Projection — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Trading Timeframes: Measured Moves and Context In the previous post, we introduced the concept of measured moves, a structured framework for estimating future price behavior. This method is based on the observation that each swing move tends to be similar in size to the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach offers a practical way to approximate the potential extension of a swing move. A common question that arises is: which timeframe should you use for measured moves, and how do you choose the correct swing move? These questions open up a completely different and important topic. Imagine analyzing a chart across three timeframes: daily, weekly, and monthly. You’ve projected a viable measured move on each chart. Now, ask yourself: which projection is the correct one? Where is the move most likely to play out? Daily Weekly Monthly The reality is that there is no singular “correct” answer. The appropriate measurement depends entirely on your purpose as a trader, the timeframe you operate in, and trading style. The Fractal Nature of Price Action Price action is fractal by nature. Regardless of whether you’re observing a 30-minute chart, a daily chart, or a weekly chart, the price displayed is the same in real time. However, the purpose of charts is to provide context. Each timeframe offers a unique perspective on how price has developed. For example, a 5-minute chart may reveal details about intraday movements while a daily chart condenses those details into broader a broader structure and context. These perspectives may align or contradict one another, they can confirm or challenge your biases. The key takeaway is that charts and timeframes are tools to contextualize price, not definitive answers. Defining Your Trading Timeframe To navigate the apparent contradictions between timeframes, start by defining your trading timeframe. This is where you analyze price structure, execute trades and define holding periods. This will answer the opening question: measured moves and other tools should in preference align with your trading timeframe. In case one wants to consider context, for various reasons, then multiple timeframes can be utilized. These act as a complement, not replacement. Here’s how different timeframes can be used for context. Higher timeframe: Moving one timeframe up will compress the price data, providing a broader context, but at the expense of detail. Lower Timeframe: Moving one timeframe down will reveal intricate details, but can introduce excessive noise. The balance between these components should match your trading style. Without a clear and defined approach, there is a risk of confusion and contradictory biases. The Concept of "Moving in Twos" Another, more anecdotal observation in price movement is the idea of “moving in twos.” This concept suggests that price often moves in sequences of two swings: an impulse move, followed with a pullback, which then repeats. There tends to be some price disruption after this has played out, but does not always imply that trend movement must stop after two moves. However, measured moves tend to align more reliably with these sequences. While not a scientifically validated principle, this concept has been discussed by traders such as Al Brooks, Mack and more. It provides a practical heuristic for applying measured moves more consistently. Practical Application To apply these ideas, consider the following: Define your trading timeframe. Use it as the primary basis for your measured move projections. If needed, incorporate one higher or lower timeframe to balance context and detail. However, these additional perspectives should not overrule your primary focus. Think in terms of “moving in twos.” Use this concept to locate sequences. This post was about the relationship between timeframes and the fractal nature of price action. The focus is on our role as traders and how we decide to operate, rather than absolute answers. This might be clear to most, but if not, take some time to think about and define your trading style.

Measured Moves: A Guide to Finding Targets Measured Moves: A Guide to Finding Targets Visualizing the boundaries of price movement helps anticipate potential swing points. The concept of measured moves offers a structured framework to estimate future price behavior, based on the observation that each swing move often mirrors the size of the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach provides a practical method to approximate the extension of a swing move. Background Determining profit targets across various methods and timeframes can be challenging. To address this, I reviewed the tactics of experienced traders and market research, noting key similarities and differences. Some traders relied more on discretion, while others used technical targets or predetermined risk-to-reward ratios. Levels of support and resistance (S/R) and the Fibonacci tool frequently appeared, though their application varied by trader. Based on current evidence, levels appear most relevant when tied to the highest and lowest swing points within the current price structure, for example in a range-bound market. In contrast, sporadic or subtle levels from historical movements seem no more significant than random points. The Fibonacci tool can provide value since measurements are based on actual price range; however, the related values have limited evidence to support them. To explore these ideas, I conducted measurements on over a thousand continuation setups to identify inherent or consistent patterns in swing moves. It’s important to emphasize that tools and indicators should never be used blindly. Trading requires self-leadership and critical thinking. The application of ideas without understanding their context or