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Bitcoinprojection

50 & 100 SMA data since 2013 shows Bitcoin in Topping Zone But is it ? There are so many things to see here that conform to previous cycles and yet, there are somethings that just do not add up. Let us start with the 50 SMA (Red) and the 100 SMA ( Blue) We are focusing on the Crossover of these 2 Weekly SMA's and distance from and to ATH etc. Let us start with this - On the 2 previous cycles that we can use, when the 50 SMA crossed over the 100, to when it returned below. On both these occasions, it was just over 1000 days ( 1008 & 1001 ) These are the day counts under the PA on the chart. If we assume this cycle will run the same way, the 50 should return below the 100 in August 2026. I am using this date line as an anchor to work back from. One of the stand out things for me is the near 100 day decrease in day count from ATH to where the SMA's cross over after an ATH, where the 50 drops below the 100. 2013 - 504 days 2017 - 448 days ( 404 + 44 days) 2021 - 308 days 2025 - this could be projected in one of 2 ways, the average of all previous day counts, divided by 3, that equals 420 days. Or we simply count down 100 days from the 2021 count and end up with 208.( while understanding certain room for error ) Counting back from the expected crossover in 2026 we just talked about above, IF we are to use the 420 days from ATH to Crossover, shows us we may have already past the ATH Point. The 208 day box shows us we still have time and the ATH will be in Jan 2026. The January date has confluence in a number of charts and is also in the traditional end of year range of cycle ATH. HOWEVER, if we now look at the day count from where the 50 crosses back over the 100, signalling bullish intent and momentum, to the next ATH, we have only 2 day ranges we can use. Leading up to the 2017 ATH, we had 560 days. To the 2021 ATH, it was 686 days. If we use the average, we have a count of 623 days this cycle. Projected onto the chart, we have past that date also But, if we follow the idea that that day count increases by just over 100 days each time, ( the opposite of the decreases of 100 days previously used After the ATH) we end up with an ATH around January 2026, again. ( I am hoping this is shown on the main chart and if not, here it is. Grey box under PA This is pure and utter suggestion and relies heavily on the market moving in much the same way as previously. But we all know things have changed some... Another thing to notice, if you are waiting for the sudden parabolic rise of BTC price, is how the % rise from Low to ATH is getting smaller. I have talked about this in previous posts but, for now, it is enough to say that we will most likely NOT get a sharp spike higher. And in fact, as shown here, we are already in that zone of TOPS....it can span months but a sudden rush higher, making 200%,,not going to happen What I am noticing is how the distance between the 50 and the 100 is very similar to the run to 2017 ATH but with a very uniform rise. Almost a straight line. It is being consistant and so, this may go on for a lot longer than previously. And so, to project a line along ths path, to when we could expect an ATH in Dec / Jan, we are looking at a high of around 140K Max Will this be the cycle High ? We will have to wait and find out stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN 5 lines and 3 indicators to watch now we in new ground I will be presenting a number of charts here and each has a different story to tell right now. The 5 lines are All valid trend lines. The Vertical lines are January year markers The white line at the bottom is th e long term support line from 2013 The Dotted line is a threshold line The Blue Arc is a line that has rejected EVERY ATH since 2013 The orange line is a marker that, once crossed has Always led to a New cycle ATH The upper dashed line is the line of rejection of all ATH since 2017 The Weekly Bitcoin PA chart Here we can clearly see how that Blue Arc has rejected PA previously. We can see how PA has reached a point of intersection and once it crosses that blue Arc, there is a line of rejection just above. This Blue line needs to be crossed and held as support. The Daily version of this chart shows ua how we have just crossed that blue Arc. It also shows us how FRAGILE this is right now. PA is currently testing that Blue line as support This needs to Hold. If we manage to hold this line and bounce, Stiff resistance is found around 120K The following charts are showing the following indicators The 3 indicators used are RSI - Relative Strength Index. used to measure the speed and change of price movements TSI - True Strength Index, used to indicate trend direction and overbought/oversold conditions. ADX - The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure the strength of a trend, not its direction The 4 hour chart - short term expectations for the weekend Bitcoin PA the Yellow line at the Top, the indicators are in the order listed above, First thing to see here is how BTC PA is retesting that Blue Arc - this really needs to hold RSI (blue) - OVER BOUGHT, It has fallen below its own MA ( average) and could easily drop further today. Looking back along this, we can see how the 4 hour RSI likes to range along the Neutral line, so we may see it drop back to that level today, tomorrow TSI is also OVER BOUGHT. We can see when TSI is up here, PA ranges while it cools off. But there is room for one little push here if required ADX ( yellow ) is high showing trend could be getting near exhausted, The orange line is the DI+. This shows positive prince direction, the Red one is DI- and shows that negative price direction is climbing slightly. In the short term, we need to see PA hold above the Blue line but the likelihood is to possibly back below. There is support below. The WEEKLY shows us that PA has the ability to continue for a while longer but we are getting near a point where PA needs to recover Here we can see how the RSI and TSI are both up high, on the edge of OVER BOUGHT but with the ability to rise further. What is VERY important to take note of here is that ADX. It is Low, this is indicating that the weekly Trend has lost strength now. It could continue lower. Remember, ADX DOES NOT SHOW TREND DIRECTION, JUST STRENGTH So, the thing to see here is that we are in an area where we could see a New Trend begin. This trend could be either Bullish or bearish On a weekly chart, this change can take a long time to appear in PA And for the Longer Term, The Monthly Chart gives us hope for a fuhrer push higher for the rest of the year but one little warning bell WE See Both RSI and TSI up high again, where they have been since 2024. But neither of them are up in OVER BOUGHT as much as they have been in previous cucle Tops.... So we can assume room to move higher. But what does ring a bell is that ADX again. It is once again, in a place of Change and on this chart, showing that the current trend can start becoming weaker. However, DI+ has plenty of room to move higher So, in conclusion, we see that BITCOIN has the ability to continue higher but in the short term, we may see a pause and possinle Volatility Trends are about to change, This could take Weeks and PA can continue higher while a trend weakens. For me. we are in the last few months of this cycle and at a point of Decision. PA MUST get over that Blue Arc that has rejected Every ATH since 2013. If PA fails this, we go back to sub 90K but this is unlikely, There are numerous projections that see BTC PA in price discovery reaching the 120K before serious resistance. On this chart, if PA follows pattern and trends, we could see 378K by year end Getting over that irange line is KEY Stay safe everyone.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN Seems to have Broken the LONG Term resistance- BIG DAY The chart really does say it all You can see the Arc, above PA that has rejected PA Every ATH since 2013 It created the point of rejection on 6 ATH in Total and presented a huge problem if it was not broken. And I can assure you, that arc touches Every ATH. Just recently, this same line rejected PA Twice, with strength. The Zoomed chart below shows you where we are now This image shows you the two 2021 ATH points. and the last two touches { which I find remarkably close to the 2021 double ATH but in miniature } And, as you can see, we have a candle ABOVE this Arc of resistance. and the Big question is now, WILL WE STAY ABOVE And what is also notable is how this has happened perfectly at the end of the FIB TIME SCALE used. This line will have to be tested as support one day and when that day comes, we really REALLY need to remain above. And once we do that..we really will be in price discovery, in a way that we have never been before. I am looking at some charts that may offer projected lines of resistance but I am waiting to see what happens here first before publishing them ENJOY THE RIDE
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Projection with targets for the next scenario in BITCOIN 1hTechnical analysis regarding the price of BITCOIN in relation of dollar Tether for the next scenarios, based on 1 hour movement. Price forming ascending tops/bottoms near a region where the price has consolidated. I believe that by breaking this region, you can easily search for such projections. RSI> 50 gaining momentum and MACD with buying mass entering! Price being driven by EMA for 34 periods. disclaimer *** In accordance with CVM Instruction No. 598, of May 3, 2018, Art. 21, I declare that the recommendations of this analysis reflect solely and exclusively my personal opinions and perceptions and that they were prepared independently and autonomously. Not being considered a purchase and/or sale recommendation. ***
Long
by luizhcruz
2