The Bear Market Isn't Coming? Old BTC Playbook is a TrapFor years, traders have relied on Bitcoin's predictable cycles. We look for the same clues, the same topping signals, and the same patterns. But what if the market has evolved? What if the playbook we've all been studying is now a trap?
This analysis dives deep into key indicators across all three major bull runs, comparing the RSI, MACD, Volume, and especially the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP). The data suggests that while some classic bearish signals are flashing, the market's underlying structure is telling a very different, and potentially much more bullish, story.
A Tale of Two Cycles: The Historical Baseline
To understand where we are, we must first look back.
The First Bull Run (2015-2017): This cycle was defined by raw, explosive power. The weekly RSI crossed above 80 a staggering four times. However, the end was confusing. We had bearish RSI divergences fighting against bullish MACD. The primary exit signals were a massive spike in selling volume and a BBWP reading that finally hit 94%, signaling trend exhaustion. It was effective, but messy.
The Second Bull Run (2018-2021): This cycle top was much clearer and became the "classic" model for many traders. The RSI crossed 80 only twice, and the end was signaled by a textbook combination of:
Classic bearish divergences on the RSI and MACD.
Obvious selling pressure at the top.
Crucially, the BBWP spectrum crossed 90% three separate times, screaming trend exhaustion before the final downturn.
The Current Cycle: A New Breed of Bull 📈
Now, let's analyze our current cycle, which began in November 2022. On the surface, some things look familiar, but the engine of this trend is behaving in a completely unprecedented way.
The Familiar Signs (The Bear Case):
Yes, we can see a classic bearish divergence forming on both the RSI and MACD. Furthermore, the recent buying volume, while still okay, is showing signs of weakness compared to the explosive start of the rally. This is what is causing many analysts to call for a cycle top, just like before.
The Unprecedented Anomalies (The Bull Case):
This is where it gets interesting and why the old playbook may fail.
No BBWP Exhaustion: Unlike the (2015-2017) (2018-2021) bull runs, the BBWP spectrum has not crossed 90% a single time during this entire uptrend. The volatility has never reached the levels of euphoria and exhaustion that marked previous tops. The trend, while strong, has not shown signs of being "finished."
The Contraction Anomaly: This is the most compelling signal on the chart. Historically, a major BBWP contraction (the indicator squeezing down) signals that energy is building for a massive expansion in price. This event has almost always marked the beginning of a new bull phase or the start of a major move up. Yet, here we are at the supposed end of the cycle, and the BBWP is contracting again. This has never happened at a cycle peak before. This odd behavior suggests that instead of winding down, the market could be coiling up for another powerful move, Also the number of contractions in this cycle is much higher than the pervious cycles which explains the elliot waves unexpected targets
Elliott Wave Strength: While I have not drawn the Elliott Wave count here because every trader's interpretation can be subjective, my personal count indicates that the current wave structure is targeting prices significantly higher than the current all-time high.
Summary and Final Thoughts
To summarize, while we have some classic, textbook bearish signals that would have marked the top in (2018-2021), we also have powerful, unprecedented evidence suggesting this cycle is different.
The lack of a BBWP exhaustion signal (>90%) is a major deviation from the last 2 cycle top.
The current BBWP contraction at a "cycle end" is a massive anomaly. This is typically a pre-trend signal, not an end-of-trend signal, and could be hinting at a major breakout ahead.
This is not a guarantee of a continued bull run, but rather a data-driven observation that the market is showing a structure we haven't seen before. Relying solely on the old playbook could be a mistake. The market is evolving, and our analysis must evolve with it.
I have marked every anomaly and pattern on the chart, You can zoom in and analyze for yourself
I'm open to all discussions and opinions in the comments
Trade safe and keep an open mind.
