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Understanding Buying Climax, Stop, and Spring in VSAMastering Institutional Trading: Understanding Buying Climax, Stop, and Spring in Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) Observation – Understanding Buying Climax, Stop, and Spring in Market Structure A buying climax (BC) occurs when price surges sharply alongside high trading volume, signaling strong buying activity. However, this aggressive move often exhausts demand, leading to a stop, where price movement either pauses or begins to reverse. At this point, the market assesses whether buyers can sustain the uptrend or if selling pressure will take over. In Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), a classic sequence is: 1. Buying Climax (BC): A sharp move up with high volume. 2. Stop Bar: Price consolidation or minor pullback after the climax. 3. Spring Bar: A downward shakeout followed by a reversal, indicating the presence of renewed buying interest. A spring bar after a stop is a bullish signal, suggesting that previous selling pressure has been absorbed and institutions may be accumulating positions. If confirmed by a strong up bar with high volume, this signals a potential breakout, as it demonstrates that buyers are stepping back into the market. The strength of the bar following the spring is crucial. A wide-range bullish candle with rising volume confirms that buying pressure is resuming, increasing the probability of an uptrend continuation. However, weak volume or failure to clear key resistance levels can indicate a fakeout, leading to further downside. 🔥 XAUMO Institutional Analysis – Gold (XAU/USD) Tokyo Session (Feb 18, 2025) Market Context – Tokyo Session vs. Prior Market Structure 📍 Current Price: $2,902.98 📍 Key Institutional Levels from Yesterday: • Resistance Rejection: $2,906.30 (VSA Liquidity High) • Support Zone: $2,891.67 - $2,888.11 (Institutional Demand Area) • XAUMO 2RC/Black Swan Stop Zones: $2,892.92 (Key Bullish Trigger or Stop Hunt Zone) Tokyo Session Key Observations ✅ Buying Climax (BC) → Strong price rally with high volume. ✅ Stop Bar Formation → Market paused following the aggressive buying. ✅ Spring Bar Emergence → Potential bullish reversal structure forming. ✅ VSA Condition: Neutral → The market is in transition; no clear trend yet. ✅ Volume Change: -10.7% (Slight decline, indicating caution among buyers). ✅ Spread Change: +23.27% (Wide price movements suggest liquidity testing by institutions). 📊 XAUMO Institutional Breakdown – Understanding Buying Climax & Spring 1️⃣ Buying Climax (BC) – Institutional Aggression & Liquidity Test 🔹 Yesterday, price reached resistance at $2,906.30 and pulled back. 🔹 A sharp rally (BC) on high volume suggested aggressive buying by institutions. 🔹 Liquidity was likely absorbed in the $2,892.92 - $2,891.67 range before the price pushed back up. 📌 XAUMO Key Takeaways: • A buying climax signals strong demand, but the pause suggests Smart Money is evaluating the next move. • The next confirmation move is crucial—continuation or reversal depends on volume and structure. 2️⃣ Stop Bar – Institutional Liquidity Testing 🔹 After the BC, price stalled and formed a stop bar (consolidation). 🔹 This stop represents either accumulation (buying) or distribution (selling). 📌 XAUMO Key Takeaways: • Break below $2,892.92 → Indicates deeper liquidity absorption; potential downside continuation. • Holding above $2,891.67 → Suggests institutions are accumulating for a bullish breakout. 3️⃣ Spring Bar – The Institutional Shakeout Before a Move? 🔹 Price dipped towards $2,891.67 before rebounding—forming a spring bar. 🔹 This can be a bullish signal, but confirmation is needed. 📌 XAUMO Key Takeaways: • If the next candle is a strong up bar with increasing volume → Confirms bullish continuation. • If the price struggles above $2,905+ or volume remains weak → Expect a fakeout and potential dump. 🚀 XAUMO Institutional Trade Plan – Tokyo Session Execution 📈 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (Spring Confirmation & Volume Increases) 💰 Buy XAU/USD @ $2,903.50 - $2,905 📍 Stop Loss: $2,892.92 (Institutional Stop Zone) 🎯 Target Levels: 1️⃣ $2,910 2️⃣ $2,916 3️⃣ $2,923 ✅ Probability: 75% 📌 Why? • The spring bar bounced from liquidity → Possible upside confirmation. • If the next bar shows strength, buyers are stepping in → Expect breakout above $2,906. 📉 Scenario 2: Bearish Rejection (Failure at $2,905 - $2,906 Again) 💰 Sell XAU/USD @ $2,905 📍 Stop Loss: $2,910 🎯 Target Levels: 1️⃣ $2,895 2️⃣ $2,892 3️⃣ $2,888 ✅ Probability: 70% 📌 Why? • If price rejects resistance at $2,906.30, Smart Money is distributing positions. • Volume drop (-10.7%) suggests buyers aren’t fully committed. • Break below $2,892.92 could trigger more sell pressure towards $2,888. 📢 XAUMO Execution Strategy – Final Institutional Outlook ✅ Next hourly bar confirmation is critical → The spring must be followed by a strong up bar for a bullish breakout. ✅ If price holds $2,892 - $2,891.67, upside potential remains valid. ✅ If price fails at $2,906 and volume weakens, expect another rejection and potential downside move. 🔥 Smart Money moves strategically—wait for confirmation before entering! 🚀 📖 XAUMO Institutional Strategy – Simplified for Beginners 1️⃣ Buying Climax (BC): The price surges fast, attracting late buyers, but Smart Money is already planning their next move. 2️⃣ Stop Bar: The price pauses or reverses. This is where institutions test liquidity to see if there’s enough demand for a move higher. 3️⃣ Spring Bar: A small drop that shakes out weak traders before a possible reversal. If confirmed, it means Smart Money is accumulating. 🔹 Next Step? • If buyers come back strong, price breaks higher (bullish). • If volume remains weak, Smart Money sells into the rally, and price drops again (bearish). 💡 Tip: Don’t rush in! Institutions don’t reveal their moves immediately—wait for confirmation before entering a trade. 🚀
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles (Bullish & Bearish) If you spot a large candle with high volume, whether bearish or bullish, you can use Fibonacci retracement on the candle itself to determine potential reversal or continuation zones. Here’s how to apply it in both scenarios: 1️⃣ Large Bearish Candle (Bearish Bar) 📉 (Red candle with high volume closing near the low) How to Identify a Bearish Candle? ✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the low (strong selling signal). ✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Selling (Smart Money Selling). ✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the low, it could indicate hidden buying (stopping volume). How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bearish Candle? 1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bearish candle: • High = The top of the candle. • Low = The bottom of the candle. • This represents the range of the selling pressure in the market. 2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low: • 0% = Low (Bottom of the bearish bar). • 100% = High (Top of the bearish bar). • Key levels to watch: • 38.2% → Weak retracement, market may continue down. • 50% → Balance point, strong resistance possible. • 61.8% → Potential reversal zone; if price fails to break it, the downtrend may continue. • 78.6% → If price breaks this, trend may change. 3️⃣ If the market continues downward, check Fibonacci extensions: • 127.2% & 161.8% → Downside targets if the bearish trend continues. Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Selling ✅ Sell Entry: If the price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and rejects with weak volume. ❌ Stop Loss: Above 61.8% or the last swing high. 🎯 Targets: • Break of the large candle’s low. • Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%. 2️⃣ Large Bullish Candle (Bullish Bar) 📈 (Green candle with high volume closing near the high) How to Identify a Bullish Candle? ✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the high → Strong buying signal. ✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Buying (Smart Money Buying). ✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the high, it could indicate supply absorption. How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bullish Candle? 1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bullish candle: • High = The top of the candle. • Low = The bottom of the candle. • This represents the range of the buying pressure in the market. 2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low: • 0% = High (Top of the bullish bar). • 100% = Low (Bottom of the bullish bar). • Key levels to watch: • 38.2% → Shallow pullback, market may continue up. • 50% → Balance point, potential bounce area. • 61.8% → Strong support zone; if price holds with weak volume, an uptrend may continue. • 78.6% → If broken, trend may reverse. 3️⃣ If the market continues upward, check Fibonacci extensions: • 127.2% & 161.8% → Upside targets if the bullish trend continues. Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Buying ✅ Buy Entry: If price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and bounces with high volume. ❌ Stop Loss: Below 61.8% or the last swing low. 🎯 Targets: • Break of the large candle’s high. • Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%. 🎯 Quick Summary: When to Enter? 🔴 Sell: • Large red candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with weak volume. • Stop loss above 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions. 🟢 Buy: • Large green candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with strong volume. • Stop loss below 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
VSA Rays: Mastering the Art of Predicting Future Price MovementsThe cryptocurrency PUFFER/USDT.P has captured our attention today as it flirts with a critical moment of decision. Currently trading at $0.5659, the price reflects a staggering 44% deviation below its all-time high of $1.0122, achieved just 50 days ago. Yet, it has also soared over 138% from its absolute low, a testament to its volatility and potential for rapid moves​. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near a neutral 50, and buy volume patterns increasingly dominant over the past 24 hours, the market appears to be in a state of consolidation​​. The Moving Average 50 (MA50) at $0.5752 suggests minor overhead resistance, while psychological resistance levels are forming near $0.5961, possibly triggering the next rally​. Fundamentally, macroeconomic whispers of liquidity adjustments and renewed interest in altcoin markets are setting the stage for a bold shift. The big question remains: Is this your chance to ride the wave up, or will the bears claw back dominance at this critical threshold? For both traders and investors, the stakes couldn't be higher. The coming days will determine whether PUFFER/USDT.P’s momentum builds into a breakout or fades into retracement. Are you ready for the ride? The clock is ticking, and this could be your chance to capitalize on a decisive market move. Stay tuned for our detailed analysis on key levels and patterns shaping this opportunity. PUFFER/USDT.P Roadmap: Decoding the Patterns for Success Understanding the flow of market movements is crucial for both traders and investors. Here’s a detailed roadmap of the key patterns recently observed in PUFFER/USDT.P, using historical data to confirm their validity and align with anticipated price directions. January 25, 2025 – VSA Manipulation Buy Pattern 4th Direction: Buy Trigger Point: Low of the last 3 bars ($0.5514) Outcome: The market closed slightly higher at $0.5564, hinting at a bullish impulse. This aligns with the main direction, as the next pattern confirmed upward movement to a high of $0.5777. This is a textbook pattern execution, showing strong buyer momentum. January 26, 2025 – Increased Buy Volumes Direction: Buy Trigger Point: Open price ($0.5628) Outcome: This pattern delivered as expected, with a close above the open at $0.5768. The immediate next high of $0.5777 supports this buy direction, emphasizing consistent buyer dominance. January 25, 2025 – Increased Sell Volumes (Skipped) Direction: Sell Trigger Point: High of the last 3 bars ($0.6345) Outcome: Contrary to the sell direction, subsequent price action leaned bullish. This pattern did not trigger effectively, and its impact is minimal in the broader roadmap. January 24, 2025 – VSA Buy Pattern Extra 1st Direction: Buy Trigger Point: Not applicable Outcome: The market moved consistently higher, with the high extending to $0.6112 shortly after. This pattern highlighted the continuation of a buying trend, supported by increasing volume and a steady climb. January 22, 2025 – Sell Volumes Take Over (Skipped) Direction: Sell Trigger Point: Low of the last 3 bars ($0.5873) Outcome: While sell volumes showed a momentary dip to $0.5873, the market rebounded quickly, invalidating the sell direction and confirming a persistent bullish bias. January 23, 2025 – Buy Volumes Take Over Direction: Buy Trigger Point: Open price ($0.6024) Outcome: The price continued upward to $0.6094, marking this as a clean execution of a bullish pattern. Traders who spotted this transition capitalized on the trend. Key Takeaways from the Roadmap Bullish patterns like VSA Buy Pattern 4th and Buy Volumes Take Over consistently outperformed, confirming strong market optimism. Sell patterns were largely invalidated, indicating underlying buyer control over the asset during the observed period. Trigger points proved reliable markers for entry, with clear follow-through seen in consecutive highs. This roadmap demonstrates how understanding pattern execution and aligning with validated directions can significantly enhance trading success. Watch for future VSA Buy Patterns—they've consistently marked golden opportunities for upward momentum. Stay sharp, and ride the trend! Technical & Price Action Analysis: Key Levels to Watch When it comes to trading, knowing your levels is half the battle. Below are the critical support and resistance zones for PUFFER/USDT.P, straight from the charts. If these levels fail to hold, you can expect them to flip and act as resistance in the future. Mark these on your radar—miss them at your own risk! Support Levels 0.5201 – Your first line of defense; a break below could open the door to further downside. 