IS $ALPA3 the new Jaguar?BMFBOVESPA:ALPA3 , a market-share leader in Brazil, is facing rising brand and sentiment risk following a controversial TV advertising campaign that triggered a growing online backlash. While the immediate financial impact is limited, viral consumer boycotts typically act with a lag, and the effect is likely to materialize over the next few months through softer demand and deteriorating sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, the stock remains in a long-term downtrend initiated in August 2021. Price action suggests a high probability of a rejection below the 50-day moving average, which would reinforce bearish momentum and signal continuation of the prevailing trend.
Thesis:
Negative sentiment acts as a medium-term catalyst
Lagged impact on sales and expectations
Price likely to remain below the 50-DMA
Trend continuation favors downside positioning
Bias: Bearish
Strategy: Sell rallies below the 50-day moving average / trend-following short
Risk: Rapid sentiment reversal or strong earnings surprise
