Petrobras Brasileiro: Corruption undermines Fitch RatingI've flagged Brazil's state-owned mega-energy firm Petrobras Brasileiro ADR (NYSE: PBR) because the SEC is investigating the energy firm for money-laundering and corruption, thus skewing Fitch Ratings of PBR. Since PBR owns a Texan refinery, PBR it is accountable under US jurisdiction. PBR has been found in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and "other laws". I highly suspect "other laws" may very well be The Racketeer Influenced and Corruption Organizations Act (RICO), taking into account PBR's "cartel" influence in the global energy sector.
$PBR closed at $10.50 at the closing bell; -$.34 or -3.14%. Its price range was $11.51 at pre-market, opening around $11.15 then plummeting down to $10.41 during Wall Street's Witching Hour.
What is more shocking is to learn that the Fitch Ratings just released at the same time; gave an upgrade on the series of notes to "BBB"; the "issuance of which are backed by the royalty flows owed by oil concessionaires, predominately, PBR, and Rio De Janeiro (RJS), of which 100% flows to RioPrevidencia (RP), the states pension fund."
In part, the USD 1.1 billion series 2014-3 notes 'BBB', Outlook Stable and BRl 2.4 billion series 2014-2 special indebtedness interests notes affirmed at 'AAAsf(bra)', Outlook Stable.
PBR's cartel is backing a capital investment program at USD 220 billion between 2014 and 2018.
PBR is an asset to be used when the market performance is shaky. Its personality
Currently the downside calculation of price per share: $.54.
ADR
Why Markets Could Dip 10% or more?The last time ADR peaked above 3.5x was followed by 11% drop by S&P500. Most recent ADR peak stood at 7.38x registered last month. That is double the 3.5x extreme level, which suggests extreme overoptimism for stocks. Usually, as history shows, it is followed by at least 10% correction.
ADR proved to be extremely useful market peak spotting tool. For explanation and historical back-test check here:
www.capitalhubs.com
Best
CH

