Americold Realty Trust | COLD | Long at $13.28Americold Realty Trust NYSE:COLD
Technical Analysis:
The price is currently touching the top of my "crash" historical simple moving average bands (green lines). This area is often reserved for share accumulation and can signal a bottom. The price, however, may extend to the bottom of "crash" bands which is currently near $11.80. These bands don't always signal a bottom - there is a still a "major crash" zone - but with interest rates likely dropping in the next 1-2 months, REIT's are poised to benefit as money flows into dividend-paying stocks ( NYSE:COLD dividend is just over 6%).
Earnings and Revenue Growth
EPS and revenue growth are expected between 2025 and 2028 (while REITs are rarely high-growth, the future appears relatively good for the company - especially if their debt levels drop)
www.tradingview.com
Health
Debt-to-Equity: 1.29x (not great, but not terrible)
Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: .5 (high risk - likely higher than 50% chance the company could go bankrupt in the next 24 months *if* interest rates don't drop, but ....)
Market Niche
NYSE:COLD operates in a specialized sector with high barriers to entry due to the capital-intensive nature of building and maintaining temperature-controlled facilities.
The company is an esential service - critical for food safety and pharmaceutical integrity, providing stable demand even in economic downturns.
The company's extensive network ( NASDAQ:KHC , NYSE:CAG , NYSE:WMT , etc) and global footprint (facilities in the US, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Europe give it a competitive edge over smaller players.
Insiders
$2 million in recent insider purchases near $17.
openinsider.com
Action
Due to the high likelihood of interest rate lowering and the market niche NYSE:COLD has as a REIT, I am personally going long at $13.28 and will liekly add more share in the $11 range *if* fundamentals improve. Major warning is bankruptcy risk.
Targets in 2028
$15.00 (+12.9%)
$18.60 (+40.1%)
