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AUDUSD

AUDUSD Pressing the Breakdown Zone: Relief Rally or Just a BetteAUDUSD is pushing up into a structure break area after a strong impulsive run, but the way price is reacting here looks more like a corrective squeeze than a clean trend continuation. We’ve got prior support turned resistance, trendline pressure, and a macro backdrop that still doesn’t fully favor sustained AUD strength. From my perspective, this is the kind of spot where you don’t chase green candles — you map the reaction and let the level decide. Either we reclaim and hold above resistance and rotate higher, or this becomes a classic lower-high setup before another leg down. Current Bias Neutral to bearish Short term momentum is up, but location is weak — price is testing a resistance cluster and prior breakdown structure. Unless we get firm acceptance above the resistance band, the bias favors rejection and rotation back toward lower supports. Key Fundamental Drivers US side: US services PMI remains in expansion while inflation risk is still sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious. That keeps USD broadly supported on dips. Fed policy: Restrictive hold, with markets highly sensitive to CPI and labor data. Cuts are expected later, not imminent — USD not structurally weak yet. Australia side: Inflation has shown persistence, but growth is uneven and highly exposed to China demand and global trade flows. China linkage: Mixed China price and activity data limits strong AUD upside follow-through. Rate spread: Still modestly USD-supportive overall. Macro Context Interest rate expectations: Fed on hold at restrictive levels; RBA cautious and data-dependent. Policy spread still leans USD even if no new hikes are expected. Economic growth trends: US growth is slowing but still expanding in services. China growth signals are uneven, which matters directly for AUD. Commodity flows: Oil has seen inventory draws and geopolitical premium, but bulk commodity demand signals are not strongly accelerating — limiting AUD tailwinds. Geopolitical themes: Elevated geopolitical tension supports USD and safe-haven flows at times, which indirectly pressures AUD. Primary Risk to the Trend The main risk to the bearish case is a soft US CPI or weak US labor print that sharply weakens USD and compresses yield expectations. That would support a breakout and hold above resistance instead of rejection. A strong China upside surprise is the secondary upside risk for AUD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US CPI (top tier) US labor market releases China inflation and activity data RBA communication These will drive rate spread expectations and risk sentiment — both critical for AUDUSD. Leader/Lagger Dynamics AUDUSD is generally a risk and China-sensitivity lagger. It tends to follow: Equity indices China data Broad USD direction set by EURUSD and DXY It can influence: NZDUSD (often moves in tandem, AUD usually leads NZD slightly) AUD crosses like AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD It is not the primary USD leader — it reacts more than it drives. Key Levels Support Levels: 0.6910 — near-term structure support (breakdown trigger zone) 0.6765 area — secondary support 0.6595 major lower demand zone Resistance Levels: 0.7020–0.7050 resistance band 0.7090–0.7100 upper resistance zone Stop Loss (SL): Above 0.7100 for bearish setup invalidation Take Profit (TP): TP1: 0.6910 TP2: 0.6765 TP3: 0.6595 (extended move) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints AUDUSD is testing a resistance and structure-break zone, and my bias stays neutral to bearish unless price can firmly hold above the 0.7020–0.7100 band. The macro backdrop still favors USD slightly, with Fed policy restrictive and China-linked growth signals mixed — not ideal conditions for sustained AUD strength. The key invalidation for the bearish view sits above 0.7100, while downside targets line up at 0.6910, then 0.6765 and potentially 0.6595 if risk sentiment weakens. The biggest watchpoint is US CPI — that print likely decides whether this becomes a breakout continuation or a rejection and rollover.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
AUDUSD Weekly Smart Money Map As Liquidity Shifts Control Price AUDUSD has completed a strong impulsive expansion from the accumulation base and is now transitioning into a distribution–rebalancing phase. The current price action shows Smart Money shifting from aggressive markup into controlled liquidity rotation, with price respecting clear premium and discount boundaries rather than trending freely. The prior bullish leg has already achieved its objective: buy-side liquidity above structure highs has been tapped, inefficiencies have been filled, and price is now reacting inside a corrective framework — a classic SMC environment favoring fade-at-zones, not breakout chasing. 🌐 Market Context (This Week’s Hot AUD News) AUDUSD volatility this week is driven by: Ongoing USD sensitivity ahead of US CPI & Fed speakers Shifting risk sentiment tied to equities and China-related data RBA maintaining a cautious stance, limiting AUD upside momentum Market positioning favoring mean reversion and liquidity grabs This macro backdrop supports range-based Smart Money execution, not trend continuation. 📊 Market Structure & Liquidity Read Accumulation → impulsive rally already completed Buy-side liquidity above recent highs partially consumed Price now reacting from premium into a corrective pullback Clear HTF discount zone aligned with prior breakout base Premium zone above acting as a liquidity inducement area Smart Money Logic: Induce at premium → rotate lower to rebalance → decide next expansion. 🔑 Key Weekly Trading Scenarios 🟢 Discount Buy Setup — Smart Money Re-Accumulation BUY AUDUSD: 0.69125 – 0.68970 SL: 0.68356 Confluence: HTF demand & breakout retest zone Sell-side liquidity pool below range lows Corrective leg completion area Execution rule: Only enter after LTF bullish CHoCH / BOS confirmation. Expectation: Reaction from discount → rotation back toward equilibrium / premium. 🔴 Premium Sell Setup — Liquidity Fade SELL AUDUSD: 0.70942 – 0.71150 SL: 0.71480 Confluence: Premium pricing after impulsive move Prior buy-side liquidity zone Potential distribution / exhaustion area Expectation: Rejection from premium → pullback toward discount liquidity. Bias & Execution Notes Weekly bias: Rotational, liquidity-driven Avoid breakout chasing Let price deliver into Smart Money zones Confirmation > anticipation AUDUSD is not trending randomly this week — it’s rotating where liquidity is most vulnerable.
Short
by Wendy_Grace
2
AUD-USD Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! AUDUSD reacts from a well-defined horizontal supply area after a strong bullish push. Rejection and bearish displacement indicate smart money distribution, favoring continuation toward lower liquidity. -------------------- Stop Loss: 0.7024 Take Profit: 0.6984 Entry: 0.7017 Time Frame: 2H -------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
4
Q1 | W6 | Y26 AUDUSD | FRGNT WEEKLY FORECAST | 📅 Q1 | W6 | Y26 📊 AUDUSD | FRGNT WEEKLY FORECAST | 🔍 Analysis Approach I’m applying a developed version of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured focus on: • Identifying Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Using those POIs to define a clear and controlled trading range 📐 • Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) as confirmation ✅ This process keeps me precise, disciplined, and aligned with market narrative, rather than reacting emotionally or chasing price. 💡 My Motto “Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge.” A positive risk-to-reward ratio, combined with a high-probability execution model, is the backbone of any sustainable trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ On Losses Losses are part of the mathematical reality of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they are necessary, expected, and managed. We acknowledge them, learn, and move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Further context and supporting material can be found in the Links section. Stay sharp 🧠 Stay consistent 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 FX:AUDUSD
by JCFRGNT
Technical Pullback or Early Signs of Trend Weakness?Hello everyone, let’s take a look at AUDUSD on the H4 timeframe. After a fairly smooth and extended rally, AUDUSD has entered a clear corrective phase. Price has slipped below the fast EMA, while the medium-term EMA — the level that previously supported the entire uptrend — is now being tested but not decisively broken. This is a very familiar post-trend state: the market is no longer euphoric, yet not weak enough to signal a full reversal. From a structural perspective, the current decline carries more characteristics of a technical pullback than a complete trend deterioration. Buying momentum has slowed as new highs lose their dominance, but on H4 the sequence of higher lows is still intact. Price is reacting directly around the medium-term EMA — a dynamic support that worked effectively throughout the prior rally — and the fact that downside range has not expanded suggests selling pressure is more corrective than aggressive. Volume during the pullback has increased compared to the prior consolidation phase, reflecting profit-taking after the uptrend, but not to a degree that would qualify as strong distribution. In other words, the market is releasing pressure rather than entering a capitulation phase. From an experience-based perspective, this is the zone where the market must answer a key question: is the uptrend still being defended? If the medium-term EMA continues to hold and price shows renewed acceptance above it, this correction is likely to function as a rebalancing phase before trend continuation. Conversely, a clear H4 close below the medium-term EMA, accompanied by a break of the higher low structure, would signal that the trend is beginning to lose its foundation. In terms of context, AUDUSD remains influenced by the divergence in policy expectations between the Fed and the RBA, as well as global risk sentiment. These factors will ultimately determine whether the current pullback remains a purely technical move or evolves into a broader phase of weakness.
Short
by DomicChaina
2
NZDUSD: false breakout setup🛠 Technical Analysis: On the H4 chart, NZDUSD remains in a broader bullish structure after the earlier “global bullish signal” from the base. The recent pullback formed a corrective descending channel, but the latest dip produced a clear false breakout below the lower boundary. Price has now reclaimed the key demand area around 0.5989–0.5991, turning it back into near-term support. The pair is holding above the rising SMA100 and SMA200, suggesting the short-term trend is still constructive despite the correction. A sustained hold above the reclaimed support increases the odds of a push back to the upper resistance zone near 0.6086. If price slips back below 0.5989 and fails to recover quickly, the bullish scenario weakens and the move could extend toward lower supports. ——————————————— ❗️ Trade Parameters (BUY) ——————————————— ➡️ Entry Point: 0.59893 🎯 Take Profit: 0.60857 🔴 Stop Loss: 0.59255 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
Long
by Trade8Eight
2
EUR/USD | Going to the bearish breaker (READ THE CAPTION)Good afternoon folks, Amirali here. As you can see in the hourly chart of EURUSD, in the early hours of today, it reached the Bullish OB zone, then Swept the liquidity pool and then went up, hitting the IFVG and then gone above it, now being traded at 1.1796. I'm eying the Bearish Breaker for a potential reversal. However if it goes through the bearish breaker, the targets are: 1.1805, 1.812, 1.819 and 1.1826. If it reacts to the Bearish Breaker, the targets are: 1.1790, 1.1784, 1.1778 and 1.1772.
by AmirAliTrading
19
AUDUSD Will Go Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.697. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.689 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
3
AUDUSD Rally Into Sell Zone | Strong Dollar Theme Returns!Hey Traders, In today’s trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential selling opportunity around the 0.70200 zone. AUDUSD remains in a clear downtrend and is currently in a corrective pullback, approaching a confluence resistance area near 0.70200, where the descending trendline aligns with a key support-turned-resistance zone. This area could act as a sell-the-rally level if bearish momentum returns. From a fundamental perspective, the recent Fed Chair nomination of Kevin Warsh is viewed as hawkish, which may support short-term USD strength. A stronger dollar typically pressures risk currencies like the Australian dollar, adding fundamental confluence to the bearish technical outlook. As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
8
AUD-USD Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! AUDUSD breaks decisively below a well-respected horizontal supply zone, confirming bearish structure shift. Acceptance below supply signals smart money distribution and continuation toward lower liquidity. -------------------- Stop Loss: 0.6993 Take Profit: 0.6939 Entry: 0.6971 Time Frame: 2H -------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
AUD/USD | Where to next? (READ THE CAPTION)As you can see, after hitting the Consequent Encroachment of the Feb 2nd's NWOG, AUDUSD went back up from 0.6958 to 0.6990, and then dropped again just above the high of the NWOG, and is now being at 0.6970. I expect AUDUSD to retest the IFVG, but before that it may fall back to the Feb 2nd NWOG. If it holds above the NWOG, the targets are: 0.6978, 0.6988, 0.6998 and 0.7008. If it fails to hold above the NWOG: 0.6966, 0.6958, 0.6950 and 0.6942.
by AmirAliTrading
9
NZD/USD | In the breaker zone (READ THE CAPTION)After reaching 0.6092 last week, NZDUSD dropped over 100 pips and now is being traded at 0.5985, having hit the Bullish Breaker and after piercing through the Breaker once, it dropped in the zone again. I expect NZD to eventually make it out of the Breaker zone, and go for today's NDOG at 0.6002. If it makes it out of the breaker zone to go higher, targets are: 0.5993, 0.6000, 0.6007 and 0.6013. If it fails and goes lower: 0.5976, 0.5970, 0.5964 and 0.5958.
by AmirAliTrading
1
TheGrove | AUDUSD SELL | Day Trading AnalysisAUDUSD is moving on support area..We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity AUDUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ⚜️
Short
by TheGrove
3
AUDUSD — FRGNT DAILY FORECAST Q1 | D5 | W5 | Y26📅 Q1 | D5 | W5 | Y26 📊 AUDUSD — FRGNT DAILY FORECAST 🔍 Analysis Approach I’m applying a developed version of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured focus on: • Identifying Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Using those POIs to define a clear and controlled trading range 📐 • Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) as confirmation ✅ This process keeps me precise, disciplined, and aligned with market narrative, rather than reacting emotionally or chasing price. 💡 My Motto “Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge.” A positive risk-to-reward ratio, combined with a high-probability execution model, is the backbone of any sustainable trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ On Losses Losses are part of the mathematical reality of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they are necessary, expected, and managed. We acknowledge them, learn, and move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Further context and supporting material can be found in the Links section. Stay sharp 🧠 Stay consistent 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 FX:AUDUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
AUD/USD Reclaims 0.70 on RBA Hike: Undervalued Carry Play?Title: 🚀 AUD/USD Reclaims 0.70 on RBA Hike: Undervalued Carry Play or USD Rebound Risk? 2026 Dive! Hello TradingView community! 👋 Today, let's dive into AUDUSD with a detailed analysis focusing on fundamentals, SWOT, and technicals. 📊 This isn't financial advice just an in-depth look based on public data. Current Snapshot: Price: 0.7000 💵 52-Week High/Low: 0.7094 / 0.6600 📈📉 Market Cap: N/A (forex pair) Fundamental Analysis (e.g., Intrinsic Value and Ratios): For forex pairs like AUDUSD, adapt methods to macro models like purchasing power parity (PPP) or uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), using inputs like interest differentials (RBA 3.85% vs Fed ~3.00 to 3.25%), relative inflation (Australia 3.4% vs US ~2.0%), and GDP growth (Australia 2.1% vs US 4.4%). For instance, PPP models might project a value range of 0.70 to 0.75 based on growth assumptions of 2% differential, long-term inflation convergence to 2.5%, and a 5% risk premium, incorporating commodity support (e.g., gold rallies). Compare to peers for relative valuation (e.g., AUD stronger vs USD due to hawkish RBA vs dovish Fed, with forecasts to 0.69 to 0.70 by mid-2026). Key metrics: Interest differential (+0.60%), real yield spread (positive for AUD), highlight efficiency and valuation status (undervalued below 0.70 amid policy divergence, but 0.71 forecasts imply upside). 📈 SWOT Analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats): Strengths : 💪 Hawkish RBA hikes (to 3.85%), robust GDP (2.1%), strong labor market (unemployment 4.1%), commodity tailwinds (gold, iron ore). Weaknesses : ⚠️ Dependence on China demand, persistent inflation (3.4%), potential capacity strains in housing. Opportunities : 🌟 Fed rate cuts (50bp expected 2026), USD weakness from de-dollarization, global growth pickup. Threats : 🛑 Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran), US policy shifts (Trump Fed chair), risk aversion spikes. Technical and Risk Insights: Incorporate non-repainting indicators like 200-day SMA (0.6700) for support/resistance. Current RSI (55) signals neutral momentum. Risk factors: Volatility (1.03%), or factor exposure (e.g., to interest rates). Consider performance attribution how much return comes from sector vs. stock selection (70% from rate differentials vs. commodity flows). 📉 Historical Context and Examples: AUDUSD has shown 5 to 10% annualized volatility over 10 years, with examples like the 2022 dip leading to recovery (from 0.6200 low to 0.7000 rebound amid rate hikes). This illustrates how methods like SWOT or PPP can inform decisions in real markets. 📜 What do you think does this align with your view on AUDUSD for 2026? Share your analyses or charts below! ❓ #AUDUSD #StockAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #InvestingEducation
by DCAChampion
AUD-JPY Bullish Bias! Buy! Hello,Traders! AUDJPY after a strong impulsive rally, price is pulling back into a well-respected horizontal demand zone. Prior liquidity sweep and displacement suggest smart money defending demand for a continuation higher. Time Frame 2H. Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
XAU/USD | Gold Update, Extreme Volatility After Historic DropBy analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4 hour timeframe, we can see that after a very strong rally, gold printed a historic high near $5600. Once price reached this level, it faced heavy selling pressure and experienced a massive historical drop of more than $1200, falling all the way to $4400, which equals roughly a 20% correction. After hitting $4400, demand stepped in aggressively and pushed gold back up to $4800. These days, gold is showing extreme volatility, with average hourly moves of 1500 to 2000 pips, which has significantly increased risk for traders. At the moment, gold is trading around $4775. If price can hold and stabilize above $4727, we can expect further upside toward levels above $5000. With strong support on this analysis, I will share much more detailed insights on gold’s moves and the key drivers behind this rally and correction very soon. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
23
AUDUSD: reaction from 0.70🛠 Technical Analysis: On the D1 timeframe, AUDUSD has rallied aggressively and is now pressing into a major resistance band around 0.6990–0.7020. The steep advance into this zone increases the odds of a pause, a rejection, or a brief false breakout before a corrective pullback starts. Price is still holding above the rising structure and remains above the SMA 50/100/200, but the move is stretched versus the moving-average cluster below. A clean rejection from resistance would favor a retracement toward the first demand area around 0.6627 (near the SMA100 zone). If bearish momentum expands, the next larger support zone marked on the chart sits around 0.6330–0.6350. A sustained daily hold above the resistance (and especially above 0.7116) would invalidate the sell scenario and shift bias back to continuation. ——————————————— ❗️ Trade Parameters (SELL) ——————————————— ➡️ Entry Point: Sell on rejection / false-break attempt at 0.6990–0.7020 🎯 Take Profit: 0.6627 (extended target: 0.6330–0.6350 support zone) 🔴 Stop Loss: 0.7116 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
Short
by Trade8Eight