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Bitcointechnicalanalysis

Bitcoin ascending channel and Cups -Next cycle Cup entered ? YES Bitcoin ascending channel and Cups -Next cycle Cup entered PA entered channel in march 2017 and has never left, other than to go to ATH. Bitcoin has spent more time in and above this channel than out of it. Since entering channel, PA has always bounced off the lower line of channel For the sake of this post, we are assuming that the current ATH is the final one this cycle. Reasons why this maybe the case are listed below. The Cups ( the yellow Semi Circles ) go from the ATH and the tops are Level, same price line. This is called the Neckline. The Blue day count boxes are ATH to when PA broke through the neckline of the Cup. 2013 - 1211 days 2017 - 1106 days 2021 - 1120 days The day count in grey boxes, below PA, are from when PA leaves the neckline of the Cup and goes to ATH of that "Cycle" March 2017 to Dec 2017 - 266 days Dec 2020 to Nov 2021 = 322 days Dec 2024 to October 2025 - 308 days - This shows that PA is in the day count Range to have printed a cycle ATH maybe. Please Note, the Cups are Not EXACT but close enough to show the idea intended here. For instance, PA followed the Arc of the Cup from ATH in 2017 to when it touched the Lower trend line of the channel. It then bounced. From the ATH in 2021, PA also followed the Arc of the Cup till it reached the Lower trendline , where it bounced...again. It maybe worth noting that PA has not yet reached the upper trend line this time, and I have posted about this before, while talking about the "Blue Arc of resistance".....That has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin was created. IF PA has just been rejected off the latest ATH and is about to enter the Cup again, we have a more shallow drop, till we reach the lower trend line of the channel. This will be in Feb 2026 at a price of around 60K -> 62K Why would I think PA has just entered the Next Cup ? ATH to next ATH day counts have been ( as shown in the upper Grey Day count Boxes ) 2013 - 2017 = 1477 days 2017 - 2021 = 1428 days 2021 - 2025 = 1428 days - PA is again in the Day count Range to show that we Have have reached that point There is Obviously the possibiity that PA will reach another ATH in 2026 and many, including me, say that things have changed and the 4 years Cycle is over..... We shall see .but until then, I am watching this idea closely. But again, I will mention, PA has not reached the upper trend line.......it may not..... What ever does happen, this will be the first time the Tops of the Cup are Not BOTH in the channel, since the channel was fully entered by PA in 2017. Since entering channel, Every ATH has been one FIB level higher than the previous 2017 just above 1 Fib 2021 just above 1.236 Fib 2015 just above 1.382 Fib The Next Fib level, the 1.5, sits at a price line of 205700 USD ( 2013 ATH that set the upper trend line of channel was on the 0.618 Fib ) The Fact that PA has reached above that Fib line this cycle, is a day count similar to previous cycles, I do think we may have Topped.....and begun to enter the next Cup. Just as a side note, Very interesting how From the 2013 ATH to when PA fell out of channel was 266 days ( Orange Box on Left og Main chart) It was also exactly 266 days From when PA left the Top of the Cup and reached the New ATH in 2017. ( First lower Grey box on the left ) I think we are in for a VERY interesting 2026 HAPPY NEW YEAR to you all
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
10
Bitcoin 4 hour UPDATE - PA dropping but still BULLISH but....... Why is this still Bullish ? PA broke through a hard line of resistance that had rejected PA since October. PA is now using that same line as support. We may be sliding down it slowly but are are ABOVE IT, ready to move when the Bulls feel ready. And that moment can be any time. 4 Hour MACD Falling Bearish for now but the Daily is still below Neutral and level having Risen, so the ptential for change and a push higher is possible. We just need the Bulls to want to..... Maybe worth noting how the Histogram is almost level. The Depth of change is not not getting deeper. 4 Hour Volume Delat -> The Volume Delta indicator uses intrabar volume and price fluctuations to estimate the difference (delta) between buying and selling pressure within each chart bar, providing insight into an instrument's sentiment and market dynamics. This shows us we have had some Strong selling and yet, at the same time, we have seen it all bought up. Demand still exists However, for a dose of reality, The Daily Volume Delta does show us a true extent of the selling recently What is impressive is how PA has NOT dropped further than it has. For me, this shows an underlaying strength..... But I feel a little warning is required here to, for the next 14 days, This Daily BITCOIN Chart shows how we are heading to a 236 Fib Circle, ( red diagonal descending arc ) We may get rejected off this. What is difficult with knowing what will happen here is simply that we can see how PA has dropped after the last fib circle.( white descending Arc )....We may already have done the drop for this 236 and so, a push through could also be on the cards. We can also see how the VRVP on the right, has reduced levels of resistance above, till we get to 110K On current trajectory, we hit that 236 Fib Circle on 28 Dec. Have a peaceful Holiday to you all and may your wishes be granted
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
Bitcoin Daily UPDATE Still Bullish, testing resistance PA got rejected by the 4.618 Fib extension. And Now, we see that PA has retraced and is now testing that Old Dashed line of resistance, as Support. Yp remind you, that dashed line has rejected PA ever since the Oct ATH. It is important we Hold this The 4 hour chart shows this more clearly. We currently see, today, is GREEN Support is holding and providing we kerp this, I reman bullish. The 4 Hour MACD Keep an eye on this. We need to see it bounce, hopefully off the Neitral line. Histogram currently RED>. shows continued Drop. MACD is Laggy, showing what has already happened.....But the Histogram is a great way of seeing change of direction Should Support fail, we have what appears to be the "Bottom" around 84K and then around 80500 So, We Wait.....Time will tell
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
The Bitcoin Daily UPDATE We have turned BULLISH Quick Update for the chart posted previously. Bitcoin PA Has broken above the line of resistance that has rejected PA since Oct ATH. The 4 hour chart below shows this clearly. This is a Strong move and PA has strength to break through resistance higher above. We need to keep an eye on that 4.618 Fib line and then that red 236 Fib circle just above. If we get through both those we could very well see Moves higher with 93K being a target. The Daily MACD has plenty of Room to move higher The 4 hour ( Not shown) is above Neutral but with room to go higher. This push higher, if sustained, all aligns with ideas preented in the Monthly Candle Colour chart sequence
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Really Simple BITCOIN Daily chart -> TODAY is decision day it is all there to see, really easily. This is a LINEAR Bitcoin Daily "work" Chart, No adjustments on the price action. It is as it was. The descending Dashed line is the line of resistance since the October ATH. The descending solid "lines" are sections of Fib Circles that have acted as support / Resistance and the red ones are 236 Fib circles, usually Strong...as can be seen by the support offered in recent months until we fell through it in November. TODAY, PA has bumped into that descending dashed line of resistance, that has yet to be broken. As can be seen below on this 4 hour chart, this is also on the 0.382 Fib Retrace line. PA needs to break through Both these lines today and then return, test as support and then push higher. THEN of course, we have that 236 Red FIB Circle....Tough days ahead but Bitcoin is over sold on many time frames and so, WE CAN DO IT........................ But we have to wait and see if it happens Bearish signals are flashing and we may have to wait till January........ Or the Bulls Jump up and ..Off we go.......... Time will tell
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Weekly Bull Bear War in Full Swing. BTC retreated The weekly chart often shows us things the lower time frames do not fully highlight. The Vertical lines in this chart are every January, yearly And right now, we are on a line of support that comes off the two 2021 ATH's See the Dashed line in the chart above. It was used as Support for a short while in the First ATH of 2021. The Second ATH just fell through it, no point in wasting timg lol Then you can see we broke back over that line in Early 2024, having been rejected by it in Early 2024, twice. In Early 2025, we tested it as support, went to ATH and now, we are back, testing the line of support. On a Bearish note, we did fall through a line of support from 2012 but this may have had to happen to avoind PA being pushed a Lot lower. To explain that, See that Blue Arc above PA. That line has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin was born; See how that Arc continues and turns into a BIG down trand after the intersection with long term support....Were Bitcoin PA is now. See how That Arc has rejected ATH's ..It is a part of a Fibanacci spiral. PA has spent nearly every day under this line. PA has spent most of its life Above the long Term line of support mentioned above. You can see that on this long term chart also. And so we can see how PA has been getting squeezed tight between these 2 lines. PA always reacts before the Apex. And it has done so, by dipping just below that line of support, taking pressure OFF pa tp react. Lets zoom into Daily chart and look closer. See how PA has found support on that dashed line from 2021 and how that longcterm line from 2012 is now resistance, You can also see how the Bulls DID manage to ge tPA above that Blue Arc for the first Time Ever. And the BEars whacked it back down. But the simple fact that the Bulls have taken a Calculated Risk and dropped below that long term support and quickly found support is a sign of Strength and intent to recover, when ready.. Bitcoin PA has more than enough to push higher when ready, RSI down below neutral, heading to over sold. The MACD Daily MACD rising from Over Sold The weekly is nearly fully over sold and the Histogram has begun tirning white..BULLISH We are SO Nearly Ready but we sit on a fine line. The War between Bulls and Bears has been Muted compared to previous cycles. To me, this points towards the Bulls having the upper hand...The Bears treading cautiously.... If the Bears were in Full strength, we would already be seeing Bitcoin at 44K But remain Cautious.......This could go either wayu still
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
4 hour BITCOIN Update - Bulls looking Good UPDATE to the 4 hour Bitcoin post yesterday, were we talked about how the Bulls have been stepping up the Fib retracement Ladder. To remind you, See the first major Drop took us to the 1 retrace Fib line, Obviously. The second, took us to the 0.768. And as of NOW, The Bulls appear to be holding the 0.618l. The Bulls are doing Well. The Yellow 200 SMA is the next problem for PA, should the bulls carry PA higher. That is around 90K BUT this is a Bear flag on a higher Time Frames. We are still in a "No mans Land" right now..... PA can go either way I have BULLISH CAUTION I would also like you to look at what happened in Early 2025 This Daily chart shows us that Early 2025 also had a pull back, that began ending in a Bear Flag, we dropped to support and then pushed higher. A total drop of -32.5% We have just done -35.8% We are likely to Dip a little lower maybe but I am not yet convinced that we are in a Full on Bear market just yet. For me, we still have hope while PA remains above that Long Term line of support, that now sits on the 0.768 Fib Line....at around 83351 usdt I wait patiently.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
DONT PANIC BITCOIN - Bulls maybe still in control This is just a SHORT term Idea. Lomger term has yet to be fully seen, though I have y ideas, as published in the Monthyl candle colour posts. This is a 4 hour Bitcoin INDEX chaart with a Fib Retracement See how the First Drop, obviously is at 1 The 2nd Fast Drop went to the 0.768 - ulls HELD the Step step Higher. And we are in the Middle of the 3rd Fast Drop and currently, we iare around the 0.618 Will the Bulls Hold this next step higher ? We have to wait and See But if they do, then I can see a push higher, maybe in the last Half of December Time Will Tell.....
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
An old BITCOIN idea played out and now, we could see a recovery I posted this idea back in early October and, as we see, the bearish W patter played out. We had had an earlier Bullish W patter ( or Dounle Bottom) The chances were PA would go either way on the 2nd and the Measured moves are shown with Vertical lines. As you see, we went to nearly exactly the RED Bearish Measured move this time And so now, we can expect what ? The Daily MACD The Daily MACD Fell Deep into OverSold and has been recovering, is still below Neutral. Lower timeframes are also below Neutral so the ability to push higher exists Daily Volume Delta Volume Deltais an indicator that analyzes intrabar volume and price fluctuations to estimate the difference (delta) between buying and selling pressure within each chart candle We can see that Selling is reducing since Mid October and that The Green Candles show us that Buying is picking up. We will very possibly have to wait till we get the inflation figures for the USA later this week, before we get a real move. There ismore than enough ability to push higher again but a Drop down to the 70K area is also possible.. Remain cautious for now...... Till we get a clear signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Weekly BEARISH trigger to watch in the coming weeks 9 SMA Orange 14 SMA Green 50 SMA Red This is really sinple. Bitcoin PA has followed a number of previous cycle Fractels to one degree or other and NOW. we seem to be repeating the post 2021 ATH idea. To recap on aprevious post. Note how the 2 ATH in 2021 were within the o to 236 Fin entrancement range. 2021 ATH Weekly chart Also note the day count from a short term recovery after post ATH Drop. Also notice the Crossover of the 9 and the 50 SMA. We reached a high, another retrace, then a push higher above all 3 SMA and then Full on BEAR We seem to be playing a Veyr similar pattern right now. We are just entering that period were the 50 crosses the 9 The small circle is the approx area of the next high, possibly afyer a dip. And then, the projected similar day count to where PA drops under that 236 retracement line. For me THAT will signal the return of a bear market. If that happens, that is around MARCH 2026 We need to play Close attention here....
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin reaction to FED RATE choices since 2021 It is really very simple Back in 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin PA did what it was intended to do and rate decisions did not directly inpact Bitcoin at all. We had the traditional 9-% pull back, as we had had in previous cycle. The impact in the rising Rates was on companies in the Crypto Sphere, that suffered as rates were increased. Repaying th eloans became intolerable. Lets look at this cycle, from late 2022 to current day Despite Steep Rate rises in late 2022, Early 2023, Bitcoin Price and trading Volume INCREASED.# In Late 2022, you can see that a steep 75 point increase did not phase BTC from trying to rise but the impact on crypto companies and Banks began scaring people and the next 75 point rise tipped many over But Bitcoin found a floor and remained there. Then we had a 50 point rise and PA remained were it was...NO IMPACT> Then we had a series of 3 x 25 point rises. Bitcoin Rose through the first of those and fought back in the other 2, dipping slightly as the OverSold MACD cooled off ( this was on lower time frames )......The ONLT reason for the Range to lower prices Weekly MACD The Green box shows the period that BTC PA ranged, March to September 2023 THIS was the defining period for BITCOIN Once it became cheaper to borrow nd ETF's were allowed. off we went. Is Cheaper borrowing likely to sustain Bitcoins rise ? OF COURSE But please remain cautious. 100K -> 110K usdt is the line of possible rejection and has potential to enter Bitcoin into a Deeper Bear. REMEMBER. BITCOIN is NOT effected by Rates, as we saw in early 2023, and If a BEAR Market is required, then it will happen no matter if Rates are lower. For Me, I think we will see a rise, a Dip and then, around March next year,we will see the defining moment that will decree where we REALLY go MACRO events can always accelerate that
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Bitcoin Daily zgainst resistamce- with ability to break through Today we hear about the USA Federal Reserve decisdion on interest rates. The expectation is for them to be Lowered. BUT there is a chance of NO change. "Lines" dropping from Left to Right are Fib Circles. Bitcoin PA is up against the 236 Fib Circle that has been recent resistance. We also have the trend line that has been rejecting PA since ATH. The Arroe points to the intersection of the two, the point of ;east resistance ( Aroow ). PA tried yesterday to break through and Got Rejected on First attempt. Just below is the faint dashed liner. This is Cycle support, with origin in Summer 2023 and could be enough support to keep PA trying to break through that 236 Fib circle. And the Rate decision today will CERTAINLY be a major part in this move. The Daily MACD Shows plently of Room to move higher. The 4 hour also has room to move higher The Weekly is still falling byt very Very Oversold now. Strength for longer term moves exist The Daily RSI Very similar to MACD Room on most Time Frames for continued moves higher. So, We wait for the FED> I am beginning to get that lovely feeling that things will turn GREEN again very soon.....providing the USA allows it ;-( I am uncertain as to how I feel that Bitcoin is now such a Corporate "Tool" but that us where we are.....
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Analytics: market overview and forecasts WHAT HAPPENED? Last week, for bitcoin, we reached the upper limit of a significant support zone and almost immediately received a powerful boost. This led to a change in the local trend to an upward one. As part of the growth, the resistance of $94,000-$97,500 (volume zone) was reached, from which the correction began. Now we've pushed off from the support of $87,800-$86,400 (volume zone) and maintain the upward context. WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT? The movement potential is aimed at updating the local maximum. To fully reverse the trend, the buyer needs to demonstrate more strength. The $94,000-$97,500 zone remains relevant, as a significant part of it hasn't been tested. The implementation of a positive scenario is possible both through a confident breakdown of this range, and through the formation of a weak correction in terms of volume and price action. A negative factor for the development of the long rally this week is the selling pressure on the spot market, as seen by the cumulative delta. The situation is better in futures, but the market needs more "fuel" for a final turnaround. Alternative scenario: with a strong defense of the nearest resistance, a sideways trend may form in the range of $84,000-$94,000. Buy Zones $87,800–$86,400 (volume zone) $84,000–$82,000 (volume anomalies) Sell Zones $94,000–$97,500 (volume zone) $101,000–$104,000 (accumulated volumes) $105,800–$106,600 (local resistance) IMPORTANT DATES We're following these macroeconomic developments this week: • Tuesday, December 9, 15:00 (UTC) — publication of the number of open vacancies in the labor market (JOLTS) USA for October; • Wednesday, December 10, 2:45 (UTC) — announcement of Canada's interest rate decision; • Wednesday, December 10, 19:00 (UTC) — US FOMC statement and economic forecasts, as well as the announcement of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision; • Wednesday, December 10, 19:30 (UTC) — US FOMC press Conference; • Thursday, December 11, 9:00 (UTC) — press conference of the National Bank of Switzerland; • Thursday, December 11, 13:30 (UTC) — publication of the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week; Friday, December 12, 7:00 (UTC) — publication of the UK GDP for October, as well as the German consumer price index for November. *This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience. #analytics
by Crypto_robotics
BTC/USDT Analysis. Reached Key Resistance Hello everyone! CryptoRobotics trader-analyst here, and this is your daily market update. Yesterday, Bitcoin reached the important resistance area at $94,000–$97,500 (high-volume zone). At this level, buyer price action weakened noticeably, and cumulative delta shows a clear dominance of sellers — indicating that upward momentum is fading locally. Given this context, we expect a correction toward the nearest support zones, from which the uptrend may resume with targets above $100,000. A move back into the $84,000–$82,000 (volume anomalies) zone from current prices would cast doubt on the strength of the current bullish wave, making this scenario unfavorable for continued growth. Buy Zones $91,000–$89,800 (mirror volume zone) $87,800–$86,400 (volume zone) $84,000–$82,000 (volume anomalies) Sell Zones $94,000–$97,500 (volume zone) $101,000–$104,000 (accumulated volumes) $105,800–$106,600 (local resistance) This publication is not financial advice.
by Crypto_robotics
1
It Looks like Bitcoin is repeating the 2021 ATH Moves and SMA 50 Week SMA ( RED ) 100 Week SMA ( BLUE ) In the Chart above, take Note of the Drop in PA after the first ATH and how PA bounced off the 50 week SMA ( RED ), Bounced up to a New ATH and then Dropped back, fell through the 50 and is currently Bouncing off the 100 Week SMA ( BLUE ) Also notice the 91 day count, which takes us to March 2026 Also note how all this has happened between the 0 and 0.236 Fib retracement lines. Now lets look at what happened in 2021 The Drop in PA after the first ATH and how PA bounced off the 50 SMA area , Bounced up to a New ATH and then Dropped back, fell through the 50 and Bounced off the 100 SMA Almost EXACTLY what we are currently Seeing. That bounce, that we maybe currently recreating, lasted 91 days before it fell through and into the Bear market. Notice how PA got rejected by the 21 SMA ( GREEN ) before it fell through the 236 Fib line For me, that Bear Market began as soon as PA fell through the 236 Fib line. Should we recreate that 2021 sequence, it may look something like this We currently have not yet returned to the 236 Fib Line as we did in 2021.This gives us a little more Room to move thankfully. But we should certainly keep an eye on that 21 Week SMA. Bells will Ring when the 21 crosses under the 50 This may get invalidated if PA rises and remains above the Jan 2025 ATH at around 108K usdt We Wait, Time will tell
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Close Color since 2011 and patternsNovember closed RED as expected and so we have continued to follow Sequence in the left Box, mentioned in the October post. The left Box shows the only similar monthly Candle sequence, similar to the one we currently have. If you look closely, it is also a very similar "Curve" shape. Descent to low, rise, flatten out. The Candle Sequence to see is Red, Green. 2 Red. 4 Green, 1 red, 1 Greeno 1 red That Sequence was followed by a larger Red Candle, which we have just also done. The Thin down facing arrow in the left Box, points to the equvilant candle to the one we just closed, thought the month was August and not a November. The left box starting in September 2022 and the Right Box starts in December 2024. These Sequences run for 11 Months so Far.. This is the only 2 occasions this sequence has ever happened in Bitcoin history...and they are Both in the same "Bull Run" And I will just mention that the Left Box was the recovery period after the 2022 Bear market. A Very positive period. If we continue this Sequence, we should see a Green Candle in December, though maybe not a large one. Some charts point to a Red start to December, so remain cautious. We should also remember that a pattern workss untill it Stops...but the longer it runs, the higher the chance of that point being reached. Just to Recap from the October post of this Series..... "The Red November in 2011 was the bottom and was the start of Bitcoins 2 year push to ATH. The Red one in November 2022 marked the Bottom of the Bear, though December was red but a small candle. Nearly half of the Red Novembers called the Bottom of a Bear, a turning point in market behaviour." (There had been only 5 Red Novembers at the time of writing) What is also very interesting is how the November 2022 Red candle was approx -27% draw down. (Wicks included) -> the following December in 2022 closed a small Red candle. The Red November we just closed was also approx -27% However, To follow the Color sequence, we will expect a Green December. Of the Previous Red NOVEMBER closes, we have only ever had ONE Green December, way back in 2011, The Odds do point to a Red December close....but hopefully a small one. If this happens, the color sequence gets broken but I will look at what happened in early 2023 as a possible follow on. The November, December, January candles for sure.... Looking Forward. Previous December closes. 7 Green to 7 Red - A 50 - 50 mix. Of the previous 7 Red December Closes, 4 were followed by a Green January, the last one being in December 2022 and was followed by a Lovely Green January, marking the start of the current push higher by Bitcoin from 15K usdt low to over 120K usdt. That January Candle was over 50% rise. Only one Red December led us into a Deep Bear market, the others signalled change..... So, While the odds, technically, point to a Red December close, to follow previous moves and sentiments, this may not be a bad thing. A Red December would break the sequence we have been talking about, as the next in sequence is a GREEN candle. And so were the next 6 Months. So, December Close will answer Many questions and is, once again, a pivotal month. The Sentiment for the entire year to follow will be set by this months Candle Close.. We currently have a number of pointers suggesting this is an End to a "Bear"....and this Draw back right now has seen PA fall below a number of Key support levels but interestingly, we have got no where near the "traditional " - 80% Bear draw down. Very confused signals, hinting at moves in either direction. We have to wait......as ever.... But I am VERY BULLISH As it stands, a Red or a Green December has the potential to be Good, providing that, obviously, a BEAR market is not confirmed. My preference is fr a small Red candle this month........
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Historical Bitcoin ATH drawdown to Fib retrace and % decline Bitcoin ATH drawdown to Fib retrace and % decline 2011 to 0.236 retrace = =92.41% 2013 to 0.236 retrace = -78.27% 2017 to 0.382 retrace = -82.20% 2021 to 0.5 retrace = -76.40% Also note how PA bounces off the 50 Week SMA ( Red ) after every ATH except for in 2011. I have only included the 2011 High as it also reached down the the 0.236 after ATH. But it Must be remembered that the 2011 High is NOT in any channels. It did however, become the support and origin of the current Lower line of Long Term support. Every other ATH had a draw down to the 50 week SMA, a bounce higher and then fell through the SMA. (2017 is slightly different but this is still valid ) The 2021 Bounce led to a new ATH for the first time. Currently from Current 2025 ATH, we have still not reached the 0.236 on the current draw Down but we have fallen through the 50 week SMA for the first time this Cycle. This is VERY different from previous Cycles. You will also note how PA has previously bounced off the 50 SMA 3 times this cycle already, on or very near a Fib line.. Again, Very different behaviour. However, as you can see from the main chart, we have used Every single Fib line on the way up. It was fairly similar in the lead up to the 2017 ATH. To me, this validates these Fib lines. But What I want to look at is how the 2021 PA went to an ATH, retraced back to its own 0.236 line, on the 50 Week SMA ( Red), bounced to a New ATH and then Draw down, a small bounce and fell through the 50 SMA. That second draw down did not reach the 236 > it bounced up till it collided with the 50 week SMA and then went into a full on Bear. All that happened between the 0 and the 0.236 Fib Retrace lines, untill it fell through . To many extents, Bitcoin PA is repeating this. We hit a new ATH in Jan 2025, retreated to the current 0.236 and the 50 Week SMA, bounced to a New ATH in October and have been in retreat since, never yet reaching the 0.236 again. I am currently looking to see when current PA hits the 50 week SMA. The 50 week SMA will be Met, at current trajectory around the 100K usdt mark. Then, if we follow the 2021 pattern, PA will get rejected and we will eventually head to the 44K zone on the 0.5 Fib retrace. Which also happens to be the line that PA bounced off in 2021, its 0.236 fib line. That is around a -63% retrace. LESS than previous retracements. That follows the 2021 route. Current PA is also stil running between the 0 and the 0.236 fib retracement lines. As the 2 ATH's did in 2021. We do seem to be following a simialr Technical pattern. Look back though the other ATH and see how the 236 was used. BUT if we look back to the previous Fib retrace lines..We seem to be going to the next Fib retracement level sown after each ATH, before a meaningful bounce. 2013 to 0.236 retrace 2017 to 0.382 retrace 2021 to 0.5 retrace If we follow This, the next for this cycle could be the 0.618, which sits at 34,966 usdt I do yet think this will Happen and 7here is NO guareantee this will happen but I have found it very interesting how PA is repeating a number of patterns, certainly, currently, the similarity to the 2021 ATH structures. Another was From October 2021 till June 2025, we had PA running a near perfect copy of the 2013 to 2017 Fracel. This has now changed and we follow a later route This Can obviously get Broken completely by Fundamentals....which are Mental right now. And then, we have the Shouts of "This time is Different. " YES and NO. As this post shows, there are many similarities and yet, at the same time, The way PA has reacted and moved this cycle, if it is a cycle, is also unique,,, And another reason for that, is studied in earlier posts about "The Blur Arc of resistance" And we may well just keep on going to a New higher ATH in 2026. While the current draw down has been painful, there is no confirmed Bear market yet I hope this gets you thinking.....Enjoy.... I would love to hear yur Views
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Bitcoin Weekly - PA on Cycle Base Support line and bouncing. We are now in the last week of November and we may have hit the Low / Bottom and produced that Red candle that was suggested at month start. PA Could Wick down in a Flash crash to Kill Longs that are mounting, before a sustained push higher in December, so remain Cautious. This is just My opinion..It could obviously Go either way but we can see PA sitting on that Blue line, that is LONG Term support from way back in 2013 PA Fell though that line Once only, in late 2015 and recovered The Weekly MACD The weekly MACD is still dropping but is now approaching oversold. This has begun to open the door to it turning up. It will not drop forever We need to watch the Histogram and wait for that to change colour, showing us that the MACD (Yellow) is getting closer to the signal line ( Red ), The Weekly RSI While the RSI is below Neutral, it is NOT fully over Sold yet but is a lot lower than previously. AND we can see that it has turned Flat, stopped dropping. This last week of November, PA could see a slight rise and so the RSI is the first thing we see moving higher. So, For now, I think we have seen the worse of the Blood letting and now, we level out, maybe rise some, with the potential for a Flash crash to take out leverage. I am fully waiting for December to start now..... We are nearly out of the Woods.....Hang in there I am not to sure how much influence the FED and its Rates decision will have over all. We have seen in the past how BTC PA will often move independent of Rate Rises / Drops. The chart above shows BTC PA and the Rate changes.... There ar elots of influences but , well, I am not to sure Bitcoin is finished just yet. December and January will tell us for sure.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC: Black Friday Crash & The Road to 74k. H&S in the making?We are seeing a true Black Friday on Bitcoin today 😵😱🤬—price is diving below 82k, and the 126k top feels like jusst history. Looking at the 1D structure, the market is clearly aiming for a "hard reset," magnetically pulled toward the 1.0 Fibonacci level around 74,600 USDT. We’ve already smashed through key supports, including the 0.786 Fib, which usually opens up a highway for a full retracement. In my view, this drop is setting the stage to build the Right Shoulder of a massive Head and Shoulders pattern. If t he 74k zone holds—and it’s a major technical support—I expect a demand reaction there (marked with the green arrow). The target for this relief rally would be a return to the 100k area (0.5 Fib), completing the shoulder structure before any potential further downside. The situation is confirmed by Trading Cipher X. Money Flow is flashing thick red, signaling that big capital is still exiting the market, while the wide momentum waves at the bottom indicate heavy selling pressure. There are no reversal signals yet; the daily candles (basically bearish Marubozu) and rising bars on the cumulative volume (WWV) confirm that the bears are in total control right now. Game Plan: I’m not catching falling knives here. I’m patiently waiting for the price to hit the "kill zone" at 74,600 USD. Only there, upon confirmation (I’m looking for a bullish divergence on TCX), will I look for a Long entry to play the bounce. On the flip side, mid-term Shorts will only become attractive if we revisit the 98k-100k zone. Keep your eyes on 74k—it’s make or break for the bulls in the coming weeks.
Short
by trading_club_btc
1
Bitcoin Weekly SMA - Next Level support at the 100 SMA 83K and..** Candle Colours are effected by a Bull Bear indicator, indicating Bull Bear sentiment... Note THIS week is the First BEAR week Candle in a very long time, since March 2025 Bitcoin Lost the 50 SMA ( RED ), first time this Cycle. And we see the 100 SMA ( BLUE ) running parallel and so, this s logically the next level of support should we drop lower. What is the relevance of the 50 & 100 SMA to Bitcoin PA This is the Bitcoin Chart since December 2013 The Labels above are the day counts from ATH, to the SMA crossing Bearish ( 50 dropping below the 100 To when the SMA cross Bullish ( 50 rises back above the 100 ) and then to ATH The Lower day count is from when the 50 crosses above the 100 to when it crosses back below. And Many things point to the fact that we may well have past the ATH point and are now entering the Bear Market. Loosing the 50 backs this up to many extents. So now we look to the 100 to see if PA holds 83K or not. Interesting to note, that because of how Calmly this "Cycle" has preformed ,, Haw parallel the 50 and 100 are to each other, we are reaching gown to the 100 Much quicker than previous occasions. Very interested to see what happens. SOPR has just flashed a BEARISH signal People are capitulating, selling in Fear and making Losses. A Sure sign of the BEAR. But there Many things that support the idea that this is NOT the end of this Run to True ATH. For me, this is helped by the fact that the RSI is so near OVERSOLD that it will RISE. Not a Guarantee though But we also have the Weekly MACD down low too You can see on this chart how the Histogram tends to find support on this level The MACD line has Crossed below Neutral. We are in an area for a bounce. This may not happen and it is impossible to predict this We need to continue watching and see where the PA goes on that 100 SMA I have been doing TA for many years now and I have to say, this time, Things are a lot more conveluted than normal..Many conflicting signals.... We have Short Term and Long Term ideas presenting cases for both Bullish and Bearish scenarios. So, We wait to see what happens on the 100 Look at the Long Term chart and see what happens when the PA crosses the 100 ( Blue ) We need that Bounce for the Bulls PA Drops below, BEARS
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Technical analysis of bitcoin key levels and wedge chart pattern1. Trend Structure The descending trendline (Resistance line) at the top of the chart remains valid. The price has repeatedly faced rejection at this level, indicating that the medium-term downtrend is still intact. 2. Key Price Levels and Indicators 50-week EMA The price has recently recorded its third downward break below the 50-week EMA. From a traditional technical perspective, this is viewed as a signal that strengthens the possibility of a medium- to long-term bearish shift. POC (Point of Control) The mid-range POC is acting as a strong supply zone, and recent rebound attempts have also failed to break above this level decisively. 3. Liquidity Zones Two major liquidity zones are marked in the upper and mid sections of the chart. Liquidity zone near 112k (upper zone) A cluster of large liquidity pockets and liquidation points If a short-term rebound occurs, this is the first upside target likely to be tested Liquidity zone near 102k (mid zone) Overlaps with the 4h FVG, making it a level closely watched by both buyers and sellers 4. FVG (Fair Value Gap) Multiple FVGs are present on the 4-hour timeframe, with some already filled. Unfilled FVGs have a high probability of being revisited as the market corrects in the future. 5. CME Gap All weekday CME gaps have already been filled and may act as short-term resistance. A weekend gap forms when Monday’s CME opening price starts above 95.4K. 6. Current Market Structure Interpretation The price is currently attempting a rebound from the lower boundary of the downtrend. However, several resistance layers overlap—POC, FVG zones, and trendline resistance—raising the likelihood of heavy selling pressure on any upward move. In the short term, volatility consolidation is expected within the 96k–100k range. 7. Potential Formation of a Lower Wedge Pattern The price has broken below the lower boundary of the wedge pattern, accompanied by rising volume. A short-term rebound is likely, and if the price re-enters the wedge, further upside momentum may follow. If the lower trendline is not reclaimed, the structure may shift into a range after a retest. 8. USDT.D Chart Analysis The price has once again touched the upper boundary of a downtrend line that has persisted for over a year. Downward pressure on the USDT dominance chart suggests potential upward momentum for Bitcoin. Technically, this zone offers conditions supportive of a short-term rebound. 9. Summary The medium-term trend remains bearish, with the ongoing breakdown below the 50-week EMA reinforcing a sustained bearish outlook. A short-term bottoming attempt is visible, but dense supply overhead limits the strength of any rebound. FVGs, POC, and liquidity zones overlap near the current price region, increasing the probability of heightened volatility. If you found this content helpful, feel free to support with a boost (🚀) and a comment (💬). Your encouragement helps drive better analysis and more valuable content. Follow the page to receive notifications (🔔) for future posts.
by BIGTAKER
30
Very Simple BITCOIN Daily - Hope for the weekend existsThis is a chart I posted some weeks ago, showing the possiblr results of the classic W pattern printed by Bitcoin We seem to be playing this out and so a Low, ultimate low of around 88K exists and I will not do anything till we pass that point, IF we pass that point. And the MACD gives us hope that we may not do so MACD has reached the lower trendline of its descending channel and at the same time, has reached the LOW in Oversold, that Bitcoin bounced off previously This is not a Guarantee but it does certainly offer hope for some recovery....and we would have to wait and see if that is sustained or not. But this IS playing out Exactly to plan and has confluence with what I said may happen at the beginning of the month For me, this is NOT the END.... but near the beginning of the next push BUY BITCOIN
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
How important is This Weekly Candle close today ? VERY Really simple to see. On 2 previous occasions this cycle, were the PA has reached down and touched the 50 Week SMA (Red), it started the next week with a Push and followed with a Green week Candle. Yesterday, PA dropped below that 50 SMA and today, it has risetn o sit on it, leaving a wick lower, like on the other occasions. Zoomed in is easier to see WE NEED TI KEEP THIS This chart shows us two other things we should pay attentin to. First is that the day count above is the expected point where the ATH is reached on a cycle, using the average of previous cycles, from when the 50 SMA rises above the 100 ( blue) and goes to ATH. We had the current ATH Ver near this point. Secondly, That Blue Arc is the Arc f resistance that has rejected EVERY ATH since BTC started. We need to rise above this this cycle or PA will be driven down into Negativity, as shown below I have NO DOUBT we can do this But we need to start by keeping the PA above that 50 week SMA All eyes on BITCOIN
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal