Bitcoin Monthly- IF in Bear, What has marked the End previously Bitcoin - What shows us we are near or on the Bottom? THIS DOES
Bitcoin Monthly Chart
50 SMA RED
100 SMA BLUE
The 50 Month SMA was tested by the End of Bear Markets in 2015 and and 2019 and marked the bottom. PA Bounced
PA fell through it when tested in 2022 and PA found support on a long term trend line.
On this chart, since the 50 Month SMA came into being, it has only been lost on 4 occasions and Only Once for longer than a month.
See Arrows on charts above
* On a Wick down in August 2015
* On a Wick down in March 2020 ( Covid)
* For an 8 Month period in the DEEP Bear market were companies like 3 Arroes, Celcious and FTX collapsed due to external pressure and stupidity
* And a small candle down in September 2023
The Dashed Red lines are showing the current 50 Month SMA price of around 57K usdt. and projected path
PA is not testing that yet as it usualy does at the end of a Bear.
As and When we get there, this may lasts no longer than a month.. but that is not a guarantee.
To me, this is simply showing us were we are in this Market.
IF this is a BEAR Market, We are NOT Near the Bottom or on the Bottom .
PA is however on that long term line of support. the November candle wicked down to it and bounced
Already in December, we have done the same.
On a weekly chart, we can see how the 50 was lost and PA is now testing the 100, just above the long term support.
This cycle, that trend line has been Very important in the early stages of recovery from the 2022 Bear
If this is just a correction, we could be near a decision point as we watch that 100 Weekly SMA and see if PA can hold above it.....->
So, IF we are in a Bear Market and not just a Correction, we may have a LONG way to go yet. Down to that 50 Month SMA.
As we have seen in the past, This Month candle can Wick down Deeply. So if you are greedy enough, or stupid enough to be using Leverage. Make sure you are ready.
Or have the Dynamics of BTC PA changed now.?
We will have to wait and See.
