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the market trinity ( power of 3 )The Hidden Phases of Smart Money: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution Markets don’t move randomly, they move in cycles. Behind the price action, smart money (institutions, market makers, and big players) follow a playbook designed to take liquidity from retail traders. If you learn to spot these phases, you can stop trading against smart money and start aligning with it. The three key stages are: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution. 🔹 1. The Accumulation Phase The Accumulation Phase is where smart money builds positions quietly. Price consolidates in a range, creating the illusion of indecision. To the untrained eye, this looks like “choppy sideways action,” but it’s a setup. What happens here? Price ranges sideways. Stop-losses build up below range lows (for bullish traders) and above range highs (for bearish traders). Liquidity pools form on both sides of the consolidation. Think of this phase as the “loading zone.” Institutions want to accumulate without driving price too high too quickly. The range traps traders into thinking the market is stagnant, while in reality, it’s building energy for the next move. 🔹 2. The Manipulation Phase Once enough orders are sitting around the range, smart money springs the trap. A false breakout occurs: If price breaks below the range → it triggers stop-losses of longs and tempts new shorts to enter. If price breaks above the range → it traps shorts and invites fresh longs to jump in. This is where retail traders get shaken out. The breakout looks convincing, but it’s engineered to harvest liquidity. Why does this happen? Markets need liquidity to move. By manipulating price beyond obvious levels, smart money collects the orders they need to fuel the real move. 🔹 3. The Distribution Phase After manipulation, the real direction of the market becomes clear. Smart money now drives price in the intended direction, often opposite to what retail traders expect. If the manipulation was a false downside break, the distribution phase will be a strong bullish rally. If the manipulation was a false upside break, distribution unfolds as a bearish decline. This is where the largest and cleanest moves happen. Retail traders who fell for the trap are either stopped out or forced to chase the market at worse prices, fueling the move further. 🎯 Why Understanding These Phases Matters Most traders lose because they trade the manipulation, not the distribution. They see a breakout and jump in exactly when smart money is unloading positions. If you want to flip the script: Identify Accumulation: Watch for tight ranges where liquidity builds. Anticipate Manipulation: Don’t get baited by the first breakout. Ride Distribution: Once the trap is set and reversed, that’s your chance to align with the smart money move. Nerdy Thoughts Trading isn’t just about indicators or chart patterns, it’s about psychology and liquidity. The Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution cycle reveals the hidden structure behind price action. Next time you see a range, don’t just ask, “Which way will it break?” Instead, think, “Where is smart money likely to trap the crowd before the real move begins?” That shift in perspective could be the difference between trading against the tide and riding with it. 💡 Nerd Note: If you start spotting these cycles on multiple timeframes, you’ll notice how fractal the market really is, the same phases repeat inside bigger phases. The market is a story of traps within traps, and your job as a trader is to read the script, not fall for it. put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
market memory, the many faces of support and resistance.Every trader is introduced to support and resistance (S&R) early on. At first, it looks simple: support is where price stops falling, and resistance is where price stops rising. But the more screen time you log, the clearer it becomes that this tool is not just a “line on the chart.” It comes and is taught in many forms: sometimes sharp and obvious, other times hidden and subtle. The challenge for traders is to recognize which form the market is respecting at any given moment. Let’s go deeper into the different types of support and resistance, how they work, and why they matter. but first there is one golden rule of support and resistance, past support turns into resistance and vice versa, try to look closely at the chart examples i will present and watch how price reacts to the S&R zones and levels, and how this plays out... 1. Horizontal Support and Resistance – Market Memory in its Purest Form The most classic form of S&R is drawn horizontally at prior swing highs and lows. Price touches a level multiple times, and traders begin to see it as significant. Why it works: Markets are driven by collective memory. If price was rejected at 1.1000 three times before, traders naturally hesitate around that level again. Buy orders cluster below old lows, and sell orders cluster near old highs. How to trade: Bounce trade: Wait for price to retest the zone; enter on confirmation (pin bar, engulfing bar, volume spike). Place stop beyond the opposite edge of the zone or beyond the reaction candle wick. Break & retest: When a level breaks with conviction, wait for price to retest it from the other side. That retest becomes a new entry with confluence (volume, SMA, trendline). Use RR (reward:risk) based on the zone width. Don’t expect perfect fills — treat zones as areas. Pitfalls & pro tips: Fakeouts are common: institutional players sweep stops to gather liquidity. Expect occasional whipsaws. Vertical significance matters: daily/weekly horizontals are more reliable. Volume or momentum at the reaction adds conviction. A horizontal with no volume is weaker. chart example : the chart above is represented by candlesticks and for beginner traders it might be hard to spot the support and resistance levels from that chart but one hack is to use the line chart because the line chart shows only the closing price and candlestick shows extreme highs and lows that can be misleading. the chart below represents the same chart above but as a line chart. you want to plot your s&r levels around levels where price is making peaks and valleys like i have highlighted in the chart when you turn your chart type back to candlesticks after plotting on the line chart you are able to clearly see the levels.. on the recent above chart i have shown the resistance price reactions (support holding up) below is the same chart representing support another example is the golden rule i mentioned above being in play, here previous resistance later holds up as support chart example 2: highs and lows this shows how previous day high of day 1 acts as resistance on day 2 2. Trendline Support and Resistance – Dynamic Barriers in Motion Unlike horizontals, trendlines are angled. By connecting higher lows in an uptrend or lower highs in a downtrend, you create a slope the market respects. Why it works: In trending markets, buyers and sellers don’t step in at fixed prices—they react to rhythm. Trendlines capture that rhythm and act as visual guides for momentum. The nuance: Trendlines are highly subjective. Two traders may draw slightly different lines, and both might be “right.” The key is consistency—decide whether you draw them on candle bodies or wicks and stick to it. How to trade: Lean with the trend: buy touches of ascending trendline with tight confirmation. Channel trades: buy near lower band, target midline or upper band; sell vice versa. Breaks: a decisive break of a trendline with retest is often a momentum shift; trade the retest for continuation in the new direction. Pitfalls & pro tips: Lines are subjective — treat trendlines as a tool, not gospel. Re-draw only on new confirmed swings; avoid redrawing every candle. Combine with volume, moving averages or structure breaks for stronger signals. chart example : 4. Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions – Ratios of Market Psychology Fibonacci levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, etc.) are not magical numbers; they are psychological checkpoints where traders expect pullbacks. Why it works: Fib levels are used globally, and like MAs, they become self-fulfilling. Many institutional algos also use ratios in trade planning, reinforcing their influence. How to identify: Choose structural swings—the most recent meaningful high and low. Treat levels as zones, not exact lines. Prefer Fib confluence: a Fib level that overlaps a horizontal, MA, or trendline is far more actionable. How to trade: Retracement entries: watch for price to pull into a Fib zone and show price-action confirmation (pin, absorbtion, heavy volume). Extensions as targets: use 127%/161.8% as extension targets once trend resumes. Combine with timeframe analysis: a 61.8% on the daily aligned with a weekly level is strong. Pitfalls & pro tips: Picking the wrong swing yields worthless Fib levels—choose structural points. Never trade Fib in isolation. It’s a confluence tool, not a standalone system. chart example identify high and low, because price was trading to the downside i will draw my fib levels from the high to the low i did not add the other fib levels because the chart did not look clear and only highlighted the significant level that price reacted to which is the 38.2% fib level. 3. Supply and Demand Zones – Where Imbalance Rules Supply and demand trading zooms out from single lines to zones. A sudden rally from a base suggests excess demand, while a sharp drop suggests excess supply. Why it works: Big players (banks, funds) often leave unfilled orders in these zones. When price returns, those orders trigger, causing strong reactions. Look for sharp moves with little overlap (big green/red candles leaving a base). Identify the base (consolidation) before the move and mark the zone from the high to the low of that base. Strong zones have speed and size in the move away (single big candle or sequence with increasing momentum). How to trade: Wait for retest: enter when price returns to the zone and shows absorption/buying interest. Use limit entries at the edge of the zone and stop beyond the zone’s opposite edge. Size position according to zone width — wide zones → larger stop → smaller position. Pitfalls & pro tips: Zones can be wide and ambiguous; tighten criteria by requiring a clean move away. Supply/Demand pairs well with orderflow or volume profile for institutional confirmation. chart example rally base rally, CP (continuation pattern) - demand chart 2 rally base drop - supply (PEAK) 4. Psychological and Round Numbers – Human Bias on the Chart Markets are human-driven, and humans love round numbers. EUR/USD at 1.2000, gold at $2000, Dow at 40,000—these levels attract attention. Why it works: Traders place stop-losses, take-profits, and pending orders around round figures. Liquidity clusters here, making them magnets for price. Round numbers are less about “holding” price and more about being zones where reactions happen. Price often overshoots before reversing, because stop-hunts occur just beyond these figures. How to identify: These are obvious: whole figures, halves, quarters (1.2000, 1.2500, 1.5000). Watch the tighter structural closeness: a round number that sits exactly on a daily swing is stronger. How to trade: Fade or follow: some traders fade the hesitation around a round number (fade the hesitation wick), others ride through on breakout if momentum is strong. Use round numbers as confluence, pair them with horizontal, Fib, or MA for stronger setups. Pitfalls & pro tips: Round numbers attract stop clusters; expect overshoots. Don’t assume a clean bounce every time. Big figures on high-liquidity pairs (EUR/USD) behave differently from lower-liquidity assets. chart example : resistance price : 3,700.000 support price : 3,680.000 Liquidity Pools – Advanced Market Microstructure liquidity pools to me are not levels but zones on a price chart where a large volume of pending buy stop-loss orders and sell stop-loss orders have accumulated. i identify them by connecting highs and lows / significant levels that are close together but not close to be connected by a singular line. Why it works: Institutions need liquidity to fill massive orders. They manipulate price into zones where retail traders’ stops sit. Once liquidity is captured, the real move begins. The nuance: Order blocks and liquidity pools require skill to read. They are not always obvious and can trap new traders who misinterpret them. Pitfalls & pro tips: This discipline is subtle; misreading an order block is common. Backtest and annotate many examples. chart example : The Bigger Picture – One Concept, Many Faces Support and resistance is not one tool, it is a family of tools. From clean horizontals to hidden liquidity pools, each type reflects a different aspect of market psychology. The real skill is not memorizing them all, but asking: Which type of support or resistance is the market respecting right now? When you start seeing markets this way, S&R stops being “lines on a chart” and becomes a living, breathing map of trader behavior. put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by currencynerd
superstition meets charts + free Fibonacci day trading strategymagic arts of finance The financial markets are often portrayed as cold, logical, and ruthlessly efficient. But let’s be honest sometimes they feel more like a scene out of a fantasy novel than a spreadsheet. Traders have long whispered about strange patterns, uncanny coincidences, and borderline mystical forces shaping price action. here as some of which i have come across : 🌕 Moon Phases and Market Moves ( sentiment ) It may sound crazy, but research papers and trader folklore alike suggest that full moons and new moons can influence investor sentiment. Some studies claim risk appetite increases around new moons, while full moons see investors turn cautious. Are we ruled by lunar cycles—or are we just night-trading zombies looking for meaning in the stars? 📊 Chart idea: Overlay the S&P 500 or Bitcoin with full moon/new moon markers—watch how eerily often turning points cluster around them. 🍂 The September Effect Statistically, September has been the worst month for equities for over 100 years. No one knows why maybe it’s tax adjustments, portfolio rebalancing, or just collective fear. Some traders avoid opening new positions in September altogether, calling it the “Market’s Bermuda Triangle.” chart above shows average monthly returns of U.S stocks and September being the worst performing month.. i recently did a publication on it : 🧙 The Magic of Numbers Ever heard of the “Rule of 7,” “Golden Ratios,” or Fibonacci retracements? These mystical-sounding formulas often align eerily well with market moves. Whether it’s real order-flow dynamics or just collective belief making it true, traders treat these numbers like sacred spells. Markets love Fibonacci retracements and extensions. Whether it’s 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%, prices bounce and stall around these “magic ratios.” Do traders actually create the self-fulfilling prophecy by believing in it? Or is math really the language of the market gods? on the above chart image of CADCHF, i highlighted the trading day of 03 september 2025 and i took fib retracement from high to low of the day to give following day pivot points or important levels, see how price reacts on the 0.786 or 78.6% making the start of the most significant move for the current day from the fib level and the other notice the reaction on 0.618 or 61.8% is it perfect science or market voodoo? example 2 : bitcoin take the chart above: price climbed, touched the 23.6% retracement (the so-called 0.236 spell), and then began its sharp descent. To the uninitiated, this looks like coincidence. To Fibonacci devotees, it’s evidence that markets bend to the rhythm of sacred ratios. 23.6% → A quick rejection zone, where trend reversals often begin. 38.2% & 50% → Balance points, tested like checkpoints before continuation. 🍀 Lucky & Cursed Superstitions Some of the strangest trading floor beliefs include: 🔮 The Friday Curse Many traders avoid holding large positions over the weekend, especially in volatile markets like crypto or FX. The logic: markets can gap when they reopen on Monday due to news or events that happen while markets are closed. Over time, this caution has morphed into a superstition “bad things happen to open trades on Fridays.” Even if nothing mystical is going on, enough people believe it, so Friday liquidity sometimes dries up faster. 🙊 “Never Say Crash” Similar to how actors won’t say “Macbeth” in a theater, traders avoid saying “crash” out loud, especially in bullish markets. The superstition is that simply naming the disaster can “manifest” it. While rational minds know it’s just psychology, there is a kernel of truth: negative language can amplify fear and spread panic among traders effectively becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. 🚫 Ticker Taboos Certain tickers or assets get reputations as cursed—think of infamous stocks that destroyed portfolios (Lehman Brothers in 2008, or meme stocks that wiped out retail traders). Some traders flat-out refuse to touch those names again, no matter how good the setup looks. It’s not unlike avoiding a blackjack table after losing your shirt there once it’s part memory, part superstition. 🧦 Trading Socks & Charms On trading floors (and now in home offices), you’ll find lucky ties, socks, pens, or even figurines. Traders treat them like talismans to bring good fortune during the session. Statistically, socks don’t move markets but the ritual helps build confidence, and psychology is half the battle in trading. (If you’ve ever put on your “interview shirt” before a big meeting, you understand the vibe.) 🏈 The Super Bowl Indicator This classic Wall Street superstition claims: NFC team wins → Stocks rise. AFC team wins → Stocks fall. It started because early correlations were spooky-accurate (like 90%+ for several decades). Of course, correlation is not causation, and the pattern eventually broke. Still, it gets dusted off every February as a lighthearted market omen. ☿️ Mercury Retrograde Astrology believers say Mercury retrograde messes with communication, travel, and technology. In trading, this gets blamed for weird market moves, glitches, or periods of irrational volatility. While pros don’t build strategies around star charts, it highlights an important truth: when markets move strangely and we can’t explain it, humans love to assign cosmic causes. which superstitions have you heard or come across? These superstitions blend psychology, history, and trader folklore. Even if they aren’t “real,” they influence behaviour and behaviour is what moves markets. put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by currencynerd
2
september effect: why markets seem to catch a cold every fall📉 The September Effect chart example: average monthly returns of the S&P500 since 1928 Every year, as summer ends and September rolls in, traders brace themselves. Why? Because the “September Effect” is notorious for turning even the steadiest markets into a rollercoaster. Understanding this seasonal quirk can make the difference between a smooth ride and a portfolio wipeout. 📊 What Is the September Effect? The September Effect is the observed tendency of financial markets to underperform during September. Historically, it’s one of the worst months for equities, currencies, and even commodities. Some reasons behind it: Institutional Moves: Big players return from summer breaks, recalibrating portfolios. Expect sudden spikes in activity and volatility. Quarter-End Adjustments: September marks the end of Q3, often triggering rebalancing or profit-taking. Economic Releases: Important data (jobs, inflation, trade figures) often drop in September, leading to sharp market reactions. 🌍 How It Hits Global Markets The effect isn’t just local—it ripples across the globe: Equities: Indices like the S&P 500 and FTSE historically trend lower more often in September than other months. Currencies: Pairs involving USD, EUR, and JPY can swing wildly as traders reposition ahead of data releases. Commodities: Gold, oil, and other commodities may see sudden shifts based on sentiment, hedging, or macroeconomic expectations. 🔍 Navigating September Without Panic You don’t have to fear September—it just requires smarter strategies: Tight Risk Management: Stop-losses, hedging, and diversification are your best friends. Stay Updated: Economic reports, geopolitical events, and central bank actions can set the tone. Chart Smarts: Technical patterns and indicators can guide better entries and exits amid the volatility. above chart shows the historical average of major indicies.. The Takeaway The September Effect is real, but it’s not a doom prophecy. Recognizing it allows traders to plan, protect, and even profit from seasonal swings. The markets may shiver in September—but with the right strategy, your portfolio doesn’t have to. put together by : @currencynerd
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
8
separating Myth from MethodTrendlines: The Most Misused Tool in Trading If I had a pip for every time a trader got faked out by a “trendline breakout,” I’d probably have more profits than most retail traders combined. Trendlines are one of the simplest, oldest, and most powerful tools in technical analysis yet they’re also one of the most misused. Most traders rely on what they’ve been taught in books, courses, or quick YouTube tutorials without putting in the hours of backtesting and screen time. And as every trader eventually learns: theory is a different game than practice. A book may say: Buy the breakout of a bearish trendline. But in practice? Price fakes out, you get stopped, and frustration builds. Or: Sell at the touch of a bearish trendline. Then price rallies and breaks the line. Again, stopped out. The problem? Markets love to trap traders here. False breakouts, wicks, and algo-driven liquidity hunts chew up traders who rely only on “trendline piercing.” If that’s your main strategy, you’re not trading the market, the market is trading you. But here’s the truth: trendlines aren’t the problem. The way traders use them is. This doesn’t mean the trendline is invalid. It means the application is shallow. For me, trendlines are non-negotiable when analysing. But I don’t take trades just because of a line. I use them in specific, tested ways that give structure to my trading and reduce false signals. Here are the two core methods I use trendlines in my trading: 1. Trendlines as a Measure of Momentum Momentum is the speed of price, not just the price itself. And trendlines can act as leading indicators of momentum shifts. For example: A break of a bullish trendline doesn’t instantly mean “sell.” It means momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. That’s my cue to look for sell setups that align with my strategy. As long as price respects a bullish trendline, it signals buyers are in control, and I look for buy setups. Vice versa for bearish lines. Think of trendline breaks not as signals but as context for setups. They tell you where the wind is blowing, not when to set sail. For me, a trendline break means nothing unless a full OHCL candle (Open, High, Close, Low) forms entirely above or below the line. Why? Because a wick through a trendline is just noise, it’s the market testing liquidity, not shifting momentum. A confirmed close beyond the trendline signals that the crowd has moved, and the trend’s character is changing. This approach drastically reduces false signals. Instead of jumping at the first poke through the line, I wait for commitment. Think of it like waiting for the market to sign the contract rather than just flirt with the idea. chart example : 2. Trendlines as Dynamic Support & Resistance The second use is less about breakouts and more about reaction levels. A clean, well-respected trendline acts like a dynamic S/R zone, guiding how price reacts when tested. In uptrends, I look for bounces off the rising trendline as opportunities to join the momentum. In downtrends, I treat the falling trendline as overhead resistance a zone to fade rallies or time entries. What makes trendlines powerful here is context: they’re not static like horizontal levels but move with the market’s rhythm adapting as price makes new highs or lows. When combined with volume, candlestick structure, or confluence with horizontals, they create highly reliable zones. Yes, false breaks happen but this is where order flow, confluence, and top-down analysis come in. The more aligned factors you stack with a trendline, the higher the probability of a valid setup. chart example : the other great thing about this is that the law for support and resistance also applies here where previous support acts as resistance and vice versa chart example : nerdy conclusion : trendlines alone won’t make you money. They aren’t buy or sell signals by themselves. But used correctly, they’re an incredibly powerful map of momentum and dynamic structure. Most importantly, don’t throw them out just because a few breakouts failed. That’s not the trendline’s fault, it’s the method. The smarter nerdy approach is: Wait for full OHCL confirmation beyond the line before calling it a momentum shift. Use trendlines as dynamic support/resistance to trade with structure, not noise. put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd courtesy of : @TradingView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
from Rice to Robots, evolution of TA The History and Origin of Technical Analysis Every chart we study today. Every candlestick, moving average, or RSI indicator is built on centuries of market wisdom. While many believe technical analysis began with Charles Dow in the 1800s, its origins reach much further back, to Amsterdam’s bustling spice markets in the 1600s and Japan’s rice exchanges in the 1700s. Let’s take a journey through time and see how technical analysis evolved into the powerful tool traders and investors use today. 17th Century: The First Signs of Charting 1. Dutch East India Company Traders (1602) The Dutch East India Company, established in Amsterdam in 1602, became the first publicly traded company. Its shares were bought and sold on the world’s first stock exchange, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. Early traders began tracking price fluctuations in simple graphical forms — the very first steps toward technical analysis. 2. Joseph de la Vega (1650–1692) A Spanish diamond merchant and philosopher, Joseph de la Vega, authored Confusión de Confusiones (1688), the earliest known book on stock markets. He described investor behavior, speculative patterns, and even outlined concepts resembling modern puts, calls, and pools. His insights captured both the psychology of markets and the primitive beginnings of technical analysis. 18th Century: Japan’s Candlestick Revolution Homma Munehisa (1724–1803) In Osaka’s Dōjima Rice Exchange, Japanese rice merchant Homma Munehisa created what remains one of the most widely used charting methods in history: the Japanese Candlestick (then called Sakata Charts). His book The Fountain of Gold – The Three Monkey Record of Money detailed not only price charts but also market psychology, emotions, and crowd behavior. Today, candlestick patterns remain a cornerstone of technical analysis worldwide. Late 19th & Early 20th Century: The Modern Foundations Charles Dow (1851–1902) Often called the father of modern technical analysis, Charles Dow co-founded Dow Jones & Company and The Wall Street Journal in 1889. His market observations led to: The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Transportation Average The Dow Theory, which identified three types of trends: primary, secondary, and minor. Dow believed markets reflect the overall health of the economy, and his work inspired generations of analysts, including William Hamilton, Robert Rhea, George Schaefer, and Richard Russell. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948) Building on Dow’s ideas, Elliott studied 75 years of stock market data and developed the Elliott Wave Theory, arguing that markets move in recurring wave patterns driven by crowd psychology. In March 1935, he famously predicted a market bottom and the Dow Jones indeed hit its lowest point the following day, cementing his theory’s credibility. 20th Century: The Rise of Indicators The computer era supercharged technical analysis. Mathematically driven technical indicators were developed to analyze price, volume, and momentum on a scale that manual charting could never achieve. Example: RSI (Relative Strength Index) Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. in 1978, RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes on a scale of 0–100. Above 70 = Overbought (potential sell signal) Below 30 = Oversold (potential buy signal) Other popular indicators soon followed, such as Moving Averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands, giving traders an expanding toolbox to forecast market movements. 21st Century: From Charts to Algorithms and AI Today, technical analysis has evolved far beyond hand-drawn charts: Algorithmic Trading: Automated systems use indicators and strategies to execute trades at lightning speed. AI Trading Bots: Artificial intelligence combines both technical and fundamental analysis, processing massive datasets to generate signals and even execute trades. Platforms like TradingView: Empower traders worldwide to build custom indicators, test strategies and share insights, democratizing access to advanced market tools. nerdy thoughts From Amsterdam’s first stock traders to Osaka’s candlestick pioneers, from Charles Dow’s theories to AI-powered trading bots, technical analysis has always been about one thing: decoding price to understand human behavior in markets. It’s a discipline born from centuries of observation, innovation, and adaptation, one that continues to evolve every day. “Life is a moving, breathing thing. We have to be willing to constantly evolve. Perfection is constant transformation.” put together by: Pako Phutietsile ( @currencynerd ) courtesy of : @TradingView this is inspired by a publication i once posted this is the revamped edition...
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by currencynerd
1,064-Day Crypto Cycle coming.. Oct 06 2025Are We Nearing a Macro Turning Point? Markets may look chaotic on the surface, but zoom out far enough and a rhythm begins to emerge. For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, one of the most compelling patterns traders track is the 1,064-day cycle, a rough cadence of boom and bust that has repeated across multiple market eras. With October 2025 approaching, many analysts are asking: Is another turning point on the horizon? Why 1,064 Days? The number isn’t arbitrary. Crypto markets, especially Bitcoin, have displayed a recurring rhythm tied loosely to halvings, liquidity cycles, and investor psychology. Roughly every 1,064 days (about 2.9 years), Bitcoin seems to align with a macro peak or trough. Cycle 1 (2011–2014): BTC surged from a few dollars to over $1,000 before collapsing in late 2013. Cycle 2 (2014–2017): The next expansion drove prices to $20,000 by December 2017 — almost exactly 1,064 days later. Cycle 3 (2018–2021): From the 2018 bear bottom, Bitcoin reached $69,000 in November 2021 — again within the 1,064-day window. The cycle doesn’t work like clockwork, but the cadence is eerily consistent, suggesting that investor flows, halvings, and liquidity injections may move in long, repeating arcs. Mapping Today’s Position If we anchor the most recent cycle to the November 2021 peak, the 1,064-day marker points us toward October 2025. This timeline aligns uncomfortably well with two forces: Halving Lag Effect – Historically, the real bull accelerations occur 12–18 months after a halving event (the next one being April 2024). That would put late 2025 squarely in the “froth” zone. Liquidity Rotation – Global central banks are currently balancing inflation with growth concerns. By late 2025, markets may expect easing, a perfect storm for risk-on assets like crypto. What the Charts Suggest? Looking at long-term Bitcoin charts, cycle expansions follow a similar arc: A steep bull phase fueled by retail and institutional adoption. A distribution top marked by extreme leverage, retail euphoria, and inflows into speculative altcoins. A macro correction that wipes out 70–85% of value before a new base forms. If history rhymes, the 2025 cycle top could be the most significant yet, not just in terms of price, but in market maturity. Institutional ETFs, regulatory frameworks, and global adoption add layers of credibility that were absent in past cycles. Why Traders Should Care Cycle mapping is not about prediction with surgical precision, it’s about framing risk and opportunity. For long-term investors: Understanding that late 2025 could coincide with a major top helps avoid FOMO and plan exits with discipline. For swing traders: These cycles offer context for positioning. Bull legs tend to accelerate in the 6–12 months before the cycle peak. For macro thinkers: If crypto follows this cycle, it could front-run global liquidity shifts, making it a leading indicator for risk appetite. nerdy thoughts : The Clock Is Ticking The 1,064-day cycle isn’t prophecy. But its consistency across three full eras of crypto history makes it hard to dismiss. As October 2025 approaches, traders would do well to watch for echoes of past patterns: accelerating inflows, leverage buildup, and sentiment peaking. Because in crypto, time doesn’t just pass, it compounds into cycles. And those cycles often whisper what comes next. put together by: @currencynerd courtesy of : @TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
wall Street has set camp on Satoshi's backyard...Bitcoin didn’t just wake up and choose violence. It chose velocity. As BTC blasts through the six-figure ceiling and fiddles $120k with laser precision, everyone’s pointing to “the halving” like it’s some magical switch. But let's be real, Bitcoin bull runs don’t run on fairy dust and hope. They run on liquidity, macro dislocations, structural demand shifts, and a pinch of regulatory chaos. Here’s the nerdy breakdown of what’s really driving the Bitcoin Rocketship (and why this one’s different): 1. The Halving Effect (Not Just the Halving) Yes, the April 2024 halving slashed miner rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. But this time, the reflexivity is louder. Miners now have to sell less, and buyers (especially ETFs) have to beg for more. Miners = Reduced Sell Pressure. ETFs = Constant Buy Pressure. That’s a one-way order book squeeze. Simple math, but powerful dynamics. 2. ETF Flows: The "Spot" That Launched a Thousand Rallies When the SEC finally gave the green light to Bitcoin spot ETFs, TradFi didn’t walk in—they stormed in. Think BlackRock, Fidelity, and friends becoming daily buyers. It's not retail FOMO anymore, it's Wall Street with billions in dry powder doing dollar-cost averaging with institutional consistency. 🧠 Nerd Note: The top 5 U.S. spot ETFs alone are now hoarding more BTC than MicroStrategy. 3. Dollar Liquidity is Leaking Again Despite Fed jawboning, real rates are still under pressure and global liquidity is quietly creeping back. Look at the TGA drawdowns, reverse repo usage, and China’s stealth QE. Bitcoin, being the apex predator of liquidity, smells it from a mile away. “In a world flooded with fiat, Bitcoin doesn’t float. It flies.” 4. Sovereigns Are Quietly Watching El Salvador lit the match. Now, Argentina, Turkey, and even Gulf countries are tiptoeing toward a Bitcoin pivot, hedging USD exposure without broadcasting it to CNN. Central banks don’t need to love BTC to stack it. They just need to fear the dollar system enough. 5. Scarcity Narrative Goes 3D With 99% of BTC supply already mined and over 70% HODLed for over 6 months, every new buyer is bidding for a smaller slice of the pie. ETFs and institutions are trying to drink from a faucet that only drips. This is not a market with elastic supply. This is financial physics with a scarcity twist. 6. Market Microstructure is Fragile AF Order books are thin. Real liquidity is fragmented. And the sell-side has PTSD from getting blown out at $70k. This creates a “skateboard-on-a-freeway” scenario, when a few billion in inflows hit, prices don’t just rise. They gap. Nerdy Bonus: The Memecoin Effect (No, Really) The memecoin mania on Solana, Base, and Ethereum has been injecting dopamine into degens—and their profits are increasingly flowing into the OG digital gold. It’s the 2021 cycle all over again, just with more liquidity bridges and fewer inhibitions. Nerdy Insight: The Bull Run Has Layers What’s driving BTC to $120,000 isn’t a single headline. It’s a stacked convergence of macro, structure, psychology, and coded scarcity. Bitcoin isn’t “going up” just because of hope or halving hype. It’s going up because it’s the cleanest asset in a dirty system, and now both retail and institutions agree. Still shorting? That’s not “fading the crowd.” That’s fighting thermodynamics. Stay nerdy, stay sharp. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
watch the laws, not just the charts.stablecoins were once the rebels of finance—anchored to fiat yet untethered from traditional banking laws, but the tides are turning. Across major economies, lawmakers are drawing up legal frameworks that place stablecoins inside the banking sector rather than outside of it. This shift could be the most pivotal regulatory development since Bitcoin was born. But what does this really mean for traders, investors, and markets? In this @TradingView blog we’ll unpack the new laws on stablecoins entering the banking realm, and what their ripple effect might look like, using past regulatory shifts as a lens to foresee market behavior. 🧾 Section 1: What the New Stablecoin Laws Say Many regions—especially the EU, UK, Japan, and the US—are moving toward a model where stablecoin issuers must register as banks or hold full banking licenses, or at minimum, comply with banking-like oversight. Key pillars of these laws include: Full reserve requirements (1:1 backing in liquid assets) Audited transparency on reserves and redemptions KYC/AML compliance for users and issuers Supervision by central banks or financial regulators In the US, the House Financial Services Committee recently advanced a bill that would make the Fed the ultimate overseer of dollar-backed stablecoins. In the EU, MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) requires issuers of e-money tokens to be regulated financial institutions. Japan now allows banks and trust companies to issue stablecoins under strict regulations. 💥 Section 2: Why This Is a Big Deal Bringing stablecoins into the banking system could change how liquidity flows, how DeFi operates, and how capital moves across borders. Potential market impacts: Increased trust = more institutional money entering stablecoins and crypto markets. DeFi restrictions = protocols may face scrutiny if they allow unverified stablecoin usage. Flight from algorithmic or offshore stables to regulated, bank-issued stablecoins (e.g., USDC, PYUSD). On-chain surveillance increases, potentially limiting pseudonymous finance. Think of it as crypto’s "Too Big To Ignore" moment—where stablecoins become infrastructure, not outlaws. 📉 Section 3: Past Laws That Shaped Crypto Markets Let’s examine how previous regulations have affected crypto markets—offering clues about what to expect. 🧱 1. China’s Crypto Ban (2017–2021) Kicked off a massive market crash in 2018. Pushed mining and trading activity overseas, especially to the US and Southeast Asia. Resulted in more global decentralization, ironically strengthening Bitcoin’s resilience. 🪙 2. SEC Lawsuits Against XRP & ICO Projects Ripple’s XRP lawsuit caused delistings and volatility. Set a precedent for how tokens are treated under securities law. Resulted in more structured token launches (via SAFEs, Reg D, etc.). 🧮 3. MiCA Regulation in Europe (2023 Onward) Provided regulatory clarity, prompting institutions to engage more with regulated entities. Boosted legitimacy of Euro-backed stablecoins like EURS and Circle’s Euro Coin. Sparked a race among exchanges to gain EU registration (e.g., Binance France, Coinbase Ireland). Each of these regulatory waves caused temporary volatility, followed by long-term growth—as clarity invited capital. 📊 Section 4: The Possible Scenarios for the Market Here’s how things might play out as stablecoin laws become mainstream: Golden Path-Regulated stablecoins coexist with DeFi; innovation meets compliance - Bullish for crypto adoption and capital inflows. Walled Garden-Only bank-issued stablecoins are allowed; DeFi stifled -Neutral or bearish short-term, bullish long-term. Backlash-Overregulation pushes stables offshore or into non-compliant zones - Bearish, liquidity fragmentation returns. 🔍 Nerdy Conclusion: Stablecoins are no longer just tools for traders—they’re becoming the backbone of digital finance. Their formal entrance into banking law marks a turning point that traders must understand. While regulation has historically caused short-term fear, it often leads to long-term maturity in crypto markets. The stablecoin laws now in motion could unlock the next chapter of institutional adoption, cross-border finance, and perhaps, the integration of crypto into the real-world economy at scale. 💡 Nerdy Thought: When a technology becomes systemically important, it stops being ignored—it gets integrated. Stablecoins have reached that level. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Price action is the vehicle—but these charts show the road aheadIn the world of trading, technical analysis often gets the spotlight—candlesticks, moving averages, and indicators. But beneath every price movement lies a deeper current: macroeconomic forces. These forces shape the environment in which all trades happen. Great traders don’t just react to price—they understand the context behind it. That context is found in macro charts: the financial “weather maps” of markets. These charts reveal whether capital is flowing toward risk or safety, whether inflation is heating up or cooling down, and whether liquidity is expanding or shrinking. In this post, we’ll explore 10 macro charts that can elevate your edge, backed by proven examples of how they’ve helped traders stay on the right side of the market. These aren't just charts—they’re market truths in visual form. 1️⃣ DXY – U.S. Dollar Index Why it matters: The U.S. dollar affects everything: commodities, stocks, global trade, and especially forex. The DXY measures its strength against major currencies. 📉 Chart Reference: In 2022, DXY surged past 110 due to aggressive Fed rate hikes. This crushed EURUSD, pressured gold, and triggered a global risk-off move. Traders who tracked DXY rode USD strength across the board. 💡 Use it to: Confirm trends in FX and commodities. Strong DXY = bearish pressure on gold and risk assets. 2️⃣ US10Y – 10-Year Treasury Yield Why it matters: This is the benchmark for interest rates and inflation expectations. It guides borrowing costs, equity valuations, and safe-haven flows. 📉 Chart Reference: In 2023, the 10Y spiked from 3.5% to nearly 5%, leading to weakness in growth stocks and boosting USD/JPY. Bond traders saw it first—equities followed. 💡 Use it to: Anticipate moves in growth vs. value stocks, and confirm macro themes like inflation or deflation. 3️⃣ Fed Dot Plot Why it matters: This is the Fed’s forward guidance in visual form. Each dot shows where a policymaker expects interest rates to be in the future. 📉 Chart Reference: In Dec 2021, the dot plot signaled a faster pace of hikes than the market expected. Those who caught the shift front-ran the USD rally and equity correction in early 2022. 💡 Use it to: Predict future rate policy and align your macro bias with the Fed's path. 4️⃣ M2 Money Supply (US) Why it matters: This chart tracks the amount of money in the system. More liquidity = fuel for risk. Less = tightening conditions. 📉 Chart Reference: After COVID hit, M2 exploded, leading to a major bull run in stocks and crypto. When M2 began contracting in 2022, asset prices peaked and reversed. 💡 Use it to: Gauge macro liquidity conditions. Expansion is bullish; contraction is dangerous. 5️⃣ Copper/Gold Ratio Why it matters: Copper is a growth metal; gold is a fear hedge. Their ratio acts as a risk-on/risk-off indicator. 📉 Chart Reference: In 2021, the copper/gold ratio surged—signaling growth and optimism. This preceded strong gains in cyclical equities and commodity currencies like AUD and CAD. 