STRUCTURE - The key to success!STRUCTURING - The key to success! (Part 1)
That structuring and order is the key to success, most will have already heard and partially applied in their own lives.
- Chart analysis is no exception and after correct application the results are even monetarily noticeable.
- How this can be implemented specifically in "TradingView", I present to you in this article.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1st Part = THE PROBLEM
2nd Part = THE SOLUTION
3rd Part = CONCLUSION
PART 1 = THE PROBLEM
"EVERYONE WILL KNOW THE EXPERIENCE,
TO HAVE SET A TRADE, TO BE SURE OF VICTORY,
ONLY TO BE MERCILESSLY STOPPED OUT."
In hindsight, you analyze your failed trade and realize that in another "Time Frame" an important support/resistance level was below/above your "Stop Loss" and the "Trade Idea" was already - BEFORE - INVALIDATED.
-> So one could have saved the "LOSS".
Most of us will analyze several "Time Frames" to know - which levels are strong/weak and relevant.
-> Regardless of the preferred "Time Frame", one will include the next larger/smaller "Time Frames" in one's analysis.
-> The more "Time Frames" you analyze and include in your final decision, the more confusing it gets.
-> The chart looks like a battlefield and the probability to make a profitable decision diminishes - significantly.
The time spent to put together the individual pieces of the puzzle to the big whole is no longer presentable.
= Headaches and a bad decision are pre-programmed.
To avoid this problem and to make the "Multi-Time-Frame" analysis as effective as possible. I have tested the possibilities provided by "TradingView" and worked out solutions that work for me.
-> I will present these in the following posts to inspire you and possibly provide a solution for an already existing problem.
The benefits of a working structure are:
"LONG-TERM TIME SAVINGS" + "SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER DECISIONS".
2. PART = THE SOLUTION
2.1. INTEGRATION OF THE OBJECT TREE
The platform provides an "element" overview - of all objects drawn in.
-> this option is an excellent way to structure all the objects located in the chart.
- If you haven't used this option before, you will probably belong to the majority.
- Unfortunately, this tool has not been sufficiently promoted by "TradingView", which is why it is unknown to many.
You can find the "Object tree" on the right side, at the very bottom. (Image 1)
If you have never used / structured the object tree before, it will look similar to our "UN-ORDERLY" example. (Image 2)
In the third image, you can see how it can be once you take the time to add order. (Image 3)
To get an overview, you can sort the drawn objects into groups and label them, depending on your own preference / structure.
- This works with a simple right click on the object (e.g. Fib-Retracement).
- There is then the selection "CREATE A GROUP OF DRAWINGS".
Once several groups have been created, you may need a placeholder.
Any is not provided by the program, but can be easily created yourself.
= Simply draw a point with the BRUSH tool.
-> switch off all Time Frames at Visibility
-> create own folder for this point with e.g. "- - - - - - -".
3. PART = CONCLUSION
With a little effort, order and structure can be provided here in the "much" edited charts.
How you want to set up this structure is entirely up to you. In case you need a little inspiration, you can take the one I created.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
IDT - Supply&Demand
IDT - Fibonacci
IDT - Trendlines
IDT - Point of interest
IDT - Market Structure Break
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HTF - Supply&Demand
HTF - Fibonacci
HTF - Trendlines
HTF - Point of interest
HTF - Market Structure Break
HTF – Volume level
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LONG IDEA
SHORT IDEA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
IDT = Intraday
HTF = Higher Time Frame
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy about a review of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
Tool
Why Price Speculations Are MeaninglessIt's so easy to get caught up in what the next high or low of an asset will be. Most of the time, people's speculations are based on emotion with some basic trendlines and chart patterns indicating a direction in price action with some bold number listed at the top for a new weekly or monthly high.
This is negligent. If you want to post price predications, it would be beneficial to give price action a range. If you mention the top side while forgetting the bottom, then you're just picking and choosing what data to represent.
The picture shown here -> miro.medium.com represents a normal distribution pattern. These patterns exist for ALMOST everything in life. It exists for height, weight, and standardized testing. Most importantly, we've come to understand that it can be applied to financial markets as well. Most of any data set lies in and around the mean. As you stray further away from the middle, the existing probabilities for an event become increasingly less probable. Each standard deviation (noted with sigma) represents a "level" and is frequently given in percentiles.
