekly RSI near 32 - historical support level RSI breakthrough would boost momentum Target resistance at $0.134 if RSI breaks higher Oversold conditions on higher timeframes Bitcoin Correlation - Key Catalyst Analyst Kevin notes that DOGE's recovery is tied to Bitcoin: Bitcoin needs to reclaim $88,000-$91,000 range This would require BTC to rally 2-6% from current levels BTC strength would support bullish momentum across crypto Without BTC confirmation, DOGE may continue consolidating Watch BTC as leading indicator for DOGE direction SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $0.138 Trigger Conditions: 3-day or weekly close above $0.138 Bitcoin reclaims $88,000-$91,000 RSI breaks above 50 on weekly Volume surge on breakout Descending channel breakout confirmed Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $0.148 - First resistance Target 2: $0.196 - Secondary resistance Target 3: $0.46 - Major liquidity zone Moon Target: $1.00+ (cycle fractal projection) Bullish Catalysts: Cycle fractal pointing to bull run RSI at historical support (32 level) "Golden Pocket" accumulation zone Futures volume surge (53,000%) Spot DOGE ETFs boosting demand Smart money accumulation phase Rounding bottom formation BEARISH SCENARIO - Breakdown Below $0.12 Trigger Conditions: 4H close below $0.12 Bitcoin weakness below $85,000 Volume spike on breakdown Descending channel continues Open interest continues declining Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $0.11 - Major support zone Target 2: $0.10 - Psychological support Target 3: $0.08-$0.09 - Extended downside Bearish Risks: Descending channel still intact YTD: -58.30% - Severe underperformance Lost $0.13 crucial support Volume below average Open interest declining Broader crypto market weakness Fed rate expectations pushed out Utility development slow NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Continued Range Trading Most likely short-term outcome: Price continues in $0.126-$0.135 range Consolidation before next major move Wait for Bitcoin direction Wait for $0.138 reclaim or $0.12 breakdown Holiday trading keeps volatility low MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL with Bullish Potential This is a genuinely mixed setup: Bearish Factors (Current Reality): Descending channel intact YTD: -58.30%, 1Y: -60.92% Below all major moving averages Lost $0.13 support Volume declining Open interest dropping Bullish Factors (Future Potential): Cycle fractal pointing to bull run RSI at historical support "Golden Pocket" accumulation zone Futures volume surge 53,000% Spot ETFs boosting demand Analysts targeting $0.46 to $1.00+ Rounding bottom forming My Stance: NEUTRAL - Wait for Confirmation The current structure is bearish, but the accumulation signals are compelling. This is NOT the time to short, but also not the time to go heavy long without confirmation. Strategy: Wait for $0.138 reclaim for bullish confirmation Or wait for $0.12 breakdown for bearish confirmation Small accumulation positions acceptable in $0.125-$0.127 zone Don't chase - let the market show its hand Watch Bitcoin for direction Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 3-day or weekly close above $0.138 Volume confirmation Bitcoin above $88,000 Trade Parameters: Entry: $0.138-$0.142 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $0.125 below recent support Target 1: $0.148 (Risk-Reward ~1:0.5) Target 2: $0.196 (Risk-Reward ~1:4) Target 3: $0.46 (Extended) Scenario 2: Accumulation in Range Entry Conditions: Price tests $0.125-$0.127 support Bullish rejection candle RSI holding above 30 Trade Parameters: Entry: $0.125-$0.127 at range support Stop Loss: $0.118 below $0.12 psychological Target 1: $0.134-$0.135 (range high) Target 2: $0.138 (key Fibonacci level) Target 3: $0.148+ (if breakout occurs) Risk-Reward: ~1:1.5 to first target Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 4H close below $0.12 Volume confirmation Bitcoin weakness Trade Parameters: Entry: $0.118-$0.12 on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: $0.128 above recent consolidation Target 1: $0.11 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $0.10 (Risk-Reward ~1:2) Target 3: $0.08-$0.09 (Extended) Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade DOGE is highly volatile - use appropriate size Wait for confirmation before large positions Respect the descending channel until broken Watch Bitcoin correlation closely Holiday trading = thin liquidity Scale into positions rather than all-in Take profits at targets Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $0.11 Descending channel breaks down further Bitcoin crashes below $80,000 Weekly RSI breaks below 25 Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $0.138 on weekly Descending channel breaks to upside Bitcoin reclaims $91,000 Volume surge on breakout Conclusion COINBASE:DOGEUSD is at a critical inflection point. The current structure is bearish with a descending channel and -58% YTD performance. However, multiple analysts are pointing to a cycle fractal that suggests this could be the "golden pocket" for accumulation before a major bull run. The Numbers: Current Price: $0.127 YTD Performance: -58.30% 1-Year Performance: -60.92% Market Cap: $19.39 billion Key Level: $0.138 (Fibonacci 0.382 + 200-week SMA) Key Levels: $0.138 - CRITICAL (reclaim = bullish confirmation) $0.134-$0.135 - Immediate resistance $0.127 - Current price $0.125-$0.126 - Immediate support $0.12 - Psychological support (breakdown level) $0.11 - Major support The Setup: Dogecoin is consolidating in a descending channel with the cycle fractal suggesting accumulation. The $0.138 level is THE key - a reclaim would signal the start of a potential rally to $0.46 and beyond. Without that confirmation, the bearish structure remains intact. Strategy: NEUTRAL stance - wait for confirmation Small accumulation acceptable at $0.125-$0.127 Bullish above $0.138 (targets $0.148, $0.196, $0.46) Bearish below $0.12 (targets $0.11, $0.10) Watch Bitcoin for direction As analyst Cryptollica says: "Ignore Dogecoin now, chase it later." The spring is loading - patience is required.
CRYPTO:DOGEUSD
by officialjackofalltrades
2
86-87K is still a BTC Red lineMerry Xmas, folks! So, last time we said that signals are mixed but we could keep an eye on 86-87K support area. BTC will keep chances on upward action until it holds. And... it still holds. Maybe this is just a result of a thin Xmas market, but BTC tries to form a reversal pattern here. Overall setup doesn't look fascinating, context is weak. But, at the same time, the cash risk is very small, dealing with this H&S pattern here. So, that's the only stuff that I want to share with you today.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is the 4-Year BTC Cycle Still Alive?* Bitcoin is closing 2025 below expectations, even after ETFs, institutional buying, and a pro-crypto backdrop created ideal conditions for a bull market. * Bitcoin’s RSI relative to gold has reached levels that historically appeared near major cycle turning points. * The market looks compressed and tired rather than broken, with price action indicating a decision phase rather than a collapse. Looking at Bitcoin’s recent price action, it’s clear the market isn’t in panic mode, even though 2025 has been frustrating and confidence feels thin. Right now, the BTC price is trading around $87,690.28, and while that’s well below earlier highs, the behavior lately doesn’t look like fear-driven selling. Bitcoin didn’t fall apart in one sharp move. The price rolled over from the highs near $110,000 and spent months grinding lower, slowly wearing traders down. But recently, that rhythm has changed. Instead of accelerating to the downside, the market has started to pause. It feels more like hesitation than fear. Traders seem to be reassessing after a long stretch of disappointment, rather than rushing for the exits. The BTC price is trading inside a broad range where buyers have stepped in repeatedly. Every dip into this zone has found demand, even if the rebounds have been weak and short-lived. That matters because earlier in the year, Bitcoin sliced through multiple support levels without much resistance. This is one of the first areas where selling pressure has clearly slowed. Moves lower are getting absorbed faster. Sellers don’t look as aggressive as they did during the spring and autumn selloffs, while buyers remain cautious but present. It’s not confidence yet, but it’s also not capitulation. On-chain data backs that up. Bitcoin’s market cap has stopped falling sharply and has started to level out instead. Capital isn’t rushing out of the network any longer. It looks more like money is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals. Network activity tells a similar story. Active addresses and transaction counts have cooled, but they are still well above levels seen during true bear market lows. Usage hasn’t collapsed. It has stabilized. So what’s next for Bitcoin? On lower timeframes, the BTC price continues to run into resistance, with each bounce losing momentum before it can turn into a trend. Buyers are showing up near support, but conviction is still missing. That leaves Bitcoin in a wait-and-see phase. Selling pressure has eased, but the market hasn’t shown enough strength yet to confirm a clean move higher. Whether the BTC price can break out of this range or slip back into another stretch of sideways chop will likely shape the next phase of this cycle.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by CoinCodex
BTCUSDT — Intraday Short Continuation | Range Pressure RemainsContext Following the previous short execution from the seller’s zone 88,600 – 88,200, price delivered a clean downside move and reacted from 86,400. However, despite this reaction, there is no clear evidence of sustained buyer strength at the moment. Expectation Within the current intraday structure, continuation toward the 86,000 area remains a valid and logical scenario. Price is still trading under prior supply, and upside acceptance has not been established. Risk Management This is a continuation idea, not a late entry chase. Risk should be reduced relative to standard position sizing and execution considered only with confirmation. Invalidation The intraday short bias will be invalidated only in the case of an aggressive move and firm acceptance above 88,600.
Short
by linkort
ETH/USDT | Ethereum Weekly Update Key Demand Zone Still in Play Ethereum rallied up to $3,450, but failed to hold and is now trading near $2,900. This correction could deepen, and I’m watching the $2,100–$2,700 demand zone closely. It remains one of the strongest institutional zones on the chart. If price returns there, a sharp bullish reaction is highly likely. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
1
BTCUSDT - Range-Bound at $87KExecutive Summary BINANCE:BTCUSDT is trading at approximately $87,740 after a turbulent 2025 that saw Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,272 in October before correcting 30%. The price is now stuck in a tight consolidation range between $85,000 support and $90,000 resistance. While short-term metrics show slight recovery (+1.5% weekly, +3.53% monthly), the bigger picture is concerning: YTD performance is -6.25%, and multiple on-chain indicators suggest we may be entering a late-cycle distribution phase with bear market risk in early 2026. BIAS: NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH - Bullish Potential with Bearish Undertones The short-term structure allows for bullish breakout, but the weight of on-chain evidence and macro factors lean bearish for Q1 2026. Trade the range, respect the levels. Current Market Context - December 23, 2025 Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture: Current Price: $87,825.99 (-0.99% on the day) Day's Range: $86,601.90 - $88,940.00 52-Week Range: $74,508.00 - $126,199.63 All-Time High: $126,272.76 (October 6, 2025) Volume: 9.22K (below 30D average of 17.23K) Down 30.06% from ATH Performance Metrics - MIXED: 1 Week: +1.50% (Green) 1 Month: +3.53% (Green) 3 Months: -21.67% (Red) 6 Months: -18.27% (Red) YTD: -6.25% (Red) 1 Year: -7.83% (Red) The short-term green metrics mask a deeply concerning longer-term picture. Bitcoin is underperforming its 2024 and 2023 seasonal patterns significantly. THE WARNING SIGNS - 5 Charts Suggest Bear Market Risk Multiple on-chain and market-structure indicators are flashing caution: 1. Bitcoin's Apparent Demand Growth Is Rolling Over Demand growth slowing after multiple waves earlier in the cycle While price remained elevated through 2025, demand failed to make new highs This divergence indicates price strength relied more on momentum and leverage than fresh spot buying When demand growth flattens while price stays high, markets shift from accumulation to distribution This often marks early stages of a bear market or long consolidation 2. US Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Losing Momentum ETFs have been the strongest source of structural demand this cycle In 2024, ETF inflows accelerated steadily into year-end Q4 2025 shows inflows flattening and, in some periods, declining ETFs represent long-term capital, not short-term trading When ETF demand slows while price remains high, large buyers are stepping back Without sustained institutional inflows, Bitcoin becomes more vulnerable to derivatives-driven volatility 3. Dolphin Wallets (100-1,000 BTC) Are Reducing Exposure "Dolphins" are typically sophisticated investors and funds Sharp decline in dolphin holdings on a one-year basis Similar behavior appeared in late 2021 and early 2022, ahead of deeper drawdowns This points to risk reduction by experienced holders When this cohort distributes while price remains elevated, it reflects expectations of lower returns ahead 4. Funding Rates Are Trending Lower Across Exchanges Funding rates measure cost to hold leveraged positions Clear downward trend across major exchanges Indicates waning demand for leverage even as price remains relatively high In bull markets, strong rallies are supported by rising funding and persistent long demand Falling funding rates suggest traders are less confident and less willing to pay to stay long This environment often precedes choppy price action or broader trend reversals 5. Bitcoin Broke Below the 365-Day Moving Average The 365-day MA historically separates bull markets from bear markets Bitcoin has now crossed below this level for the first sustained period since early 2022 Previous macro-driven sell-offs in 2024 and early 2025 tested this level but failed to close below it A sustained break signals a shift in long-term momentum Increases probability that rallies will face stronger resistance CRITICAL: None of these signals confirms a full bear market alone. Together, they suggest rising downside risk and weakening support. How Low Could Bitcoin Go? If bear market develops: Bitcoin's realized price is currently near $56,000 (average cost basis of all holders) In prior bear markets, Bitcoin often bottomed near or slightly below this level This doesn't mean Bitcoin must fall to $56,000 But in a full bear scenario, long-term buyers historically step in closer to that zone Wide range of outcomes possible, including prolonged sideways movement rather than sharp decline THE BULL CASE - Wall Street Is Coming Despite the warning signs, major bullish catalysts are emerging: JPMorgan Exploring Crypto Trading Largest US bank considering crypto trading services for institutional clients Assessing spot and derivatives trading products Would represent major evolution for JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has been critical of Bitcoin but bank is expanding blockchain activity In May, Dimon said JPMorgan would allow clients to buy Bitcoin Bank launched tokenized money-market fund (MONY) on Ethereum with $100M initial capital Arranged short-term bond for Galaxy Digital on Solana blockchain Wall Street's Broader Embrace Morgan Stanley offering crypto trading on E*Trade platform (H1 2026) Charles Schwab ($11.6 trillion firm) launching Bitcoin trading (H1 2026) 20% of Schwab clients already own crypto Growing institutional demand as regulatory frameworks clarify Trump administration pledged to make America "crypto capital of the world" JPMorgan Analysts' Price Target JPMorgan analysts projected Bitcoin could climb to $170,000 within 6-12 months Contingent on perpetual futures deleveraging completing Global crypto market valued at ~$3.1 trillion Bitcoin accounts for ~$1.8 trillion Projected to reach new ATH next year as adoption grows Arizona Crypto-Friendly Legislation Senator Wendy Rogers proposed bills to exempt virtual currency from taxation SB 1044: Exempt crypto from state taxation SB 1045: Bar cities/counties from taxing blockchain nodes SCR 1003: Amend constitution to exclude crypto from property tax Arizona already has digital asset reserve law Other states (New Hampshire, Texas) have similar laws Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 4 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a clear consolidation structure: Current Range: MAJOR RESISTANCE: $89,000-$90,500 zone SUPPORT: $86,600-$87,200 zone Price oscillating between these levels Multiple tests of both zones without sustained follow-through Neither bulls nor bears have full control Equilibrium state - buyers step in near support, sellers defend resistance Recent Price Action: Sharp rejection from ~$90,500 area Price dropped to current ~$87,740 level Testing mid-range support Two scenarios visible on chart: Bullish: Break above resistance toward $89,000+ Bearish: Break below support toward $85,000 Key Observations: Volume below 30-day average (9.22K vs 17.23K) - thin liquidity Range-bound trading suggests indecision Breakout direction will determine next major move Holiday period typically sees lower liquidity, amplifying moves Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $88,940 - Day's high / immediate resistance $89,000-$90,500 - MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE $92,000-$93,000 - Secondary resistance (breakout target) $95,000 - Psychological level $100,000 - Major psychological barrier $126,272 - All-time high (October 2025) Support Levels: $87,200 - Immediate support $86,600-$87,000 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE $85,000 - Critical support (strong demand in early December) $82,000-$83,000 - Secondary support $74,508 - 52-week low $56,000 - Realized price (bear market bottom zone) Chart Pattern Analysis Current structure shows a consolidation rectangle : Clear horizontal support at $86,600-$87,200 Clear horizontal resistance at $89,000-$90,500 Price compressing within this range Breakout imminent - direction TBD Volume declining during consolidation (typical) Watch for volume spike on breakout for confirmation Moving Average Analysis Price trading BELOW 365-day moving average - bearish signal This is first sustained break below 365 MA since early 2022 Short-term MAs may be providing temporary support Long-term trend structure has weakened significantly Rallies likely to face resistance at declining MAs Volume Analysis Current volume: 9.22K (significantly below 30D average of 17.23K) Thin liquidity environment Low volume consolidation typical before breakouts Holiday period reducing participation Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout Low volume moves are less reliable Market Structure Assessment Current State: Range-bound with thin liquidity High sensitivity to leverage-driven moves Retail participation appears cautious Institutional flows have slowed Selling pressure primarily retail-driven from leveraged and short-term participants US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings declined less than 5% despite 30%+ drawdown - institutions holding Expert Analysis - Ray Youssef (NoOnes CEO): "BTC's upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone." "From a market-structure perspective, Bitcoin remains stuck in a compressing, range-bound action bout." Bitcoin has failed to deliver on its hedge narrative in 2025, demonstrating heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors rather than trading like digital gold. SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $90,000 Trigger Conditions: Daily close above $90,500 with volume ETF inflows resume/accelerate JPMorgan or other major bank announces crypto trading launch Positive regulatory news Break above 365-day MA Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $92,000-$93,000 - First resistance above range Target 2: $95,000 - Psychological level Target 3: $100,000 - Major psychological barrier Extended: $170,000 (JPMorgan analyst target for 2026) Bullish Catalysts: JPMorgan crypto trading launch Morgan Stanley E*Trade crypto (H1 2026) Charles Schwab Bitcoin trading (H1 2026) Arizona crypto tax exemption bills Trump administration pro-crypto policies ETF inflow recovery Institutional adoption acceleration BEARISH SCENARIO - Breakdown Below $85,000 Trigger Conditions: Daily close below $85,000 ETF outflows accelerate Funding rates continue declining Dolphin wallets continue distributing Break below 365-day MA confirmed Macro risk-off event Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $82,000-$83,000 - Secondary support Target 2: $74,508 - 52-week low Target 3: $65,000-$70,000 - Major support zone Bear Market Bottom: $56,000 area (realized price) Bearish Risks: 5 on-chain indicators warning of bear market Below 365-day MA for first time since 2022 Demand growth rolling over ETF inflows losing momentum Dolphin wallets reducing exposure Funding rates trending lower YTD performance negative (-6.25%) 30% down from ATH NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Continued Range Trading Most likely short-term outcome: Price continues oscillating between $85,000-$90,000 Low volume holiday trading Wait for January 2026 for directional clarity Institutions reassess positions in new year Watch for ETF flow data in early January MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH The evidence is genuinely mixed, but the weight leans bearish: Bearish Factors (Dominant): 5 on-chain indicators warning of distribution phase Below 365-day MA - historically bearish Demand growth diverging from price ETF inflows slowing Sophisticated holders (dolphins) reducing exposure Funding rates declining YTD, 3M, 6M, 1Y all negative 30% down from ATH with no recovery momentum Bullish Factors (Secondary): Wall Street adoption accelerating (JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Schwab) Pro-crypto regulatory environment under Trump Arizona tax exemption bills JPMorgan $170K price target Institutions holding ETF positions despite drawdown Short-term metrics slightly positive My Stance: NEUTRAL with Bearish Lean I believe the path of least resistance is sideways to down in Q1 2026. The on-chain data is too concerning to ignore. However, Wall Street adoption could provide a floor and eventually drive recovery. Strategy: Trade the range - buy support, sell resistance Don't get caught in the middle Respect $85,000 as critical support Respect $90,000 as critical resistance Wait for breakout confirmation before directional bets Reduce position size given uncertainty Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 4H candle closes above $90,500 Volume exceeds recent average ETF inflows positive Trade Parameters: Entry: $90,500-$91,000 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $88,000 below recent support Target 1: $93,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $95,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.8) Target 3: $100,000 (Extended) Scenario 2: Range Trade - Buy Support Entry Conditions: Price tests $86,600-$87,200 support zone Bullish rejection candle Volume spike on bounce Trade Parameters: Entry: $86,800-$87,200 at support Stop Loss: $85,500 below support zone Target 1: $89,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.5) Target 2: $90,500 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Scale out at resistance Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 4H candle closes below $85,000 Volume confirmation ETF outflows accelerating Trade Parameters: Entry: $84,500-$85,000 on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: $87,500 above recent support Target 1: $82,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $78,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Target 3: $74,500 (52-week low) Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade (reduced due to uncertainty) Thin liquidity = amplified moves - use wider stops Holiday period trading - expect erratic price action Watch ETF flow data closely Monitor on-chain metrics for trend confirmation Don't fight the range - trade within it Scale out at targets rather than all-or-nothing Be prepared for extended consolidation Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $85,000 on daily timeframe ETF outflows accelerate significantly Funding rates go deeply negative Dolphin distribution accelerates Break below 52-week low ($74,508) Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $93,000 with volume ETF inflows surge Reclaim 365-day moving average JPMorgan announces crypto trading launch Major institutional adoption news Conclusion BINANCE:BTCUSDT is at a critical juncture. After hitting an all-time high of $126,272 in October 2025, Bitcoin has corrected 30% and is now stuck in a consolidation range between $85,000 and $90,000. The Concerning Data: 5 on-chain indicators warning of potential bear market in 2026 Below 365-day MA for first time since 2022 Demand growth diverging from price ETF inflows losing momentum Sophisticated holders reducing exposure YTD: -6.25%, 3M: -21.67%, 6M: -18.27% The Hopeful Data: JPMorgan exploring crypto trading Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab launching crypto in H1 2026 Arizona crypto tax exemption bills JPMorgan analysts target $170,000 Institutions holding ETF positions despite drawdown Key Levels: $90,000-$90,500 - MAJOR RESISTANCE (breakout level) $86,600-$87,200 - MAJOR SUPPORT (current test) $85,000 - CRITICAL SUPPORT (must hold) $70,000 - Realized price (bear market bottom zone) The Setup: Bitcoin is range-bound with thin liquidity. The on-chain data suggests we may be in a late-cycle distribution phase with bear market risk in early 2026. However, Wall Street adoption is accelerating, which could provide a floor. Strategy: Trade the range - don't predict the breakout Buy $86,600-$87,200 support with stops below $85,000 Sell $89,000-$90,500 resistance Wait for confirmed breakout before directional bets Reduce position size given mixed signals Watch January 2026 for clarity The market is at a decision point. Let price action guide you, not predictions.
by officialjackofalltrades
ZCASH expected to crash brutally to $32.00Zcash (ZECUSD) has been the revelation of this Bull Cycle as it's been the last major coin to rally from mid September to mid November, outside of the main Altseason. It broke above last Cycle's Top but for more than a month, it's been showing clear signs that the market has peaked. The last indicator to confirm that is the 1W MACD, which has completed a Bearish Cross. ZEC's main long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the February 20 2017 Low and the recent Cycle Top is technically a Lower High, which structurally initiates a Bearish Leg. This Bearish Leg is the market's new Bear Cycle. The previous two Bear Cycles bottomed on the 1.05 Fibonacci extension, dropping dramatically by -97.94% and -95.78% respectively. As a result, we have a minimum Target of $32.00 (-95.78%) and can see an overextension to $13.00 (Fib 1.05), which is riskier. The most effective indicator for a long-term buy again regardless of the price, is when the 1M MACD forms a Bullish Cross. Also, see how well the Sine Waves grasp the cyclical behavior of this pattern, timing both the Tops and Bottoms very well. We also need to mention the 1W Golden Cross, which seems to be formed just before a Bull Cycle peaks. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:ZECUSDShort
by TradingShot
10
Solana Price Prediction: SOL at a Make-or-Break Moment* The SOL price is pressing into a long-term resistance trendline that has capped every recent recovery attempt, making this level critical for the next move. * On-chain data shows cooling activity rather than capitulation, indicating consolidation as SOL trades near a decision point. * A confirmed breakout could shift momentum higher, while rejection keeps downside risks in focus around key support zones. When you zoom out and look at Solana's recent price action, it’s clear the market isn’t in panic mode anymore, even after a long and frustrating decline. The SOL price didn’t just drift lower quietly. The price rolled over from earlier highs and spent weeks grinding down, breaking confidence along the way. But lately, the behavior looks different. Markets are accepting a pause rather than a breakdown; it feels like taking stock after the recent damage. Right now, the SOL price is trading around the $120–$130 zone, with $126.18 sitting near the middle. Just beneath that is a well-defined support zone spanning $110 to $120 that has held firm through multiple tests. Each dip into that zone has been bought, even if the rebounds haven’t been strong. That matters because after slicing through multiple levels during the downtrend, this is the first area where selling pressure has clearly slowed. Moves lower are getting absorbed faster, suggesting sellers are losing urgency, even if buyers aren’t fully confident yet. On-chain data supports that view. Solana’s market cap has stopped falling sharply and has started to level out. Capital isn’t rushing out of the ecosystem anymore, which often points to consolidation rather than continued distribution. Network activity tells a similar story. Active addresses and transfer counts have cooled, but they remain well above bear-market lows, signaling usage is stabilizing rather than collapsing. What’s next for SOL? The biggest hurdle is still overhead resistance. On lower timeframes, the SOL price continues to respect a clean descending trend line that has rejected every bounce. Each attempt has stalled quickly, showing buyers are cautious and conviction remains limited. That trend line is the key level. A break and hold above the $135–$140 area would significantly improve the structure. In case the price can’t push through higher levels, another rejection could push SOL lower toward the $110-$120 support area, where multiple tests could pose a threat of steep declines. Currently, Solana is in a wait-and-see moment. Although the selling pressure has receded, the market chart has yet to indicate a willingness on the part of buyers to dominate the market.
by CoinCodex
XMRUSD - Privacy Rally Explodes +143% YTD Executive Summary KRAKEN:XMRUSD is trading at approximately $469.71 after an extraordinary year that has seen the privacy coin surge +143% YTD and +155% over the past 12 months. Monero recently hit a 52-week high of $497.75 and is now consolidating just below the critical $500 psychological resistance. The privacy narrative is on fire - Cardano's Midnight protocol launch, rising surveillance concerns, and the EU's 2027 privacy coin ban have created a perfect storm of demand. However, with RSI at 84 (overbought) and price near yearly highs, the question is: breakout to $1,000+ or pullback to consolidate gains? BIAS: BULLISH - But Overbought Caution Required The trend is undeniably bullish. The fundamentals support continued upside. But technicals warn of potential short-term pullback before the next leg higher. Current Market Context - December 22, 2025 Monero's performance has been nothing short of spectacular: Current Price: $469.71 (-0.25% on the day) Day's Range: $453.05 - $483.69 52-Week Range: $183.02 - $497.75 52-Week High: $497.75 (hit last week) Market Cap: $8.67 billion 24h Trading Volume: $171.27 million Performance Metrics - ALL GREEN: 1 Week: +14.90% 1 Month: +40.05% 3 Months: +62.54% 6 Months: +49.34% YTD: +143.09% 1 Year: +155.28% This is the BEST performing major cryptocurrency of 2025. Monero has massively outperformed Bitcoin, Ethereum, and virtually every other top 20 coin. THE PRIVACY NARRATIVE - Why XMR Is Exploding 1. EU Privacy Coin Ban (2027) - Bullish Paradox The European Union confirmed plans to prohibit exchanges from listing privacy coins like Monero starting in 2027, citing anti-money laundering concerns. This follows increased scrutiny after high-profile hacks and ransomware attacks. The Paradox: Short-term BULLISH: Users accumulating XMR pre-ban Creates urgency to acquire before restrictions Validates Monero's core value proposition - if governments want to ban it, it must work Long-term risk: Liquidity could dry up if major exchanges delist Monero's fungibility remains key defense against regulatory sidelining 2. Midnight Protocol Sparks Privacy Rally (Dec 20, 2025) Cardano's Midnight protocol launched NIGHT, a privacy token using zero-knowledge proofs. While not directly tied to Monero, the project reignited interest in privacy technology across the entire sector. XMR rose 18% weekly alongside Zcash Privacy tech is back in focus Rising concerns over digital surveillance driving demand Monero benefits from sector momentum Competition from newer privacy solutions exists, but XMR remains the gold standard 3. Technical Breakout Gains Traction (Dec 22, 2025) XMR surged past its 50-day EMA ($449) Shielded transaction volume hitting ALL-TIME HIGHS Analysts note bullish Wyckoff accumulation patterns Rising open interest (+10% weekly) suggests leveraged bets on continued privacy demand Added to CoinDesk 80 Index - reflecting growing market presence 4. Institutional Interest Growing XMR added to CoinDesk 80 Index Increased futures open interest Growing market presence despite regulatory headwinds Privacy as a feature becoming more valued, not less Development Updates - Bullish Fundamentals Monero developers have been extremely active in late 2025: Security Patches (November 2025): Ledger hardware wallet vulnerability patched (view-key export bug) CLI v0.18.4.4 update addressed critical edge case Strengthens trust in hardware wallet integrations Spy Node Defense - "Fluorine Fermi" Upgrade (October 2025): IP subnet filtering introduced to counter surveillance Disrupts tactics used by firms like Chainalysis Complements existing Dandelion++ protections Directly reinforces untraceable transactions RPC Fuzzing Milestone (November 2025): Achieved 100% fuzzing coverage for RPC endpoints Funded by MagicGrants Reduces attack vectors for hackers Hardens nodes against exploits FCMP++ Scaling Prep (November 2025): Full-Chain Membership Proofs alpha testing finalized Beta stressnet expected Q1 2026 Could enable lighter nodes and better scalability Aims to solidify Monero as most private Layer 1 2026 Roadmap - Major Upgrades Coming FCMP++ Beta Stressnet (Q1 2026) - Scaling decisions finalized Bulletproofs++ (2026) - 30% smaller transactions, 40% faster verification Seraphis & Jamtis (2026) - Enhanced anonymity protocols GetMonero.org Redesign (2026) - Improved user experience Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 2 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a textbook bullish structure: Ascending Channel Pattern: Clear ascending channel established over past weeks Higher highs and higher lows consistently forming Channel support: Rising trendline from lows Channel resistance: Parallel line at highs Price currently in upper half of channel Recent Price Action: Price hit resistance zone near $490-$500 Pulled back and now consolidating Currently in a smaller consolidation range ($455-$490) Fibonacci retracement levels visible (0.5 and 0.6 levels) Testing mid-channel support Key Observations: 52-week high of $497.75 represents immediate resistance $500 psychological level is THE level to watch Support zone at $407-$410 area (channel bottom) Strong uptrend intact - no signs of reversal yet Consolidation after 52-week high is healthy, not bearish Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $483-$490 - Immediate resistance (recent highs) $497.75 - 52-week high $500 - CRITICAL psychological resistance $550 - Next major resistance if $500 breaks $600 - Secondary target $1,000 - Major psychological target (community expectation) Support Levels: $453-$460 - Immediate support (day's low area) $449 - 50-day EMA (key moving average) $430-$440 - Secondary support $407-$410 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE (channel bottom) $380-$390 - Deep support $350 - Extended support if correction deepens Moving Average Analysis Price trading well above 50-day EMA ($449) All major moving averages sloping upward Golden cross patterns on multiple timeframes MAs providing dynamic support on pullbacks Trend structure extremely bullish RSI Analysis - OVERBOUGHT WARNING RSI currently at 84 - OVERBOUGHT territory This is the primary caution signal Overbought RSI doesn't mean immediate reversal In strong trends, RSI can stay overbought for extended periods However, pullbacks from overbought levels are common Watch for RSI divergence as potential warning sign Volume Analysis 24h volume: $171.27 million Volume supporting the uptrend Shielded transaction volume at ALL-TIME HIGHS Open interest rising (+10% weekly) Healthy volume profile for continuation Community Sentiment - Extremely Bullish Bull Case - $1,000+ Targets @olgerd_butko: "Monero screams insta teleportation above 1k. Privacy by default. No hype. Just real facts." @soontzu: "Monero has only 0.2% of total crypto value. With XMR supply matching BTC's, $90k BTC implies massive XMR upside." - This comparison suggests theoretical $1,500+ XMR price if adoption parity occurs. Bear Case - Regulatory Concerns @Nicat_eth: "Monero edged lower as exchange delistings and privacy scrutiny intensify." Bearish pressure stems from shrinking liquidity on some exchanges, though price action has defied this concern. Regulatory Landscape - Double-Edged Sword Delistings and Restrictions: Kraken halted XMR for UK users (late 2024) Kraken halted XMR for EEA users (November 2025) Exodus wallet ended XMR support (August 2025) EU ban coming in 2027 Why This Is Actually Bullish (Short-Term): Validates Monero's privacy effectiveness Creates urgency to accumulate before restrictions Proves the technology works as intended Decentralized exchanges and P2P trading remain available Monero's fungibility makes it resistant to blacklisting SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $500 Trigger Conditions: Daily close above $500 with volume RSI holds above 70 without major divergence Continued privacy narrative momentum Bitcoin remains stable or bullish Ascending channel breakout to upside Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $550 - First resistance above $500 Target 2: $600 - Secondary target Target 3: $750 - Extended target Moon Target: $1,000+ (community expectation) Bullish Catalysts: FCMP++ beta stressnet success (Q1 2026) Continued privacy rally momentum EU ban fears driving accumulation Shielded transactions continuing to hit ATHs Altcoin season rotation Bulletproofs++ and Seraphis upgrades BEARISH SCENARIO - Pullback to Support Trigger Conditions: Rejection at $500 with bearish candle RSI divergence forms (lower highs on RSI, higher highs on price) Break below ascending channel support Broader crypto market weakness Major exchange delisting announcement Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $449 - 50-day EMA retest Target 2: $430-$440 - Secondary support Target 3: $407-$410 - Channel bottom / major support Extended: $350-$380 if channel breaks Bearish Risks: RSI at 84 - overbought Near 52-week high - profit-taking likely Regulatory headlines could spook market Thin liquidity on some exchanges Broader crypto correction risk NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Consolidation Most likely short-term outcome: Price consolidates between $450-$490 RSI cools off from overbought levels Builds base for next leg higher Healthy consolidation after massive rally Watch for breakout direction MY ASSESSMENT - BULLISH WITH CAUTION The weight of evidence strongly favors bulls: +143% YTD performance speaks for itself Privacy narrative is the strongest it's been in years Development activity is robust Shielded transactions at ATH Community sentiment extremely bullish Ascending channel intact All timeframes showing bullish structure However, caution is warranted: RSI at 84 is overbought Near 52-week high - natural resistance $500 is major psychological barrier Some profit-taking expected Regulatory headlines could cause volatility My Stance: BULLISH - Buy Dips Strategy I believe XMR will eventually break $500 and continue higher. The fundamentals and narrative support it. However, I would not chase at current levels with RSI at 84. Instead: Wait for pullback to $449-$460 area for better entry Or wait for confirmed breakout above $500 with volume Avoid buying in the middle of the range Trade Framework Scenario 1: Breakout Trade Above $500 Entry Conditions: Daily candle closes above $500 Volume exceeds recent average RSI holds above 65 (not diverging) Trade Parameters: Entry: $505-$515 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $475 below recent support Target 1: $550 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $600 (Risk-Reward ~1:2) Target 3: $750 (Extended) Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Support Entry Conditions: Price pulls back to $449-$460 zone RSI cools to 50-60 range Bullish rejection candle at support Ascending channel support holds Trade Parameters: Entry: $450-$460 on support test Stop Loss: $420 below channel support Target 1: $490-$500 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.5) Target 2: $550 (Risk-Reward ~1:3) Target 3: $600 (Extended) Scenario 3: Channel Bottom Buy Entry Conditions: Price tests $407-$410 major support zone Strong bounce with volume RSI oversold or near oversold Trade Parameters: Entry: $410-$420 at channel bottom Stop Loss: $385 below support zone Target 1: $460-$470 (Risk-Reward ~1:2) Target 2: $500 (Risk-Reward ~1:3.5) Target 3: $550+ (Extended) Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 2-3% max risk per trade Respect overbought RSI - don't chase Use hard stops - privacy coins can be volatile Scale into positions rather than all-in entries Take partial profits at each target (33% each) Move stop to breakeven after first target Monitor regulatory news closely Be aware of lower liquidity on some exchanges Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $407 (channel bottom) Ascending channel breaks down RSI divergence confirms with lower price Major exchange delisting causes panic Bitcoin crashes below $85,000 Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $500 with volume RSI makes new highs with price Shielded transactions continue hitting ATHs Privacy narrative accelerates further Conclusion KRAKEN:XMRUSD is the standout performer of 2025 with +143% YTD gains. The privacy narrative is firing on all cylinders - EU ban fears, Midnight protocol launch, surveillance concerns, and development upgrades have created a perfect storm for Monero. The Numbers: YTD Performance: +143.09% 1-Year Performance: +155.28% 52-Week High: $497.75 Current Price: $469.71 RSI: 84 (Overbought) Market Cap: $8.67 billion Key Levels: $500 - CRITICAL resistance / breakout level $497.75 - 52-week high $449 - 50-day EMA support $407-$410 - Major support zone (channel bottom) The Setup: Monero is consolidating just below its 52-week high after an incredible rally. The trend is bullish, fundamentals are strong, and the privacy narrative is the best it's been in years. However, RSI at 84 warns of potential short-term pullback. Strategy: Don't chase at current levels Buy dips to $449-$460 support Or buy confirmed breakout above $500 Targets: $550, $600, $750+ Stop below $420 or channel support The path of least resistance is higher. Privacy is becoming more valuable, not less. Monero's technology is proven, development is active, and the community is committed. The EU ban paradoxically validates everything Monero stands for. $1,000 XMR is not a meme - it's a matter of when, not if. This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
CRYPTO:XMRUSDLong
by officialjackofalltrades
BTC 1W Update: Looking good so far this week BTC Update: Bitcoin is working hard to establish a new short-term bottom here after the recent selloff. The price action over the past several sessions shows repeated attempts to push lower being absorbed, with buyers stepping in and preventing further downside follow-through. This kind of basing behavior suggests the market is trying to stabilize rather than roll straight into another impulsive leg down. Reclaiming and holding above the ~$90K area is an important development. While this doesn’t confirm a full trend reversal yet, it does shift the immediate risk away from straight downside continuation and toward consolidation and volatility. The structure looks messy and overlapping, which is typical during bottoming processes, especially after a sharp corrective move. With the holiday season approaching, I wouldn’t be surprised to see increased volatility as liquidity thins and positioning gets adjusted. Whipsaws around this range would be normal as the market searches for acceptance and a clearer direction. As long as BTC continues to hold above the recent lows and defend higher timeframe support, this still looks like a basing phase rather than a breakdown. For now, the focus is on whether BTC can continue building higher lows above $90K and eventually reclaim higher resistance levels. Until then, expect chop and volatility, but the effort to form a bottom here is becoming more apparent.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by OnchainNewsBlog
1
BITCOIN 'From Denial of the Bear Cycle to Bitcoin going to 0'We've been showing you since September why Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was structured to start a new Bear Cycle in October, mostly based on the very accurate 4-year Cycle Theory. Recently we've published analyses of the last indicators that practically confirmed that the market has already entered this Bear Cycle. Today, with a combination of the Pi Cycle bands and the Aroon Oscillator, we basically display the investor mentality as the market transitions from Bull to Bear and again back to Bull. First of all, even the 3W time-frame has confirmed that by breaking a closing a 3W candle below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), BTC confirmed in late October the start of the Bear Cycle. As you can see that happened before on December 27 2021, May 07 2018 and August 04 2014. Every time that happened, the Bear Cycle was a fact. We are now within the 1W MA50 - Pi Cycle (green) Support trend-line Zone, which is part of the 'Denial of Bear Cycle' Phase, where the majority of the market doesn't/ can't accept the trend change. Below the Pi Cycle Support starts the 'Bitcoin going to 0' hysteria where the majority of the market starts turning from bullish to bearish, having accepted the Bear Cycle, making extravagant calls on Bitcoin's potential bottom. This is when the very reliable Aroon Oscillator turns bearish below 0.00. Once this hits its Buy Zone, it has historically been a fair time to start buying again for the long-term. That is when bearishness across the market is at its peak and of course when smart money start buying massively again. So do you think that's a good framework to follow? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
31
BTC IS BALANCING. 91K Bounce is possible.Morning folks, Last time we decided to stay aside until some signs of stabilization will appear. Now I can't say, that BTC picture looks inspiring but, with coming the new Fed QE tranche this week for ~7 Bln and thin pre-Xmas market, it quite possible to show the minor bounce at least. I would consider ~91K as the target point against "C" point lows. If C point will be broken we get strong downside action. In some degree, BTC has no option but to start upside action to keep intraday bullish context.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
XRPUSD - ETF Inflows Hit $1.2B But Whales Dumpingb]Executive Summary BITSTAMP:XRPUSD is trading at approximately $1.92 after recovering from recent lows, currently testing the critical $1.95 resistance level. Despite the historic launch of US spot XRP ETFs accumulating $1.2 billion in assets with ZERO negative outflow days, the price remains under pressure. On-chain data reveals a troubling divergence: while retail piles into ETFs, whales have been systematically offloading holdings on exchanges. This analysis examines whether XRP can break through $1.95 resistance or if continued whale selling will push price toward the $1.50-$1.66 support zone. NEUTRAL BIAS - Two Scenarios Presented I'm presenting both bullish and bearish scenarios because the data is genuinely mixed. ETF inflows are historically bullish, but whale behavior is bearish. Let the market show its hand. Current Market Context - December 21, 2025 XRP finds itself at a fascinating crossroads: Price: $1.9249 (up 0.18% on the day) Day's Range: $1.9014 - $1.9257 52-Week Range: $1.6106 - $3.662 Market Cap: $116.52 billion (battling BNB for #3 spot) 24h Trading Volume: $2.36 billion Down 50% from July 2025 ATH of $3.65 The broader context: Crypto market shed over $1.3 trillion since October XRP down 30%+ over past three months Fed hawkishness pressuring all risk assets Yet XRP ETFs seeing unprecedented inflows THE BIG STORY: ETF Success vs. Whale Dumping Historic ETF Launch - $1.2 Billion in Assets Canary Capital launched the first US spot XRP ETF, hitting nearly $250 million in volume on its first day - a RECORD for non-Ethereum altcoin ETFs. The numbers are impressive: Total XRP ETF Assets: $1.2 billion Net Inflows: $1 billion since launch Canary XRP ETF: $335 million AUM (market leader) 21Shares: $250+ million Grayscale: $220+ million Bitwise and Franklin Templeton also participating ZERO negative outflow days since debut This should be massively bullish. With Bitcoin and Ethereum, ETF launches drove significant price appreciation. So why isn't XRP responding? The Whale Problem - On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA uncovered the issue: whales started offloading their holdings on exchanges as ETF expectations heightened. They provided the sell-side liquidity for retail investors buying the ETF launch news. Key findings from Exchange Inflow data: Majority of inflows coming from 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands (whales) After each major inflow spike, price forms lower highs and lower lows Supply is overwhelming demand despite ETF buying Whales not aggressively dumping, but continuous supply increase keeps pushing price lower This explains why XRP faces selling pressure each time it approaches $1.95 CRITICAL: Exchange inflows would need to dry up first before XRP can see a sustained bullish run. Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 45 Minute Timeframe The chart shows a clear pattern evolution: Phase 1 - Descending Channel (Previous Weeks): Price was trapped in a descending channel/wedge pattern Lower highs and lower lows dominated Breakdown from the channel led to capitulation Phase 2 - V-Bottom Recovery: Sharp selloff found support at major support zone V-shaped recovery initiated Price reclaimed lost ground quickly Phase 3 - Ascending Channel (Current): Price now trading within an ascending channel Higher lows forming off the bottom Currently testing upper resistance of the channel Fair Value Gap (FVG) identified in the middle of the range Decision point: breakout or rejection? Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $1.95 - CRITICAL resistance (whale selling zone, repeated rejections) $2.00 - Psychological round number resistance $2.10-$2.15 - Secondary resistance zone $2.50 - Major resistance / bullish target $3.00 - Major psychological level $3.65 - All-time high (July 2025) Support Levels: $1.90 - Immediate support (current price area) $1.82-$1.87 - FIRST MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE (historical buying activity) $1.77 - CRITICAL SUPPORT (large accumulation zone per Glassnode) $1.66 - Secondary support $1.50-$1.60 - Deep support if whale selling continues $0.79 - Next meaningful support if $1.77 breaks (THIN LIQUIDITY between) WARNING: Ali Martinez's Glassnode data shows a THIN LIQUIDITY ZONE below $1.77. If that level breaks, there's limited support until $0.79. This is a critical risk factor. Chart Pattern Analysis Current structure shows an ascending channel within a larger recovery: Channel support: Rising trendline from recent lows Channel resistance: Parallel line connecting recent highs Price currently testing upper channel resistance near $1.95 Fair Value Gap (FVG) sits in the middle of the range - potential retest zone Two clear scenarios: breakout above channel or rejection back to FVG/support Fibonacci Analysis Measuring from the July ATH ($3.65) to recent lows: Current price ($1.92) represents approximately 47% decline from ATH Key Fib levels to watch for recovery targets 0.382 retracement would target ~$2.50 area 0.5 retracement would target ~$2.70 area Fundamental Analysis Bullish Fundamentals 1. XRP ETF Ecosystem Thriving $1.2 billion in assets - unprecedented for altcoin ETF Zero negative outflow days Multiple major issuers participating (Canary, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton) Institutional infrastructure now established 2. Ripple Ecosystem Developments XRPL Lending Protocol launching for institutions Fixed-term, fixed-rate loans (30-180 days) Secured by Single Asset Vaults Validator voting expected late January 2026 Protocol-native credit markets coming to XRPL 3. Ripple Escrow System - Institutional Design According to XRP investor Lord Belgrave, Ripple's escrow mechanism was deliberately structured for institutional deployment: 55 billion XRP locked in escrow contracts 1 billion XRP scheduled for release monthly 700-800 million typically re-locked Only 200-300 million effectively released monthly NDAs with institutions across Europe, Middle East, Asia Discussions allegedly included central banks, IMF, BIS NDAs may be nearing disclosure phase as systems move to active deployment 4. Banks May Favor Higher XRP Price Finance expert Dr. Camila Stevenson argues: Banks look at whether a system can handle stress and move large sums XRP has fixed supply - price is the only way to support larger volumes Banks moving billions prefer fewer units representing more value Fewer tokens = simpler settlement, less slippage risk Higher XRP price could support smoother transfers at scale 5. Market Cap Battle XRP market cap: $116.36 billion BNB market cap: $117.71 billion Only $1.35 billion difference XRP vying for #3 spot in crypto Bearish Fundamentals 1. Whale Selling Pressure 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands driving exchange inflows Whales offloaded as ETF expectations heightened Continuous supply increase overwhelming demand Price forms lower highs after each inflow spike $1.95 resistance repeatedly defended by sellers 2. Thin Liquidity Risk Below $1.77, next meaningful support is $0.79 Limited accumulation between these levels If $1.77 breaks, could see rapid decline 3. Analyst Skepticism on Altcoin ETFs Markus Thielen (10x Research founder) predicts: Most non-Bitcoin crypto ETFs unlikely to achieve lasting success Institutional demand centers on Bitcoin Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative resonates with institutions Altcoins like XRP lack compelling institutional narrative 4. Macro Headwinds Crypto market shed $1.3 trillion since October Fed projecting only two rate cuts for 2026 Risk-off sentiment persisting XRP down 30%+ over three months Analysts warn of potential cooling period in 2026 5. Price Performance Lagging 7-Day: -2.78% 1-Month: -12.91% 3-Month: -7.49% Down 50% from ATH despite ETF success ETF inflows not translating to price appreciation SCENARIO ANALYSIS - NEUTRAL STANCE BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $1.95 Trigger Conditions: Daily close above $1.95 with volume confirmation Exchange inflows from whales decrease significantly ETF inflows continue/accelerate Bitcoin stabilizes above $95,000 Break above ascending channel resistance Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $2.00 - Psychological level Target 2: $2.15-$2.20 - Secondary resistance Target 3: $2.50 - Major resistance / analyst target Extended: $3.00+ if momentum sustains Bullish Catalysts to Watch: XRPL Lending Protocol validator voting (late January 2026) Potential NDA disclosures from institutional partners Continued ETF inflows Altcoin season rotation (expected January 2026) XRP flipping BNB for #3 market cap BEARISH SCENARIO - Rejection at $1.95 Trigger Conditions: Rejection candle at $1.95 with increased volume Whale exchange inflows continue/increase Break below ascending channel support Bitcoin weakness below $90,000 ETF inflows slow significantly Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $1.82-$1.87 - First major support zone Target 2: $1.77 - Critical support (Glassnode accumulation zone) Target 3: $1.50-$1.66 - Deep support if whale selling persists DANGER ZONE: Below $1.77 = thin liquidity to $0.79 Bearish Risks to Monitor: Continued whale offloading on exchanges ETF narrative failing to drive price Broader crypto market weakness Fed maintaining hawkish stance Break of $1.77 critical support Trade Framework Bullish Trade Setup Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes above $1.95 with volume RSI breaks above 55 Ascending channel breakout confirmed Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.96-$2.00 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $1.85 below recent support Target 1: $2.15 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.5) Target 2: $2.50 (Risk-Reward ~1:3.5) Target 3: $3.00 (Extended) Bearish Trade Setup Entry Conditions: Rejection candle at $1.95 with upper wick Break below $1.87 support Volume confirmation on breakdown Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.86-$1.87 on support break Stop Loss: $1.96 above resistance Target 1: $1.77 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $1.60 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.7) Target 3: $1.50 (Extended) Range Trade Setup (If Consolidation Continues) Parameters: Buy Zone: $1.82-$1.87 Sell Zone: $1.93-$1.95 Stop Loss: $1.75 (below range) This setup works while price remains in the ascending channel Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 2-3% max risk per trade CRITICAL: Respect the $1.77 level - thin liquidity below Watch whale exchange inflows via CryptoQuant Monitor ETF flow data daily Reduce exposure during holiday low-liquidity period Use hard stops - whale selling can accelerate moves Scale out at targets rather than all-or-nothing exits Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $1.77 on daily timeframe Whale exchange inflows spike significantly ETF outflows begin (first negative day) Bitcoin breaks below $88,000 Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $2.00 with volume Whale exchange inflows dry up ETF inflows accelerate significantly XRP flips BNB for #3 market cap Conclusion BITSTAMP:XRPUSD presents a genuinely mixed picture. The ETF success story ($1.2B in assets, zero outflow days) should be bullish, but whale behavior tells a different story. On-chain data shows large holders systematically offloading at the $1.95 resistance level, providing sell-side liquidity for retail ETF buyers. The Key Question: Will ETF demand eventually overwhelm whale supply, or will whales continue to cap rallies? Critical Levels: $1.95 - THE level to watch. Break above = bullish, rejection = bearish $1.77 - Must hold. Thin liquidity below to $0.79 $2.50 - Bullish target if breakout occurs $1.50-$1.60 - Bearish target if whale selling continues My Stance: NEUTRAL I'm not calling a direction here. The data genuinely supports both scenarios. Let price action at $1.95 determine the next move. Trade the reaction, not the prediction. Watch For: Whale exchange inflow data (CryptoQuant) ETF flow momentum XRPL Lending Protocol news (January 2026) Bitcoin correlation and direction This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by officialjackofalltrades
BTCUSDTBTCUSD: Key Range Analysis: Bitcoin is currently trading within a defined corrective phase, moving between clear support and resistance levels. As long as the price stays inside this grey zone, we are waiting for a confirmed directional move. 🟢 Bullish Scenario * The Breakout: Price must break and hold above the upper boundary of the current range. * The Target: A successful hold above resistance puts the next upside targets marked on the chart into play. * The Momentum: Look for buyers to drive price toward the recent local highs once the zone is cleared. 🔴Bearish Scenario * The Rejection: Price fails to break the high and instead drops below the lower boundary. * The Target: A break of the lower support suggests a bearish continuation is likely. * The Support: Sellers will likely aim for the next major downside levels identified on the chart. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LEO_TRADES98
ETHUSD - Leverage Ratio Hits ALL-TIME HIGH BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is trading at approximately 2976 USD after a sharp 28 percent correction from the December 14-15 highs near 3980 USD to the December 18-19 lows around 2850 USD. While the hawkish Federal Reserve meeting triggered this selloff, on-chain data is flashing unprecedented bullish signals. Binance's Estimated Leverage Ratio just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of 0.611, and the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio spiked to 1.13 - levels not seen since September 2023. Traders are positioning aggressively for upside. The question now: is the capitulation complete, or does high leverage create liquidation risk? Current Market Context - December 21, 2025 Ethereum experienced one of its sharpest weekly declines in recent months, dropping from nearly 4000 USD to below 2900 USD in just four days. The catalyst was the Federal Reserve December 18 meeting where the central bank delivered a more hawkish stance than markets anticipated, projecting only two rate cuts for 2026. The selloff was exacerbated by: Broad risk-off sentiment across all crypto assets Bitcoin dropping from 108000 USD to below 92000 USD Over 1 billion USD in crypto liquidations within 24 hours Ethereum ETF outflows as institutional investors reduced exposure Year-end profit taking and portfolio rebalancing However, the bounce from 2850 USD and current stabilization around 2976 USD suggests the initial panic selling may be exhausted. More importantly, on-chain metrics are telling a different story than price action. CRITICAL ON-CHAIN DATA - Record Bullish Positioning Estimated Leverage Ratio - ALL-TIME HIGH Data from CryptoQuant shows Ethereum's Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has climbed to 0.611 - the highest level EVER recorded for this metric. This ratio compares open interest to exchange reserves, revealing how much borrowed capital traders are deploying relative to available liquidity. What this means: Traders are committing record leveraged positions anticipating favorable price movement Current reading surpasses ALL previous cycle peaks This environment amplifies price moves - modest spot changes can trigger large liquidations Risk appetite among traders is at unprecedented levels Taker Buy/Sell Ratio - Highest Since September 2023 The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio recently spiked to 1.13 on Binance - a level last observed in September 2023. A reading above 1 indicates market participants are executing more buy orders than sell orders. Strong taker demand combined with rising leverage reveals optimism dominating short-term sentiment Historical data shows spikes in this ratio often coincide with increased volatility Traders are positioning ahead of a potential attempt to reclaim 3000 USD This buying pressure is notable given ETH is trading around 2900-3000 USD WARNING: While these metrics are bullish, record leverage is a double-edged sword. If price moves against leveraged positions, liquidation cascades can accelerate downside moves dramatically. Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 45 Minute Timeframe Analyzing the chart from December 14-21, 2025: Phase 1 - Distribution and Initial Decline (Dec 14-16): Price peaked near 3980 USD on December 14 Initial breakdown below 3900 USD signaled distribution Steady decline through 3800, 3700, 3600 levels Lower highs forming on each bounce attempt Volume increasing on down moves - classic distribution signature Phase 2 - Capitulation Event (Dec 17-19): Sharp acceleration of selling on December 17-18 Price crashed through multiple support levels without pause Breakdown from 3400 to 2850 USD in approximately 36 hours This represented a 16 percent drop in less than two days Capitulation volume spike visible on the December 18-19 lows Long wicks on candles near 2850 USD showing buyer absorption Phase 3 - Stabilization and Accumulation (Dec 19-21): Strong bounce from 2850 USD low Price recovered to 2976 USD representing 4.4 percent recovery from lows Higher lows forming: 2850 to 2880 to 2920 to current levels Consolidation range establishing between 2950-3000 USD Decreasing volatility suggesting selling pressure exhaustion On-chain data confirms accumulation phase is active Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: 3000-3020 USD - Immediate psychological resistance and round number 3080-3100 USD - Previous support turned resistance from December 17 3200-3250 USD - Major horizontal resistance zone 3400-3450 USD - Secondary resistance from pre-crash consolidation 3600-3650 USD - Major resistance zone 3900-4000 USD - December highs and psychological barrier Support Levels: 2950-2960 USD - Immediate support from current consolidation 2900-2920 USD - Recent higher low support 2850-2870 USD - Capitulation low and critical support 2700-2800 USD - MAJOR DEMAND ZONE (Analyst Confluence) 2600-2650 USD - Deep support from November 2025 levels The 2700-2800 Demand Zone - Analyst Confluence Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has outlined a clear technical roadmap identifying the 2700-2800 USD zone as a major demand area . According to his analysis, ETH recently tapped into this important demand zone and has started to rebound. This move occurred when Ethereum broke below 3000 USD to reach a low of 2781 USD on December 18. Multiple analysts are highlighting this zone as critical support with strong buyer interest. The fact that price bounced sharply from this area and on-chain metrics show record bullish positioning suggests smart money is accumulating here. Chart Pattern Analysis The current structure shows characteristics of a potential falling wedge pattern: Lower highs connecting from 3980 to 3400 to 3100 area Lower lows from 3600 to 3000 to 2850 However, the most recent price action shows higher lows forming off 2850 This divergence between lower highs and higher lows creates compression Breakout direction will determine next major move Falling wedges typically resolve to the upside Fibonacci Retracement Analysis Measuring from the November 2025 low (approximately 2400 USD) to the December 2025 high (3980 USD): 0.236 retracement: 3607 USD - Already broken 0.382 retracement: 3376 USD - Already broken 0.5 retracement: 3190 USD - Already broken 0.618 retracement: 3004 USD - Currently testing this level 0.786 retracement: 2739 USD - Held as support (low was 2850) The bounce from near the 0.786 Fibonacci level is significant. This deep retracement level often marks the end of corrections in strong trends. The current test of the 0.618 level (3004 USD) will be crucial - a reclaim would be bullish, rejection would suggest more downside. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve Impact The December 18, 2025 FOMC meeting was the primary catalyst for the selloff: Fed held rates steady but projected only two rate cuts for 2026 Markets had priced in three to four cuts, creating hawkish surprise Fed Chair emphasized data dependency and willingness to maintain restrictive policy Higher-for-longer rates increase opportunity cost of holding crypto assets Risk assets across the board sold off following the announcement Altcoin Season Approaching - January 2026 A growing number of market analysts believe the long-awaited altcoin season may finally arrive in January 2026, with new data suggesting a shift in liquidity conditions. Ethereum's market behavior has attracted analysts who are highlighting a shift in leadership, typically seen only after a strong Bitcoin rally. This is significant because: Bitcoin has already made its major move from 60K to 108K Capital rotation into altcoins typically follows BTC dominance peaks ETH historically leads altcoin rallies January sees fresh institutional allocations entering the market Ethereum-Specific Fundamentals Despite the price decline, Ethereum fundamentals remain constructive: Ethereum staking continues to grow with over 34 million ETH staked Layer 2 adoption accelerating with Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism seeing record activity Ethereum ETF infrastructure now established providing institutional access Pectra upgrade scheduled for Q1 2026 bringing account abstraction improvements DeFi Total Value Locked on Ethereum remains above 60 billion USD Security Concerns - Risk Factor The crypto space continues to face security challenges: December 20: A trader lost nearly 50 million USD in USDT to an address poisoning attack 2025 has seen over 3.4 billion USD in crypto thefts - a record year The February Bybit hack (1.4 billion USD) accounted for 44 percent of annual losses These incidents create headline risk and can spook retail investors However, institutional infrastructure and security practices continue improving ETF Flow Analysis Ethereum ETF flows have been mixed: December saw net outflows as institutions reduced risk exposure ahead of year-end The post-Fed selloff accelerated ETF redemptions However, long-term institutional interest remains intact January typically sees renewed institutional buying as new year allocations begin ETF structure provides easier access for institutions to re-enter on dips Ethereum vs Bitcoin Analysis The ETH/BTC ratio provides important context: ETH has underperformed BTC during this correction ETH/BTC ratio declined from 0.037 to 0.032 area This underperformance is typical during risk-off periods However, ETH tends to outperform during recovery phases Vitalik Buterin himself said years ago he would respect a technically competent rival - but none has emerged A stabilization in ETH/BTC would be early signal of ETH strength returning Directional Bias Assessment Arguments for Bullish Reversal: LEVERAGE RATIO AT ALL-TIME HIGH (0.611) - Record bullish positioning TAKER BUY/SELL RATIO AT 1.13 - Highest since September 2023 Capitulation volume and price action suggest panic selling exhausted Bounce from 0.786 Fibonacci level is technically significant 2700-2800 demand zone confirmed by multiple analysts Higher lows forming off the 2850 USD bottom Exchange outflows during dip suggest accumulation occurring Altcoin season expected January 2026 per multiple analysts Strong fundamental backdrop with staking growth and L2 adoption Pectra upgrade catalyst approaching in Q1 2026 Arguments for Bearish Continuation: Price remains below all major moving averages No confirmed trend reversal pattern yet Fed hawkishness could continue pressuring risk assets RECORD LEVERAGE = LIQUIDATION RISK if price drops ETH underperforming BTC suggests relative weakness Holiday liquidity conditions could exacerbate any selling 3000 USD psychological resistance may cap rallies Security concerns (50M hack, 3.4B stolen in 2025) create headline risk ETF outflows may continue into year-end My Assessment - Bullish with Leverage Caution: The weight of evidence leans bullish. Record on-chain metrics showing unprecedented trader positioning for upside, combined with technical support holding and analyst confluence on the 2700-2800 demand zone, suggests the capitulation low should hold. HOWEVER - the record leverage is a double-edged sword. If 2850 breaks, liquidation cascades could accelerate the move down significantly. Bullish Confirmation: A daily close above 3050 USD with volume would confirm the bottom and open path to 3200-3400 USD. Bearish Confirmation: A break below 2850 USD would trigger leveraged liquidations and open path to 2600-2750 USD. Short-term (next 1-2 weeks): Bullish bias. On-chain data strongly supports upside. Expect attempt to reclaim 3000 USD and test 3200 USD. Long-term (1-3 months): Bullish. Altcoin season catalyst in January, Pectra upgrade in Q1, and structural drivers intact. Targets of 3400-3600 USD valid for Q1 2026. Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively above 3020 USD Volume on breakout candle exceeds recent average RSI breaks above 55 confirming momentum shift Trade Parameters: Entry: 3025-3050 USD on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 2920 USD below recent higher low Target 1: 3150-3200 USD previous support zone Target 2: 3350-3400 USD major resistance Target 3: 3550-3600 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2.5 to first target Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Demand Zone Entry Conditions: Price retests 2700-2800 USD demand zone Bullish rejection candle with long lower wick RSI showing oversold bounce Volume spike on the bounce candle Trade Parameters: Entry: 2750-2800 USD on demand zone retest Stop Loss: 2650 USD below demand zone Target 1: 3000-3020 USD psychological resistance Target 2: 3150-3200 USD major resistance Target 3: 3350-3400 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:3 to first target Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes below 2850 USD Volume confirmation on breakdown Leverage liquidations begin cascading Trade Parameters: Entry: 2840-2850 USD on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: 2920 USD above recent consolidation Target 1: 2750-2780 USD secondary support Target 2: 2650-2700 USD major support Target 3: 2500-2550 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2 to first target Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing should not exceed 2-3 percent risk per trade CRITICAL: Record leverage means volatility will be amplified Reduce size during holiday period due to lower liquidity Use hard stop losses - liquidation cascades can move price fast Scale into positions using multiple entries rather than single entry Take partial profits at each target level (33 percent at each) Move stop to breakeven after first target achieved Monitor BTC price action as correlation remains high Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 2700 USD on 4-hour or daily timeframe Lower low forms below the December 18-19 capitulation low ETH/BTC ratio breaks to new lows below 0.030 BTC breaks below 88000 USD triggering broader selloff Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 3200 USD with volume Higher high forms above 3100 USD RSI breaks above 60 with momentum ETH/BTC ratio recovers above 0.036 Conclusion BITSTAMP:ETHUSD has experienced a sharp 28 percent correction from the December highs near 3980 USD to the capitulation low around 2850 USD. While the Fed meeting triggered the selloff, on-chain data tells a powerfully bullish story. The Numbers That Matter: Leverage Ratio: 0.611 - ALL-TIME HIGH Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: 1.13 - Highest since September 2023 Demand Zone: 2700-2800 USD - Multiple analyst confluence Fibonacci Support: 0.786 level held (2739 USD) Key Levels to Watch: 3000-3020 USD - Breakout confirmation level 2850 USD - Critical support / capitulation low 2700-2800 USD - Major demand zone 3200 USD - Major resistance for trend confirmation Trading Approach: The on-chain data strongly favors bulls, but record leverage means you must respect risk management. Wait for either: Bullish breakout above 3020 USD with volume to confirm bottom Retest of 2700-2800 USD demand zone for lower-risk long entry Breakdown below 2850 USD to flip bearish (watch for liquidation cascade) Altcoin season approaching in January 2026 provides a macro tailwind. The setup favors patient bulls who manage risk appropriately. Drop your comments below on the next move for ETH!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by officialjackofalltrades
2
BNB Update: 1W Update after a bit, checking in - Looks fine BNB Update: Price is continuing to grind lower exactly as expected, slowly rotating down toward the higher timeframe support zone I marked a few weeks back. This pullback so far looks controlled and corrective rather than impulsive, with no major structural damage on the weekly. From a market structure standpoint, this is more consistent with a consolidation and reset after the prior expansion than the start of a broader trend reversal. The ~670 area remains the key level I’m watching. That zone has acted as a major pivot in the past, and a clean test there would make sense from both a technical and market psychology perspective. These slow, drawn-out pullbacks often do more to reset sentiment and positioning than sharp selloffs, which fits what we’re seeing now. Zooming out, BNB still sits in a strong long-term structure relative to many other large-cap alts. The ecosystem backing matters here. BNB remains closely tied to Binance itself, and with CZ back in the picture and Binance continuing to dominate exchange volume and infrastructure, the long-term fundamental backdrop remains intact. As long as price holds higher timeframe support and avoids an impulsive breakdown, I’m treating this move as a corrective phase within a larger bullish cycle. I’ll stay patient into support, but structurally I remain confident BNB has the potential to resume higher and perform well into next year once this consolidation fully plays out.
BINANCE:BNBUSD
by OnchainNewsBlog
BTC OpEx Weekly OutlookI expect a volatile week for Bitcoin due to the massive OpEx on 12/26. The notional value expiring is roughly 8x the previous week. Max pain is 96k on Deribit. Other exchanges are slightly higher. Dealer gamma exposure is negative on Monday which should add volatility, so I expect another trip to recent support around 85k. As the week continues, gamma sharply turns positive which should have a dampening effect on price swings. As OpEx approaches, I expect price to move up at an increasing rate due to dealers unwinding hedges into Friday. Max pain is around 96k, so it should be a magnet for price throughout the week. Hedges unwinding will apply pressure to short liquidations which could cascade with a peak in the 94-96k range. After options expiration, price should fall sharply IF whales write more covered calls forcing MMs to hedge. I am short into Monday. Plan to long if it dips, then open a short in the 94-96k range or whatever the top is near EOD Friday with a final target of 72k in the coming weeks/months.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by proteus_1
12
SOLUSD - December Distribution Structure Executive Summary COINBASE:SOLUSD has declined approximately 52 percent from its November 2024 all-time high of 264 USD to current levels around 126 USD. This analysis examines the technical structure, on-chain metrics, and fundamental catalysts to determine high-probability trade zones. The evidence suggests further downside toward the 100-115 USD accumulation zone before a sustainable recovery can begin. Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview Solana is currently trading within a descending channel that formed after the November 2024 peak. The structure shows: Lower highs at 264, 220, 180, and 145 USD forming clear descending resistance Lower lows indicating sustained selling pressure Current price testing the 125-130 USD zone which previously acted as resistance in October 2024 Volume declining on bounces and increasing on selloffs - classic distribution signature Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Zones: 140-145 USD - Recent swing high rejection zone 160-165 USD - Previous support turned resistance 180-185 USD - Major structural resistance Support Zones: 115-120 USD - Minor support, likely to break 100-105 USD - Major support, November 2024 breakout origin 85-90 USD - Secondary support if macro deteriorates Moving Average Analysis Price is trading below the 20, 50, and 200 period moving averages on the daily timeframe The 20 MA has crossed below the 50 MA, confirming short-term bearish momentum The 200 MA is flattening and beginning to slope downward Moving averages are fanning out in bearish alignment RSI and Momentum Daily RSI is currently in the 35-40 range, approaching oversold but not yet at extreme levels RSI has been making lower highs alongside price, confirming the downtrend No bullish divergence present yet - divergence at the 100-115 zone would be a strong buy signal Weekly RSI has room to decline further before reaching oversold extremes seen at previous bottoms Volume Profile High volume node exists at the 100-115 USD zone from the November 2024 accumulation period Current price zone shows relatively low volume, suggesting lack of strong buyer interest Volume has been declining during recent bounce attempts - weak demand A volume spike at the 100-115 zone would confirm institutional accumulation Fibonacci Retracement Measuring from the September 2024 low of 120 USD to the November 2024 high of 264 USD: 0.382 retracement: 209 USD - Already broken 0.5 retracement: 192 USD - Already broken 0.618 retracement: 175 USD - Already broken 0.786 retracement: 151 USD - Already broken Full retracement: 120 USD - Currently testing The breakdown through the 0.786 level suggests the move is corrective in nature and a full retracement to the 100-120 USD origin zone is probable. On-Chain and Fundamental Analysis Network Activity Metrics Solana network statistics show mixed signals: Daily active addresses have declined from peak levels during the meme coin mania Transaction counts remain elevated compared to other Layer 1 networks Total Value Locked in Solana DeFi protocols has decreased from highs NFT trading volume on Solana marketplaces has cooled significantly Supply Distribution Large holder concentration remains high with significant whale wallet activity Exchange inflows have increased in recent weeks, indicating selling pressure Staking participation remains strong, reducing liquid supply FTX bankruptcy estate continues systematic liquidation of SOL holdings Macro Factors Affecting Solana Bearish Catalysts: Federal Reserve December 2025 meeting maintained hawkish stance with fewer rate cuts projected for 2026 Risk-off sentiment affecting high-beta assets disproportionately BITSTAMP:BTCUSD dominance rising, indicating capital rotation from altcoins to Bitcoin Regulatory uncertainty regarding Solana ETF approval timeline FTX estate selling pressure creating persistent supply overhang Meme coin speculation that drove the 2024 rally has cooled substantially Bullish Catalysts: Solana network upgrades improving transaction throughput and reliability Growing institutional interest in Solana ecosystem projects Potential Solana ETF approval could drive significant inflows Strong developer activity and ecosystem growth metrics Firedancer client development progressing, promising improved network performance Solana remains the preferred chain for new DeFi and consumer applications Competitive Positioning Solana maintains advantages over competing Layer 1 networks: Transaction costs remain significantly lower than BITSTAMP:ETHUSD mainnet Transaction speed and finality superior to most competitors Developer ecosystem continues expanding despite price decline Institutional partnerships and integrations increasing However, challenges persist: Network outages and congestion issues have damaged reputation Centralization concerns regarding validator distribution Competition from Ethereum Layer 2 solutions intensifying Regulatory classification uncertainty in United States Whale and Institutional Activity Recent on-chain data indicates: Large wallets have been net sellers over the past 30 days Exchange deposits from whale addresses have increased Institutional funds have reduced Solana allocation according to fund flow data However, accumulation signals are appearing at lower price levels The pattern suggests distribution at current levels with potential accumulation beginning at the 100-115 USD zone. Trade Framework Primary Scenario - Bearish Continuation (Higher Probability) The weight of evidence supports further downside before a sustainable bottom forms: Technical structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows Price below all major moving averages Macro environment unfavorable for risk assets On-chain metrics showing distribution No bullish divergence on momentum indicators yet Short Setup: Entry Zone: 130-140 USD on relief bounces Stop Loss: Above 148 USD Target 1: 115-118 USD Target 2: 105-108 USD Target 3: 95-100 USD Secondary Scenario - Accumulation at Support The 100-115 USD zone represents a high-conviction long opportunity if confirmation signals appear: This zone was the origin of the November 2024 rally High volume node from previous accumulation period Full Fibonacci retracement level Psychological round number support at 100 USD Long Setup: Entry Zone: 100-115 USD Stop Loss: Below 92 USD Target 1: 130-135 USD Target 2: 150-160 USD Target 3: 180-200 USD Confirmation Signals Required for Long Entry: Bullish RSI divergence on daily timeframe Volume spike on bullish candle at support Price reclaiming the 20 period moving average Higher low formation on 4-hour timeframe Decrease in exchange inflows from whale wallets Risk Management Position sizing should not exceed 2-3 percent of portfolio for short setups Long setups at the 100-115 zone warrant 3-5 percent allocation due to higher conviction Scale into positions using 3 tranches rather than single entry Move stop loss to breakeven after first target achieved Avoid trading the 120-130 USD range without clear directional confirmation Monitor BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price action as correlation remains high Invalidation Levels Bearish thesis invalidated if: Daily close above 150 USD with increasing volume Price reclaims 50 and 200 moving averages RSI breaks above 60 with momentum Bullish thesis invalidated if: Daily close below 92 USD Volume spike on breakdown below 100 USD Bitcoin breaks below 75000 USD triggering broader market selloff Timeline Expectations Short-term (1-4 weeks): Expect continued weakness toward 100-115 USD support zone Medium-term (1-3 months): Potential basing pattern formation if support holds Long-term (3-6 months): Recovery rally possible if macro conditions improve and Solana-specific catalysts materialize Conclusion COINBASE:SOLUSD is in a clear distribution phase following the November 2024 peak. The technical structure, on-chain metrics, and macro environment all point to further downside before a sustainable bottom forms. The 100-115 USD zone represents the highest probability accumulation area based on: Historical significance as the November 2024 breakout origin Fibonacci full retracement level High volume node from previous accumulation Psychological support at 100 USD round number The recommended approach is patience. Avoid buying at current levels where distribution is occurring. Wait for price to reach the 100-115 USD zone and confirm with bullish divergence and volume signals before establishing long positions. For traders seeking short exposure, relief bounces to the 130-140 USD zone offer favorable risk-reward entries with defined stops above 148 USD. This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
CRYPTO:SOLUSDShort
by officialjackofalltrades
3
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on Bitcoin? Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase after a strong bearish move and is currently ranging between a clearly defined support and resistance zone. As long as price remains inside this range, no major directional move is expected. At the moment, price is expected to move toward the upper boundary of the range. Once this area is reached, price behavior should be closely monitored for confirmation. Bullish case: If price breaks and holds above the range high, the next upside targets marked on the chart will come into play. Bearish case: If price gets rejected from the range high and the lower boundary of the range is broken, bearish continuation is likely, with the next downside target around 73,000. ⚠️ Until a clear breakout occurs, the market remains in a consolidation phase Please Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
by HAMED_AZ
28
ZEC Update: Back into this uptrend zone ZEC Update: My prior downside thesis is now invalidated. ZEC has pushed back into the former rising channel and is showing acceptance inside the uptrend zone, which forces a reassessment of structure. The breakdown attempt failed, and instead of follow-through to the downside, price reclaimed key levels and held, shifting the short-term bias back to the upside. Structurally, reclaiming the channel is important. Failed breakdowns often act as fuel in the opposite direction, especially when price can hold above the lower channel boundary and build higher lows. As long as ZEC remains inside this structure, the move off the ~300 region looks less like a dead cat bounce and more like a continuation attempt. That said, this is still a reclaim phase, not confirmation of a full trend extension yet. The mid-to-upper channel and prior resistance around the mid-400s will be key areas to watch for acceptance versus rejection. Strong continuation would require follow-through and sustained closes inside the channel, while a loss of the lower boundary would quickly put the downside back in play. For now, I’m respecting the invalidation and adjusting accordingly. Bias shifts bullish while price holds this uptrend structure, with risk clearly defined against the lower channel support. This is a good reminder to stay flexible and let price lead, not prior expectations.
COINBASE:ZECUSD
by OnchainNewsBlog