💡 Use it to: Confirm risk sentiment and lead equity or FX trends. 6️⃣ VIX – Volatility Index Why it matters: VIX tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500. It's often called the "fear index." 📉Chart Reference : In March 2020, VIX spiked to nearly 90 as COVID panic set in. This extreme fear was followed by one of the greatest buying opportunities of the decade. 💡 Use it to: Time entries and exits. High VIX = fear = possible reversal. Low VIX = complacency = caution. 7️⃣ Real Yields (10Y TIPS - CPI) Why it matters: Shows the inflation-adjusted return on bonds. Real yields affect gold, tech, and risk appetite. 📉Chart Reference : In 2022, real yields went from deeply negative to positive—crushing gold and high-growth stocks. 💡 Use it to: Confirm direction in gold, NASDAQ, and broad macro trends. 8️⃣ Oil Prices (WTI or Brent) Why it matters: Oil is both a growth and inflation input. Rising prices mean higher costs and often precede policy tightening. 📉Chart Reference : Oil’s rally in early 2022 foreshadowed CPI spikes and led central banks to turn hawkish. Traders who tracked it saw inflation risks building early. 💡 Use it to: Forecast inflation, assess energy-related equities, and understand global demand. 9️⃣ Global PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) Why it matters: Leading indicator of economic health. PMIs above 50 = expansion. Below 50 = contraction. 📉 Chart Reference: In 2023, China’s PMI consistently printed below 50—signaling manufacturing weakness and global demand concerns. This helped traders avoid overexposure to emerging markets. 💡 Use it to: Gauge growth momentum globally and regionally. 🔟 SPX vs. Equal-Weighted SPX (Breadth Divergence) Why it matters: Shows whether the S&P 500 rally is broad-based or just driven by a few megacaps. 📉Chart Reference : In early 2024, the index made new highs—but the equal-weighted version lagged badly. That divergence warned traders of a fragile rally. 💡 Use it to: Detect weakness beneath the surface and avoid false confidence in rallies. 🧠 Nerdy Tip: Macro Is the Invisible Hand These charts don’t give you trade entries—but they give you conviction, timing, and perspective. When you combine macro context with technical setups, you trade in sync with the market’s deeper rhythm. So before you place your next trade, ask yourself: What are yields doing? Is liquidity expanding or drying up? Is risk appetite rising or falling? put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
BTC to run out by year 2140, who is the biggest whale?bitcoin whales are individuals or entities that hold/own the most amount of the digital XAU, to achieve this financial status one has to own at least 1000 BTC, with the coin's supply being infinite to 21 million (also known as HARD CAP), meaning that only 21 million bitcoins can ever be created. it's important to know who the big players are in the market also to keep track of the left supply. one of the important reasons i think why the supply was capped at 21 million was to ensure no risk of inflation even though the Bitcoin creator 'SATOSHI NAKAMOTO' disclosed once that him capping it at 21 million was just an "educated guess" in order to control supply, there is what is called Bitcoin halving which is the process by which the reward for mining BTC by half hence the term halving. the first ever halving was November 28, 2012 this was the start of a historic run of BTC as a deflationary asset and the most recent was this year APRIL 19, with the reward for mining a single block cut from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. this event happens when 210,000 are added to the blockchain. this also reduces the rate at which new coins are created maintaining scarcity which results in an increase in value. with all that said, WH0 OWNS THE MOST BITCOIN? top 5 public cooperation's that hold most Bitcoin * MICROSTRATEGY - U.S company - holds 214,400 est. Value - $13.5B * MARATHON DIGITAL - U.S company - hold 17,631 est. Value - $1.1B * TESLA - U.S company - holds 9,720 est. Value - $600M * HUT 8 - CANADA company - holds 9,109 est. Value - $574.1M * COINBASE - U.S company - holds 9,000 est. Value - $567.2M top 5 countries that hold most Bitcoin * USA - holds 207,189 est. Value - GETTEX:13B * CHINA - holds 194,000 est. Value - $12.2B * UK - holds 61,000 est. Value - $3.8B * GERMANY - holds 50,000 est. Value - $3.1B * UKRAIN - holds 46,351 est. Value - $2.9B top 5 private companies that hold most Bitcoin * Mt. Gox - holds 200,000 est. Value - $12.6B * Block.one - holds 140,000 est. Value - $8.8B * Tether holdings - holds 75,354 est. Value - $4.7B * Xapo Bank - holds 38,931 est. Value - $2.4B * BitMEX - holds 36,794 est. Value - $2.3B then there are other investors that are involved in the BITCOIN market without directly purchasing it but through bitcoin related assets. these are : *Grayscale Bitcoin Trust holds 291,802 est. Value - $18.3B *iShares Bitcoin Trust holds 274,322 est. Value - $17.2B *Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund holds 152,880 est. Value - $9.6B *CoinShares/XBT Provider holds 48,466 est. Value SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B *ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF holds 43,470 est Value - $2.7B top individuals that hold the most BTC. *SATOSHI NAKAMOTO 1.1MILLION BTC *THE WINKLEVOSS TWINS 70,000 BTC *TIM DRAPER 29,500 BTC *MICHAEL SAYLOR 17,732 BTC researched and put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
+180pips up for grabseurusd euro / u.s dollar price found support @ 0.96000 price areas where it made the low of 2022 also having been in an overall downtrend for the year. since gaining some bullish momentum from the support, price made a +14% recovery to current price. price is currently failing to climb higher as it has found some resistance @ 1.00000 price areas, this resistance is of liquidity pool ranging from @ 1.09800 to @ 1.09600. price broke out of bullish parallel channel forming several OHLC candlesticks below it indicating a shift in current market momentum from bullish to bearish. i have a short bias on the major currency pair with targets at psychological level of interest @ 1.04600 SUPPLY AND DEMAND put together by : Pako Phutietsile, Tumelo Mokgosi as @alentrah presented by : @currencynerd courtesy of : @TradingView Believe in yourself! ...
Short
by currencynerd
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