Agree Realty | ADC | Long at $72.37Agree Realty NYSE:ADC
Summary: A "boring" REIT with a 4.2% dividend, ~68% investment-grade tenants, high occupancy (~99%), average lease terms of 10+ years, which include major tenants Walmart (top tenant), Dollar General, Tractor Supply, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, TJ Maxx, O'Reilly Auto Parts, CVS, Kroger, Lowe's, Hobby Lobby, Burlington, Sherwin-Williams, Sunbelt Rentals, Wawa, Home Depot....
Technical Analysis: Cup and handle formation may be forming off the recent double bottom (bullish). Two open price gaps remain on the daily chart since 2020 (down near $59) - chance these may get closed if the market turns in the near-term. However, REITs average +30% returns within 16 months post-Fed rate cuts, so patience may benefit investors here.
Follow the Money : Insiders buying .
Company Financial Health: Strong. $2.3B liquidity, no material debt maturities until 2028, and investment-grade balance sheet (A- rating from Fitch). Debt-to-assets ~40%, covered by stable net-lease rents. Macro risks (e.g., tenant bankruptcies like At Home, consumer slowdown) exist but are mitigated by diversification. Altman Z-Score suggests low distress and no near-term catalysts for insolvency.
Earnings and Revenue Growth: ~4% between 2025 and 2027 (slow growth, but good/steady for a REIT).
Thus, at $72.37, NYSE:ADC is in a personal buy zone for a likely move up given the high probability of lower interest rates in the future. A near-term risk of a drop to $59 could occur, but REITs often move higher within 1-2 years after interest rates cuts. It's a solid company financially with a good dividend.
Targets into 2028:
$80.00 (+10.5%)
$90.00 (+24.3%)