0.2934 – A deeper support level that traders should keep an eye on if the price dives lower. Resistance Levels 0.5961 – The immediate overhead barrier. Bulls need to clear this for any meaningful push higher. 0.6934 – A higher resistance zone that could attract sell-side interest. 0.7277 – A strong ceiling to watch, marking the upper range of current price action. 0.8881 – A psychological level that’s likely to be a battleground for bulls and bears alike. Powerful Resistance Levels 1.0122 – The absolute high. Breaking and holding above this level would signal a major trend reversal. What Happens If These Levels Fail? If support levels crumble under selling pressure, they’ll likely become resistance as sellers defend their positions. The same goes for resistance—if bulls break through, it flips to support, creating a solid base for further upward momentum. Keep these levels in mind to navigate the chop and make informed decisions in this dynamic market. This is your roadmap to the action—stay sharp, and let the levels guide your trades! Trading Strategies Using Rays: From Concept to Actionable Scenarios The Rays from the Beginning of Movement concept provides a systematic approach to predicting price reactions based on Fibonacci-based geometrical rays. These rays, combined with dynamic factors like moving averages, offer traders a reliable method to identify high-probability trade setups. Below, we outline the framework and suggest two scenarios—optimistic and pessimistic—to align with potential market conditions. Concept of Rays in Action Fibonacci Rays and Their Purpose: Each ray defines key dynamic levels derived from the beginning of the price movement. They help map the probable path of the price and identify zones for potential reversals or continuations. Dynamic Factors: Moving averages (e.g., MA50, MA100, MA200) act as secondary confirmation tools. When price interacts with a ray and aligns with a moving average, the probability of a valid move increases. Actionable Levels: Traders focus on interactions between rays, moving averages, and VSA patterns on the chart. After a confirmed interaction, the price typically moves from one ray to the next, presenting opportunities for profitable trades. Optimistic Scenario: A Breakout with Momentum Initial Interaction Zone: $0.5752 (MA50) First Target: $0.5862 (MA100, next ray level) Second Target: $0.6272 (MA200, upper ray boundary) Third Target: $0.6468 (Extended ray, potential continuation) Commentary: In this scenario, the price demonstrates bullish momentum after interacting with the MA50 and first Fibonacci ray. Buyers take control, driving the price to subsequent ray levels. Pessimistic Scenario: A Controlled Decline Initial Interaction Zone: $0.5752 (MA50) First Target: $0.5201 (Key support level) Second Target: $0.2934 (Lower ray boundary) Third Target: $0.2375 (Absolute low) Commentary: Here, the price fails to sustain above the MA50, leading to a downward interaction with Fibonacci rays. Sellers dominate, targeting progressively lower levels. Potential Trade Setups Based on Ray Interactions Bullish Entry: After price confirms an upward bounce from $0.5752, enter long, aiming for $0.5862 (first target). Place a stop-loss below $0.5730 to manage risk. Bearish Entry: If the price rejects $0.5752, consider a short position targeting $0.5201 with a stop-loss above $0.5770. Breakout Trade: Watch for a breakout above $0.5862 with strong volume. Enter long with targets at $0.6272 and $0.6468. Range Trade: If the price oscillates between $0.5752 and $0.5862, use the range to buy near support and sell near resistance. Final Notes The combination of Fibonacci rays and moving averages creates a robust system for identifying dynamic trade zones. Remember, trades should only be entered after clear interaction and validation from the rays and dynamic factors. Whether the market trends bullish or bearish, these scenarios provide a clear framework for traders to follow and adapt as conditions unfold. Your Turn to Join the Conversation Hey traders and investors! Let’s make this space interactive. If you’ve got questions about the analysis, specific levels, or just want to dive deeper into the strategy—drop them right in the comments. I’ll be happy to answer and discuss with you. If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to hit Boost and save the idea to revisit later. Watching how price reacts to these levels is the best way to learn and grow as a trader. Remember, understanding entry and exit points is key to consistent success. For those interested, my proprietary indicator automatically maps out all the rays and levels you see here. It’s available privately, so if you’re curious about using it, feel free to send me a message directly. Have a specific asset in mind? I’m open to providing analysis! Some ideas I’ll post here for everyone to benefit from, and for others, we can discuss more personalized setups. Whether it’s public or private, we can figure out the best approach together. Lastly, don’t forget to follow me here on TradingView. This is where I post all my insights and updates, and I’d love to have you as part of my trading community. Let’s keep learning and growing together—one chart at a time. 🚀
Education
by brandlabelden
BDL - An update and a VSA Learning ExerciseThis is just a learning exercise. We had anticipated a good move from this stock. However, 1230 was the trigger point for the Up move Now let us do a bar to bar analysis. Refer the box marked “A”. We can see there was a sideways move or a consolidation happening. We can see the prices clustering together and the volume became low. It Indicated accumulation going on. Refer to the bar marked “B”. It is an up bar with increased volume. This bar was an indication that things are about to change. Refer to the Bar marked “C”. The next bar is a wide spread bar going past the trigger point, ending near the top. Also, we can see the volume increased volume indicating a high probable Breakout. And today's bar (marked “D’) opened up above the previous close. The bar did see some selling, but finally it overcame the selling and closed up. Of course, the spread was not, the spread was narrow indicating selling pressure still present. We can see the stock has started its up move and it is all supported by increased volume and the momentum. The price action momentum is also driven by volume and we can see increased relative strength. All that support further up move and the first obstacle we could see would be 1365, where we may see some more consolidation before further up move. This whole exercise is just for learning purpose.
NSE:BDLEducation
by karthikmarar
1
Two Roads to Profit. A Comparison of ICT/SMC and Advanced VSAHello traders and investors! When we start engaging in trading and investing, we get acquainted with various methods of forecasting price movements. Gradually, if we have enough persistence, strength, and patience, we choose our own path to profitable trades. Among the most popular approaches, we can highlight the use of various oscillators and channels, Dow Theory, Elliott Waves, Fibonacci levels, supply and demand, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), market auction theory, and the Inner Circle Trader/Smart Money Concept (ICT/SMC). Many traders combine elements from different approaches into their trading system. I personally prefer a concept I call Advanced VSA. It’s a comprehensive set of tools that combines ideas from VSA, Dow Theory, and Supply and Demand analysis. The name "Advanced VSA" perfectly captures the essence of the method, as it is fundamentally based on analyzing volume and price spread. Recently, the ICT/SMC concept has been gaining more and more popularity. Today, I want to explore the similarities and differences between ICT/SMC and Advanced VSA. If there are any inaccuracies in my explanation of ICT/SMC basics, feel free to correct me in the comments. Perhaps after reading this article, you’ll be able to decide which approach resonates more with you and which one you believe will help you in your trading. I hope this will be helpful. Let’s dive in! Basic Differences Before diving into the technical details, let's first clarify the key differences between these concepts. Who Controls Price Movements The ICT/SMC concept assumes that price movements are controlled by large players, such as market makers, who direct prices in the desired direction. This is similar to a model where one "center of power" determines the market's direction. In contrast, Advanced VSA is based on the idea that two forces influence price — the Buyer and the Seller. All analysis revolves around the interaction between these two sides, creating a more balanced model where both forces are equally important. Traded Volume The ICT/SMC concept does not use traded volume as a part of its analysis. In Advanced VSA, volume is an important factor. It is considered an integral part of the data that helps to understand market processes and the actions of participants. Now let’s move on to a detailed comparison of the elements of these concepts. What They Have in Common Both concepts teach traders to identify price ranges on the chart where a large player (Market Maker in ICT/SMC) or a Buyer (in Advanced VSA) shows interest in buying, and ranges where the Market Maker or Seller is interested in selling. When the price returns to these ranges, traders can execute buys or sells. We can call these price ranges contextual areas for buying and selling. Neither concept relies on technical indicators. Instead, they focus on the following key terms for identifying the trade direction and the trade entry point: Trend Trend break/half-trend Trend confirmation Accumulation/Distribution/Sideways movement/Flat Contextual areas for buying and selling The first four terms help determine the direction of the trade, while the fifth helps identify the entry point and the likely target of the trade. Both methods suggest using higher timeframes to find contextual areas and lower timeframes to find entry points within those areas. What Are the Differences The differences between the concepts lie in the interpretation of key terms. For the first four terms (trend, trend break, trend confirmation, accumulation/distribution/Sideways movement), the distinctions are minor and relate mostly to specific interpretations. However, the main differences arise in the rules for identifying contextual areas of interest (buyer, seller, or market maker). Let's look at these differences in more detail. Difference 1: Use of Volume In ICT/SMC, contextual areas of interest are determined solely based on price action and candlestick patterns, without taking traded volume into account. In contrast, Advanced VSA sees volume as an integral part of the analysis. contextual areas of interest are identified by both traded volume and price behavior (candlestick patterns). If there was interest from a buyer, seller in a specific price range, leading to a price change, it's logical to assume that the volume traded in that range should be higher than in previous periods over a similar timeframe. To illustrate the importance of using all available data for analysis, consider an analogy with choosing the best time for a seaside vacation. If the decision is based only on water and air temperature, while ignoring factors like wind or rainfall, the choice may be misguided. For example, choosing April for its comfortable temperature might result in encountering constant rain and high waves. Thus, in Advanced VSA, volume plays a crucial role, whereas it is absent in ICT/SMC. Difference 2: Types of Contextual Areas of Interest In ICT/SMC, the following types of contextual areas of interest are used: order block, breaker, mitigation block, and rejection block. All of these areas are formed by a specific arrangement of candles on the chart. In contrast, Advanced VSA operates with a different set of contextual areas of interest: effort, zone, and range (sideways movement). Effort refers to a single candle or bar that indicates significant market activity. Zone is formed by a sequence of candles or bars, taking into account their traded volumes. Range (sideways movement) is defined by a series of consecutive candles/bars where price fluctuates within a limited range, interacting alternately with the upper and lower boundaries of the range. It's only possible to identify which party (buyer, seller, or market maker) controls the range after the price breaks out and confirms the move. If the volumes align with Advanced VSA's criteria, order blocks and mitigation blocks in ICT/SMC can be considered as zones in Advanced VSA. So, not all order blocks and mitigation blocks will be considered zones in Advanced VSA. The breaker will be discussed separately, and there is no equivalent to the rejection block in Advanced VSA. Difference 3. Price Attraction Points In ICT/SMC, concepts such as fair value gap, liquidity void, and liquidity are used to describe price attraction points. In Advanced VSA, the terms fair value gap and liquidity void are not utilized. Most of the time, these ICT/SMC elements correspond to price interest points in Advanced VSA, such as effort. The term liquidity has the same meaning. Difference 4. Importance of Levels In Advanced VSA, levels play an important role in identifying trade opportunities. To understand the significance of levels, let’s first recall the concepts of trend and range (sideways movement). In both ICT/SMC and Advanced VSA, a trend is broken down into components, often referred to as impulses or expansion moves. A range, on the other hand, is characterized by its boundaries and the vectors of price movement between those boundaries. In Advanced VSA, important trading signals include the defense of a broken level or a price retracement to a level followed by its defense. In Advanced VSA, the defense of a broken level or the cancellation of a breakout (where the price returns back behind the broken level) followed by a defense of that level is considered a signal for identifying trades. This method helps traders spot potential entry points where either buyers or sellers to protect a key price level, giving more confidence in the direction of the market. The most important levels include the base of the last impulse, the boundaries of a range, and the test level of a zone. In ICT/SMC, there are no direct equivalents of these elements when it comes to searching for trades. However, breakers and sometimes mitigation blocks serve similar purposes to the levels in Advanced VSA, but the approaches differ. In ICT/SMC, trades are typically executed within the breaker or mitigation block, whereas in Advanced VSA, trades are found when a level is defended: buy trades above the level (supported by buyers), and sell trades below the level (supported by sellers). Additionally, Advanced VSA allows for trading within ranges, moving from one boundary to the other, as long as the boundaries are defended. Summary Despite the shared terms and similar approaches, there are significant differences between the two concepts: Number of forces influencing price movement: In ICT/SMC, it is believed that price is controlled by a single force, the Market Maker (MM). In contrast, Advanced VSA considers the interaction of two forces—buyers and sellers—as driving price movements. Use of volume in analysis: ICT/SMC does not take traded volume into account during analysis, while in Advanced VSA, volume is a crucial element for identifying market forces and areas of interest. Use of levels for trade entries: In ICT/SMC, levels do not play an important role, whereas in Advanced VSA, levels one of the possible places for identifying potential trade setups. Good luck with your trading and investing!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by AlexeyWolf