Using the empirical rule we can shorthand these deviation ranges with a simple 68-95-99.7.
What does this tell us?
1. 68% of the data lies within 1 standard deviation from the mean.
2. 95% of the data lies within 2 standard deviations from the mean.
3. 99.7% of the data lies within 3 standard deviations of the mean.
What's very important here is that these levels can also be used to understand how probable an occurrence is given its distance from the mean.
Here is a scenario:
If the mean of the data is 75, and the standard deviation is 5, how common is the value 70?
Since the standard deviation is 5 and the mean is 75, 1 standard deviation below the mean would be 70. If that's the case, then this value would occur approximately 34% of the time.
You could repeat this process in any direction and extension from the mean. If you know the the standard deviation range and the mean, then this is a fairly simple process to calculate.
So let's talk about how this can be applied to financial markets using proper tools - shoutout to @Donnybrook56 and the Alpha trading team for putting this indicator together !
As you can see from the published chart, this indicator shows each of the standard deviation ranges for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD . The ones shown here are all +/- 3 standard deviation ranges from the current calculation of price on a weekly timeframe. This indicator is important for understanding the market dynamics for the timeframe that you choose to trade on. It is often used for entries and exits and gives you a general idea of how probable it would be to see a certain move on your given TF. If you look back through the history on the published chart, you can see how powerful this tool can be. Deviation bands are often tested, and either smash through or bounce right off of these ranges depending on other factors in the market. These bands are a representation of crude probability, nothing more. They don't show you where price is headed, only what is possible through sheer statistical probability.
Most importantly, these bands give ranges for price. If I were to mention that I believed BITSTAMP:BTCUSD to close at ~41k by the end of this weekly TF, then I would have to do its justice by saying that it has equal probability to close at ~31k. Don't listen to anyone who gives you clear cut price predictions. They don't exist.
LONG & SHORT POSITION TOOL📚An In-Depth Look at Using This ToolThis illustration explains the functionality of TradingView's Long/Short Position Tool and is intended to help new people looking for more information on this tool in a "novice friendly" format. TradingView’s position tool will aid you in pre-planning and pre-evaluating trades and as such should be an essential part of every trader's toolkit .
Note:
At its simplest, the position tool can quickly show you the R:R (Risk-To-Reward) of a single trade. By doing a little extra work, you’ll be able to then use this tool to properly plan for the risk of all trades you are taking compared to your total account size.
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Important terms:
Tick = A tick is a measure of the minimum upward or downward movement in price.
Trade outcome statistics = Used to track the outcome of a trade.
Example:
“Current XYZ position closed
+5.25% gain
10840 account balance after trade impact”
P&L = A representation of current Profit & Loss. Be careful where you position the tool, as the P&L is calculated based on the position of the tool.
Here are two uses for the Position Tool:
1. Only R:R = To quickly find only the R:R of a trade. This method does not bother changing account balance and such is only acceptable if you are tracking your current account balance and doing risk calculations off-platform in something such as a google spreadsheet.
2. Risk+R:R = To ensure your current trade idea meets both your R:R and max risk tolerance (risk amount; in our case, 1%). This is achieved by changing the “Account Size” option every time you are building a new position. This is the advised method to use, since like your trade journal, it’ll help keep you accurate and accountable.
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We will now explain the options contained within the tool’s input on-chart menu:
Account size = The current available balance within your account, the keyword here is available. If you are using the "Risk" option explained below then this needs to be updated upon starting to create a new trade setup.
Risk = Your max tolerable risk amount (either in absolute numbers or as a % of your account size). The default option is "absolute numbers," this uses the base currency of the on chart asset (If you were on ETHBTC, then the base currency would be BTC; for SPX500USD it is USD since this asset is displayed in its USD value). As you know, we suggest you stick to %.
Entry Price = The price you will be entering the position at.
PROFIT LEVEL:
Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the profit target.
Price = The take profit price.
STOP LEVEL:
Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the stop loss.
Price = The stop losses price.
