AAVE/USDT — Key Demand Reaction: Breakout or Another Rejection?On the 4D timeframe, AAVE’s movement against USDT still appears to be in a medium-term corrective phase after failing to maintain its previous higher high structure.
Price has just reacted from a strong demand zone that has repeatedly acted as a buyer defense area.
Key marked zones:
Demand / Support: 128 – 112 (yellow block)
Layered Resistances: 146 → 175 → 205 → 242 → 288 → 305 → 350
Market structure remains held below a descending trendline that has been pressing price since the last peak.
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Pattern Formation
1. Descending Triangle / Falling Structure
The downward trendline connecting lower highs indicates:
Sellers are still dominant
Every rally gets rejected at lower levels
Distribution pressure is still ongoing
However, the 128–112 support base continues to hold → forming a descending triangle structure.
2. Multi Rejection Resistance Ladder
Resistance areas are stacked in layers:
Indicates distributed supply
Each level is a potential profit-taking zone
Breakout must occur step-by-step, not instantly
3. Strong Horizontal Demand
The yellow block represents historical demand:
Previously became the base of a major rally
High buying volume
Long wick reactions indicate absorption
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Key Levels
Main Supports
128 – 112 → Key demand (current reaction zone)
95 → Minor support if breakdown occurs
70 → Extreme low liquidity zone
Main Resistances
146.5 → Nearest resistance + trendline test
175 → Mid resistance
205 → Break confirmation level
242 → Strong supply
288 – 305 → Distribution range
350 → Major macro resistance
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Bullish Scenario
Bullish becomes valid if price can:
1. Hold above the 128 – 112 demand
2. Break the descending trendline
3. Close strongly above 146.5
If that happens, upside potential:
175 → First resistance
205 → Bullish structure shift
242 → Supply test
288 – 305 → Distribution zone
350 → Macro target
This structure would shift the market from:
Lower High → Higher High
Meaning a medium-term trend reversal could begin.
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Bearish Scenario
Bearish activates if:
1. Price fails to break the trendline
2. Gets rejected at 146 – 175
3. Falls back below 128
Consequences:
Demand breakdown
Long position liquidations
Continued downside momentum
Downside targets:
112 → Last demand line
95 → Next support
70 → Extreme downside
If 112 breaks, structure shifts into:
Continuation Bearish Trend
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Conclusion
Price is currently in a decision zone
128 – 112 demand is the buyer defense base
Descending trendline is the breakout key
Two major possibilities:
1. Trendline break → Gradual rally to 205 – 242 – 288
2. Rejection → Demand breakdown → Drop to 95 – 70
The market is in a compression phase before expansion.
Large moves typically occur after price exits triangle structures + demand bases like this.
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Long