2
How I used Volume Spread Analysis to avoid FOMO trading!As a trader, I often battle with the fear of missing out (FOMO), a common pitfall among traders that can lead to impulsive, unprofitable trades. After reviewing my journal, I determined that chasing breakouts was costing me a significant portion of my account, so I studied Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to help me reduce my urges. Here is how is used VSA to avoid FOMOing a trade. Before we get started, let's clarify two definitions: Volume: Measures the number of times buyers and sellers exchange 1 unit of an asset at an agreed-upon price. It doesn't inherently indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish, but rather that a trade has occurred. Low volume suggests that few transactions have taken place because buyers and sellers couldn't agree on price. High volume suggests that buyers OR sellers felt they were getting a bargain at the current price, leading to many transactions. Spread/Range: The difference between the high and low of a candlestick. A narrow spread indicates little variance between what someone is willing to buy for and what someone is willing to sell for. A wide spread suggests that buyers and sellers have significantly different ideas of what the fair price is. In short, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) interprets the relationship between trading volume and candle spread. When volume and spread agree, they are considered harmonious, and the trend will probably continue. If volume and spread disagree, there is a divergence, and the trend may be weak or could even reverse. In general, there are three main harmonious conditions: Narrowing spread should have narrowing volume. Average spread should have average volume. Widening spread should have widening volume. I spotted a bear flag consolidation on QQQ and decided I would trade the breakout to the downside. I took a break and came back to the chart just after the breakdown had occurred, missing my ideal entry. The candle spread was widening and my first thought was "I have to get in! This thing is free falling!" PAUSE! I reminded myself that I cant make every dollar in the market. If I miss this trade, there will always be another. "Be patient and wait for the market to come back to you." This is the chart after the initial break. What can we observe? QQQ broke the low of day with high volume and a widening red candle. Based on our definitions from earlier, we know that high volume means that buyers or sellers think they are getting a bargain so they are willing to transact as much as they can at current price. Given that price is falling, we can assume that the volume is due to aggressive selling. We remain patient and continue to watch for something to trade against. Next, we see a narrower range candle with a long lower shadow and above average volume. By definition, strong volume with a narrow range is a possible divergence. We know that narrow range candles mean that buyers and sellers generally agree on current price, but why would it close near the highs if the selling was so aggressive? Given that there is a long lower shadow and then a bullish candle close, we can infer that sellers were not willing to sell below $467.89. The buyers absorbed the selling at those prices. Fast forwarding, we notice that the volume and candle size has shrunk back to the average meaning buyers and sellers are in agreeance. The number of people willing to transact is decreasing. We also notice that a small range has formed. Buyers have not stepped in to buy above the previous low of day at $469.35 and the sellers have shown no effort to get back below $467.89. Now we have something to trade against instead of FOMOing in! We will look for a break of this range with increased volume. On the next candle we see bulls break out of the range with aggressive volume and a wide spread candle. Something of note is that the volume on this bull candle is less that the volume of our initial sell candle. If those sellers were still present, wouldn't they be selling at these higher prices and forcing the candle range to be narrow? This shows us that bulls are now in control and the selling from earlier was just a hoax. As we can see, the rest is history. If I FOMOed into the short as I had planned, this trade would have resulted in a loss. Being patient allowed me to realize that there was nothing to miss out on and actually allowed me to find a better trade. Key Notes Always journal your trades and review them Never FOMO into a trade. Be patient and wait for the trade to come to you! You dont need to take every trade to make money in the market. It is okay to miss a trade if it means protecting your account. Volume spread analysis is not 100%, but it can be useful in determining the strength of a trend.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Decam9
32
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Volume and Price DynamicsVolume Spread Analysis (VSA): Understanding Market Intentions through Volume and Price Dynamics. █ Simple Explanation: Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a trading technique that identifies key market patterns and trends by analyzing the relationship between volume and price spread, revealing traders' actions and market behavior. Essentials in Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Laws. VSA Indicator. Signs of Strength. Signs of Weakness. Note that while the provided examples are excellent for illustrating the points, they are unlikely to play out perfectly in most scenarios. █ Laws Three basic laws forming the foundation of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). The Law of Supply and Demand This law states that supply and demand balance each other over time. High demand and low supply lead to rising prices until demand falls to a level where supply can meet it. Conversely, low demand and high supply cause prices to fall until demand increases enough to absorb the excess supply. The Law of Cause and Effect This law assumes that a 'cause' will result in an 'effect' proportional to the 'cause'. A strong 'cause' will lead to a strong trend (effect), while a weak 'cause' will lead to a weak trend. The Law of Effort vs Result This law asserts that the result should reflect the effort exerted. In trading terms, a large volume should result in a significant price move (spread). If the spread is small, the volume should also be small. Any deviation from this pattern is considered an anomaly. █ VSA Indicator This indicator simplifies the identification of Volume and Spread Levels. It provides options to display volume and/or spread bars. An enhanced version of the indicator auto-scales both volume and spread for optimal chart presentation, reloading every time the chart is moved. Levels: Representing the levels of both volume and spread using the terminalogy of low, normal, high, and ultra. Indicator Version 1: Display volume and/or spread bars. When both are displayed, the spread bars are shown in a fixed quantity. Indicator Version 2: Display both volume and spread bars, with the spread bars scaled to the volume bars. █ Signs of Strength Indicates that the market is likely to experience bullish behavior. Down Thrust: Indicates strong buying interest at lower prices, suggesting a potential upward reversal. Selling Climax: Signifies a reversal point as panic selling exhausts and smart money starts accumulating. Bear Effort No Result: A large downward price move without strong selling effort (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the down move may be unsustained. No Effort Bear Result: Strong selling