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Bitcoin Enters Greed at Major Resistance—Bull Trap or Breakout!?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is currently trading near a key resistance zone($102,000-$97,900), overlapping with a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) and the 100_SMA(Daily), which makes this area technically sensitive. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has finally entered the Greed zone after several weeks, suggesting improving sentiment—but also raising caution from a contrarian perspective. Bitcoin appears to be attempting a breakout above the $95,000 level, which is a major psychological and technical trading zone. However, this breakout has not been supported by strong volume, which weakens its reliability. From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin seems to be in the final stages of completing the main Wave C. The internal structure of this Wave C resembles an Expanding Ending Diagonal, a pattern that often appears near the end of corrective or terminal moves. One of the main external risks for Bitcoin and other risk-on assets is the potential escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could intensify in the coming days and increase market volatility. As long as Bitcoin fails to stabilize and hold above the $102,000 level, there is still a strong possibility that the recent rally over the past few weeks is corrective in nature, rather than the start of a new impulsive uptrend. In that case, Bitcoin could resume a deeper pullback. First Target: $94,023 Second Target: Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $93,520-$92,580 Stop Loss(SL): $100,823/$102,143(Worst) CME gap: $94,790-$94,415 CME gap: $88,720-$88,120 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $87,125-$86,000 What’s your view on Bitcoin? Has Bitcoin already started a new bullish trend, or should we still expect another corrective move? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), Daily time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
23
Bitcoin back in the fight and under pressure. MAJOR resistance While we all remain ever so Bullish and LONGS increase, we REALLY need to remember just where Bitcoin PA is Right now. In an area that could very easily turn into a Bear Trap, as it did in 2021 Why could this happen? WE ARE UNDER MAJOR RESISTANCE. Why ? Looking at the chart justt above, we can see that rising Trend line..This is NOT a Weak line. Here is the same chart zoomed out. To Cross this line and remain above it Will be just the First Step towards a new ATH. The MAJOR Wall is as we get near that 100K -> 106K line. Remember this Chart ? The Blue Arc of Resistance. The One thing that has rejected EVERY Bitcoin ATH since Bitcoin started. This line MUST be crossed but is Obviously HUGELY STRONG A Closer View of where we are now on this chart. So, that current green candle we know is just under that Cycle line of resistance mentioned earlier. The next step is that 50 SMA ( Red, Just around where we see that Blue Arc. AND we see PA in a Squeeze. We have come back up to this and approach a new APEX around end of March 2026. PA always reacts before the APEX> We now have PA snadwiched between the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA ( Blue ) That 100 is also around that LONGGGGG term line of support We really do NOT want to loose that support. But this may happen if we do not break through that Blue Arc. But we have talk of New beginnings for Bitcoin...... New Cycle patterns appear to be forming Super Cycles are possible as we see signals that the 4 year cyce pattern maybe ending,,Yet to be proved. And this could happen with out Major change to long term PA patterns. This would NOT involve dropping out of the Area PA has been in since 2017 PA can drop as low as 60K before long term Channrl is Lost. So, here we are, New patterns maybe forming and we will not know for a Long time yet. Proof of change is onlly seen afterwards Should PA break over that Blue Arc, It MUST be used as support after. Fasinating Times......Watch that 50 Month SMA closely. We Break that, Off we go So, we wait
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Quick Bitcoin DAILY Bullish moves continue, now testing support Strong moves by Bitcoin so far this week and potential for more. PA is taking a breather ,as it needs to and will come back down and test that Dotted line as support. This same Trend line was used in September 2024 to push Bitcoin up to New Highs. This 4 hour chart shows us more detail Would be SO VERY Bullish for PA to come back here and test that line as support and hold it..... Can it do that? My opinion is YES but we do have some very strong resistance over head, in many forms. It maybe Good if PA sits on top of this line for a while....And it may do so, as it cools off. The Daily RSI RSI not over bought yet but in an area that shows RSI could do with Cooling and it has turned down slightly...It may continue to do so. The Daily MACD This is one I am watching CLOSE> See that descending line that has rejected MACD twice already. It may do that again....and as we get nearer the end of the month, I am wondering which way this will go The Month candle is currently Green and is statistically, likely to remain that way, However, this could change very easily should we loose this line and PA looses the Bulish sentiment. So, remain Alert and have a plan.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Ranges as Middle East Tensions Raise Sell-Off RiskBitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has experienced both bullish and bearish moves over the past few days under the influence of various news events, resulting in a clear ranging structure. One key factor that must be considered for Bitcoin and other risk assets is the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This situation can act as a catalyst for sudden sell-offs across Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near resistance lines, as well as the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($93,150-$92,970), and has reacted precisely to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin appears to be completing a Double Three Correction (WXY) within this short-term range. I expect Bitcoin to make another attempt toward the lower line of the ascending channel. If this level breaks, we should be prepared for a deeper decline toward the Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage zone($90,360-$89,360). First Target: $90,773 Second Target: $89,903 Stop Loss(SL): $90,923 Points may shift as the market evolves CME gap: $88,720-$88,120 What do you think about Bitcoin in the short term? I’d love to hear your thoughts! Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $87,125-$86,000 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
29
Quick 2 chart 4 hour BITCOIN UPDATE ] BULLISHMain chart shows that BTC PA has pushed well above the Blue line of long Term resistance / Support and now could come back down and test as support. This could easily happen and we will see why when looking at the next chart- 4 hour Linear BTC chart PA has come up and has hit the Fib circle I been talking about for the last couple of days. PA has the ability to push through but it may not, and if not, we could see PA drop, Firstly to the 4.618 Fib Extension @ 90400 usdt and if that fails, maybe to the Red 236 Fib circle....around 87K BUT if the Bulls get us above this Fib circle, then we face the rising line of resistance at arounf 95K...That one could be tough We will have to wait and see...But the BULLS are here for sure
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Quick Bitcoin Update- 4 hour chart shows PA is STUCK Bulls once again rejected off that Long Term line Maybe the Bulls allowed this till we get the USa inflation figures later today The 4 hour MACD shows plenty of room to move higher Same story on the 4 hour RSI And despite a this short term Bullish possibilities, I do remind you, we may only be repeating what happened in 2021 after the Nov ATH, where we Went down, had a push higher, just before dropping lower. That may not happen again, we simply do not know BUT it is a Very good idea to be ready for all occasions This weekly Bitcoin chart is a simple version of that There are so many more similarities... but here, see how the 50 SMA ( RED) began turning down after the ATH as PA crossed it.....The same has happened again. But, this time, PA is nearer the 100 SMA ( BLUE ) and using t as support. So, we still wait for PA to move higher, just be ready incase it does not remain higher......
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Quick Bitcoin Daily & 4 Hour- remains Bullish with Wall overhead The Daily chart shows us how PA has used the Fib Circles and how we are heading towards another one in the near Future that may, as mentioned yesterday, push PA into a Squeeze with the an apex around end of month...The 4.618 Fib Extension is the horizontal line, that has been acting as support. PA Always reacts before the Apex and this move may have begun. The 4 hour shows more On this chart we see that the Fib circle will be met around the 91K - 93K mark This 4 hour chart shows us how PA is also fighting this Trend line. That Blue line has been long term support and we are up against it right now, trying to turn it back into support. THIS is the Wall we need to Get over. As you can see, that blue line has been Support a LONG time and the fact we lost it is a little worrying. We need to get this Back.... Important times ahead.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN'S TIGHT SQUEEZE ABOUT TO EXPLODE, WHICH WAY ?Bitcoin has been trapped inside the bearish flag after a failed attempt to breakout of the Bearish Pennant on the daily chart. Currently at the time of this publication, price is hugging the 20 EMA after retrace from the Bollinger upper band. Until price breaks out to either side of the 20EMA (DAILY MIDDLE BAND OF THE BOLLINGER BAND) price is locked in a very tight squeeze on the 4 hour timeframe. A candle open and close above $91,500 would confirm another attempt to price target of $97k and $102k. A candle open and close below $89k would also confirm a break down to retest the $80k and $78k price target. Note: In a Bollinger Band squeeze, no one can confidently tell which way the breakout will go but a few clues I will be watching out for is on the hourly and 4 hour momentum and RSI. If these start to increase the likelihood for upside increases and if the show divergences then the likelihood to the downside also increases. At the end of the day Price action and Volume don't lie therefore a breakout of either sides of the Bollinger Band on Great Volume will confirm our next targets. A little patience will not hurt but protect your account. Thanks for visiting my publications and have a great trading week.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by RICHINVESTOR
Bitcoin 4 hour shows us potential Squeeze incoming- The desxcending line is the 17.618 Fib circle....the 17th of this Cycle and is nased o January 2023. The Horizontal line is the 4.618 Fib extension, again, based in January 2023 The Apxe of this "Triangle" is Mid week next weel and as I always remind you, PA ALWAYS REACTS BEFORE THE APEX> This is a Zoomed out 4 hour This shows how PA has been around this Horizontal Fib line for a while now.... We need to remain above it..... If we loose it, the Mid 80K area is a likely Target.... Crucial days again
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Monday morning BITCOIN Daily Update- Big day maybe.............. We got that push higher from Bitcoin that was talked about on Friday but it is now up against some tough resistance. That Blue line is what we need to Cross and hold as support if PA is to move higher towards that expected New ATH this Quarter. The weekly chart shows some of this long Term trend line. AS you can see, this blue line was used to launch PA up from the Bear Low in Jan 2023 PA currently sits BELOW this line. A Rare Thing The Daily Bitcoin chart THIS is the target this week, to get back over that line..... It is Crucial. The Daily MACD MACD has leveled out and so has the histogram. This is Bullish as it shows the Bulls Are there, holding things level and NOT dropping and letting the Bears take it all back. The Daily RSI RSI continues to climb and back above its own Avaerage. Bullish but we need to watch that line above, the solid descending line has rejected RSI a number of times now. ( not shown ) I remain confident that Bitcoin CAN move higher, it is just a matter of waiting and seeing if the Bulls can beat the Bears on a longer term. In the short term, we have this........... The 4 hour Bitcoin chart See the Wicks that go above the blue line...that shows the Bulls pushing PA pver that line of resistance and the Bears saying "NO" and pushing it back below. THIS is the fight this week We need to get above this line or face a deeper Drop Stay safe and be nice to each other.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Roadmap — Short-Term Bounce Before ContinuationAs I expected in the previous idea , Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to decline from the upper line of the ascending channel and reached its targets (full target). Bitcoin is currently near the support zone($90,960-$89,220) around the lower line of the ascending channel and the Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($89,125-$88,670). From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Bitcoin has completed a zigzag corrective pattern at the top of the ascending channel, and we should now expect a corrective wave. However, this corrective wave might still include a temporary upward movement. Considering the increasing tensions in global affairs, especially between Russia and the U.S. in recent hours, and the conditions of the S&P 500 index ( FX:SPX500 ), we can still expect a bearish trend for Bitcoin. I expect that after a short-term bullish movement in the coming hours, Bitcoin will once again begin to decline. This decline could involve breaking the lower line of the ascending channel, the support zone, and filling the CME gap($88,720-$88,120). We can first look for a long position, and if we find a trigger, we can take a short position. What do you think about Bitcoin in the short term? I’d love to hear your thoughts! Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $87,125-$86,000 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $92,620-$92,040 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $94,630-$93,920 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $98,480-$96,970 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
15
Bitcoin Daily & 4 Hour - Weekend outlook - Strength exists but.. I posted this chart a few days ago as we were coming back to test that long term Blue trend line for support. We lost that and the 4 hour chart shows us that the Bulls have retried claiming it and Lost.....for now. 4 Hour chart BTCUSD Here we see that attempt rejection and the possibility of a drop back down to 88K -> 86K Initialy, this could look bad and we need to remember, it may be.....But...... The 4 hour MACD is still falling Bearish MACD & Signal line below Neutral - but look at how the Histogram is White and the Bars are getting smaller. Bears loosing strength The drop may be slowing down. Longer term daily MACD Still plenty of room to move higher though the Histogram is lagging behind the 4 hour obviously. Remember, we get FOUR 4 hour histogram bars to a single daily And we still have BULLISH signals in the SOPR chart These little flags on the line keep confirming the Bullish idea SO over all, we do have BULLISH sentiments for the weekend with potential for a continued dip till the 4 hour MACD turns Bullish again....Maybe Sunday, Monday. Have a Good Weekend and be noce to people..it costs nothng
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daily update - support retest failed but all not lost PA came back down to retest the previous resistance and it failed as support. Bulls have caught the fall for now and we wait to see what happens today. PA currently sitting on a line of Support on the VRVP That is a shorter term 4 hour chart showing more details for the near term The Orange dash line is the Value Area High. Hopefully this wil hold. Below that, we have the POC, Point of Control at 87500 area. The 4 hour MACD We can see the MACD has fallen below neutral and the histogram shows that fall not enfing soon. Lets see what happens when IF the Red signal line hits neutral. The Daily MACD We can also see the daily MACD turning over a little as the Histogram has turned white for 2 days A lot points towards PA maybe dropping back to the High to Mid 80K mark but I think we may see that reversed a little today. We Just have to wait and See..... Time always Tells
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Is Bitcoin Repeating the 2021 Post ATH sequence ? - Possibly I first posted this chart last year, highlighting how PA has some similarities with the 2021 ATH Runs. A Quick Recap, Both 2021 and now have an early ATH, a retreat, a push higher to a New ATH and then a deeper Dive. Both had Divergences in play Both the 2021 and 2025 ATH's are within the 0 to 0.236 Fib retracement Fib lines. From the First ATH to the Low of the retreat, Both went to the 236 Fib line before pushing to a new ATH We do have to wait and see if this does play out again but what is interesting is that the ATH to next high in 2021 / 2022 was 147 days Should this happen again, that puts us around beginning of March.....which is a Moment of interest on a number of charts, with a price range around 95K - 105K usd The Crucial point in this PA is IF the 236 Fib lines gets broken or not. Should this happen, where would we go ? Impossible to say for sure but we should all remember the pressure and rising interest rates that were applied in the FIAT banking system , that rekt many large influential Companies and the stupidity of FTX. These things applied negative pressure to Bitcoina nd Crypto, driving the Bear deeper. Providing this does not happen again, we may stop at the 382 Fib line, around 54K - 57K but that is My assumption and I will have to react if we get there... For now, I am watching that 236 Fib line around 77K USD as a trigger line. And the 95K - 105K usd as a Rejection area. Time will Tell
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
3
Quick BITCOIN Daily update - Looking Very Good BULLISH As was mentioned yeaterday, PA had got through that Blue line of resistance. It is now testing it repeatably as support. The 4 hour chart shows this Better We may remain here till the 4 hour MACD finds Support. As we can see on the MACD, thismaybe very soon or in a Day or so If that line does noy hold for the MACD, we can expect MACD to reach for Neutral The Daily MACD is still around Neutral and rising Bullish What is VERY interesting is how SOPR has flashed BULLISH also, 2 days after it flashed a warning for the BEARS> The Orange Diamond......BULLISH Lets GOOOOOOOOOOO
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Pumps With Gold & S&P — But Is a Pullback Coming First?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started the new week with bullish momentum, pumping alongside Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) and the SPX500 Index( SP:SPX ). At the moment, Bitcoin is trading within a resistance zone($94,840-$93,020), close to the upper line of the ascending channel, while also moving around the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($94,970-$94,300). From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Bitcoin is in the process of completing microwave 4 of the main wave C. My expectation is a minimum pullback toward the Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($92,190-$91,610) and the nearby support zone($90,960-$90,090). From that support zone($90,960-$90,090), we can look for a potential renewed bullish move. Note: If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, a sudden and sharp drop in Bitcoin is possible. Note: If Bitcoin breaks and holds below the support zone($90,960-$90,090), we should be prepared for a deeper downside continuation. Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $87,140-$86,210 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $98,480-$96,970 CME Gap: $91,595-$90,530 CME Gap: $88,720-$88,120 First Target: $90,029 Second Target: $90,867 Stop Loss(SL): $96,223(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
31
Bitcoin Stuck in a Holiday Range — CME Gap Below?During the Christmas period, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) didn’t exhibit strong momentum and has been moving within a range. Bitcoin is currently near the resistance zone($90,960-$90,090) and the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($91,840-$90,920). From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Bitcoin has completed the Double Three Correction(WXY). I expect that given the weekend and generally lower trading volume at this time, Bitcoin may struggle to break the resistance zone($90,960-$90,090) and could begin to decline, potentially filling the CME Gap($88,720-$88,120). If BTC breaks the support lines, we can expect further declines to the support zone($87,050-$86,420). Note: Additionally, two important trading levels to watch for Bitcoin are $90,300 and $87,830. What are your thoughts? Do you think Bitcoin will continue its trend into 2026, or should we prepare for a correction? I’d love to hear your opinion! Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $87,110-$86,020 First Target: Support lines Second Target: Support zone($87,050-$86,420) Stop Loss(SL): $91,880 Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
47
The week ahead for Bitcoin shows a tough fight but BTC is strong Bitcoin is currently moving higher with a very measured series of Steps that enabled PA to break through a tough 236 Fib Circle Now PA is heading towards an intersection of a 618 Fib circle and a near 3 year old trend line that has Strength. The problem for PA is that trend line is acting as Resistance currently and the intersection is on or around Friday. ( Arrow ) If PA slides up under that trendline till the intersection, PA will HAVE to react and break through that intersection or Face being pushed lower by the Fib Circle. SO, Does PA have the strength ? The Daily MACD certainly does The MACD line ( yellow ) has crossed above neutral and so we have the ability to continue to rise a long way. As we see, the Rise has been steady and Smooth. This BBTrend indicator also shows us how the BUKKS are gaining strength also But we do need to have a level of Caution on our hands here. The Vertical line on the BBtrend chart above is the date of that intersection we talked about above. PA COULD GET REJECTED - We can see how the Histogram on the BBTrend is rising, heading towards Bullish cross over but until that happens...we meed caution. The Longer Term MACD looks favourable but with a possible warning. MACD is down low, Around Over Sold. It has been a Long time since MACD was down here...It was July 2022 infact The weekly BTC chart below shows us what happened then 6 weeks of Rise, a Pause and then a further drop of 17% till we continued to push higher. There is no guarentee any of this will happen but I think it is worth knowing, this week is yet another week of decision making....... Welcome back to Work HAHA
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Is Bitcoin about to Flip GOLD ? Short term, maybe ! Above we see the Bitcoin DAILY chart and PA has just reclaimed a line of support. This line of support is crucial and has been used previously to push higher. Follow the Blue Line on this Bitcoin Weekly chart below to see the use of support. On the main chart above, we can see how PA Lost This support but has now risen above...But this line will need to be retested as support Before we can fully trust it. However. Signals exist that Bitcoin is getting stronger again. The SOPR chart below shows us that a Warning has been issued in a Bear Market. At the Base of the chart, we see the BEAR Warning with the Red flags and at the Top of the chart we can see the Red Diamond, showing a BEAR environment exists. That Yellwo Circle, top right, is a "Caution in Bear Market" signal......showing BULLISH momentum exists. So why could this mean that BTC is about to outperfom GOLD ? Initialy, the BTC XAUt (gold ) chart below offers some ideas. BTC is on the Lower trendline of that descending channel and the potential exists for BTC to rise from here., providing that PA does not loose thatline of support. Is that likely ? Where is GOLD ? Gold has been retreating and has, as we can see on that charts below, Lost a line of support. The chatr below is GOLD USD daily, zoomed out Notice the line of resistance Gold struggled to get over since before May 2024. Lets zoom back into this chart As we see, GOLD has not only fallen back under that long term line of resistance, it is also below a Fib extension. Gold is facing Headwinds. The Geopolitical situation may effect all this of course But this is worth watching I feel. Even if Bitcoin takes the High road and outperforms Gold, I Still feel Upmost Caution is required once we get to around 95K to 100K as I do feel that PA has th epotential to drop Lower again, repeating the Pa from after the Nov 2021 ATH....................OR we may just enter a Super Cycle.. Things HAVE changed.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Monthly Bitcoin Candle Colour Closes since 2011 - December closeDecember closed RED If you have been following these posts over the months, you will know we have been following a colour sequence that has lasted 11 Months. This has NEVER happened before in Bitcoin History and it repeats the beginning of the 2023 Recovery / leading to Bull Run. However. the Red December close ends that sequence.... As mentioned last month, The Red candle was the highest probability. There were only 2 choices as to trying to predict the December Candle and the small RED candle was the better option..Because it may point to PA repeating what happened in January 2023, when Bitcoin came out of a Bear market. This small red candle is the same size as the one we Had in December 2022. Both the preceding November Red candles in 2022 and 2025, were the same size at around -28% Dec 2022 was -10,6% Dec 2025 is -11.6% Remarkable similarities but only for 2 candle sequence so far. Should this repeat the Mov. Dec 2022 and January 2023 pattern, we may expect the possibility of a large Green January. The chances of us repeating that left box again are very VERY Slim, Mostly as we have just done so for 11 months previously..BUT statisticaly, Januarys are Green more often than Red. Zoom into the main chart But, lets be realistic, if we are in a a BEAR Market, then a RED January is highly likely,as in 2022 ( left dashed box) , But....... If we look at the Dashed Box From JULY 2021 to the 2021 Nov ATH and then to Jan 2022, we have got a series of 2 x Green, Red, Green, 3 X Red ( the last Red candle was JANUARY 2022) We have just done the same from June 2025, a month earlier, so our most recent 3rd Red candle is December 2025 ( right dashed box ). In 2022, the candle after the 3rd red was Green...that, again points towards a Green January for us. IF WE FOLLOW PATTERN and it needs to be remebered, that this price action was a brief pause in the Deeper Bear that was yet to arrive. The chances of us having a Red January and so making 4 Red candles in a Row is also slim. but not impossible. Previously, we have only ever had 4 Red Candles ( or more) groupings :- ( Arrowed on chart ) August to Nov 2011, (previous PA unknown) July to October 2014 August 2018 to January 2019 ( 6 months ) These were in a Bear Market. But in 2019, this was followed by 5 months of Green. Previous JANUARY closes are 8 Green to 6 Red 4 of those Green Closes were after 2 or More Red months previous. 2 of the Red Closes were after 2 or more Red Months previously. This also points towards a higher chance of a Green January. 7 of those Green January closes has a Higher price in the year, than the closeing January candle price. 5 were followed by a Green Febuary All 6 of the Red January closes are followed by a small green Febuary HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daily facing strong resistance but with Ability Those that have been following my posts know that I watch Fibonacci circles and that the Red ones are 236 Fib Circles, usually strong resistance / support. And as you can see, Bitcoin is just below a strong one right now. See how, previously, it acted as strong support, then once lost, it has been strong resistance, We saw that 2 days ago when a Strong Green candle tried breaking through a point of lower resistance. usually found where a Fib circle crosses a Fib Extension ( in this case the 4.618). Rejection off that point was strong and the result was a Red daily candle with a small body and a long Wick, The Bears pushed PA down firmly So now we find ourselves getting into a tight squeeze, with local support just below and the Red 236 Fib circle dropping down from above. The Apex of this squeeze is in Mid January 2026 and we all know, PA will react BEFORE that Apex. Do we know in which direction it will go ? NO but we can get some ideas. We talked about how the Bears pushed PA down recently, But the BBTrend indicaror shows us some hope. This indicator was developed by the same man that made Bollinger bands. To simplify this explanation, when the Histogram is below 0, it is BEARISH and above is BULLISH We can see how the Bears are Loosing traction and we are becoming more and more Bulllish. It has to be said, there is no guarantee that we will Rise above Zero but things are looking good. So what else has a good outlook here.? The Daily RSI is Rising. And has a lot more Room to climb, so the potential strength does exist. The Daily MACD Still rising Bullish and below Neutral and so, again, the potential for a stronger, sustained Move does exist. This is reflected in the weekly MACD The Weekly MACD is turning slowly from Over Sold but what is truly exciting is that the Weekly MACD NEVER ranges Low, it always climbs and so we CAN expect an increase in Price to some extent. In reality, this could rise a little and drop again but that has never really happened on a weekly. I think we are in a great position for at least 2 months, maybe longer. But I could be wrong we will have to wait and see. Happy New Year
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal