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Alrs

Alrosa is the Most Efficient Diamond Mining Company in the WorldWe have already made a note about the diamond mining industry in the World. We will add information to this post and present it as an investment idea for subscribers from Russia There are two main companies in the World diamond mining market: Alrosa (Russia. World market share ~28%) and De Beers (US. World market share ~22%) Even with the dollar below 90 rubles and with sanctions obstacles, it remains profitable At the same time, American De Beers reduced production by 36% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the data of a year ago EBITDA will be negative for the second half of the year in a row If EBITDA is negative, then operating profit is deeply negative. Another company from this sector, Petra Diamonds, is trying to survive in 2025, although only 3 years ago it underwent restructuring and zeroed out its net debt. The rest of the sector is doing even worse Judging by the state of affairs at De Beers, a significant share of the world's capacity is unprofitable at current diamond prices. The main thing is that ALROSA is operationally profitable in the most difficult conditions, unlike its competitors. ALROSA has a very large working capital The basis of working capital is ready-to-sell diamonds ALROSA has already incurred production costs to extract these diamonds from the ground, but has not yet received revenue. ALROSA can get about 25% of its capitalization from working capital in the future by selling off stocks. We indicated earlier in the post why demand for diamonds will return
RUS:ALRSLong
by A3MInvestments
1
ALRS 1D Long Investment Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test + first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit 1/3 - 1 to 2 R/R 1/3 - 1D T2 / 1M T2 1/3 - 1/2 of 1Y Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit 1/3 - 1 to 2 R/R 1/3 - 1D T2 / 1M T2 1/3 - 1/2 of 1Y Monthly CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + volumed Sp + test" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level + manipulation"
RUS:ALRSLong
by MishaSuvorov
ALROSA PJSC $ALRS: CAN IT WEATHER THE STORM?💎 ALROSA PJSC (ALRS.ME): CAN IT WEATHER THE STORM? Russia’s diamond giant, Alrosa, is under pressure from global sanctions and weak demand. Can this dominant player maintain its shine ✨ or will it get buried under geopolitical and market risks? Let's dig in! 👇 1/ Revenue Hits: Alrosa's diamond sales halted in Sept-Oct 2024, reflecting a tough market. This move was part of a strategic response to sluggish demand 📉 and efforts to stabilize earnings. The diamond industry isn't sparkling like it used to. 💎 2/ Market Stabilization Efforts: 🛑 No recent earnings reports were mentioned, but the sales halt highlights how volatile the market has become. Alrosa is bracing for financial pressure while keeping reserves intact for better conditions. Is this a smart move, or just delaying the pain? 🤔 3/ Major Threat: G7 Sanctions ⚠️ The G7 plans to ban Russian diamond imports, a major blow to Alrosa's access to key markets. Sanctions could severely disrupt revenue and global sales channels. 🌍 This geopolitical chess match might redefine the company's future moves. ♟️ 4/ How's Alrosa Valued? 💲 The last known analysis suggested a 25% undervaluation (based on a DCF model in 2019). However, without updated data, it's unclear if this still holds true under current conditions. Alrosa's financial outlook hinges on lifting or navigating around sanctions. 5/ Comparing Alrosa to Peers: Alrosa’s dominance in diamonds is clear, but sector-wide data remains limited. Compared to precious metals miners, Alrosa’s reliance on one commodity increases its risk exposure. Diversifying might be crucial for long-term resilience. 🏗️ 6/ Key Risks to Watch: 🚨 Geopolitical Tensions: Sanctions are the biggest risk threatening Alrosa's market access. Market Demand Slump: Global demand for natural diamonds is weakening as lab-grown diamonds gain popularity. 🧪 Regulatory Risks: Changes to mining laws in Russia could further complicate operations. Currency Volatility: The ruble's instability 💱 may distort reported earnings and profitability. 7/ SWOT Analysis: 🔍 Strengths: ✅ Global leader with significant diamond reserves ✅ State-backed, offering some political protection Weaknesses: ⚠️ Heavy reliance on a struggling market ⚠️ Susceptible to international sanctions 8/ SWOT Continued: Opportunities: 🚀 Recovery potential in the diamond market post-sanctions 🚀 Diversification into other minerals or industries Threats: 🌍 Sanction risks from Western nations 🌍 Rising competition from lab-grown diamonds Alrosa will need bold strategies to capitalize on any opportunities ahead. 9/ Investment Thesis: 💡 Alrosa’s future remains uncertain due to sanctions and weak market conditions. However, significant reserves and state support could provide resilience if market demand recovers. Investors must weigh the high geopolitical risk against potential recovery gains. 10/ What do YOU think? 💬 📈 Bullish: Alrosa can weather this storm. 🔄 Hold: Let’s see how sanctions evolve. 🚫 Bearish: Too risky, no recovery in sight.
RUS:ALRSLong
by DCAChampion
1
ALRS 5M Conservative CounterTrend DayTradeConservative CounterTrend Trade - long impulse + 1/2 correction - SOS level + support level + volumed 2Sp+ Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit slightly above 1 H range Transferrable to Swing after closes test and resumes buying on 1H Transferrable to Investment trade after ends test and resumes buying on 1D 1H CounterTrend "- short impulse + 1/2 correction - unvolumed T1 + support level - volumed 2Sp- + test" Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test" Monthly CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + volumed Sp + test" Yearly trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level + manipulation"
RUS:ALRSLong
by MishaSuvorov