effort (volume) fails to push prices down indicating an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of downward momentum. Inverse Down Thrust: Shows buyers overpowering sellers, likely leading to a bullish market reversal. Failed Selling Climax: Failed selling effort suggests strong buying support and a possible upward trend reversal. Bull Outside Reversal: Indicates strong buying reversing a downtrend, confirmed by higher close. End of Falling Market: Signifies strong buying absorbs panic selling at new lows, likely leading to stabilized price or reversal. Pseudo Down Thrust: Suggests weakening of the downward momentum with a potential upward continuation if broken above high. No Supply: Indicates a lack of selling interest at lower prices, potentially setting up for a price rise. █ Signs of Weakness Indicates that the market is likely to experience bearish behavior. Up Thrust: Indicates sellers overpowering buyers during a price rise, suggesting a potential downward reversal. Buying Climax: Represents peak buying, typically at price highs, with potential for reversal as sellers take control. No Effort Bull Result: A large upward price move without strong buying pressure (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the up move may be unsustained. Bull Effort No Result: Strong buying (volume) fails to drive prices higher indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of upward momentum. Inverse Up Thrust: Increased selling pressure during an uptrend suggests a possible shift to a downtrend. Failed Buying Climax: High buying volume fails to sustain higher prices, indicating a potential reversal to downtrend. Bear Outside Reversal: Strong selling pressure reversing an uptrend, signaling a potential downtrend. End of Rising Market: Indicates buying saturation at market peaks, suggesting a possible reversal as demand exhausts. Pseudo Down Thrust: Indicates weakening upward momentum with potential for downward continuation if broken below low. No Demand: Indicates reduced buying interest at higher prices, possibly leading to a price decline.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TanHef
9
MAX HEALTHCARE - Preparing for a MOVE - Bar by Bar AnalysisBar by Bar Analysis - Learning VSA Bar A - Here there is a definite attempt to move towards the price rejection zone after a small consolidation. We have a widespread up bar closing at the top. This closing was near the boundary of the rejection zone. Bar B - we can see it was a clear attempt to “Jump across the supply”. But it met with supply and it was pushed back into the price rejection zone. The volume remained high which means there has been good amount of supply here. Bar C - Again there is an attempt to move up on above average volume but lower than the two previous days. Bar D - You can see that there was no effort to push up the price rather it was more of an attempt to absorb whatever supply that could be there. But the supply also did not step in here. Again, the prices pushed back into the price rejection zone. In the next bar you can see that it is almost like a doji with a long wick indicating supply still there but the volume is still below average. It was not real attempt to push the prices up here rather it was the supply being absorbed. Bar E - In the Bar you can see we had a widespread up bar closing up on the top but the volume remained quite low here. The supply did not step in and the buyers were able to push up the price without much resistance. Bar F – The bar opened above the previous high and moved up. But supply overwhelmed and we had clear up thrust bar trapping many Breakout traders. Bar G – The next two bar are down bars on very low volume. The supply was very low. Clearly the smart money is absorbing the selling from the trapped BO traders. The current down move with low volume and Upthrust Trap move would indicate that the Smart Money could soon make a strong attempt to move up the price. The relative Strength has been positive. Money flow has been positive as well. Then we will see the real BO and the price move much higher. A good close 910 will be significant now. A stock to watch
NSE:MAXHEALTHEducation
by karthikmarar
Learning the Ropes: Shortening of Thrust (SOT)Hello, traders! Today we're going to discuss an important technical analysis technique that can help you spot potential trend reversals - the Shortening of Thrust (SOT). This method can be a game changer for new and experienced traders alike. Let's dive in! 🔎 What is Shortening of Thrust (SOT)? Shortening of Thrust (SOT) is a technique used to identify potential reversals in a trend, this technique is a part of Wyckoff and VSA theory. It is based on the observation that the strength of a trend tends to weaken as it approaches a reversal point. This weakening is often evidenced by a shortening of the thrusts, or strong price moves, that characterize the trend. How to Spot SOT To spot SOT shortening of thrust, you can follow these steps: Identify the current trend. This can be done by looking at the overall direction of the price action. For example, if the price is making higher highs and higher lows, then the trend is up. Identify the previous swing high Calculate the thrust of the current move. This is done by subtracting the previous swing high from the current swing high or low. For example, if the current swing high is 100 and the previous swing high is 80, then the thrust of the current move is 20. Compare the thrust of the current move to the thrust of previous moves in the same direction. If the thrust of the current move is shorter than the thrust of previous moves, then this is a sign of SOT shortening of thrust For example, let's say that the price is in an uptrend and you identify the following swing highs and lows: Swing high: 100 Previous swing high: 80 2nd last Previous swing high : 60 The thrust of the current move is 100 - 80 = 20. The thrust of the previous move is 80 - 60 = 20. Since the thrust of the current move is the same as the thrust of the previous move, there is no sign of SOT shortening of thrust. However, if the next swing high is only 110, then the thrust of the current move would be 110 - 100 = 10. This is shorter than the thrust of the previous move, which was 20. This would be a sign of SOT shortening of thrust. distance between the current swing low and previous swing low in a downtrend can be used to measure thrust . To do this, simply subtract the previous swing low from the current swing low. The result is the thrust of the current move. Spotting SOT in Higher Time Frames In an uptrend, if the distance between the high of the previous candle and the high of the current candle decreases, it might signal an upcoming SOT. Conversely, in a downtrend, if the distance between the low of the previous candle and the low of the current candle decreases, we may be witnessing an SOT. To illustrate, consider this example: In this chart, we see an uptrend with each high of the candles getting progressively closer to the next, indicating an up thrust. This signals an SOT and a subsequent reversal of the trend. 📊 Using SOT in Trading SOT can be used to identify entry points for trades against the trend. Traders can use SOT to identify entry points for trades against the trend. For example, a trader might identify a SOT in an Downtrend and enter a long position in anticipation of a reversal. It's crucial to use SOT in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and confirmation signals before making any trading decisions. Here are some additional tips for spotting SOT: Look for SOT in areas where there is other evidence of trend weakness, such as overbought or oversold conditions or divergences between price and momentum indicators. Use SOT in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and confirmation signals before making any trading decisions. Be aware that SOT can sometimes be false signals, so it is important to have a trading plan in place to manage your risk. Conclusion Shortening of Thrust (SOT) is a potent tool in a trader's arsenal, helping to identify potential reversals in a trend. However, remember that it's not a perfect indicator and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and confirmation signals before making any trading decisions. 🤝 Thank you for your continuous support, likes 🚀, follows, and comments. Your engagement keeps me motivated to consistently provide valuable content.