validity undermines the decision-making process and leads to inconsistent results. This concept formed the foundation for my analysis, ensuring that methods were tested rather than taken at face value. Definitions Trending price movement advances in steps, either upward or downward. This includes a stronger move followed by a weaker corrective move, also known as a retracement. When the corrective move is done and prices seem to resume the prevailing trend, we can use the prior move to estimate targets; this is known as a projection. For example, if a stock moves up by 10%, pauses, and subsequently makes another move, we can utilize that value to estimate the potential outcome. Well thats the idea.. Data Through manual measurements across various timeframes, price structures, and stock categories, I have gathered data on retracements and projections. However, this information should not be considered precise due to market randomness and inherent volatility. In fact, deviations—such as a notable failure to reach a target or overextensions—can indicate a potential structural change. As this study was conducted with a manual approach, there is a high risk of selection bias, which raises concerns about the methodology's reliability. However, it allows for a more discretionary perspective, enabling observations and discretion that might be overlooked in a purely automated analysis. To simplify the findings, the presented values below represent a combination of all the data. Retracement Tool In the context of price movements within a trend, specifically continuation setups, retracements typically fall between 20% and 50% of the prior move. While retracements beyond 50% are less common, this does not necessarily invalidate the setup. From my observations, two distinct patterns emerge. First, a shallow retracement where the stock consolidates within a narrow range, typically pulling back no more than 10% to 20% before continuing its trend. Second, a deeper retracement, often around 50%, followed by a nested move higher before a continuation. For those referencing commonly mentioned values (though not validated), levels such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 44.7%, and 50% align with this range. Additionally, 18% frequently appears as a notable breakout point. However, I strongly advise against relying on precise numbers with conviction due to the natural volatility and randomness inherent in the market. Instead, a more reliable approach is to maintain a broad perspective—for example, recognizing that retracements in the 20% to 50% range are common before a continuation. This approach allows flexibility and helps account for the variability in price action. Projection Tool When there is a swing move either upward or downward, we can utilize the preceding one of the same type for estimation. This approach can be used exclusively since it is applicable for retracements, projections, and range-bound markets as long as there has been a similar price event in recent time. In terms of projection, the most common range is between 60% and 120% of the prior move, with 70% to 100% being more prevalent. It is uncommon for a stock to exceed 130% of the preceding move. Frequently mentioned values in this context include 61.8% and 78.6% as one area, although these values are frequently surpassed. The next two commonly mentioned values are 88.6% and 100%, which are the most frequent and can be used effectively on their own. These values represent a complete measured move, as they closely mimic the magnitude of the prior move with some buffer. The last value, 127%, is also notable, but exceeding this level is less common. Application The simplest application of this information is to input the range of 80% to 100% into the projection tool. Then, measure a similar prior move to estimate the subsequent one. This is known as the measured move. There are no strict rules to follow—it’s more of an art. The key is to measure the most similar move in recent times. If the levels appear unclear or overly complicated, they likely are. The process should remain simple and combined with a discretionary perspective. Interestingly, using parallel channels follows the same principle, as they measure the range per swing and project average volatility. This can provide an alternative yet similar way to estimate price movement based on historical swings. The advantage of this method is its universal and adaptable nature for setting estimates. However, it requires a prior swing move and is most effective in continuation setups. Challenges arise when applying it to the start of a new move, exhaustion points, or structural changes, as these can distort short-term price action. For instance, referencing a prior uptrend to project a downtrend is unlikely to be effective due to the opposing asymmetry in swing moves. In some cases, measured moves from earlier periods can be referenced if the current range is similar. Additionally, higher timeframes take precedence over lower ones when determining projections. This is nothing more than a tool and should be used with a discretionary perspective, as with all indicators and drawing tools. The true edge lies elsewhere. Example Use 1. Structure: Identify an established trend or range and measure a clear swing move. 2. Measured Move: Apply the measurement to the subsequent move by duplicating the line to the next point or using a trend-based Fibonacci extension tool set to 100% of the prior swing. The first two points define the swing move. The third point is placed at the deepest part of the subsequent pullback or at the start of the new move. 3. Interpretation: While this is a simple tool, its effective use and contextual application require experience and practice. Remember, this process relies on approximation and discretionary judgment.

Price-Action-Channel-Formation: Key Projection-Types!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this tutorial about Price-Action-Channel-Formation. In markets, there are often price-actions forming that move into channel-formations which can shape into different forms. In this tutorial, I am looking at important channel structure types and how the projections can be assigned to properly object a taget-zone in the various types. As it is most often the case such formations can show up with a great potential signal to enter when they rightly complete and the final confirmation shows up, therefore it is important to keep patient on these confirmations and do not hesitate to enter into the market when no solid setup and opportunity is given. Range-Breakout-Projection: - Such ranges form quite often in the market and they can develop on smaller timeframes such as the 1-hour timeframe or higher timeframes such as the daily timeframe always with the proper time perspective given with the certain range. The pattern starts with a downtrend or in the reverse with an uptrend marking a new low or high which is the support/resistance in the range then the price bounces back to form the counterpart high or low which then creates the counterpart support/resistance in the structure. After a period of consolidation, the price finally breaks out of the range above the support/resistance level and closes there. When the final breakout emerges there are two possible target-projections, firstly the range height from the support to the resistance that is projected from the breakout point and secondly the width from the initial range entry to the breakout which is projected from the low to the upside, both projection can have different targets that can be assigned as target one and target two. Tripple-Channel-Target-Projection: - This is a very interesting channel-formation that is forming in the markets. Firstly the uptrend channel develops as seen in my chart(this can also happen in the bearish direction), within this channel a new high marks in the structure before the price-action actually reverses and breaks out below the lower boundary of this main ascending channel. The first breakout below the lower boundary of the channel activates a target with the projection to the downside and after that it is not seldom seen that the price-action moves back into the lower boundary and tests again as seen in my chart, in this case two further channels can be drawn, the second channel in the structure which is projected from the high to the structure lows and highs to the downside and the third channel projected from the new downtrend low to the new downtrend high, when the price-action now moves into the lower boundary of the main channel again this is a tripple-resistance-pullback as seen in my chart and the price-action moves on to the targets by the breakout and when the price-action then moves below the second channel the next target is activated. Classical-Descending-Channel-Projection: - This is the most classical channel in the market, it can form as a descending channel marking a potential bullish reversal as well as an ascending channel marking a potential bearish reversal. In both types, the channel is formed by the trend lows and highs which are ranging in the channel and as the downtrend (or in the reverse the uptrend) moves on the market gets oversold and the possibility for a reversal gets higher as the market has not the ability to continue this way for every. Such a formation also often inhabits a elliot ABCDE-wave-count which can offer additional confirmation for a breakout. This final breakout emerges when the asset gets that much oversold that demand enters and a breakout above the upper boundary settles as it is shown in my chart. When this breakout shows up the channel heights from the up to the downside is projected to the final breakout to the upside and the price-action is ready to appoint these zones. Range-Triangle-Channel-Projection: - This is a pattern that combines two formations, firstly an ascending channel and secondly an ascending triangle which is forming within the channel. Firstly the ascending-channel establishes with higher highs and higher lows and within this channel, the price-action makes something interesting as it does not move on further in the structure and stops making new highs it pulls back and forms a horizontal line of highs in the structure which then develops into this ascending-triangle seen in my chart in orange. Such an ascending triangle has the ability to form a dedicated breakout to the upside when the price-action moved on to range in the triangle and possibly also completes the wave-count within. When the price-action finally breaks out above the upper boundary of the triangle this will activate the further developments and targets at the upside especially amazing is the double projection here which projects the triangle height to the upside and is also at the same time the target at the upper boundary of the ascending-channel which can approve the target not only in price but also in time. Bull-Flag-Channel-Breakout-Projection: - This type of formation projection can show up with a very good solid signal however there are some very important determinations that need to confirm rightly before assessing the formation in the right manner. When the bull flag does not complete properly and the price-action increases bearishly or also bullishly when it is a bear-flag such a flag-formation can also invalidate with the breakout into the reverse direction which can often lead to heavy volatilities into the other direction as traders get trapped. Nevertheless when the formation completes rightly which will happen with the final breakout above the upper or lower boundary the target projection is made from the previous low in the wave to the upside to the high which is then projected from the lowest price-action point in the flag to the upside, always possible with the counterpart formation into the other direction. Double-Channel-Triangle-Breakout-Projection: - Now comes a very amazing formation as there are some interesting points given in this formation that can lead to a very strong breakout signal and the activation of the targets ahead. This formation basically consists of an initial channel to the downside in which the price-action ranges and after that can fall below the lower boundary and continue bearishly to reach the target, this initial price-action in the descending channel does not necessarily need to show up. After that when the price-action reached the targets the price backs up and continues to the upside to finally move into the previous descending-channel again in which it continues to consolidate and now also forms a bunch of lower lows that mark an ascending-trend-line in this channel, both the first descending-channel and now the second ascending-channel form a symmetrical triangle formation which is more likely to break out into the direction it came from which in this case is the bullish direction, this can also be measured into the reverse direction. The breakout then strongly activates an upside target which is the price-projection of the triangle to the upside and also the upper-boundary of the channel-formation that can also show the target in time. In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about these important price-action-channel-formation types that can be spotted in today's market, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.