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We will now explain all metrics being displayed on the tool while it is plotted on the chart:
Top info panel:
1. The difference in base currency (USD) from the entry price to the take profit price.
2. The difference in percentage change from the entry price to the take profit price.
3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the take profit price.
4. The hypothetical account balance after the take profit target is achieved.
Middle info panel:
1. Simulated P&L from the entry price to where the current live price is.
(Displayed in the base currency of the on chart asset, USD in this example)
2. The quantity of the asset that should be purchased at the entry price.
This is calculated as follows: Qty = Risk / (Entry Price – Stop Price)
3. The risk to reward ratio, this is how much you could gain compared to how much you could lose.
The calculation is as follows:
Risk/Reward Ratio = ((Take profit price - Entry price) / (Entry price - Stop loss price))
Bottom info panel:
1. The base currency (USD) difference from the entry price to the stop-loss price.
2. The difference in percentage change from the entry to the stop-loss price.
3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the stop-loss price.
4. The hypothetical account balance after the stop-loss is hit.
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Lastly, we will explain how Position Size and Account Balance are being calculated by TradingView:
Long Position Variant
Position Size:
Qty = RiskSize / (EntryPrice - StopPrice)
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level:
Amount = AccountSize + (ProfitLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty
Account Balance when position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level:
Amount = AccountSize – (EntryPrice – StopLevel) * Qty
Short Position Variant
Position Size:
Qty = RiskSize / (StopPrice - EntryPrice)
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level:
Amount = AccountSize + (EntryPrice - ProfitLevel) * Qty
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level:
Amount = AccountSize – (StopLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty
AccountSize:
Initial account size specified in the settings
RiskSize:
If the "Risk" option is set to "absolute numbers" = Risk
If the "Risk" option is set to "percentage of account size" = Risk / 100 * AccountSize
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Reference: www.tradingview.com
If we made any mistakes please let us know in the comments. There was a lot of formatting we needed to do to best display all of this information for you guys!
Enjoy. :)
FINDING THE BEST ROI BETWEEN SIMILAR ASSETS 📚 With Alpha's PoP💬Introduction :
Today we are comparing the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and the S&P by their annual performance to show how our open source indicator "Alpha Performance of Period" (PoP) can be used and why the results are useful. We will also look at other markets later in the writeup to see how they compare and to get a sense of which markets provide the best risk-to-reward and ROI.
The idea here is to compare highly correlated markets over time to see which of these markets preforms the best overall represented by a period chosen by the user. This will help tell us which of these indexes is the best/worst to trade/invest with on average.
For this article we will assume "best" equates to "best for long positions", but the indicator could be used for other purposes such as best shorting opportunities (largest drawdown amounts).
Comparing these indexes shows that the NASDAQ has historically outperformed, while the DOW underperformed, and the S&P has been somewhere in the middle since the tech bubble on a year-over-year basis.
You can also see this on the chart as represented by the indicator's metrics contained within its label, but we will summarize it below:
NOTE: The figures below are rounded up to the nearest .01%, see charts for exact %'s.
Equity Indices Total Annual performance results: (main chart)
(Jan. 2000 - present)
SPX = +111.79%
NDX = +156.10%
DJI = +117.65%
Now let's look at the quarterly and monthly performance:
Equity Indices Total Quarterly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
SPX = +104.57%
NDX = +160.75%
DJI = +111.65%
Equity Indices Total Monthly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
SPX = +91.22%
NDX = +125.274%
DJI = +101.68%
Equities Summary:
While the NASDAQ has had periods of underperformance (for example the dot com bubble burst), on each of the charts you can see that not only has the NASDAQ outperformed (and the Dow underperformed) over time, the NASDAQ has also generally outperformed during each different period measurement. We won't do the math for each period here as that's the main purpose of this indicator, but you can apply the indicator on your own chart and take a look at it yourself.
The main takeaways for us are this:
1. You are better off trading and/or holding the NASDAQ when compared to the 3 main indexes.
2. You are better off trading the S&P than the DJI.
3. The performance of the NASDAQ during COVID isn't an anomaly, and it doesn't necessarily indicate a tech bubble, outperformance in a specific period and overtime is the norm with this index.
