AUD/USD – Fundamentals Driving Downtrend | 24.11.2025Bearish Channel + Rate-Cut Expectation Pressure = Downside Continuation Setup
🔍 Technical Setup
AUD/USD continues to trade inside a falling channel, respecting the trendline resistance (multiple rejections marked). Price is currently moving toward the resistance zone, offering a potential sell-on-retest opportunity before further downside.
📌 Bias remains bearish as long as price stays below the channel resistance + Ichimoku cloud.
🎯 Trading Plan :
📌 Targets (Support Levels):
1st Support: 0.64130
2nd Support: 0.63912
📌 Invalidation / Risk:
A breakout above 0.6480 would reduce bearish bias.
⚠️ Today’s Fundamental Drivers :
1️⃣ Rate-cut expectations surged:
Markets now price 69% chance of a December rate cut, up from 44% last week → weakens AUD.
2️⃣ New York Fed statement shook sentiment:
Fed official highlighted weak job market as a bigger risk than high inflation, increasing probability of monetary easing → USD firming vs risk currencies like AUD.
➡️ When fundamentals + technical trend align, continuation move is likely.
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This chart is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.
Always manage risk and follow your own trading plan.
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