🔥TYPES OF FIBONACCI TOOLS🔥 There are several types of Fibonacci tools that are commonly used in technical analysis, including: 📊FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT Fibonacci retracement levels—stemming from the Fibonacci sequence—are horizontal lines that indicate where support and resistance are likely to occur.Each level is associated with a percentage. The percentage is how much of a prior move the price has retraced. The Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. While not officially a Fibonacci ratio, 50% is also used.The indicator is useful because it can be drawn between any two significant price points, such as a high and a low. The indicator will then create the levels between those two points. 📊FIBONACCI EXTENCION Fibonacci extensions don't have a formula. When the indicator is applied to a chart, the trader chooses three points. The first point chosen is the start of a move, the second point is the end of a move and the third point is the end of the retracement against that move. The extensions then help project where the price could go next. Once the three points are chosen, the lines are drawn at percentages of that move.Extensions are drawn on a chart, marking price levels of possible importance. These levels are based on Fibonacci ratios (as percentages) and the size of the price move the indicator is being applied to. 📊FIBONACCI PROJECTION Fibonacci projections are mainly used to get the possible target levels of an ongoing uptrend or downtrend. It is drawn by joining three points unlike Fibonacci Retracement which has just two points- by joining the lowest and the highest points of a pre-defined.In order to draw the Fibonacci projections for an asset in an uptrend, we need 3 points: 👉Swing Low - that is the point from which the actual trend started. 👉Swing High - the point at which price started to retrace. 👉Low of the ongoing price correction. Fibonacci projections provide potential good levels to book profits. The important Fibonacci projections levels to watch out for are 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 200%, and 261.8%. 📊FIBONACCI EXPANSION(SIMILAR TO PROJECTION) Essentially, Fibonacci expansions allow us to project how far a potential price move is likely to travel. This price move is typically considered an impulsive price move, in the context of Elliott wave. That is to say that it will typically follow a corrective phase and thus form a new trend leg in the direction of the larger trend.In that way it is very different compared to Fibonacci retracements. Unlike Fibonacci retracements which measure an internal retracement against a larger trend leg, a Fibonacci expansion measures an external price leg. CONCLUSION It's important to note that the use of Fibonacci tools in trading is just one aspect of technical analysis and should not be used in isolation. I myself use Fibonacci regularly but I also combine them with technical key levels and with the price action patterns on top of that. I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?

How to use different types of Fibonacci in TradingView Wave Relationships and their relation by Fibonacci Ratios are among the most helpful tools for target prediction. There are different types of Fibonacci and different tools with different names in different software packages. This may make users somehow confused . Here, we try to shed some light on various mostly used Fibonacci types and explain their usage for target prediction. Also we explain their related tool in TradingView and their way of implementations. As shown on the chart, there are four main types of Fibonacci : 1- Internal Retracement 2. External Retracement (Extension) 3. Expansion 4. Projection Before going through details, it is worth to mention that knowing wave relationships is a key to implement Fibonacci tools accurately. Different types of wave relationships is beyond the scope of this publication. Here, for simplification, we show most simple type of wave cycle which is ascending complete cycle with one 5 leg up impulse and one abc form of correction . Also, we try to explain more typical Fibonacci Ratios for target prediction and skip less often ones. 1. Internal Retracement: This is simply for calculation of the amount of correction in the main trend. It means we can predict where a counter trend correction may end. As shown on the chart, it can be used for target prediction of wave 2 and 4 in an up trend and also wave B in a down trend. It can also be used for calculation of end of wave C which is the end of correction of whole up going wave. Green arrows on the picture show the direction of using this tool which is "Fib Reracement" in TradinView. For example, we put first point at the start of wave 1 and second point at the end of this wave for obtaining possible targets for wave 2 and so on. Wave 2 can end at 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement levels of wave 1. Fibonacci levels at which wave 2 ends can send us a signal about the amount of next waves. This is again beyond the scope of this publication. Wave 4 can typically end at 0.382 or 0.5 Retracement of wave 3. Less and more amount of Retracements are also possible, but those make wave relations more complicated and does not match with our simple shown example. Wave B typically corrects 0.382 , 0.5 and 0.618 of wave A in a simple zigzag correction. More Retracements signals for more complicated corrections e.g a flat correction. Wave C Retracement levels are similar to wave 2 in shown wave cycle since it is end of a larger degree wave 2. 2. External Retracement: This Fibonacci which is also called " Extension" can be used for calculation of end of wave 3 or 5 in an up trend and end of wave C ( which is end of whole correction) in a down trend. We have same tool as internal retracement in TradingView however ,unlike internal Retracement, an extension should be drawn from a high to a low in an up trend and vice versa as shown by green arrows on the related figure. Wave 3 Fibonacci Ratios by extension depends on the amount of wave 2 correction. For example, 1.618 or 2.618 extension of wave 2 can be the target for wave 3. Robert. C. Miner has proposed a very useful table for targets using external retracement. Wave 5 typical targets are 1.272, 1.414 and 1.618 extensions of wave 4. This ratios are also the same for calculation of end of wave C. 3. Expansion: Based on my experience, Fibo expansion is most useful when we have over extended waves for example over extended wave 3. In this case , 1.618 or even 2.618 Fibo levels can be the typical targets. Related tool in TradingView is Trend-Based Fib Extension. Please note that this tool in TradingView is a three point Fibonacci while expansion is two point Fibonacci tool. Therefore, Implementing this tool for obtaining Expansion levels is a little tricky. For example, for calculation of wave 3 we should put first point at the start of wave 1 and double click on end of wave 1. There are also more details in implementing Fibo expansion for example we have different types of Fibo expansion. We can skip details here to keep this publication as simple as possible. 4. Projection: This is the only 3 points Fibonacci that we have. Some software packages call this Fibonacci as Expansion !!. Its related tool in TradingView is Trend-Based Fibo Extension. It is a very useful tool for calculation of end of wave 3, 5 and C. Again green arrows show how to use this tool . For example, For wave 3 target calculation we set first point at the start of wave 1, second point at end of wave 1 and third point at the end of wave 2 or start of wave 3. 1.618 and 2.618 Fibo levels are typical for end of an extended wave 3 when using Fibo projection. 100 % Projection of wave 1 from low of wave 4 is a typical one for end of wave 5 target. Also 0.382 or 0.618 projection of wave 1-3 from low of wave 4 is a helpful ratio for wave 5 target calculation. For a wave C, most common projection is 100 % of wave A from top of wave B. How to make a Potential Reversal Zone ( PRZ) : We can make our potential reversal zone stronger by combining all proposed tools . Take another look at the figures. What can we see? yes. We know four tools now for calculation of end of wave C. Suppose how strong a possible buy zone can be when 4 different tools suggest it as potential reversal target ! Hope this to be helpful. Please do not hesitate to ask questions if you feel need to ask. Good luck every one.

TD line and projection Here you can see how to use Tom Demark trendline (that connnects peaks / thorough of more or less equal height / value) and projections. Best of breakout occur with gaps. Prebreakout candle has to close close to the trendline and make a minor pullback before the break occurs. If breakout candle has long rejection shadow - it will not work. Projection are drawn from the lowest closing price to the TD line and then projected from breakout point. You can also see how to use missed pivots that mark new trends (buy upon pullback to the next pivot) - after Rob Booker.

The Ace Spectrum as a Template for Support Projection Demonstrating the big idea: That straight lines in log-space form exponential curves. This property of the log chart is useful for examining assets with exponential growth (like high-growth stocks, cryptos, etc). Because the log scale asymptotically approaches the absolute scale as y slice decreases, this indicator is really applicable to any time scale. This indicator samples a distribution of lines from the past and projects them into the future, these projected lines form indicators of prior support. The idea is longer support at those specific lines is indicative of support strength, which this indicator approximately captures. My initial goal was to capture this intuition about exponential growth in log spaces by applying a monte-carlo style sampling approach to visualize the latent support lines. After I had captured that in a slightly more complex version of this indicator, my goal was to distill the concept into the simplest possible implementation.

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