NSE:KPITTECHEducation
by AfnanTAjuddin
4
Bull Bear Power Void - Your volume oscillator is lying to you.The simplicity of this indicator is REALLY what has me gassed up. It's the smallest indicator I have coded but it is just so powerful. There are a million oscillators out there based on volume. My biggest problem with them is that they simply tell you whether you have volume to the upside or volume to the down side. It kind of tricks you with the lack of information into thinking you have a change in your trend or that you're going to be able to break out of a range across a moving average or through some trend line or support and resistance. However many of these Oscillators are failing because they lack to tell you one key thing. They tell you that you have volume but they never tell you if it's enough volume. Even a popular indicator like the MACD can have its MACD Line crossing upwards over the signal, telling you that you have an uptrend but again it's still failing to give you the results of how much volume of trades you have and "is it enough" volume in that crossover. It boils down to the one key fact that without volume there is no momentum. This should be able to make trading crossovers a lot easier. So in today's video I'm going to show you the newest addition to the trading View Community Scripts and it is called, "The Bull Bear Void Volume Oscillator" Use this link to get it for free From my own testing, this oscillator can predict whether the next candle will get you the move you need or not. In the markets you cannot have anything good without volume. After you have volume you have momentum. You cannot have momentum without volume and this is the key thing that causes people to fail when they look for breakouts, trend reversals, or if they're wondering whether this move is a fake out. This indicator is based on the study of volume spread analysis or VSA. This indicator is designed to be paired perfectly with the Heiken Ashi Algo oscillator. Get it here This indicator is strictly to be used as a confirmation indicator and not to be used by itself to tell you when to buy or sell. What are its Parts? The Colored Columns or Volume Bars RED Column - Indicates volume movie downward Light Red - indicates volume is pulling back from a downward move Green - indicates volume is moving upwards Light Green - indicates volume is moving down from an outboard move The void Is Green for bullish and red for bearish. This is a Cloud that appears extending from the center upwards and downwards. This is the average range of volume. Anything volume closing inside of this void is ranging volume or very little volume and it is not enough to break the trend or break out. The MACD and MACD Signal Line Just like using the macd these two lines indicate whether the trend is moving up or the trend is moving down. But in this oscillator it's been colorized to show you when profits are being taken versus new positions being opened in either direction. Rules for a SELL CONFIRMATION TRADE The macd line must be underneath the signal line and the macd line must be below the midline. A bullish column must appear below the midline and it must extend outside of the red void. if you are using the heikin-ashi Aldo oscillator you must also have a red Heiken Ashi candle close below -10. The MACD trend line must be a solid color and NOT black. To open a LONG position you simply reverse the rules.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
21
Wyckoff trading using the example of ADA/BTC Accumulation schemePay attention to the phases and letter designations on the graph that I showed on the ADA / BTC pair. (Cardano). A diagram of the accumulation phases is shown. Which are relevant for trading now. Several trading methods are combined on the chart: 1) Trading by the Wyckoff method. 2) Trade in horizontal channels. 3) Trade from important areas (price reversal points). 4) Trading in secondary local trends. Now the price is at the important zone of the mirror level which, from the development of the situation, can act as support or resistance. Channel pitch 30%. You can work in two directions. _________________________________ About Wyckoff's trading method. The forerunner of volume analysis (VSA) is Richard Wyckoff. Roughly speaking, the whole point of the method can be expressed - trade for a major market player. The creator of this technique himself was a man who had a system-forming influence on stock trading. It was not a poor theorist who got rich after publishing books! He was a very successful trader and earned impressive capital in his day. The very method that he was allowed to achieve and the entire 40 years of experience in trading, he published in his book in the public domain is already closer to his death Wall Street Ventures and Adventures Through Forty Years. At the end of his life's journey, Wyckoff became more altruistic, and decided to share the knowledge that led him to wealth. He died in 1934. The Wyckoff trading method was developed in the early 1930s. It consists of a number of principles and strategies originally developed for traders and investors. Wyckoff devoted much of his life experience to studying market behavior, and his work still has an impact on much of modern technical analysis (TA). Currently, the Wyckoff method is applied to all types of financial markets, although initially it was focused only on stocks. During the creation of his work, Wyckoff was inspired by the trading methods of other successful traders (especially Jesse Livermore). Today, he enjoys the same respect as other key figures such as Charles Dow and Ralph Nelson Elliott. But for example, unlike Elliot’s theory, which is good in theory, but not always applicable in practice, the Wyckoff method is many times more effective for making money not in theory, but in practice. _________________________________________ According to Richard Wyckoff's trading method, there are 3 laws: 1) The law of supply and demand. 2) The law of causation. 3) The law of communication efforts and results. The first law states that the value of assets begins to rise when demand exceeds supply, and accordingly falls in the reverse order. This is one of the most basic principles in the financial markets, which does not exclude Wyckoff in his work. We can represent the first law in the form of three simple equations: 1) Demand> supply = price increases. 2) Demand
Education
by SpartaBTC
6
Supply and Demand patterns scanned automaticallyVery often the main issue for traders is to just on time (quickly?) spot on chart correct patterns that may warn traders about incoming to market Supply or Demand. Everyone tries to catch reversals as this is beginning of potentially long new trend. And asking yourself try to answer honestly to yourself - how often you skipped the move because you didn't notice it at first glance and only it was visible to you AFTER the move happen, when you revisited chart and tried to take lesson learnt from chart and wondering why you didn't enter trade that time.. There could be a lot of reasons of that but one of main that I try to fight is - eliminate subjectiveness. Therefore still I don't automate trading, but try to get potential signals identified by software. After multiple months of research and work, I modified original VSA approach and prepared better version of definitions combining knowledge and tips from multiple VSA Experts. That's how software was created and is learnt to identify Demand and Supply Signals automatically notifying me via alerts/notifications about potential trades. When we add to those signals automatic drawing of Volume Zones, we have complete trading system. Especially during first retest Volume Zones works like a charm when there's perfect opportunities to enter trades in original direction of first breakthrough. On chart I also marked recent examples of Demand & Supply signals that were identified by Scanner BEFORE the trend move happened. Still judgement of trader (manual) is needed but Scanner gives already big edge on market. Combining this with Volume Analysis known from VSA approach and with knowledge about basic market structures, there's no other option than become profitable trader. Of course if you follow your own trading rules and properly manage money alongside with Risk:Reward ratio.
EUREX:FDAX1!Education
by skyline-trader
support zonesI thought to teach you a really simple concept, but that is often overlooked by beginners and experienced traders. As you can appreciate from the chart different bars and zones has different volume. Also, a more experienced eye can analyse the spread of the candle and closes to gain different information, but this will be the topic of future webinars and discussion. Now, keeping it easy... we know that where there is a high volume it means the participants were really enthusiastic and they were trying to push prices lower or higher. These areas will in the future turn into support/resistance areas. This is because buyers or sellers have a psychological attachment to these areas, whether they bought/ breaking even, missed an opportunity or in profit. In the cases here highlighted strong support were posed buy buyers on these zones and seller were trying to push prices lower...Buyer won the fight so many sellers are underwater from these areas and they will look into break even at these areas and also possibly opening long positions as they felt like last time they lost profit opportunities, also traders late at the party will look to add or enter a new position as they expect the price to climb from these zones as they provided good support last time. So look for these areas to find good horizontal support zones. Also for the seak of the example, I used 30 min timeframe but remember that higher timeframes are more reliable and present stronger support zones where intraday timeframes show just local support and resistance zones.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by CFcryptoTA
2
Identifying support and resistance levels for day tradingCheck out my video on how to identify support & resistance and other key levels to prepare for day trading session. I am using S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! as examples to prepare for trading session on 16 & 17 Apr 2020 (Thurs, Fri). Key levels I pay attention to: Previous day high Previous day low non-Regular Trading Hours (RTH) high non-RTH low Swing high from a few days ago Swing low from a few days ago Swing high/low formed during the trading timeframe (M3, M5). The day trading process is very simple. Basically just to pay attention to how the price interacts with the key levels and trade on reversal or continuation.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
Will it happen again for S&P500 Future ES using analog from 20088 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures CME_MINI:ES1! had a strong rally up and closed near the high around 2750. The strong price action has totally ignored the bearish tone set in 7 Apr 2020, where ES was up more than more than 3% but closed down on the day. In 2008, similar situation had happened a few times, such as on 3, 14, 17 Oct 2008. Every times after the price rejection, ES started a downswing. If we pay close attention to 17-18 Oct 2008, it is similar to ES current situation (7-8 Apr 2020) because the rejection bar was followed by a strong demand bar both in 2008 and 2020. Yet, a down swing was followed in 2008 after the strong demand bar, as shown in the chart as illustrated. Historical analog is good for reference and keep us to anticipate potential scenarios. However, always trade according to the charts. So far, ES does not show any emergence of supply., which is a bullish sign. Could it grind higher to stretch to around 2800? Bias - neutral. A range bound between 2630-2750 can be expected. A break below 2600-2630 will validate the up thrust scenario. A break above 2750 should see a test of 2800. Key levels - Resistance: 2750-2780 Support: 2700, 2600-2630. Potential intraday setup - A short entry is preferred. Pay close attention on how the price interacts with the key levels, swing high, swing low, neckline, etc...
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
Up Thrust of ES S&P500 future - What's next move?7 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures (ES) tested the target around 2700-2770 yesterday and had an up thrust movement on level 2700 before closing below 2650, as per my trading idea yesterday. It had a great run-up during the non regular trading hours (RTH). However, weakness did show up during the US session. ES was rejected from the target 2700-2770 with increasing supply. The down wave is the greatest for the H1 trend started from the low at 2450, suggests a change of character, which means that the up move could stop at least for now, into a trading range or even a reversal to move down. During today's non-RTH session, ES had a weak rally up, tested only 50% of the last hour bar from yesterday followed by a reversal bar, which could be a sign of weakness. Should ES break below the support levels at 2600-2635, it could test lower targets like 2400-2450 or even the selling climax's low at 2174. However, if the levels 2600-2635 are defended, with absorption characteristics, ES could test the swing high at around 2750 and possible to grind higher. Bias - bearish. Expect a break of 2600-2630 to test lower. Key levels - Resistance: 2650-2700 Support: 2600-2630. Swing high and swing low from lower timeframe. Potential intraday setup - look for an up thrust or test of swing high at 2658, 2680 and/or key levels followed by a reversal to short. If ES can commit below 2600, I will consider to switch the position to swing trade instead of day-trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES S&P500 future - breakout to start a bull run? Analog inside6 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures (ES) had a great rally to take out the immediate resistance at 2525 during the non-Regular Trading Hour (RTH) and to further commit above 2600-2635 during the RTH. Since ES broke out the trading range between 2440-2630, it is expected to test the higher target at 2700-2770. It is worth noting that the upside target at 2700-2770 coincides with : Fibonacci retracement of around 50% from the top (3397) to the selling climax (SC) low of 2174, as shown in the daily chart. Axis line or flip zone where there is strong resistance and supply available, as shown in the H4 chart. During the crash in Jan 2018, ES did up thrust twice before it came down to test the selling climax low. Using Jan 2018's event as an analog, we should be aware that an up thrust is a possible scenario. Bias - Slightly bullish. Expect ES to test the upside target but also prepare n up thrust bearish scenario similar to 2018. Key levels - Resistance: 2700-2770 Support: 2600-2635. Swing high and swing low from smaller timeframe Potential intraday setup - look for an up thrust or test of the key levels / smaller timeframe for a short entry. Possible long entry at the support should it happen.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
Is the ES rally done yet? What's next?3 Apr 2020 recap - ES did rally to level 2525 and was rejected again. In smaller time frame (M1, M3), it did provide great short entry after the up thrust of the level. However, ES only managed to test 2450 and bounced up from there. The low volume without aggressive demand caused ES to drift down. Should ES still stuck below 2525, it should break down to test 2400 or even lower (i.e. the Selling climax's low), under the background of lacking of demand. Daily - After a sharp sell off, ES formed a selling climax (SC) low at 2174 followed by an automatic rally (AR). Now, it seems like the rally is coming to and end. The next move would be a secondary test (ST) to test the selling climax's low. It could in a form of a higher low, similar low or even lower low. Oct 2008 global financial crisis could provide a good analog for reference. Could we see a down-sloping accumulation structure similar to 2008? Weekly - a megaphone structure is formed. ES could potentially test the low as illustrated should a down-sloping structure in progress. This won't surprise me given the COVID-19 situation is getting worse every day and the impact on the businesses. Bias - bearish. If ES fails to commit above 2525, it should break down to test 2400 or lower, sooner or later. Key levels - Resistance: 2480, 2525. Support: 2450, 2400. Potential intraday setup - Look for a test or up thrust of the key levels and/or smaller timeframe to initiate a short entry. Yet, I will pay close attention for long opportunities like a spring of the swing low, shortening of the downward thrusts, etc... should it arise. Stay safe and happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES price action analysis for 3 Apr 2020 trading plan 2 Apr 2020 recap - Although yesterday was a bullish day, the character does not confirm this. It started with ugly numbers of jobless claims, which drove ES down to spring the low (around 2433) of the previous day followed by a rally up to test 2525 thanks to a spike up in crude oil. It was highlighted in M15 chart that the 2 candles tested the 2525 level has volume spike, suggests the demand was met by supply at this level. On the daily chart, candle b (yesterday) has slight increase of volume compare to candle a, yet the result (to the up side) is mediocre. The rally from yesterday only reached about half way of the previous down candle. This suggests supply was present and managed to stop the up move at level 2525. Bias - slightly bearish. If ES fails to break above 2525 with aggressive demand, it might break below the swing low at 2425 and test further down. Potential intraday setup - Look for how ES interacts with 2525 or structures in smaller timeframe. A short entry after a test or up thrust of level 2525 is preferred. Key levels - Resistance: 2500, 2525 Support: 2450, 2425. Swing high and swing low from lower time frame. Note: Since yesterday has increase of supply, it is important to see how significant is the reaction. A trading range between 2425-2525 will be neutral. A break above 2525 is bullish and expect continuation of the rally. A break below 2425 should draw out more supply to test 2380 or lower.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong