Get started

225jpy

JP225 3-7 Nov 51,600 to 51,700 first defense into ISM and NFPWhy this idea exists Friday closed at 52,411.34, a new record after an explosive October. We are heading into an event heavy week with Tokyo cash closed on Monday for Culture Day while Osaka derivatives trade. That mix invites gap risk into the Tuesday cash open. Midweek brings Japan PMIs and Toyota results. The United States adds ISM Services on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. My job for the week is to respect the breakout, know where I am wrong, and avoid being caught during the data windows. How to set up your chart Timeframe 1 hour on JP225 or JPN225 depending on your broker. Draw a horizontal band at 51,600 to 51,700. This is the breakout retest zone formed by Friday low near 51,613 and the prior day high. Mark 52,500 as the first shelf above and 53,000 as a psychological magnet. Below, mark 51,300 as the prior record close and 50,500 to 50,200 as the first deeper shelf. If you like context, add a simple Fibonacci retrace from the October swing at 46,544 to 52,411. The 38.2 percent area near 50,170 and the 50 percent area near 49,480 line up with that lower shelf. No need for a basket of indicators. Keep the view clean so you can read order flow around those bands. What actually moves price this week Monday Tokyo cash is closed, derivatives are open. That means futures can lead the tone before cash resumes. Tuesday brings the final Japan manufacturing PMI. Wednesday brings the Japan services PMI and Toyota results, then United States ISM Services late in the Tokyo evening. Friday brings United States nonfarm payrolls. China adds a services PMI and a trade balance print that can tug cyclicals on the margin. The index is also sensitive to the yen. A sharp yen firming is the classic blindside for the bulls, while a soft yen tends to support exporters and the headline beta. The playbook in three parts Base case Sideways to higher while the market digests the calendar. As long as price is accepted above 51,600 to 51,700 on closing basis, the path of least resistance remains higher. Within that regime I expect rotational pushes toward 52,500 and attempts at 53,000 around event hours. I will let futures do the talking on Monday and use Tuesday cash open to judge whether buyers defend the band on first touch. Upside extension A firm 4 hour close north of 52,500 with ranges contracting into the close usually sets up a controlled push into 52,800 to 53,000. If that move happens on an event day, accept slippage and keep stops outside recent 2 times ATR on the 4 hour chart. The goal is to avoid getting chopped by headline noise after the first spike. Downside checkback A clean failure of 51,600 with a wide range breakdown candle and rising volume changes the game. In that case I expect a step down into 50,500 to 50,200 which is the first proper shelf with multiple reference highs and closes. I will not fade the first touch unless intraday structure rebuilds with higher lows. In a stronger flush the Fibonacci 38.2 and 50 percent zones become the next map points, not instant buy zones. Risk budget and timing Average daily range late last week was close to eight hundred points. That is your sizing reality. If your stop is tighter than half of that number you should expect frequent noise hits. My default this week is a stop outside half to three quarters of the recent daily range for swing attempts, tighter only intraday when structure is clean. I do not initiate new risk within fifteen minutes before or after the following windows: Japan PMIs, Toyota press conference start, United States ISM at ten hundred Eastern, United States payrolls at zero eight thirty Eastern. During the Monday cash holiday I treat futures signals as information, not obligation, and I accept that Tuesday cash can gap past my levels. What would change my mind quickly One, a sharp yen firming coupled with a hot United States prices subindex inside ISM. Two, a Toyota miss or conservative guide that knocks autos and suppliers at the open. Three, a sudden rumor cycle about Bank of Japan that lifts Japanese Government Bond yields and flips the dollar yen tone. Any of these can turn a routine retest into a full range day. Three simple rules to run all week • Hold above 51,600 to 51,700 on closing basis favors continuation toward 52,500 then 53,000. • Lose 51,600 with a wide breakdown and volume, expect a rotation into 50,500 to 50,200 and stand aside until structure rebuilds. • Never take a fresh position inside the five minute window around the major releases. If in doubt, flatten and re enter after the first post event pullback. One chart to keep open A clean 4 hour chart with the bands drawn, a single session separator, and a twenty period ATR panel. That is enough to keep you on the right side of the map without drowning in signals. Disclosure and intent This is education and market analysis, not investment advice. Manage your own risk. If you post your own map, tag the levels you defended and note what you learned. It compounds faster than any entry trick.
TVC:NI225
by exlux
NIkkei 225 10 year ProfileBOJ intervened for the first time since 1998, to prop up it's the YEN, with some speculation they likely sold a lot of their massive reserves of long end (10-30 year) US T Bills to buy back the Yen. This hypothesis appears supported by the lack of short end yield movement at 4-5a, EST at time of BOJ intervention announcement late last week. Of note in this chart are: - Almost a decade long volume profile aligned with vPOC at 382 retrace. - Structure of current price action seemingly mirroring the covid structure as represented by the fractal in light blue above.
OANDA:JP225USD
by Linneaus
1
China-U.S. agreement opens up space for A-shares to risePresident Trump Yesterday brought a New Year's gift to investors around the world, tweeting that he and Prime Minister Liu will sign the first phase of the China-U.S. trade deal at the White House on January 15 and will visit Beijing later to begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement. This is undoubtedly an important message, indicating that the two-year-long trade war is finally about to press the pause button, which is good for China and the global economy. Of course, fo r China's A-shares is more important good. I believe that in the first quarter, more funds will flow into the market. Let us compare another trade conflict that took place 30 years ago, the us-Japan trade war, when the US and Japan signed the Plaza Agreement on September 22, 1985, and we look at the Nikkei index, which rose by 207% from 1985 to December 1989. This is at odds with the damage many people have done to trade wars. As for the reasons, I have also analyzed it before. At the moment we look at A-shares, it's very likely that the Nikkei will be replicated and there's a chance of doubling in 2020.
S
by peter-l