Now that you see how this works on the indexes, let's showcase how it can work for other markets.
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RARE EARTH METALS~
Rare Earth Metals Total Annual performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
GOLD = 193.87%
SILVER = 186.72%
PALLADIUM = 361.27%
Rare Earth Metals Total Quarterly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
GOLD = 201.80%
SILVER = 197.60%
PALLADIUM = 304.04%
Rare Earth Metals Total Monthly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
GOLD = 206.59%
SILVER = 209.60%
PALLADIUM = 283.25%
Rare Earth Metals Summary:
As you can see, despite the general public's love of Gold, Palladium vastly outperforms it. Meanwhile, we can confirm Silver underperforms. Many people wouldn't suspect Palladium was superior, but we now know from the resulting data (Hooray!).
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FOREX~
Main Forex USD pairs Total Annual performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
EURUSD = 19.48%
GBPUSD = -9.03%
AUDUSD = 23.90%
Main Forex USD pairs Total Quarterly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
EURUSD = 20.75%
GBPUSD = -16.53%
AUDUSD = 20.98%
Main Forex USD pairs Total Monthly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
EURUSD = 19.57%
GBPUSD = -16.70%
AUDUSD = 21.93%
Forex Summary:
As you can see against a USD base-pair, GBP is the worst performing from the 2000's by all periods. One might assume the more popular EUR pair preformed better than for example AUD, but the reality is AUD takes the cake and preformed better than both EUR and USD by each period over time.
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CRYPTOCURRENCY~
Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Annual performance results:
(Jan. 2017 - present)
BLX = 1351.18%
ETHUSDT = 8967.62%
LTCUSD = 5012.80%
Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Quarterly performance results:
(Jan. 2017 - present)
BLX = 504.60%
ETHUSDT = 1124.81%
LTCUSD = 824.44%
Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Monthly performance results:
(Jan. 2017 - present)
BLX = 357.63%
ETHUSDT = 739.39%
LTCUSD = 530.67%
Crypto Summary:
Crypto has the largest period losses, but it also has the largest period gains (by far). Of all the crypto pairs, ETH offers the best ROI. Interestingly, ETH offers the best ROI of all markets mentioned in this article as well (although it also has the biggest losses and highest risk associated with its uptrends). Some might find it odd that Litecoin outperforms Bitcoin (although like with ETH, the drawdown is notably more intense).
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Conclusion:
Use "Alpha Performance of Period" (PoP) to compare markets for what is best suited to your portfolio depending on your individual risk appetite. It is meant to be used on highly correlated markets, but as you can see you can also compare different sets of markets together to get a sense of which offers the best risk-to-reward, ROI, etc. This tool thus has many uses related to figuring out which markets you want to trade based on historical data and offers a simple way to quickly compare past performance. Hope you guys enjoy it! :D
Resources:
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Tutorial: Fib Extension ToolYou can use it for different things. my main use for it is to project targets based on impuls legs.
not always will price follow the AB=CD target. instead it often reverses before reaching point D.
This tool can help you identify alternative targets.
Technically speaking the shown example of usage isn't called a fib extension but a fib expansion.
you can get fib extensions if you put point A' exactly back to A.
You can find the tool in your drawing toolbar by clicking the third icon and selecting "Trend-Based Fib Extension".
When you click on a drawn fib extension a little options tootlbar will appear where you can customize your fib levels.
Commonly used levels for expansions / extensions are: 0.382 - 0.5 - 0.618 - 0.764 - 1 - 1.272 - 1.414 - 1.5 - 1.618 - 2
Keep in mind though, it is statistically proven that Fibonacci extensions work no better at predicting where price is going to turn than any other percentage.
It's more of a self-fulfilling prohecy than anything else.
Like my Charts? Feel free to donate : )
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Fib Extension ToolYou can use it for different things. my main use for it is to project targets based on impuls legs. not always will an ABCD pattern have the AB=CD 1:1 ratio. CD will often be in a fib ratio to AB like indicated on the chart. using the tool you can find different levels quickly and even set your own custom level values.
You can find it in your drawing toolbar by clicking the third icon and selecting "Trend-Based Fib Extension"





