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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

BTCUSD – Key Decision Zone Forming Between 121.7K–122.3K | Bitcoin is currently retesting a key supply zone around 121.7K–122.3K, aligning with previous structure highs and imbalance. This zone will likely determine the next major intraday move. Market Outlook: 📊 Previous Day High: 123,841 – acts as upside liquidity target 🟨 Key Zone: 121.7K–122.3K (potential reaction area) 🧠 Scenarios: Bullish: Clean break + retest above 122.3K → targets 123.8K Bearish: Rejection from the zone → move back to 119.7K (previous day low) ⚖️ Bias: Neutral until breakout confirmation Smart traders will wait for a liquidity sweep + confirmation candle before committing. Stay patient — volatility incoming.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheWallstreetCapital
$BTCUSDT Analysis - Oct 10 | 4H Time FrameBINANCE:BTCUSD Analysis - 4H Hello and welcome to another analysis from the Satoshi Frame team! I’m Abolfazl, and today we’re going to analyze Bitcoin on the 4-hour timeframe. Bitcoin’s current all time high stands at $126,199! Price has tapped into a demand zone, which could potentially trigger a bullish move toward this high. This zone is worth the risk, and it’s recommended to look for buy positions on the 15-minute timeframe, targeting $130,000. See you in the next analyses! Stay tuned with the Satoshi Frame team...
Long
by Satoshimultiframe
ETH Game Plan – DLRMD ModelETH Game Plan – DLRMD Model 📊 Market Sentiment The FED has resumed its rate-cutting cycle with a 0.25% cut in September and two more expected in the coming months. Institutional liquidity inflows are accelerating as the U.S. officially adopts crypto as part of its reserves. While inflation remains elevated, a weakening labor market is pushing the FED to ease, channeling more capital into risk-on assets such as crypto. 📈 Technical Analysis ETH ran the weekly swing low and closed above, signaling a shift in structure. A strong daily structure break followed, forming a fresh daily demand zone. The first tap into this demand zone resulted in a solid rejection — confirming its validity. Afterward, price briefly deviated above the lower time frame bearish trendline, then retraced back, showing potential accumulation before the next leg up. 📘 Model to be used – HTF Demand w/ Liquidity Run & Max Discount Zone (DLRMD Model) 1-Identify the HTF trend and take setups only in that direction. 2-Mark the active HTF demand zone. 3-Confirm liquidity sweep within that zone. 4-Use Fibonacci retracement to locate the 0.75 max discount area. 5-Wait for LTF confirmation before entering. 📌 Game Plan I’ll be waiting for price to return and retest the daily demand zone, ideally running the 12H swing liquidity at $4,090 and tapping the 0.75 max discount zone around $4,050 before considering entry. 🎯 Setup Trigger 4H structure break confirmation after price taps the $4,050 level. 📋 Trade Management Entry: $4,050 (expected zone) Stoploss: Below the 4H swing low that breaks structure Targets: TP1: Bearish trendline retest (≈$4,445) TP2: All-time high (≈$4,965) Once TP1 is reached, I’ll move stoploss to breakeven and manage partials actively. 💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More setups and market insights coming soon — stay connected! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
Why traders are losing money? Position Size PurposeWhy traders are losing money Most traders do not lose because the market is hostile or because entries are bad. They lose because the size of each position is out of sync with account size, with volatility, and with a realistic pain threshold. They also stack correlated exposure until a normal downswing becomes a career ending drawdown. The fix is a repeatable sizing process that keeps losses small, keeps risk per trade constant across regimes, and caps total open risk across the book. Root causes of loss clustering Risk per trade that is too large for the real account balance that is available for trading Stops that ignore volatility so a quiet week and a fast week carry the same unit count while loss size swings wildly Portfolio heat that compounds across correlated positions in the same theme or factor Inconsistent exits so a written stop is moved or ignored after the position is open Scaling rules that add size before the trade earns the right to carry more risk A review loop that tracks money rather than R so results are not comparable across instruments One principle to anchor the lesson Risk lives in the distance between entry and stop. Size lives in how much money you are willing to risk on that distance. Everything else is detail. When you fix these two elements the account stops bleeding from one mistake and the equity curve starts to respect your personal pain limits. The unit formula in plain words Units equals Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Stop distance equals Entry minus Stop in price units For futures or forex convert the distance to money with tick or pip value before you divide Round the result to the venue step size Percent risk formula and worked example Set a realistic risk percent Pick a range between zero point two five and one point zero percent of account per trade If you are new stay closer to zero point two five If you are experienced and you follow rules under pressure stay near zero point five to one point zero Use only capital that is truly available for trading Define the stop with intent You can define a stop by price structure or by volatility. Structure is a level that invalidates the setup. Volatility is a multiple of the average true range. Both work if you keep the rule stable. The aim is not to predict a perfect level. The aim is to measure distance so you can compute size with precision and keep loss per trade constant in money terms. Volatility aware sizing When the average true range doubles you must expect larger swings. If you keep the same unit count the same entry to stop distance will cost twice as much. A simple way to neutralise this effect is to tie the stop to a multiple of the average true range and then let the unit count float. When volatility rises the unit count shrinks. When volatility calms the unit count grows. Risk per trade stays constant. Practice example Risk money equals one hundred Stop distance equals three point zero in a calm regime Units equals one hundred divided by three which is thirty three units rounded If volatility doubles and the stop distance becomes six point zero the new unit count becomes sixteen units rounded Loss per trade stays near one hundred in both regimes Portfolio heat in clear numbers Portfolio heat is the sum of risk money across all open trades as a percent of account. If you allow the sum to balloon during correlated trends you are betting the entire account on one theme. A simple cap keeps you in business. Set a heat cap between four and eight percent of account Count correlated positions as one theme for heat If a new trade would push heat above the cap you must reduce size or defer the trade Keep a cash buffer for slippage and gap risk Heat includes correlated risk. Keep combined open risk under your limit R multiple as the common unit R is the unit that equals your risk per trade. If you risk one hundred then one R is one hundred. A two R gain is two hundred. A one R loss is one hundred. Because R normalises money across instruments and timeframes you can compare strategies without confusion. When you review your trades in R the mind stops obsessing about price and starts focusing on process. Expectancy in words and numbers Expectancy is the average R result per trade. It depends on win rate and payoff ratio. You do not need equations to grasp it. You can compute it with simple mental math. Practice example A Win rate equals forty five percent Average win equals two point two R Average loss equals one point zero R For every ten trades wins contribute nine point nine R and losses subtract five point five R Expectancy equals four point four R per ten trades or zero point four four R per trade before fees Practice example B Win rate equals thirty five percent Average win equals three point zero R Average loss equals one point zero R For every ten trades wins contribute ten point five R and losses subtract six point five R Expectancy equals four point zero R per ten trades or zero point four R per trade before fees The shape of expectancy changes when volatility changes. If you keep risk per trade constant and let the unit count respond to stop distance expectancy measured in R will be more stable across regimes. That stability translates into better position control and calmer decision making. Why money management fails in practice Traders set a risk percent but do not compute units from entry and stop before the order They move the stop after position entry and invalidate the size calculation They add to losers because the entry feels almost right and average down risk with no plan They never reduce size after a loss streak so the book enters a feedback loop where a normal downswing becomes a spiral They treat wins as proof of skill and losses as anomalies rather than counting both in R and accepting variance A position sizing workflow you can follow every time Write the setup and the trigger in one line Define the stop with a structure rule or with a multiple of the average true range Measure the stop distance in price units Select the risk percent that fits your current equity and your mental state Convert the stop distance to money if the instrument uses ticks or pips Compute units as Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Round to the venue step size and check that the notional fits practical constraints Place the order only after the number of units is in the ticket and the stop is written Scaling with intent Scaling is not a trick to force a trade to work. Scaling is a way to stage risk through time. The rule is simple. Add size only after the trade earns the right to carry more risk. Reduce risk when momentum fades or when volatility rises. One simple scale plan Enter half size when volatility is rising or when the theme is crowded Add the second half only after the trade moves one R in your favour Move the stop to reduce open risk when the second half is added Do not exceed the heat cap across the book after the add Compute size. Check heat. Execute only if rules align Comparator versus buy and hold Buy and hold does not respect a personal pain limit. It lets drawdown float with price. A sized trade fixes the maximum loss in money terms at the start. The difference is not ideology. The difference is the choice to survive. Practice scenario Price falls ten percent after entry in a fast regime A buy and hold position shows a ten percent account drawdown if one position equals the entire account A sized trade with one percent risk shows a one percent account drawdown by design The sized trade can take many attempts because capital is preserved for the next signal Kelly fraction and optimal f cautions Kelly and optimal f are powerful in theory. They aim to maximise growth for a known edge. Real trading edges drift and sample sizes are small. Full Kelly creates deep drawdowns and can trigger a behavioural spiral. If you decide to use these methods treat the fraction as a ceiling rather than a target and remain near half Kelly or less. Always measure drawdown in R and reduce size after a loss streak. Loss streak protocol Loss streaks are part of variance. A simple protocol keeps them from damaging your decision cycle. After four consecutive losses reduce risk per trade by half Freeze adds and focus on clean entries only Review the last ten trades in R and tag any rule violations Return to the base risk percent only after a new equity high or after a full week of clean execution Heat management across themes The book is a living system. A theme can be a sector a factor a style or a macro driver. If four positions express the same theme treat them as one for heat. The market does not care that the tickers differ. Correlation in stress is the rule. The heat cap is your defence against that correlation. Fees and slippage discipline Small edges die from friction. If your average win is near one R and your average loss is near one R you must protect that edge by keeping fees and slippage small. Choose venues with adequate liquidity. Avoid market orders during news bursts. Use limit orders to control entry and exit where practical. Assume a realistic round trip fee in your backtests so that live results match expectations. Journaling that actually helps Your journal should capture rules and numbers rather than emotions alone. Use a compact template. Setup name and trigger Entry price and stop price Risk money and unit count Reason for the stop placement Exit reason and realized R Any deviation from the plan Practice drills to build fluency Speed matters during live markets. These drills train your sizing reflexes. Drill one. Percent risk to units Account equals twenty thousand Risk equals one percent which is two hundred Stop distance equals zero point eight Units equals two hundred divided by zero point eight which is two hundred fifty units Drill two. Volatility step change Risk equals one hundred fifty Stop at two average true range equals three point two which gives forty six units rounded If the average true range rises by fifty percent the stop becomes four point eight and units become thirty one rounded Loss per trade remains near one hundred fifty Drill three. Futures or forex conversion Risk equals three hundred Stop equals twenty ticks Tick value equals twelve point five Stop distance in money equals two hundred fifty Contracts equals three hundred divided by two hundred fifty which is one contract with a small buffer for slippage Drill four. Heat check Four open trades at one percent risk each looks like four percent heat If three of them are the same theme treat them as one for heat Effective heat is closer to three percent and a new trade in that theme should be deferred Checklist before every order Is the setup valid according to the written rule Is the stop defined by structure or by a multiple of the average true range Have you measured the stop distance correctly Is the risk percent chosen and written on the ticket Are units computed from Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Does the book stay under the heat cap after this order Are you in a loss streak that requires reduced size Common myths to retire Myth. Bigger size proves conviction. Reality. Bigger size proves you have abandoned process Myth. A tight stop is always better. Reality. A stop that ignores volatility will be hit by noise Myth. Averaging down improves price. Reality. Averaging down expands risk without proof that the idea is valid Myth. A few big winners will save the month. Reality. A few big losers can end the year How to adapt across timeframes The rules above are timeframe agnostic. Shorter timeframes require tighter execution and more attention to fees. Longer timeframes require more patience and a wider cash buffer for gaps. In both cases the math does not change. You measure distance. You set risk money. You compute units. You respect the heat cap. You review in R. Edge drift and regime change Edges do not vanish overnight. They drift when the crowd learns the pattern or when macro drivers shift. Your sizing process makes you resilient to drift. Because risk per trade is fixed a flat or negative edge bleeds slowly and gives you time to notice and step back. If you see expectancy in R slide over a thirty or fifty trade sample reduce size and review the rule set before you push the gas again. Putting it all together A trader who sizes by feel can enjoy a series of quick gains and then give it back in one week. A trader who sizes by rule can be wrong half the time and still grow steadily. The difference is not superior prediction. The difference is the choice to define loss before entry to respect volatility and to cap heat so a cluster of normal losers does not become a personal crisis. A compact template you can copy Setup name and timeframe Entry trigger in one sentence Stop rule. Structure or two average true range or another clearly written rule Account and risk percent Stop distance in price units and in money Units computed and rounded to step size Heat check across the book and across the theme Planned targets in R and exit rules Bottom line Risk per trade must be small and stable Stops must respect volatility Portfolio heat must remain inside a hard cap Review results in R and adjust size after loss streaks Let the unit count float with volatility so risk money per trade remains constant Education Education and analytics only. Not investment advice. Test every rule with historical data before risking capital. The lesson below is theory with practice drills you can apply to any liquid instrument and any timeframe.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by exlux
Bitcoin Roadmap Before FOMC Minutes – Correction or New ATH?Today, we have one of the most important macro events — the FOMC Meeting Minutes Let’s quickly understand what it is and why it could shake the crypto market What are FOMC Minutes? They’re the detailed notes from the last Federal Reserve meeting, showing what members discussed about interest rates, inflation, and the economy. Markets carefully read every line to find hints about future rate cuts or continued tightening. Why does it matter for Bitcoin? When the Fed turns dovish (hinting at lower rates), risk assets like Bitcoin usually rally But when the tone is hawkish (worried about inflation), investors move to cash or bonds, causing crypto to dip. Let’s take a look at Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) on the 4-hour timeframe . Before analyzing the chart, let’s quickly review what defines a strong uptrend : 1-Higher Lows(HL): Each new low should form above the previous one, showing that buyers are stepping in earlier each time. 2-Higher Highs(HH): Each new high should be higher than the last, confirming that bullish momentum is still in control. 3-Structure Respect: The new low should not break below the previous high — if it does, it doesn’t necessarily mean the trend is over, but it indicates a weakening of the bullish structure. Based on the points above, Bitcoin failed to form a new Higher Low(HL) during the past 24 hours, and the previous high was retested . These signals indicate a loss of bullish momentum, suggesting that we might see at least a short-term correction from a technical perspective. Bitcoin has already started to bounce back nicely from the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) and is currently trading in a Heavy Resistance zone($124,474-$117,900) . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that with the formation of a Lower Low(LL) , Bitcoin has completed at least a series of impulsive waves , and we can now expect corrective waves . I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($120,779-$119,957) before the FOMC Meeting Minutes start and could continue to rise or correct depending on the tone of the FOMC Meeting Minutes . Note: You should note that these days, Bitcoin has a higher correlation with the SPX500( SP:SPX ) index than before, so if there is a sudden movement in Bitcoin, one of the reasons could be a sudden movement in the SPX500. Do you think this bullish move could lead to a new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin again!? Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $124,350-$123,244 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $126,813-$125,000 CME Gap: $111,355-$109,915 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
17
Bitcoin STRONG Weekly Bounce - What's Next?Hello BTC Watchers 📈 📢 Bitcoin was trading right on top of a crucial support zone. But the price has successfully bounced in the weekly and made a strong comeback from the support zone. The weekly moving averages The daily moving averages This is telling for a number of reasons. In the weekly we see a strong bounce above the moving averages as well as in the daily, and in the daily we had just bounced back from a correction which took us to the 100d MA (which is the general zone for a correction, or at least a wick towards that area. This indicate that in the short and longer term, the chart is looking up and bulls are in control. What are you thoughts, new ATH or just a fakeout?
Long
by Crypto-Check-
13
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #191👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s get into Bitcoin analysis. The market is still in a ranging phase, so let’s take a look at today’s triggers together. ⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe In this timeframe, Bitcoin is still consolidating and has formed a new range high around 124,094. ✔️ Right now, the price is near the bottom of the range box it has created and is on the verge of breaking below it. ✨ If the bottom of the box breaks, price could move toward lower levels. 📊 If selling volume continues to increase, the downward move could extend further, and Bitcoin may correct to even deeper zones. 🎲 However, if this move turns out to be a fake breakdown, and we see reversal structures such as a V-pattern, we could look for a long trigger. 🔑 I still don’t see Bitcoin as being in a downtrend. In my view, every correction the market makes is still healthy and supports the continuation of the broader bullish structure, helping maintain the strength of upcoming legs. ⭐ For now, since momentum has turned bearish on the lower cycles, I don’t have any new triggers to give based on my strategy. In this phase of the market, I prefer to wait until price builds more structure. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
6
Bitcoin (BTC), End of Cycle Season Based on Cycle DurationBINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin appears to have already formed its peak within the current bullish cycle and may now be preparing for a correction. Alternatively, if BTC makes another attempt to reach a new all-time high within October, that period could mark the final peak of this cycle. Looking at historical data, Bitcoin has shown a repeating pattern — an uptrend lasting approximately 3 years and 11 months (1,065 days) from the bottom, followed by a downtrend of about 1 year (365 days) from the peak. During down cycles, the cycle low has typically formed between the EMA 50 and EMA 100. Backtesting monthly charts shows that Bitcoin often breaks below the EMA 50, finds support above the EMA 100, and then breaks through the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling the start of a new bullish cycle. Become an early follower and be part of the journey.🚀 I am Korean and I used Google Translate.
Short
by Now_Trading
BITCOIN IDEA Bitcoin is still stuck in a sideways range. KEY level bullish is at 122,300, and right now price isfilling orders near 121,183 daily cap. That means we’re kind of in the middle — not super strong, not super weak. The daily trend is still up, but price is pulling back a bit to fill orders. If Bitcoin starts dropping, 118,543 is the next big level to watch. If it holds and bounces, we might see another push higher. If it breaks, we could fall deeper into that lower area. The U.S. dollar is strong this week → makes it harder for BTC to move up. Jack Dorsey (the Twitter guy) just dropped a new Bitcoin wallet — cool for long-term use. So for now: stay patient, watch 121K and 118K zones, and don’t chase candles.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN How low can it pull back??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) got rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line we mentioned on our last analysis and is already pulling back. The question is how far can it drop? Today we expand on that analysis by applying the Fibonacci Channel on the Higher Highs trend-line. Instantly we can see that the Channel Up has two almost perfectly symmetrical Bullish Legs (+17.30% and +17.61% respectively). The key on this pattern is the 4H MA100 (red trend-line). Every time BTC broke below it since May 29, the decline extended all the way to at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the 1D RSI also got rejected on its Resistance Zone, we expect a pull-back towards its Support Zone and if the 4H MA100 breaks, further extension towards the 1D MA50. We estimate a potential target to be $116000, which is marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, where the August 02 bounce took place. Needless to say, a break (and 1D candle close) above the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line), invalidates any pull-back scenario and, as mentioned previously, constitutes a bullish break-out to a new pattern/ rally. What do you think will happen next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot