Phemex Analysis #109: Where does Bitcoin (BTC) Go Next?!Last Friday—October 10, 2025— PHEMEX:BTCUSDT.P endured a historic flush. In a matter of hours, price slipped from the low-$120Ks into the low-$100Ks as leverage unwound across venues. It looked dramatic, but the post-mortem reads more like a broad‐based deleveraging than a structural failure. Since then, BTC has steadied around the low–$110Ks, with intraday swings as traders slowly rebuild risk.
Context in one breath.
A late-week macro wobble hit an over-levered market. Forced sellers did the rest. By mid-week, the tone shifted from “spiraling” to “stabilizing” as the market defended the $110K region and funding normalized.
Possible Paths From Here
1) Reclaim & Run — rebuild above $115K → $120–$123K retest
After flushing weak longs, BTC grinds higher, then reclaims $115K on improving spot demand. A strong daily close above $118K invites a retest of the $120–$123K band (pre-flush supply). A clean break there opens room toward $128–$130K.
Pro Tips:
Entry: Stagger in on a daily close > $115K; add on a confirmed reclaim of $118–$120K.
Risk: Initial stop below the reclaim zone (~$110.5K), then trail beneath higher lows.
Targets: $120–$123K first; if momentum broadens, stalk $128–$130K.
2) Chop & Rebuild — base between $108–$116K
The market digests the shock. BTC ranges $108–$116K, volatility compresses, open interest stays sober, and spot quietly absorbs supply. This is where patience—not prediction—wins.
Pro Tips:
Plan the box: Accumulate near $108–$110K, trim near $115–$116K; avoid mid-range chop.
Volume tells: Expansion at range edges often telegraphs the break direction.
Tools: Consider light grid/range tactics with clear invalidation below $108K.
3) Second-Leg Flush — lose $110K → $105K, even $100–$102K
If headlines sour or liquidity thins and BTC closes below $110K on heavy sell volume, $105K (prior liquidity pocket) is exposed. A disorderly tape can sweep toward $102–$100K before bargain hunters step in.
Pro Tips:
Defense first: Reduce exposure on a decisive daily close < $110K.
Wait for stabilization: Look for capitulation wicks + waning sell volume before redeploying near $105K / $102–$100K.
Flip criteria: A strong reclaim of $110–$112K with breadth is your cue to re-engage.
Conclusion
If BTC reclaims $115K and $118–$120K holds → ride the trend toward $123K, then $128–$130K.
If we range $108–$116K → harvest the box with tight risk.
If $110K snaps on heavy sell volume → stand aside and let $105K → $102–$100K stabilize.
Trade the levels. Respect the tape.
Let structure—not the memory of the flush—drive your decisions.
🔥 Tips:
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
