BITCOIN → The “90K” door opened a corridor to $75,000BINANCE:BTCUSD is changing its market structure to bearish after the 90K breakout. A deeper correction is forming and in my opinion this is a logical and technically correct structure for a healthy market
I think it is a wrong siutation when the market is only going up and solely due to buying (injecting huge amount of funds on a HYIP).
A bitcoin correction or even a trend reversal can bring a drop of life to this market.
Fundamentally, traders have not waited for any active support for cryptocurrencies from the US as stated in Trump's election campaign. Crypto exchange hacks, scam coins and bitcoin dominance are negatively affecting altcoins.
Bitcoin's current decline and possible drop to 75-73K could give fundamentally valuable altcoins a chance, provided the flagging dominance index also starts to decline. As the simultaneous flow of funds from bitcoin to altcoins and bitcoin's rise from strong support could renew the chances of an altcoin season
Resistance levels: 88150, 90700
Support levels: 75К, 73570, 66830
A small correction to resistance 88.1 - 90.7 is possible before price starts its decline. BTC may try to go deeper, but based on the situation with the market imbalance, lack of driver and support, the price may descend in the medium term and reach the zone of interest and liquidity 75-73.5K.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin-consolidation
Bitcoin: Consolidation will end in ... days!!!It has been very boring lately for bitcoin, 3 weeks of indecisive trading, and consolidation. Nobody can tell where is the crypto market going, except for one. The one and only who can see the future, chemastro!
*Follow me now! I am the one who sees the future! Do you want to miss seeing the future? Shame on you!
Bitcoin Status: Biting our nails waiting for what's next?Everything feels and looks stagnant, what's going on?
As mentioned before, it needs to correct a little bit, before it picks up again, which is (again as I said) .. fine. It does not mean that Bitcoin will retrace below the 25k.
What I will do personally, is wait till tomorrow, I assume there will be a trigger over the weekend, that will move the markets.
*Follow me to be able to receive updates like this (Of course, watch the video as I am explaining everything in detail).
The BIG Bitcoin Video Update!!! 25K or BUST!Conquerors! It has been a while since I made a tradingview update. I decided to make my newest video update here so everyone has the ability to see it. BTC has been in consolidation now for 9 FULL months (resistance 25k, support 16k). We have had the ability not to turn 25k into support, and we still have a chance too. Watch the video to find out why 25k is SO important. Crypto is in very interesting times and I am hoping for a new bull run but the economy and other markets give me reason to believe it will be difficult. Still, we have a chance for this, I want to keep us all updated. Have a great weekend everyone!
Will Bitcoin Continue Upwards?
A continuation of upwards momentum for Bitcoin is more likely than any capitulation to the downside. BTC is drawing support on the one hour timeframe from the 21500 resistance line, which developed in the aftermath of the FTX debacle and was confirmed upon this month's upwards price action. We saw the same resistance line rejecting Bitcoin's price on January 18th until Bitcoin finally broke past the line on the 20th.
Moreover, February's slight depression in price has not been reflected in either cumulative volatility (which I measure as the reversion between the median and the mean) or the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. This tells that the price is consolidating significantly, despite the macroeconomic conditions or the recent resistance in other risk markets, such as equities. I hesitantly point to a combination of technical reversion to the mean and policy (such as Kraken's staking program in conflict with the U.S. government) for the fall.
If the 21500 resistance does not hold, we can expect the next resistance at 20400, at the geometric median. After December began and Bitcoin began to consolidate from its plummet, we saw this median (denoted in yellow on-chart) reject the price twice (on Dec 14th and between the 20th-26th, respectfully), before Bitcoin finally broke through on Jan 10th, starting its current uptrend.
Finally, I noticed a few ideas mentioning the RSI and Bitcoin as well as macroeconomic factors for reasons why this current rally could be a bull trap. I included the RSI on this chart because I am aware that, since Jan 23rd, the RSI has turned significantly bearish, producing lower highs and lower lows. I interpret this as the RSI is adjusting to the more muted volatility of the price action following the elevated volatility of the 35% rise over a month, which is just a factor of these indicators not calculating from dynamic lookback periods. As for macroeconomic conditions, we must remember that risk assets trade on forward-looking expectations. As the full effects of federal policy will take months to take effect, and as Bitcoin continues to decouple from a high correlation with the stock market, I expect further consolidation, instead of a lower low, especially given the strength of the rally produced this past month.
Support below 20400: 18500, 17500, 16500. Resistance above current price: 22500, 23500, 24600. Strangely uniform levels.
Regards, wbburgin
The pullback hasn't ended, keep an eye on this!Firstly, I want to say I'm sorry because I didn't announce I was going to take a break from posting this week. But I'm back. Bitcoin broke the $46.2k nPoC (check previous Weekly Review post) right after I published my thoughts, and ww rallied until $48k. After that, we started to see a pullback to around $44k, which got bought up.
The main thing I see on this week's price action is that price failed to set a higher high, and, to be even more bearish, it flipped the support level at $47k (0.618 fib, weekly PoC and anchored VWAP) to resistance. But this is not enough. We also see that, on the volume profile, that most of the volume traded is at the top, meaning that a consolidation is what whales are looking for.
My targets stay the same (again, check the last Weekly Review): mainly the FVG sitting at $43k. I do expect some crabbing around these prices at the start of the week, to be honest. Lastly, I want to thank you again for reading my posts. Have a good trading!
BTCUSD - Wedge and consolidation areaCurrently BTCUSD is breaking down from a small ascending wedge inside a large ascending wedge. (impulse 4)
If we continue this pattern we move to 53-54K High end of August , to break down to the 40K support zone in early-mid September.
This would, if it holds up, have formed a beautiful consolidation after the past bullish move upwards.
I'm crossing my fingers, looking at Alt's that have boomed on impulse 3, and hold up nicely during impulse 4, buying and holding them for this possibly spectacular run.
XRP DOGE SOL TRX ADA , are looking good right now.
DOGEUSD - Possibly set up for launchDOGE Looks like its setting up for another bullrun during Bitcoins 5'th impulse move from 45K to 52-54K inside its ascending wedge.
Looking at bitcoin nearing its pattern's rising support line and losing downwards momentum, it does seem like it will bottom out here, and soon bounce.
Target's for DOGE, kinda hard to predict, but i'll make a sketch, so here are my assumptions:
It will pump less in % than last run
it will be a slower pump
it will have more stops as it meets levels it has gone through already unlike previous run.
Comparing with BTCUSD for timing.
Good luck with your trades.
BTC Consolidation... Then off to the moon! Bitcoin is consolidating at the same price range as it did back in January. Once we broke that STRONG Resistance, it flipped to Support while BTC Ranged up.
Now that same critical level is back to being a Resistance Area. The longer a coin/token consolidates, the stronger the Breakout will be. Think of it as a wall, and the more times we hit it in a short period, the more likely it is to break. Right now, Bitcoin is coiling up, ready to strike.
The bulls stepped in with force and held the line $29,500.
If you are newer to crypto and just got into the market this year, then you've only experienced up, and this is your first significant drop.
You won't ever forget this, I'm sure of it.
Take the lessons presented during these events and forge them into your psyche as they will continue to benefit you over and over the longer, you stay in this market.
Remember, the market must cause the most amount of people the maximum amount of pain.
When you invest and pull a 2-3X, take your initial $ out of the position.
Always cover your ass and manage your risk.
For now, we stay range-bound from $30k-$42k.
We are in no way out of the woods just yet, but we dodged a massive nuke in the market.
Depending on what your strategy is, continue to DCA into BTC and strong adults.
It's not about timing the market; it's about TIME IN THE MARKET.
BTC - Potential Weekend Breakout Targets & AnalysisThis was quite the week in Bitcoin world. After a very memorable dump, in part aided by Elon Musk, we find Bitcoin painting either a symmetrical triangle (continuation/bearish) or an ascending triangle (reversal/bullish).
I posted potential breakout targets, either likely within the next 24 hours. Look for confirmation of breakout with a retest of the respective resistance/support it breaks through, before entering a trade, due to the high possibility of a fakeout or trap.
Targets :
Bullish: Up to a 10% breakout would be both extremely positive news for Bitcoin and, if I'm being honest, a little unexpected currently. I opted for a more conservative breakout target here, but in reality with how uninspiring Bitcoin's price action is, a bullish breakout could be much lower than 10%. This target would land Bitcoin around a solid point of control and inside the next strong value area from a price volume perspective. This move could posture Bitcoin to resume the consolidation pattern we saw between 55k and 60k.
Bearish: Up to a 19% breakout below the current pattern is possible, but the support zone in the upper 40k range will be tested first. Once we drop under ~47k we don't have much support to fall to until the lower 40s, thanks to the Elon breakout in February leaving gaps between 40k and 45k.
Overall I'm bullish for this cycle long term, but short term, especially in light of the unusually heavy inflow, sell volume and fud we saw in the past 48 hours, I think we are due for some sideways or bearish price action for Bitcoin in the coming days/possibly weeks. As long as Bitcoin price action moves slowly, altcoins have an opportunity to grow. I'd still set a safe stoploss since Bitcoin is known for sometimes unpredictable and aggressive breakouts of the type that can sink altcoin prices. Overall we continue to see healthy industry/MM investment, with 3 very large (over 10,000 BTC each) investments by industry, with two of those buying Bitcoin over 50k, and the third in the upper 40k range in the past two weeks alone- leading credebility to the theory that Bitcoin price action since March was primarily driven by a prolonged accumulation by MM and industry.
Indicators :
4h Stoch RSI: approaching oversold but trending bullish for now
4h MACD: crossing bullish
4h EMA: trending bearish currently, closed under the 20MA on the 12 and haven't recovered over it yet
Bitcoin on the edge of something big! BTC has been consolidating quite a while in this bullish channel. If it breaks out and we see a close under the channel, we can expect to see a short-term downtrend. If it breaks above the channel, a long position can be made and we should look to retest a new ATH as our target. Here are my targets for a short-term bearish condition. I await a close on the 4 hr underneath the channel. Afterward, profits will be taken at previous support
Will BTC remain in the channel? Only time will tell.
NOTE: This is not financial advice. Enter any trade at your own risk.
BTCUSD, Consolidation: Get Ready for A Breakout!Hello traders! Bitcoin has been a little silent lately. A symmetric triangle has formed in the intra-day chart. Of course, a breakout comes after consolidation. We have a breakout within the next 30 hours! But where will prices go? I will breakdown the analysis I made for Bitcoin.
Let us see the key points:
1. Bitcoin has a possible Head and Shoulders Formation
Bitcoin has a possible H&S formation. The left shoulder and head are already formed. We just need the right shoulder to break the neckline(green dashed line) for confirmation. If this happens, the price will dive below 30k. The red dashed line will be our trendline after.
2. Very Strong Bullish Trendline still Holds
The green dashed line in the chart is still very strong, as the price never went below it since Christmas the last year.
This trendline makes it hard for the awaiting H&S pattern to actually complete.
3. RSI is at somehow oversold levels
The RSI touched oversold levels already. If the RSI trendline(see chart) breaks along with the symmetric triangle, we can see a good uptrend.
4. The 75 Period SMA, former support, is now a tough resistance
The 75 MA formerly acted as support in the previous uptrend. After the price went below it and tested it for a pullback, the MA restricted any price movement from there.
5. Lower volume with the symmetric Triangle
As the symmetric triangle develops, the volume keeps getting lower. This is saying that Bitcoin traders are undecided. This means that the breakout will be very strong.
6. The Elliott wave maybe a Correction wave or a Trend Wave
If the green dashed line breaks down, we have a trend wave. If not, we have just a correction wave, meaning the steep dive form 41k was just a pullback.
Now, we just wait for the symmetric Triangle to break in either direction. Good luck, thank you!
Don't forget to like and follow for more
BITCOIN getting ready to take off again to all time high?Last consolidation period led to a break of 17k as called in last chart. Right now we are seeing the price consolidating again.
My bias is still bullish, and i believe there's a high probability that this is the last continuation pattern before BTC will reach all time high and hopefully break it.
Still holding long term.
Bitcoin: No Action At Range Low Good For Longs?U.S holiday price action appears to be playing it's part in Bitcoin's slow price action, but this doesn't change anything. Bitcoin is in a consolidation within a broader BULLISH trend since April. Price continues to probe range lows which does NOT provide any evidence of progress or TREND on our time frame of interest. Keep in mind weak markets BREAK supports, they don't maintain them for long periods. The 8500 area is the key support that we are referencing in order to anticipate the herd mentality and gauge risk. In this video I will further explain the probability and potential of the current price location and why we continue to manage our swing trade LONG.
There is a lot of confusion around the concept of "trend". It is actually a very subjective idea which should be rooted by the TIME FRAME that your strategy utilizes. For example, if you are only interested in a higher frequency of trades, small targets and tighter stops, then a small time frame is appropriate. If you are trying to gauge risk and participate in broader market moves (as in 1000s of points) then small time frames (less than 8 Hrs) will only blind you. Many traders will argue that the "trend" is bearish because of some random structure on a 1 hour chart, but that information carries no weight within the scope of OUR long ONLY swing trade strategy.
Testing the 8800 and 8900 areas is not even close to compromising the 8500 support. The fact that buyers continue to step in (tails on recent candles), can be interpreted as strength. As long as this entire range (8500 to 10,400) stays intact, it is likely to act a continuation pattern and since the larger trend is bullish, probability still favors a bullish move (higher lows lead to higher highs). Until this structure changes (like a break of 8500), judging it any other way on this time frame is just asking for lower probabilities. Slow markets like these require a LOT of PATIENCE, and a strong understanding of how price structure shapes expectations. The evidence that carries the most weight continues to point to a bullish outcome, but there is no way to know when this will unfold. A few minor pullbacks into the low of the range is nothing more than NOISE and should not be confused with a trend on this time frame. A surprise catalyst can come out of no where, and next thing you know everyone is "predicting" 20K again. If you want to win, you must be positioned ahead of the herd, not react with it. We will continue to hold our long from 9225 and if it gets stopped out, we will wait for a new signal to go long again (unless price breaks 8500).
Everyone is so bullish on Bitcoin it hurtsBitcoin has had an incredible recovery from the liquidation cascade/fire-sale back on March 12 which drove the price from 9150 to 3850 in a matter of days. From the lows, we pumped over 160% - insane. But now that everyone is super bullish, a slow bleed downwards wouldn't surprise me, especially considering that the trend seems well and truly over-extended at this point.
However there is no denying that we are in a local uptrend, or that the bulls have reclaimed an important level. There is a very real bullish case to still be made so I can't count that out. In either case I expect that we deviate from this range quickly, otherwise we risk spending a long time grinding sideways + lower. Max pain is usually the way with these markets now that I think about it.
So what is the chart saying?
The MACD is showing a massive bearish divergence. It was already over-extended at 7400, and now seems ridiculous to me.
We are in a rising channel which seems likely to breakdown soon, though we may see a small bounce/scamwick upwards first. If we can break 10k convincingly on a bounce here I'll certainly be jumping in long but I'll be watching closely in case it is a trap and I need to pull out. Otherwise it looks like more pain on the downside will be in order.
Bulls have completely failed to regain any control after the dip on Thursday and have been showing increasing weakness since we rejected the highs at 9900. 9300 has held great as an overhead resistance over the past 2 days, and until that changes, my bias is on the downside and I am positioned accordingly.
Target of a swing long from 10,000 will be to close 50% at 11,600 and 50% at 13,000 and see what happens there (if we get there).
Target of short trade will be 6,900 - will be very flexible depending how price reacts at certain levels.
It's 1am I need to go to bed.
Never over-leverage if you want to stay in this game.
Stay wary.
Trader/Investors must understand this process.......!Kindly comment with " Yes " for agree and "No" for disagree with this post:
Before the break-out, I've informed that " Breakout will give truck of Money. ..!". Exactly, we seen this statement was TRUE, didn't it? (End of idea link is added about this idea)
Let's talk step by step was happened here.
The Width of congestion area was equal to height of the price surged.
From my personal experience and the survey/observation I'm talking about this is almost the same area as price congestion in size of width and height after the price break. Let's try to explain in another words:
Horizontal width of congestion size = Vertical price move after break-out. (Generally, i noted that price moved away so far after breakout whenever congestion area is much longer.)
--> Let's talk little more deeper about CONGESTION area:
In the congestion area, accumulation or distribution process process. We will talk about accumulation only because, this was happened here.
Accumulation : smart money, money makers, huge fund-management, landlord of global investors whatever you called them they grab/connecting instrument(stocks, currency,etc) from retail investors in very slow motion because, they can smell insider upcoming news. After the completing this accumulation, news clear and price start to go away from the breakout area.
later i will try to explain you more deeper about it practically. Yes, obviously we can smell the process accumulation/distribution.
Weak Markets Don't Linger At Resistance. Bitcoin Is Not Weak.#Bitcoin continues to hold its higher prices which can be interpreted as BULLISH. All it needs is a catalyst to squeeze to the next major resistance in the 9K area. We continue to hold 1/3 of our original SWING TRADE position which triggered back in December, for its third target in the low 9Ks. The purpose of this evaluation is to share our insight and perspective as it relates to the actionable information derived from the ORDER FLOW of Bitcoin. Evaluating order flow offers practical clues about short term market intent which can be used to gauge general probabilities around specific market scenarios.
1. IF price decisively breaks 8325, and follows through beyond 8500, the low to mid 9Ks are likely to follow relatively quickly (short squeezes like this often unfold in a matter of hours thanks to short margin liquidations and new buyers).
2. As long as price can stay above the 7600 area, the minor consolidation breakout has a greater chance of occurring. A close below this higher low support can take price back to the 7K minor support zone. This is all about "IF" not WHEN.
3. There is a major resistance around the 9500 to 10,200 area. This zone is the HIGHEST risk, lowest probability location to take on new swing trade longs (but a great place to take profits). Usually AFTER the move takes place, people ask, "Is NOW a good time to buy?" which my response is, "Where were you at 7250?". There was a week and a half of noise and even cheaper prices following our long entry back in December. Think in probabilities, NOT LOGIC.
4. 7275 to 5464 still represents the HIGH probability location for bullish reversals. This means IF there is any revisit, (especially to the 6550 area), we will view this as another opportunity for swing trades and inventory accumulation. Price may not revisit this area again any time soon.
5. Although short term bullish momentum is now in play, we do not consider this market free of the corrective consolidation that is has been in since the June peak. Lack of follow through is still is still an equal possibility and our profit expectations will be adjusted in this way UNTIL Bitcoin proves otherwise. In other words, we will trade this like a Wave 2, until Wave 3 is in play (which requires a break of 10,300 AT LEAST).
6. The fact that price is lingering near the 8500 resistance area is a typical sign of strength (weak markets do not linger at resistance levels, they sell off). This minor consolidation break out can also prompt an alternate trade signal to go long upon the confirmation of a momentum continuation pattern like an inside bar.
Keep in mind these points represent part of the rationale that our decision making process is based upon. Timing markets over the short term requires knowing what information carries actionable value, and organizing it in a way that allows for a better sense of how ORDER FLOW is LIKELY to BEHAVE next. Order flow refers to price action based information that is either present or forward looking (trend lines, S&R lines, chart patterns, candlesticks, etc.). In isolation, this information carries little to no value and is why so many inexperienced traders dismiss it as "useless" and say things like "outside bars don't work".
Context and perspective come from knowing how these individual elements come together to define a range of REALISTIC outcomes. Overall, charts provide a record of human behavior and when part of a group, this behavior offers pockets of predictability, which can lead to opportunities for those who can identify the risk associated with these pockets.
Please Feed The Bears. Bitcoin Needs More Buying Pressure.Bitcoin price action has produced a clear bullish reversal pattern in a location where probability favors such a formation. The inverted head and shoulders, although not triggered yet, serves as a pretty good idea as to where this market is going over the next couple of weeks at least. A decisive close above the 7600 level, followed by 7950 should stimulate enough momentum to carry price to the next relevant resistance of 8500. I am sharing the following technical points to provide perspective, context and clarity for the community. This is also the information that we are using to guide our decisions for our recent swing trade long.
1. The recent 6850 area swing low not only establishes a higher low formation (higher lows often lead to higher highs), but it also serves as the right shoulder of a broad inverted head and shoulders formation that began to develop in November. A break and close above the 7950 area and this bullish reversal pattern is confirmed and in play.
2. Yesterday's candle (inside bar) has triggered a new buy signal once price took out 7400. Follow through continues to be limited because of the tendencies of a range bound environment, but reward/risk on the bigger picture clearly FAVORS LONGS.
3. A close above 7600, followed by 7950 is likely to stimulate a flurry of margin liquidations (shorts following their small time frame charts who are now caught). This buying pressure, along with break out buyers can take price to 8500 or even the low 9Ks in a matter of hours.
4. Bitcoin has been in a corrective consolidation since June (this is NOT a trend environment). The price structure since then is now showing the potential completion of a broad Wave 2 (relative to the 3150 to 14K impulse wave). IF Bitcoin confirms this (by taking out 10,300) then a broad Wave 3 is likely in play. Such a wave can take price to 20K and higher in a matter of weeks or months. This scenario also aligns well with the May mining reward halving event.
5. IF the 6800 higher low support is compromised for whatever reason, it will negate the current bullish scenarios outlined here, and call for adjusting expectations for a RANGE BOUND market to continue further. It is important to keep time frames and magnitude of expectations in perspective. A break of 6800 will NOT change the bigger picture trend to bearish.
6. Our profit targets will continue to sit in the mid 7Ks, 8Ks and low 9Ks. 10K is the next MAJOR resistance level, and if Bitcoin is going to produce a large magnitude fake out, that is where it is most likely to unfold. Our goal is to take smart risks and reduce them as much as possible. Exiting 1/3 of our position at each predetermined target accomplishes this goal. (Small bites are what to lead to a positive return over the long run, NOT home runs).
For those that watched my recent video update and have been following this swing trade, we got long about two weeks ago on a break of an inside bar at 7250. There has been a lot of noise and sell signals since then that have gone NO WHERE. The point is this: the effectiveness of trend following strategies is going to be subpar on the larger time frames because the expectations that they produce are not aligned with the type of environment Bitcoin is in at the moment. This means sell signals carry no weight because they are appearing near the LOW of a broad consolidation. Selling near range lows is low probability herd behavior.
Overall, timing is all about letting the market act first, and then adjusting to the new probabilities as they develop. Just like in Texas Holdem, the players who act early in a hand give away important information to those to act after them (who can then make more informed decisions). Letting the market act first allows you to capitalize on the "reactive" order flow, or those who trade on emotion and impulse. This reactive liquidity is made up of the participants who are willing to take the other side of high probability setups. If everyone operated in a rational way, overbought and oversold conditions would never exist and neither would any opportunity. Want to improve your results? Learn psychology.
Bitcoin: Adjusting To Out Of Play But Bullish Location.Bitcoin is stuck, but before you get too bearish, it is worth noting WHERE it is stuck. The 7K level is a minor support, but it is within a very broad support zone of 7275 and 5464. In the middle of the zone is the 6558 reversal zone boundary. These levels and areas are not made up, or randomly selected. They are a result of previous price action and are proportional to relatively broad movements in Bitcoin. The purpose of this article is to point out how we are interpreting recent price action, and adjusting in terms of strategy.
1. 7275 to 5464 is relative to the .618 of the 3150 to 14K impulse structure. This is a typical retrace are for corrective waves to complete (particularly Wave 2). The movement from 14K to 6800 is a corrective consolidation that we interpret as a Wave 2.
2. Lower highs continue to be established, but lower lows are not. The 6750 (recent swing low) is NOT that much different from 7250 (previous swing low). A bearish trend is defined by a series of lower highs AND lower lows. Until a major new low is established, the risk of short squeeze is HIGH.
3. In order for bearish momentum to take hold, and FOLLOW THROUGH, a decisive close above 7875 would provide confirmation. UNTIL this occurs, buy signals carry less weight.
4. In range bound, lack of follow though environments, particularly at attractive accumulation levels (like 7275 to 5464), position trades are much more efficient compared to swing trades. As long as the sizing is carefully managed, it is less likely to get shaken out or stopped out as a result of random price noise. Also if a short squeeze develops out of no where, there is no missing out on the move.
5. Bearish momentum usually unfolds QUICKLY and makes progress. Bitcoin is struggling to go lower just as much as it is to go higher. This is NOT characteristic of a bearish trend. (Want to see a recent bearish trend? See stock ticker CGC).
6. Price can test 6550 or even the 5500 level and STILL establish a broad HIGHER LOW formation. 3150 is the reference point. As long as Bitcoin maintains some stability in this range, it is offering wholesale prices. Keep in mind, this perspective is NOT for small time frame strategies that utilize time frames less than 8 hours.
We recently entered a swing trade at 7550 and got stopped out at 7025. After taking a few stops in a row, it is easy to lose confidence in a strategy, but that is the common mistake that leads to strategy jumping and inconsistency over the long term. How come we don't change our swing trade strategy? Well, because it has proven itself across multiple markets like stocks and forex. When a market is out of play, no strategy will work, and that is precisely why we trade price MOMENTUM, no matter what market.
Just like markets, strategies also go in and out of favor. While there is not enough momentum for swing trades at the moment, position trading or inventory management is still attractive (high probability location + strategic sizing) because it does not require such precise timing, momentum or attention. Is it possible for Bitcoin to go back to 3K? Sure and that is the risk you MUST accept and adjust for when managing inventory. How do you think the institutional players do it? By obsessing over 1 hour charts?