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Bitcointechnical

Bitcoin is approaching a make or break decision, It MUST Rise It may be best to show you THIS chart The Chart is the Entire history of Bitcoin. (Yellow Line ) Easy to see how EVERY All Time High has been rejected off ONE line. A Fibonacci Spiral There is one line of support that has Never been broken just below. PA is now getting Squeezed between these two lines. PA MUST REACT And it is VERY easy to understand that unless Bitcoin PA rises above this spiral, the line of resistance, VERY VERY Strong Resistance could push PA i descent. The Zoomed Weekly shows more detail The Blue line is that Spiral, The Daily chart shows us where we are Right now. We need to break over and remain above. The rising lines of support meet that Blue Arc, the spiral, in Late December. PA tends to react before the apex of a Squeeze. As we enter November 2025, we may see some strong Moves in Both directions. PA is currently rising, trying to close October Green, it is currently RED We had a red October in a Bull run only once before, in 2012 November is going to be Fun.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
5
BITCOIN Weekly chart shows strength with potential to extend This chart is one of my oldest and most trusted charts. Thhis main chart is Weekly and from the end weeks of the Bear in 2022. You can see wre January 2023 is marked and so we can see the rising channels that developed. The Blue Bold line is a Long term line if support from 2013 that we may never visit again. There are 2 lines I want to draw your attention to. The rising bold White line that acted as strong resistance in August 2022 and was turned in to Support in early 2024. It has been strong support ever since. The other is the 2.618 Fib extension ( Arrow ). This line was resistance in early 2025 and remained so until crossed in around June this year. It has been support ever since. PA is heading towards the intersection of these two lines in Mid November ( around 17th ). PA could react before this date but it is very possible that PA will rise to a new ATH from this point. The 2.618 Fib was tested recently in that Sudden Drop and we can see this on the daily chart below. See that last wick down ? For me, the fact that this Snowballing liquidation was stopped by that line, shows massive strength of support there. We can also see that rising line of support worked well in April this year. These are 2 very strong lines of support and PA is above both of them and heading to the intersection of the two in November. But what supports this idea further ? The Weekly RSI is in a zone that previous occasions have bounced from, though it could fall a little further, giving a delay in PA rising. November 17 is just over 3 weeks away. We may see RSI rise, Dip, rise The weekly MACD also offers some insights The weekly MACD is dropping bearish and its projected line till it reaches support is around end of November. Later than the 17th November The Daily MACD may show us the idea of a bounce for the short term MACD is turning up from OVERSOLD but we need to see what happens over the next few weeks closely. The idea that a short term Bounce in the Daily MACD also supports the idea of the RSI bouncing up down up, as mentioned above. Something that I do find very interesting is the change in MVRV this cycle. I have never seem MVRV rising in a channel like this and what is more interesting is how the Z Score ( yellow ) has bounced off the lower trend line twice previously. And it is heading towards that line again, with a projected Touch around 27 November. SO, all in all, we have Bitcoin Above Strong Support, heading to a point of intersection that has the potential to push PA higher. That push could then be supported a little after with strong support from Technicals. This may Push Bitcoin PA in a sustained rise with next major resistance levels at 137K We need to get above and Hold that level. BUT, as ever, MACRO could take over and we have, next week, the FED interest rate decision. However, NOVEMBER is the focus here. The Federal Reserve does not have a scheduled FOMC meeting in November 2025. The next meeting after October 28-29, 2025, is scheduled for December 9-10, 2025 This could be VERY INTERESTING Q4 Stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Global / Local Fib Levels point to the TOP area to watch Each Low to ATH has a "Local" Fib extension Set And the Yellow Fib extension is from the 2011 Low to the 2013 ATH and I use this as a "Global" Fib as that was, in reality, the first ever Low to ATH before a sustained draw back. Please Note that as Candles would not show very clearly at this scale, I have used a Line. This has some inaccuracy as to true candle Ends. As a result, it looks like some Fibs are misplaced but I assure you, each are placed accurately, using candles and then the Line is used. The Fibs are accuratly placed. Local Fib extension ATH Fib number 2013 November - 5.272 2017 December - 4.236 2021 November - 2 2025 Current just above 2.618 Global Fib extension ATH number NOTE- See on chart how ATH is just above this Fib level, except for Fib 1. 2013 November - 1 2017 December- 1.414 2021 November - 1.618 2025 Current Fib just below 1,758 - if we follow trend, I expect ATH to be using this 1.768 line, the next in sequence of Fib numbers. Local Fib charts 2011 low to 2013 ATH 2015 low to 2017 ATH 2019 low to 2021 ATH 2023 low to current position To me, there are a number of things to see here. More than anything, what is plain to see is how Bitcoin has used the Global Fib numbers like stepping Stones. Currently just below the 1.768, which is the next in sequence. ( Yellow lines ) All but the First ATH were recorded just above the Global Fib lines ( the First was on the line ) and I have little doubt we will do this again. And if we look at the pattern of the Local Fib lines, we can see that we missed the 3.236 line in 2021 We went from 5 to 4 to 2. ( ignoring the 236 bit for now.) We missed 3 See how the first 2 Local Fibs dropped by nearly one complete Fib number, from 5.272 to 4.236 By the time we headed towards the 2021 ATH, the market accelerated hugely, mostly due to the idea of Get Rich quick and no tax rules..GREED WAS UPMOST. Even at the time, I considered this cycle Abnormal. Many charts show why, and I will not expand further here. The Local Fib level for that run was distorted by the swift recovery from the low in 2019. While this was not a bad thing, it changed the cycle dynamics. This cycle, currently, we have returned to a more sensible approach and we appear to be heading to the 3 local Fib zone, maybe as we should have done in 2021. This also happens to be just above the 1.768 Global Fib line, The next expected Global ATH line. So, we are currently approaching that 1.7668 Global Fib line and we can expect the ATH to be above this, if we follow the previous 2 ATH. And if we go above that Global line the same as we have in the last 2 previous cycles, we find the Local 3 Fib extension. IF we were to follow previous, this could be expected ro be the 3.236, at around 190K I think this is doubtful and maybe the 3 itself is more realistic at 155K So, there you have it. Bitcoin and its Fibs have a pattern, it get broken and it looks like it is trying to regain that pattern. And this is all done by Humans trading........ Astounding. and that 2 Global Fin line in 2029 ? Will we get there ? Given the introductions of ETF and Corprate Long term holders....Will we see a bear market before we rech that 2 Global Fib ? So many questions... One real answer is BUY BITCOIN AND HOLD ON TO IT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin 2013 Fractal chart UPDATE = Nailed the PA target Been posting this chart for the last few years and drew that Circle that PA hit, back in Feb..Way befppre PA arrived there. I also drew that dashed Arrow line at the same time ad, as we can see frm the Daily chart beow, PA is bang on that line. Why is it importnat that you know this ? Because those Circles and Dashed lines are transposed from teh 2017 - 2021 fractal ! We do seem to have moved from one Fractal to another. This has yet to be fully confirmed and the July Candle Close will certainly help identify this if we get a large green candle. So, for now, we wait. I will post more details about this later but fir now, if we follow this line, we can expect a cycle ATH of around 270K - 322K in Q4 2025 And then the BIG question is "What is next ?" because, as I have pointed out n another posts, we are also leaving a long term cycle (2009 - 2025 ) line of resistance....that we just broke free of...but need to remain above. Judy is CRUCIAL
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
Bitcoin - value of S2F model and TA on 1MMany bitcoin investors believe in the S2F (Stock to Flow) model and expect bitcoin to rise to 100,000+ USD any time soon. The model advocates that an asset has a production/supply limit, for example, like gold and silver and therefore, in the long run, such an asset will only grow in value. This is all true! Hard asset Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million. This makes it a hard currency, so by 2040 one can expect it to be worth 1 million USD per unit. By that time, Bitcoin will mainly be used as a banking transactions' instrument, while for investment purposes a new fork will be created most likely. What's the buzz? If you are a long term investor and time is on your hands, then simply wait another 15-20 years and you'll collect your jackpot. However, if you are a trader on 1D, then you should take into account that bitcoin is a high-risk asset due to its volatility, it runs in cycles that are determined by macroeconomic factors and its drop to 10,000-7,000 USD is more than real. If in doubt, then take a look at US Binance on October 21, where the price of bitcoin fell by 87% from 65,000 USD  to 8,200 USD within a minute. It's important to remember that the cost of bitcoin is primarily the cost of electricity used for mining + the cost of its farm's infrastracture. For large industrial farms, such as Poolin, Bitmain, Crypto Scientific etc. that make up the main share market - the cost per bitcoin is around 3000-5000 USD. Everything else is mere speculation and the belief in hard asset. So ask yourself - under what circumstances can the price of bitcoin fall in the S2F model? A simple example of a cycle Take any famous artist. During his life, he can create only a certain number of paintings. The price of a painting grows progressively as the artist becomes more famous and demand for his work increases. This is a S2F model. A painting's cost bottom remains unchanged - it includes the canvas, paints for drawing and the time it takes to create the masterpiece. All of a sudden a global war arrives. There is misery and hunger! This is a cycle. During this period, an artist's painting loses its value and is sold for a loaf of bread. Recession In this insance, bitcoin's war is a global recession that has already begun. This is confirmed by US bonds' price inversion. As in the last 9 recession cycles over the last 60 years such course was always followed by a market crash. Based on  previous cycles, the recovery of the US economy took an average of 9-16 months. Hence, we are looking into 2023 at least before any further growth! TA on 1M The blue curve is now flat at the top. The upward blue trendline was broken back in November 2018. In June 2021, the price exited the green wedge and bounced off it in October 2021. Two days ago the price broke through the second pink wedge, so far only as a shadow, but it is only the beginning of the month. RSI has a clear price divergence. MACD is at the peak of a rising wedge. RVI has broken through 50. Vertical volumes keep falling while price rises.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by WallStreetFox
15