$BTC Sunday Report Bitcoin touched 116.6K CRYPTOCAP:BTC Sunday Report
Bitcoin touched 116.6K right where we expected, and I’m still holding my short position with eyes on lower targets. If price pushes into the 120–125K zone, I’ll add more there.
We already saw a dump from 116K to 107K three weeks ago, and now BTC has returned to the 116K zone, but this hasn’t changed the overall picture. Market makers continue to push altcoins higher to trap liquidity before the real move down.
⚠️ The FOMC meeting a key event, with the policy statement scheduled for Sep 17 at 18:00 UTC, followed by a press conference at 18:30 UTC. Regardless of whether the Fed cuts rates or not, I expect the market to remain bearish as liquidity is still being engineered for a larger downside play.
Added more at 116.6K (average entry now around 115.5K)
Will add again if we revisit 120–125K
Targets stay the same at 105K → 100K → 95K → 90K
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Growth Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is going up now
And the coin made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 113k$ so we are
Bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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BITCOIN vs GOLD Is something like that inevitable?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been often described as the digital Gold, mainly due to its scarcity (fixed supply), compared to Gold's value as a safe haven asset. So what's the deal with this comparison chart?
If you follow us for long, you should know that we are strong believers of BTC's 4-year Cycle theory, which has served us so well and helped us buy and sell near cyclical bottoms and tops respectively.
However, as the market matures (remember Bitcoin is 'only' 16 years old), it could/ should eventually break this pattern upwards into aggressively higher valuations, which could be the shift to a new paradigm as mass adoption kicks in.
As a result, could it make a vicious bullish break-out above this Triangle in a similar way as Gold past 2024? Essentially, can we argue that Gold is leading the way as the traditional asset? Or the 4-year Cycle will go on for much longer than many think?
We are very interested in your thoughts. Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is this the last rally of the Cycle??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has held its 1W MA20 (red trend-line) to perfection and closed last week in green for the first time after 3 straight red 1W candles.
As discussed in previous analyses, the 1W MA20 is critical to BTC's bullish trend as it is the trend-line that supported every final parabolic rally on its previous Cycles.
Even on the current Bull Cycle, it has been the first (and main) level of Support during the entirety of the 3-year Channel Up. The second one is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and was the ultimate Buy Signal on all three occasions it was hit (or approached), which coincided with a 0.382 Fibonacci retracement test.
Since the last contact the market had with both the 1W MA50 and 0.382 Fib (April 07 2025 Low), Bitcoin has been trading within the Channel's 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci range, which is the zone that has dominated the price action for most of the Bull Cycle. It broke below or above it 4 times, twice below it in the early stages of the Channel Up and as the Cycle's strength accelerated, twice above it to form Higher Highs.
Those Higher Highs have been the mid-Cycle 'Profit taking Zones' (red Triangles), where traders/ investors were encouraged to book quarterly profits and wait for a lower buy opportunity o the 1W MA50/ 0.382 Fib Support Cluster.
Once again, this is were we expect this upcoming final BTC rally to peak. Technically, even if we see a highly aggressive rise starting now, this Zone should be at $140k and above. Profit taking is a personal matter to each trader, depending on their risk tolerance and how low/ soon they entered the market, but this chart can serve as a reminder on their profit taking strategy.
So are you booking your profits soon for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Sell Signal Points To 106K AREA.Bitcoin has rejected the 113K as a resistance with a clear bearish pin bar close. The low of that pin bar has been broken which qualifies as a sell signal on the daily time frame. 113K was previously a key support, and now a resistance which further adds to the broader corrective argument that I have been writing about for weeks. So what does this mean?
The next support is the 105K area and that is where I am anticipating a test either this week or next. Besides CPI, this month also features the next FOMC meeting which can act as a major catalyst bullish OR bearish. These economic events are big enough to affect Bitcoin in a major way which makes it within reason to test the 105K area. IF 105K breaks, the next support after that is the 102 to 100K area.
These support references serve as important potential pivot points for day trades and swing trades. You have to evaluation the price action for reversals along with utilizing a realistic reward/risk framework. For example, since Bitcoin has proven to no longer be in an impulse wave (trend) it is more likely in a consolidation. In practice this means LOWER expectations are warranted. Instead of placing take profit objectives on highs or new highs, it is within reason to choose a higher probability objective like 1:1 or whatever the next resistance is at the time of the reversal. Like 113K can be used as a resistance for a profit objective now (UNTIL OR UNLESS IT BREAKS).
Using wave counts helps immensely when it comes to forming expectations that are in line with market intent. Since the 108K overlap I am anticipating more of a range bound type of environment which means both RANGE support and resistance levels are significant. This is in contrast to expecting the market to continue to trend which is a common mistake among the less experienced. This thought framework is relevant to swing trades and day trades as the market character changes more frequently over shorter time frames. Even as an investor, the wave counts can help you to recognize much higher quality buying opportunities rather than buying at any price.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN Is the end of the Bull Cycle approaching?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may be approaching the end of its current Bull Cycle and a few weeks ago we have issued a first reminder of the dynamics of this Cycle in relation to all previous. The historic symmetry is high and this time we've presented it using the Time Cycles and Time Fibonacci levels.
As mentioned on previous studies, measuring the Super Cycle from bottom-to-bottom, the Top tends to be formed around the 0.786 Time Fib. Naturally the distance from the 0.786 Fib and 1.0 is the Bear Phase (red). What follows next is the Bear Buy (blue) of the Bull Phase from Fib 0.0 to Fib 0.236.
What concerns us most at this stage is the fact that 0.786 Time Fib is on the week starting December 01 2025. To make things more alarming, if the next Bear Phase follows the last two that measured 51 days from Top-to-Bottom, since the Super Cycle ends on October 05 2026, the next potential Top of this Cycle could be on the week starting October 13 2025!
Certainly food for thought, surely the current Cycle got derailed/ delayed a few months by Trump's tarrifs but above all this serves as a reminder that booking profits in trading is key. And especially since very few actually manage to do so on Tops.
So are you booking profits for this Cycle or not yet? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 4H Bullish Cross formed. Can it sustain a rally to 124k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just completed its first Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame between the MA20 (red trend-line) and the MA50 (blue trend-line). Following a rejection after marginally breaching above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), this pattern looks very similar to the Bullish Cross of June 25.
Both took place after a strong medium-term correction is the form of Channel Down patterns, with the Bullish Crosses getting formed after a Lower Highs break-out. If fact even the August 07 MA20/50 Bullish Cross led to a strong rally.
As a result, if BTC manages to turn its 4H MA100 into a Support, we expect it to initiate a new rally to test at least the previous High above $124k, similar to the July 03 High test. The 0.786 and 0618 Fibonacci levels can be used as Resistance and Support levels upon break-outs and pull-backs respectively.
So do you think this 4H MA20/50 Bullish Cross can kickstart a new rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN dominance crashing. Are we ahead of a major Altseason?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on a relative correction lately, down more than $15000 from its last All Time High (ATH). Despite this obvious technical weakness, there is one indicator that delivers a very promising signal, not just for BTC but for the crypto market as a whole.
That is Bitcoin's Dominance (BTC.D, blue trend-line), which got rejected on its 8-year Lower Highs trend-line in mid-June and is pulling-back every since. This chart shows that both last two Cycles, such a rejection that took place in the last year of the Cycle, not only initiated a BTC rally but also an even stronger rise on the altcoin market, what is otherwise known as an 'Altseason'.
This time it took place about 6 months before the end of the year (projected end of the Bull Cycle), which is exactly what happened in 2017, the Cycle that the current one looks most like it.
As a result, we expect the current market weakness last at most another 2 weeks, which is roughly by the time of the next Fed meeting where the majority of the market is eagerly anticipating the first Rate Cut in years.
Do you think that is the signal of an upcoming final rally on Bitcoin and an Altseason? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN ahead of September crash on historically worst month??Despite the obvious hint of 2 potential rate hikes by the end of this year, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has found itself on a downtrend. And as today we entered the first day of September, this sentiment is further empowered by one simple statistical fact: that September has historically been BTC's worst performing month.
As this table on the chart shows (source: CoinGlass), September's average returns have been -3.77%, the worst average score out of all months since 2013. An interesting fact however is that out of all the Septembers that ended in green (4), they did so when there was a red August (like the one we just closed at -5.91%). At the same time out of all the times August was red (8) four times September followed in red. This shows that historical probabilities are equally distributed there.
Statistics aside, the market has a strong case of a bottom on the current levels and that's purely a technical one. As you can see, since May 01, Bitcoin has been trading within a Channel Up. This pattern has seen so far two Bullish Legs of almost identical rise (+22.07% and +21.05% respectively) and when they corrected (Bearish Legs), the first Low was on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the second on the Channel Up bottom.
This time there is an even stronger technical case, as the price hit the 1W MA20 (red trend-line), which as we've shown on a recent study, is a Support level that historically kickstarts the final rallies during Bull Cycles.
Even their 1D RSI sequences are similar, with the indicator currently being on a Lower Lows formation that previously marked the June 22 (Higher) Low.
As a result, assuming we will see the 'minimum' of +21.07% Bullish Leg, we should be expecting a $130000 Higher High, which matches our realistic Cycle Top study, based on most studies we've conducted.
So do you think Bitcoin will again declined this September or we are currently forming a new bottom? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is going down
Now and the coin made
A bearish breakout of the
Key horizontal level
Of 110k$ so we are locally
Bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bitcoin: Wave 4 Overlap Changes Expectations.Bitcoin has compromised the 108K area overlap which refers to the wave 1/wave 4 overlap rule for the broader wave 5 impulse that I have been measuring for months. While this can be very subjective, this fact prompts me to adjust my expectations in regards to trend structure, along with risk management.
The wave 4 overlap does NOT necessarily mean a bear market is ahead but it does justify considering a lower probability of new high (or wave 5), and a greater probability of a consolidation. So what does this mean for traders and investors? This pull back should not be treated like a typical pull back. In a corrective structure, after the completion of the A wave, which the current leg is likely to be, it is followed by the B wave. This typically establishes a lower high which can be expressed as a move from current prices back to the 115K area. Those who are unaware will get caught in this thinking new highs are just around the corner.
IF I am correct about this proposed corrective scenario, this can be very beginning of a very broad wave 2 which can eventually lead price back into the 80Ks. At this magnitude such a move can take a year to play out. Gold has shown similar patterns that persist for years before breaking out, so this scenario is within reason.
Key factors to watch for: there are many fundamental question marks that the market has to adjust to. There are numerous data points that are expected over the next few months like NFP, the FOMC rate cut, and how the FED hints at future quantitative easing. While this situation seems beneficial to Bitcoin, we can't take it for granted. This is a sentiment game, NOT a logical one. This is why I use prices to determine if risk is worth taking, not my economic opinion that is based on public information. This means it is possible to have a favorable easy money environment, and Bitcoin can still be stuck in a broad range.
With the 108K overlap in place, I will be mostly interested in whole number support levels like 105K, 100K, 95K ext. Even a retest of the 108K support for a double bottom, but if I consider any longs the profit objective will be low (like 1.5 to 1 or even 1:1). I am only interested in swing trades because in my opinion these are not investing levels.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN The NIGHTMARE BEAR CYCLE fractal that Bulls must avoid!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a strong correction lately after the August 14 All Time High (ATH) at $124500. Every High since has been sold and the price has found itself below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Whether that's alarming or not yet, this sequence draws a lot of comparisons with the pattern that led to the Cycle Top on 2021.
As you can see both patterns started off with Lower Highs that pushed the market to a new bottom on Lower Lows. A 1D Death Cross confirmed the bottom formation (along with a 1D RSI bullish divergence on Higher Lows) and BTC started rising aggressively again, flipping both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) into Supports and forming a Bull Flag on a 1D Golden Cross.
At the end of this sequence in 2021, a Double Top Higher Highs pattern, was what formed the Cycle's Top. Unfortunately for the Bulls' case, this is very similar to the Higher High formation we got on August 14. Even the 1D RSI patterns among those two fractals are similar.
Do you think we are in a similar situation as in late November 2021, which initiated the 2022 Bear Cycle?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The August-September bottom cheat sheet!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just entered its 2-year Buy Zone, which is a Higher Lows belt that has priced its last 3 major bottoms and since the November 2022 Bear market bottom, has been the most optimal long-term buy entry.
A very interesting fact is that the August - September period since 2023 has been such a bottom formation, with the 1W RSI Support Zone, providing an additional confirmation for a long-term buy entry, also present during the March - April 2025 Tariff led correction.
As a result, it is highly likely to start seeing the new Bullish Leg starting by the first 1-2 weeks of September, with the previous two rising by +96.86 and +105.80% respectively. That suggests that BTC could marginally surpass $200k before the Cycle peaks. That would also be just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from Aprils Low, similar to the December 2024 High.
So do you think $200000 is possible for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Wave 4 Unitl 108K Break.Bitcoin has just established a lower high in the 117K area. While this is a bearish sign for intraday time frames, the broader structure has yet to confirm a change. The change I am looking for is the price overlap of the 108K area. The 112 to 113 support area while some what broken, has not followed through yet. IF price stays in this range and manages to say above 108K, then this can still qualify as a wave 4. IF 108K breaks, then this confirms that the 5 wave structure is likely complete. If that's that case, the bigger picture outlook becomes more bearish.
The bearish scenario I am referring to is the broader Wave 2. Keep in mind, if this is the case, it can take a very long time to play out (months, years). And a series of catalysts would likely be in play. We have nothing like that yet. Also keep in mind, Bitcoin follows the Nasdaq, with lower interest rates, and easier monetary policy on the horizon, tech stocks are likely to benefit which should be a positive. Not a strong argument fundamentally. This is why if you are considering the short side, it is best to work on small time frames and keep risk tight in my opinion.
While any pull back is tempting to buy, this one is tricky because of the conflicting situation. 5 waves may be complete which means the pullbacks from here are more likely to break. Especially support levels that are obvious like 113K. Either work on smaller time frames like 1H or 4H and expect a smaller bite upon a signal confirmation, OR wait for the next level like the 105K to 108K area support for a swing trade with greater potential. Buy signals that confirm between 112 and 108K area could look to the 115 to 118K area for profit potential. It is touch to calculate when there is no confirmation on the chart.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN LOCAL LONG|
✅BITCOIN went down to retest
A local horizontal support of 114,6k
While trading in a strong uptrend
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that a move up
From the level is to be expected
Towards the target above at 115,6k
LONG🚀
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BITCOIN Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN made a bullish
Rebound from the horizontal
Support of 111k just as
I predicted in my previous
Analysis but now the coin
Is retesting a local resistance
From where we will be expecting
A local bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BTC Warning: Hidden Signals Before October’s Big Move!Right now, I’m leaning a bit bearish on BTC. Why?
I’m spotting a bearish divergence both on the daily and weekly timeframe.
Volume has also been drying up, which makes the move look a bit weak.
And historically… September tends to be shaky before October kicks in with that bullish momentum.
That said, I’ve marked key support zones in case BTC decides to dump before a bounce:
🔴 112,770 (0.236 Fib) – first line of defense
🟠 105,455 (0.382 Fib) – solid support zone
🟢 99,543 (0.5 Fib) – critical level to hold
🔵 93,631 – 92,028 (0.618–0.65 Fib) – last strong demand zone
So if BTC wants to test liquidity, these are the areas I’m watching closely.
👉 What do you guys think? Are you also seeing the same bearish signs, or do you think BTC skips the dump and runs straight into October bullish?
Drop your thoughts below ⬇️ and hit that follow if you’re tracking BTC moves with me. Let’s ride this market together. 💯
BITCOIN Are the 0.5 Fib and 1D MA100 coming to the rescue?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for exactly the past 4 months (since April 22) and the recent correction off its All Time High (ATH) has broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 02 and is about to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
The 1D MA100 has been intact since the day the Channel Up started so it is on its own a strong Support. It gets stronger though, considering that this is where the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level is from its ATH, which is exactly where BTC rebounded (and priced the previous Higher Low) on June 22.
As you can see, there is a very high degree of symmetry among the Bullish and Bearish Legs of the Channel Up and the 0.5 Fib is -11.09% from the recent High, which is again the % correction of BTC's last Bearish Leg.
Notice also the similarities between the Bearish Legs' fractals, being on Lower Highs and Lower Lows. A new Lower Low now, would potentially signal the bottom.
As far as the next Bullish Leg is concerned, based on the previous one, we can expect a rise to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which is at $140000.
Do you think history will be repeated once more? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Below its 1D MA50. Is there any Support?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 02, having previously rebounded on it (August 02) on a perfect technical bounce that delivered a new All Time High (ATH).
Naturally, the 1D MA50 is the first medium-term line of Support and last time it broke convincingly, the price found a bottom (June 22) closer to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). That was during BTC's previous Accumulation Phase of the 4-month Channel Up.
If that pattern is repeated, then Bitcoin's next Support could be within 112000 - 111000. On top of that, it would be useful to keep an eye on the 1D RSI, which is printing a pattern similar to he previous Accumulation Phase that bottomed on the 39.00 level.
As far as the next High is concerned, if it repeats the +22.72% rise that the previous Bullish Legs delivered from the 1D MA50 contact, then we're potentially looking at $137000 as the pattern's next Higher High.
So what's your view? Do you think the 1D MA100 will come to BTC's rescue and push it to $137k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The vast importance of the Pivots. Is $180k possible?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is most likely starting the new Bullish Leg of this Cycle, as stated on our recent analysis following the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) rebound.
Today we point out the critical role of Pivot trend-lines, which throughout the entirety of the current Bull Cycle, have provided a Support level and initiated massive rebounds.
Those Bullish Legs not only tend to be similar in strength (+60% to +92%) but the time between their starts is roughly the same (39 to 46 weeks).
Given also the fact that the 1W RSI has printed the same kind of consolidation it always forms when such a Bullish Leg started, we do expect a strong rally next, which if the +60% minimum rise holds, may very well be as close as $180000.
So do you think BTC can reach $180k before this Cycle is over or it's too high? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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