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Bitcointechnicalanalysis

DONT PANIC BITCOIN - Bulls maybe still in control This is just a SHORT term Idea. Lomger term has yet to be fully seen, though I have y ideas, as published in the Monthyl candle colour posts. This is a 4 hour Bitcoin INDEX chaart with a Fib Retracement See how the First Drop, obviously is at 1 The 2nd Fast Drop went to the 0.768 - ulls HELD the Step step Higher. And we are in the Middle of the 3rd Fast Drop and currently, we iare around the 0.618 Will the Bulls Hold this next step higher ? We have to wait and See But if they do, then I can see a push higher, maybe in the last Half of December Time Will Tell.....
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
An old BITCOIN idea played out and now, we could see a recovery I posted this idea back in early October and, as we see, the bearish W patter played out. We had had an earlier Bullish W patter ( or Dounle Bottom) The chances were PA would go either way on the 2nd and the Measured moves are shown with Vertical lines. As you see, we went to nearly exactly the RED Bearish Measured move this time And so now, we can expect what ? The Daily MACD The Daily MACD Fell Deep into OverSold and has been recovering, is still below Neutral. Lower timeframes are also below Neutral so the ability to push higher exists Daily Volume Delta Volume Deltais an indicator that analyzes intrabar volume and price fluctuations to estimate the difference (delta) between buying and selling pressure within each chart candle We can see that Selling is reducing since Mid October and that The Green Candles show us that Buying is picking up. We will very possibly have to wait till we get the inflation figures for the USA later this week, before we get a real move. There ismore than enough ability to push higher again but a Drop down to the 70K area is also possible.. Remain cautious for now...... Till we get a clear signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
4 hour BITCOIN Update - Bulls looking Good UPDATE to the 4 hour Bitcoin post yesterday, were we talked about how the Bulls have been stepping up the Fib retracement Ladder. To remind you, See the first major Drop took us to the 1 retrace Fib line, Obviously. The second, took us to the 0.768. And as of NOW, The Bulls appear to be holding the 0.618l. The Bulls are doing Well. The Yellow 200 SMA is the next problem for PA, should the bulls carry PA higher. That is around 90K BUT this is a Bear flag on a higher Time Frames. We are still in a "No mans Land" right now..... PA can go either way I have BULLISH CAUTION I would also like you to look at what happened in Early 2025 This Daily chart shows us that Early 2025 also had a pull back, that began ending in a Bear Flag, we dropped to support and then pushed higher. A total drop of -32.5% We have just done -35.8% We are likely to Dip a little lower maybe but I am not yet convinced that we are in a Full on Bear market just yet. For me, we still have hope while PA remains above that Long Term line of support, that now sits on the 0.768 Fib Line....at around 83351 usdt I wait patiently.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Weekly BEARISH trigger to watch in the coming weeks 9 SMA Orange 14 SMA Green 50 SMA Red This is really sinple. Bitcoin PA has followed a number of previous cycle Fractels to one degree or other and NOW. we seem to be repeating the post 2021 ATH idea. To recap on aprevious post. Note how the 2 ATH in 2021 were within the o to 236 Fin entrancement range. 2021 ATH Weekly chart Also note the day count from a short term recovery after post ATH Drop. Also notice the Crossover of the 9 and the 50 SMA. We reached a high, another retrace, then a push higher above all 3 SMA and then Full on BEAR We seem to be playing a Veyr similar pattern right now. We are just entering that period were the 50 crosses the 9 The small circle is the approx area of the next high, possibly afyer a dip. And then, the projected similar day count to where PA drops under that 236 retracement line. For me THAT will signal the return of a bear market. If that happens, that is around MARCH 2026 We need to play Close attention here....
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin reaction to FED RATE choices since 2021 It is really very simple Back in 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin PA did what it was intended to do and rate decisions did not directly inpact Bitcoin at all. We had the traditional 9-% pull back, as we had had in previous cycle. The impact in the rising Rates was on companies in the Crypto Sphere, that suffered as rates were increased. Repaying th eloans became intolerable. Lets look at this cycle, from late 2022 to current day Despite Steep Rate rises in late 2022, Early 2023, Bitcoin Price and trading Volume INCREASED.# In Late 2022, you can see that a steep 75 point increase did not phase BTC from trying to rise but the impact on crypto companies and Banks began scaring people and the next 75 point rise tipped many over But Bitcoin found a floor and remained there. Then we had a 50 point rise and PA remained were it was...NO IMPACT> Then we had a series of 3 x 25 point rises. Bitcoin Rose through the first of those and fought back in the other 2, dipping slightly as the OverSold MACD cooled off ( this was on lower time frames )......The ONLT reason for the Range to lower prices Weekly MACD The Green box shows the period that BTC PA ranged, March to September 2023 THIS was the defining period for BITCOIN Once it became cheaper to borrow nd ETF's were allowed. off we went. Is Cheaper borrowing likely to sustain Bitcoins rise ? OF COURSE But please remain cautious. 100K -> 110K usdt is the line of possible rejection and has potential to enter Bitcoin into a Deeper Bear. REMEMBER. BITCOIN is NOT effected by Rates, as we saw in early 2023, and If a BEAR Market is required, then it will happen no matter if Rates are lower. For Me, I think we will see a rise, a Dip and then, around March next year,we will see the defining moment that will decree where we REALLY go MACRO events can always accelerate that
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Bitcoin Daily zgainst resistamce- with ability to break through Today we hear about the USA Federal Reserve decisdion on interest rates. The expectation is for them to be Lowered. BUT there is a chance of NO change. "Lines" dropping from Left to Right are Fib Circles. Bitcoin PA is up against the 236 Fib Circle that has been recent resistance. We also have the trend line that has been rejecting PA since ATH. The Arroe points to the intersection of the two, the point of ;east resistance ( Aroow ). PA tried yesterday to break through and Got Rejected on First attempt. Just below is the faint dashed liner. This is Cycle support, with origin in Summer 2023 and could be enough support to keep PA trying to break through that 236 Fib circle. And the Rate decision today will CERTAINLY be a major part in this move. The Daily MACD Shows plently of Room to move higher. The 4 hour also has room to move higher The Weekly is still falling byt very Very Oversold now. Strength for longer term moves exist The Daily RSI Very similar to MACD Room on most Time Frames for continued moves higher. So, We wait for the FED> I am beginning to get that lovely feeling that things will turn GREEN again very soon.....providing the USA allows it ;-( I am uncertain as to how I feel that Bitcoin is now such a Corporate "Tool" but that us where we are.....
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Analytics: market overview and forecasts WHAT HAPPENED? Last week, for bitcoin, we reached the upper limit of a significant support zone and almost immediately received a powerful boost. This led to a change in the local trend to an upward one. As part of the growth, the resistance of $94,000-$97,500 (volume zone) was reached, from which the correction began. Now we've pushed off from the support of $87,800-$86,400 (volume zone) and maintain the upward context. WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT? The movement potential is aimed at updating the local maximum. To fully reverse the trend, the buyer needs to demonstrate more strength. The $94,000-$97,500 zone remains relevant, as a significant part of it hasn't been tested. The implementation of a positive scenario is possible both through a confident breakdown of this range, and through the formation of a weak correction in terms of volume and price action. A negative factor for the development of the long rally this week is the selling pressure on the spot market, as seen by the cumulative delta. The situation is better in futures, but the market needs more "fuel" for a final turnaround. Alternative scenario: with a strong defense of the nearest resistance, a sideways trend may form in the range of $84,000-$94,000. Buy Zones $87,800–$86,400 (volume zone) $84,000–$82,000 (volume anomalies) Sell Zones $94,000–$97,500 (volume zone) $101,000–$104,000 (accumulated volumes) $105,800–$106,600 (local resistance) IMPORTANT DATES We're following these macroeconomic developments this week: • Tuesday, December 9, 15:00 (UTC) — publication of the number of open vacancies in the labor market (JOLTS) USA for October; • Wednesday, December 10, 2:45 (UTC) — announcement of Canada's interest rate decision; • Wednesday, December 10, 19:00 (UTC) — US FOMC statement and economic forecasts, as well as the announcement of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision; • Wednesday, December 10, 19:30 (UTC) — US FOMC press Conference; • Thursday, December 11, 9:00 (UTC) — press conference of the National Bank of Switzerland; • Thursday, December 11, 13:30 (UTC) — publication of the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week; Friday, December 12, 7:00 (UTC) — publication of the UK GDP for October, as well as the German consumer price index for November. *This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience. #analytics
by Crypto_robotics
BTC/USDT Analysis. Reached Key Resistance Hello everyone! CryptoRobotics trader-analyst here, and this is your daily market update. Yesterday, Bitcoin reached the important resistance area at $94,000–$97,500 (high-volume zone). At this level, buyer price action weakened noticeably, and cumulative delta shows a clear dominance of sellers — indicating that upward momentum is fading locally. Given this context, we expect a correction toward the nearest support zones, from which the uptrend may resume with targets above $100,000. A move back into the $84,000–$82,000 (volume anomalies) zone from current prices would cast doubt on the strength of the current bullish wave, making this scenario unfavorable for continued growth. Buy Zones $91,000–$89,800 (mirror volume zone) $87,800–$86,400 (volume zone) $84,000–$82,000 (volume anomalies) Sell Zones $94,000–$97,500 (volume zone) $101,000–$104,000 (accumulated volumes) $105,800–$106,600 (local resistance) This publication is not financial advice.
by Crypto_robotics
1
It Looks like Bitcoin is repeating the 2021 ATH Moves and SMA 50 Week SMA ( RED ) 100 Week SMA ( BLUE ) In the Chart above, take Note of the Drop in PA after the first ATH and how PA bounced off the 50 week SMA ( RED ), Bounced up to a New ATH and then Dropped back, fell through the 50 and is currently Bouncing off the 100 Week SMA ( BLUE ) Also notice the 91 day count, which takes us to March 2026 Also note how all this has happened between the 0 and 0.236 Fib retracement lines. Now lets look at what happened in 2021 The Drop in PA after the first ATH and how PA bounced off the 50 SMA area , Bounced up to a New ATH and then Dropped back, fell through the 50 and Bounced off the 100 SMA Almost EXACTLY what we are currently Seeing. That bounce, that we maybe currently recreating, lasted 91 days before it fell through and into the Bear market. Notice how PA got rejected by the 21 SMA ( GREEN ) before it fell through the 236 Fib line For me, that Bear Market began as soon as PA fell through the 236 Fib line. Should we recreate that 2021 sequence, it may look something like this We currently have not yet returned to the 236 Fib Line as we did in 2021.This gives us a little more Room to move thankfully. But we should certainly keep an eye on that 21 Week SMA. Bells will Ring when the 21 crosses under the 50 This may get invalidated if PA rises and remains above the Jan 2025 ATH at around 108K usdt We Wait, Time will tell
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Close Color since 2011 and patternsNovember closed RED as expected and so we have continued to follow Sequence in the left Box, mentioned in the October post. The left Box shows the only similar monthly Candle sequence, similar to the one we currently have. If you look closely, it is also a very similar "Curve" shape. Descent to low, rise, flatten out. The Candle Sequence to see is Red, Green. 2 Red. 4 Green, 1 red, 1 Greeno 1 red That Sequence was followed by a larger Red Candle, which we have just also done. The Thin down facing arrow in the left Box, points to the equvilant candle to the one we just closed, thought the month was August and not a November. The left box starting in September 2022 and the Right Box starts in December 2024. These Sequences run for 11 Months so Far.. This is the only 2 occasions this sequence has ever happened in Bitcoin history...and they are Both in the same "Bull Run" And I will just mention that the Left Box was the recovery period after the 2022 Bear market. A Very positive period. If we continue this Sequence, we should see a Green Candle in December, though maybe not a large one. Some charts point to a Red start to December, so remain cautious. We should also remember that a pattern workss untill it Stops...but the longer it runs, the higher the chance of that point being reached. Just to Recap from the October post of this Series..... "The Red November in 2011 was the bottom and was the start of Bitcoins 2 year push to ATH. The Red one in November 2022 marked the Bottom of the Bear, though December was red but a small candle. Nearly half of the Red Novembers called the Bottom of a Bear, a turning point in market behaviour." (There had been only 5 Red Novembers at the time of writing) What is also very interesting is how the November 2022 Red candle was approx -27% draw down. (Wicks included) -> the following December in 2022 closed a small Red candle. The Red November we just closed was also approx -27% However, To follow the Color sequence, we will expect a Green December. Of the Previous Red NOVEMBER closes, we have only ever had ONE Green December, way back in 2011, The Odds do point to a Red December close....but hopefully a small one. If this happens, the color sequence gets broken but I will look at what happened in early 2023 as a possible follow on. The November, December, January candles for sure.... Looking Forward. Previous December closes. 7 Green to 7 Red - A 50 - 50 mix. Of the previous 7 Red December Closes, 4 were followed by a Green January, the last one being in December 2022 and was followed by a Lovely Green January, marking the start of the current push higher by Bitcoin from 15K usdt low to over 120K usdt. That January Candle was over 50% rise. Only one Red December led us into a Deep Bear market, the others signalled change..... So, While the odds, technically, point to a Red December close, to follow previous moves and sentiments, this may not be a bad thing. A Red December would break the sequence we have been talking about, as the next in sequence is a GREEN candle. And so were the next 6 Months. So, December Close will answer Many questions and is, once again, a pivotal month. The Sentiment for the entire year to follow will be set by this months Candle Close.. We currently have a number of pointers suggesting this is an End to a "Bear"....and this Draw back right now has seen PA fall below a number of Key support levels but interestingly, we have got no where near the "traditional " - 80% Bear draw down. Very confused signals, hinting at moves in either direction. We have to wait......as ever.... But I am VERY BULLISH As it stands, a Red or a Green December has the potential to be Good, providing that, obviously, a BEAR market is not confirmed. My preference is fr a small Red candle this month........
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Historical Bitcoin ATH drawdown to Fib retrace and % decline Bitcoin ATH drawdown to Fib retrace and % decline 2011 to 0.236 retrace = =92.41% 2013 to 0.236 retrace = -78.27% 2017 to 0.382 retrace = -82.20% 2021 to 0.5 retrace = -76.40% Also note how PA bounces off the 50 Week SMA ( Red ) after every ATH except for in 2011. I have only included the 2011 High as it also reached down the the 0.236 after ATH. But it Must be remembered that the 2011 High is NOT in any channels. It did however, become the support and origin of the current Lower line of Long Term support. Every other ATH had a draw down to the 50 week SMA, a bounce higher and then fell through the SMA. (2017 is slightly different but this is still valid ) The 2021 Bounce led to a new ATH for the first time. Currently from Current 2025 ATH, we have still not reached the 0.236 on the current draw Down but we have fallen through the 50 week SMA for the first time this Cycle. This is VERY different from previous Cycles. You will also note how PA has previously bounced off the 50 SMA 3 times this cycle already, on or very near a Fib line.. Again, Very different behaviour. However, as you can see from the main chart, we have used Every single Fib line on the way up. It was fairly similar in the lead up to the 2017 ATH. To me, this validates these Fib lines. But What I want to look at is how the 2021 PA went to an ATH, retraced back to its own 0.236 line, on the 50 Week SMA ( Red), bounced to a New ATH and then Draw down, a small bounce and fell through the 50 SMA. That second draw down did not reach the 236 > it bounced up till it collided with the 50 week SMA and then went into a full on Bear. All that happened between the 0 and the 0.236 Fib Retrace lines, untill it fell through . To many extents, Bitcoin PA is repeating this. We hit a new ATH in Jan 2025, retreated to the current 0.236 and the 50 Week SMA, bounced to a New ATH in October and have been in retreat since, never yet reaching the 0.236 again. I am currently looking to see when current PA hits the 50 week SMA. The 50 week SMA will be Met, at current trajectory around the 100K usdt mark. Then, if we follow the 2021 pattern, PA will get rejected and we will eventually head to the 44K zone on the 0.5 Fib retrace. Which also happens to be the line that PA bounced off in 2021, its 0.236 fib line. That is around a -63% retrace. LESS than previous retracements. That follows the 2021 route. Current PA is also stil running between the 0 and the 0.236 fib retracement lines. As the 2 ATH's did in 2021. We do seem to be following a simialr Technical pattern. Look back though the other ATH and see how the 236 was used. BUT if we look back to the previous Fib retrace lines..We seem to be going to the next Fib retracement level sown after each ATH, before a meaningful bounce. 2013 to 0.236 retrace 2017 to 0.382 retrace 2021 to 0.5 retrace If we follow This, the next for this cycle could be the 0.618, which sits at 34,966 usdt I do yet think this will Happen and 7here is NO guareantee this will happen but I have found it very interesting how PA is repeating a number of patterns, certainly, currently, the similarity to the 2021 ATH structures. Another was From October 2021 till June 2025, we had PA running a near perfect copy of the 2013 to 2017 Fracel. This has now changed and we follow a later route This Can obviously get Broken completely by Fundamentals....which are Mental right now. And then, we have the Shouts of "This time is Different. " YES and NO. As this post shows, there are many similarities and yet, at the same time, The way PA has reacted and moved this cycle, if it is a cycle, is also unique,,, And another reason for that, is studied in earlier posts about "The Blur Arc of resistance" And we may well just keep on going to a New higher ATH in 2026. While the current draw down has been painful, there is no confirmed Bear market yet I hope this gets you thinking.....Enjoy.... I would love to hear yur Views
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Bitcoin Weekly - PA on Cycle Base Support line and bouncing. We are now in the last week of November and we may have hit the Low / Bottom and produced that Red candle that was suggested at month start. PA Could Wick down in a Flash crash to Kill Longs that are mounting, before a sustained push higher in December, so remain Cautious. This is just My opinion..It could obviously Go either way but we can see PA sitting on that Blue line, that is LONG Term support from way back in 2013 PA Fell though that line Once only, in late 2015 and recovered The Weekly MACD The weekly MACD is still dropping but is now approaching oversold. This has begun to open the door to it turning up. It will not drop forever We need to watch the Histogram and wait for that to change colour, showing us that the MACD (Yellow) is getting closer to the signal line ( Red ), The Weekly RSI While the RSI is below Neutral, it is NOT fully over Sold yet but is a lot lower than previously. AND we can see that it has turned Flat, stopped dropping. This last week of November, PA could see a slight rise and so the RSI is the first thing we see moving higher. So, For now, I think we have seen the worse of the Blood letting and now, we level out, maybe rise some, with the potential for a Flash crash to take out leverage. I am fully waiting for December to start now..... We are nearly out of the Woods.....Hang in there I am not to sure how much influence the FED and its Rates decision will have over all. We have seen in the past how BTC PA will often move independent of Rate Rises / Drops. The chart above shows BTC PA and the Rate changes.... There ar elots of influences but , well, I am not to sure Bitcoin is finished just yet. December and January will tell us for sure.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC: Black Friday Crash & The Road to 74k. H&S in the making?We are seeing a true Black Friday on Bitcoin today 😵😱🤬—price is diving below 82k, and the 126k top feels like jusst history. Looking at the 1D structure, the market is clearly aiming for a "hard reset," magnetically pulled toward the 1.0 Fibonacci level around 74,600 USDT. We’ve already smashed through key supports, including the 0.786 Fib, which usually opens up a highway for a full retracement. In my view, this drop is setting the stage to build the Right Shoulder of a massive Head and Shoulders pattern. If t he 74k zone holds—and it’s a major technical support—I expect a demand reaction there (marked with the green arrow). The target for this relief rally would be a return to the 100k area (0.5 Fib), completing the shoulder structure before any potential further downside. The situation is confirmed by Trading Cipher X. Money Flow is flashing thick red, signaling that big capital is still exiting the market, while the wide momentum waves at the bottom indicate heavy selling pressure. There are no reversal signals yet; the daily candles (basically bearish Marubozu) and rising bars on the cumulative volume (WWV) confirm that the bears are in total control right now. Game Plan: I’m not catching falling knives here. I’m patiently waiting for the price to hit the "kill zone" at 74,600 USD. Only there, upon confirmation (I’m looking for a bullish divergence on TCX), will I look for a Long entry to play the bounce. On the flip side, mid-term Shorts will only become attractive if we revisit the 98k-100k zone. Keep your eyes on 74k—it’s make or break for the bulls in the coming weeks.
Short
by trading_club_btc
1
Bitcoin Weekly SMA - Next Level support at the 100 SMA 83K and..** Candle Colours are effected by a Bull Bear indicator, indicating Bull Bear sentiment... Note THIS week is the First BEAR week Candle in a very long time, since March 2025 Bitcoin Lost the 50 SMA ( RED ), first time this Cycle. And we see the 100 SMA ( BLUE ) running parallel and so, this s logically the next level of support should we drop lower. What is the relevance of the 50 & 100 SMA to Bitcoin PA This is the Bitcoin Chart since December 2013 The Labels above are the day counts from ATH, to the SMA crossing Bearish ( 50 dropping below the 100 To when the SMA cross Bullish ( 50 rises back above the 100 ) and then to ATH The Lower day count is from when the 50 crosses above the 100 to when it crosses back below. And Many things point to the fact that we may well have past the ATH point and are now entering the Bear Market. Loosing the 50 backs this up to many extents. So now we look to the 100 to see if PA holds 83K or not. Interesting to note, that because of how Calmly this "Cycle" has preformed ,, Haw parallel the 50 and 100 are to each other, we are reaching gown to the 100 Much quicker than previous occasions. Very interested to see what happens. SOPR has just flashed a BEARISH signal People are capitulating, selling in Fear and making Losses. A Sure sign of the BEAR. But there Many things that support the idea that this is NOT the end of this Run to True ATH. For me, this is helped by the fact that the RSI is so near OVERSOLD that it will RISE. Not a Guarantee though But we also have the Weekly MACD down low too You can see on this chart how the Histogram tends to find support on this level The MACD line has Crossed below Neutral. We are in an area for a bounce. This may not happen and it is impossible to predict this We need to continue watching and see where the PA goes on that 100 SMA I have been doing TA for many years now and I have to say, this time, Things are a lot more conveluted than normal..Many conflicting signals.... We have Short Term and Long Term ideas presenting cases for both Bullish and Bearish scenarios. So, We wait to see what happens on the 100 Look at the Long Term chart and see what happens when the PA crosses the 100 ( Blue ) We need that Bounce for the Bulls PA Drops below, BEARS
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Technical analysis of bitcoin key levels and wedge chart pattern1. Trend Structure The descending trendline (Resistance line) at the top of the chart remains valid. The price has repeatedly faced rejection at this level, indicating that the medium-term downtrend is still intact. 2. Key Price Levels and Indicators 50-week EMA The price has recently recorded its third downward break below the 50-week EMA. From a traditional technical perspective, this is viewed as a signal that strengthens the possibility of a medium- to long-term bearish shift. POC (Point of Control) The mid-range POC is acting as a strong supply zone, and recent rebound attempts have also failed to break above this level decisively. 3. Liquidity Zones Two major liquidity zones are marked in the upper and mid sections of the chart. Liquidity zone near 112k (upper zone) A cluster of large liquidity pockets and liquidation points If a short-term rebound occurs, this is the first upside target likely to be tested Liquidity zone near 102k (mid zone) Overlaps with the 4h FVG, making it a level closely watched by both buyers and sellers 4. FVG (Fair Value Gap) Multiple FVGs are present on the 4-hour timeframe, with some already filled. Unfilled FVGs have a high probability of being revisited as the market corrects in the future. 5. CME Gap All weekday CME gaps have already been filled and may act as short-term resistance. A weekend gap forms when Monday’s CME opening price starts above 95.4K. 6. Current Market Structure Interpretation The price is currently attempting a rebound from the lower boundary of the downtrend. However, several resistance layers overlap—POC, FVG zones, and trendline resistance—raising the likelihood of heavy selling pressure on any upward move. In the short term, volatility consolidation is expected within the 96k–100k range. 7. Potential Formation of a Lower Wedge Pattern The price has broken below the lower boundary of the wedge pattern, accompanied by rising volume. A short-term rebound is likely, and if the price re-enters the wedge, further upside momentum may follow. If the lower trendline is not reclaimed, the structure may shift into a range after a retest. 8. USDT.D Chart Analysis The price has once again touched the upper boundary of a downtrend line that has persisted for over a year. Downward pressure on the USDT dominance chart suggests potential upward momentum for Bitcoin. Technically, this zone offers conditions supportive of a short-term rebound. 9. Summary The medium-term trend remains bearish, with the ongoing breakdown below the 50-week EMA reinforcing a sustained bearish outlook. A short-term bottoming attempt is visible, but dense supply overhead limits the strength of any rebound. FVGs, POC, and liquidity zones overlap near the current price region, increasing the probability of heightened volatility. If you found this content helpful, feel free to support with a boost (🚀) and a comment (💬). Your encouragement helps drive better analysis and more valuable content. Follow the page to receive notifications (🔔) for future posts.
by BIGTAKER
30
Very Simple BITCOIN Daily - Hope for the weekend existsThis is a chart I posted some weeks ago, showing the possiblr results of the classic W pattern printed by Bitcoin We seem to be playing this out and so a Low, ultimate low of around 88K exists and I will not do anything till we pass that point, IF we pass that point. And the MACD gives us hope that we may not do so MACD has reached the lower trendline of its descending channel and at the same time, has reached the LOW in Oversold, that Bitcoin bounced off previously This is not a Guarantee but it does certainly offer hope for some recovery....and we would have to wait and see if that is sustained or not. But this IS playing out Exactly to plan and has confluence with what I said may happen at the beginning of the month For me, this is NOT the END.... but near the beginning of the next push BUY BITCOIN
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
How important is This Weekly Candle close today ? VERY Really simple to see. On 2 previous occasions this cycle, were the PA has reached down and touched the 50 Week SMA (Red), it started the next week with a Push and followed with a Green week Candle. Yesterday, PA dropped below that 50 SMA and today, it has risetn o sit on it, leaving a wick lower, like on the other occasions. Zoomed in is easier to see WE NEED TI KEEP THIS This chart shows us two other things we should pay attentin to. First is that the day count above is the expected point where the ATH is reached on a cycle, using the average of previous cycles, from when the 50 SMA rises above the 100 ( blue) and goes to ATH. We had the current ATH Ver near this point. Secondly, That Blue Arc is the Arc f resistance that has rejected EVERY ATH since BTC started. We need to rise above this this cycle or PA will be driven down into Negativity, as shown below I have NO DOUBT we can do this But we need to start by keeping the PA above that 50 week SMA All eyes on BITCOIN
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin PA still in Range, bounced off the Low....STOP PANICING This Daily chart VERY clearly shows us all hw BTC PA once again bounced off a Long Term support line that has existed since the beginning of this cycle higher back in Jan 2023 On this chart we can see what happened last time.. Left circle. Is it Guaranteed ? NO but on the smaller time frames we can see how PA has also brpken pver that next line and is about to retest it as support. Along with this we can see the Daily MACD is turning bullish from the Low Overbought zone. So we have the ability for a sustained bounce but somethign that may make the bulls rest on a level og their choice is the FED meeting next week, 28, 29. On the 29th, we will hear about Rate decisions. It does need to be fully understood that Lower rates may not absolutely lead to massive gains. There are some very complicated issues with regard to Corporate Borrowing and the knock on effect could harm markets. Time will tell but one thing I am sure of is how Bitcoin , to me, does still remain bullish, holding support on Key eves
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Now on Last reserve of Support. it MUST bounce hereThe right cirxle is where i expected BTC PA to reach before it bounced, as it did on the left circle. But It Fell out of Range and has reached this line Early. the BIG question is now, Will it bounce ? And if it does, the previous line of support....wi that now be resistance ? It needs to & maintain any semblance of Bullishness....Or we will likely see 94K and truly Test the Bulls. I do have a BUY order down there. Why Not, I will be surprised if we get there but I relish the idea of buying there again The weekly RSI certainly shows the ability to rise as it drop lower The Daily RSI is also in a Good shape. So we can bounce from here but we have heavy resistance overhead now around 109K I mentioned this date range ( 12 - 15 Oct ) at the begining of th emonth...and it has played out but, now, we need that bounce higher and up and out of Range OR we could see a drop below and possible enter a mini Bear for the rest of the month. Maybe longer. As always, TIME WILL TELL>
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN now in Cycle ATH Zone but is BTC still in Cycles ?I first drew this chart back in 2024 and it is amaxing how things have played out, The Numbers in Grey boxes are the number of Days the 50 SMA ( red) has been above and below PA. The Blue, Below PA is the day count for PA Cycle High to cycle Low and Back to Cycle high. We have already past the "High Low" Day count for this cycle ATH and we are now on the Zone for the 50 SMA day count ATH. The peojected date for this ATH is 13 October. Note how Similar PA & 50 SMA is in the 2013 - 2017 Cycle. I was also running a PA Fractal chart showing similarities to PA and we can see how close it was until February this year For me, the reason we went "Flat" from February onwards is simly because of the Long Term resistance over head.... a line that has rejected EVERY Bitcoin ATH = this is all explained in previous posts. See the Blue Arc. It is that Blue Arc we need to Cross over. This Arc has kept PA Flat this cycle...... Looking at a Zoomed in Chart, we can see how that 50 SMA is a line of strong support. Should PA retreat, the 50 SMA is at around 103K at this time. The MACD is just under but in a zone where PA has retreated from This does NOT automatical Mean PA will Drop from here. Though on lower Time Frames, MACD is up High in Oversold. However, as the 4 hour shows us, It is already dropping from OverSold and yet PA has hit a high Divergence is in play One thing that dies hint at a pull back is the RSI being up in Oversold on a Daily chart But it should be understood, RSI Can range High or Low So, are we in Cycle Still ? If we are, we should expect a beginning of a BEAR market in the next few weeks. But we have not really seen the "Top" pattern and Profit taking yet..... Until that happens, I really am inclined to believe we have broken the cycle patterns.for a number of reasons. For instance, the MVRV Z Score This has not even past the levels seen in previous Runs BUT as a precaution, it is worth noting that Dash orange line, that starts where the Nov 2021 ATH Was. We have been rejected from that level already this run But we Still have room to get back up to that level at the mooment. The Main reason i feel things are different are that Blue Arc I mentioned earlier. We HAVE to break above that and remain there..... We are too close at this moment and a Bear market WILL take us back below that HUGE line of Very Very Strong resistance. The Daily chart below shows this We need one more push to take us Higher, to give us Room to remain above, even when Bitcoin Does correct . Note that 3 Fin extension on the last chart posted. We just got above the 6. We need to Rise far enough over that for it to act as support ewhn retested. 3, 6, 9 9 Fib extension at around 180K Just saying NEW CYCLES ARE BEGINNING
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
1
Why is Bitcoin under a LOT of pressure to move higher right now That Blue line is a calculated Arc, that is, in fact, a part of a Fibonacci Spiral. As you can see, it has rejected EVERY Bitcoin ATH - Every one. And right now, PA is getting Squeezed by it and the line of long term support just below. We have till year end to break and hold above this Blue Arc. Here is a Zoomed version of the same chart. PA is currently Just above that Line,,but only just. It has been rejected a number of times since Q4 2024. We need to break above and hold. It is as simple as that, otherwise, PA will be dragged down. As you probably realise, This is the end of this Series of Bitcoin cycles. Once above the Spiral, we leave a series of patterns Bitcoin has been in since it was created in 2008 Exciting days ahead
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daily - Near by lines of support and possible targets Some short term Bearish and Bullish odeas. That red "line" near current PA is a 236 Fib circle and, as you will know if you been reading my posts, These Often provide Downside. As a result, I am looking to see a price near or slightly below 100K before a turn around. That would bring us to the 2.236 Fib Extension line. Should that fail, 96K is the next line that should hold The Daily MACD also supports a further drop MACD just turned Bearish above neutral line. It may find support on the Neutral line for a shorter term bounce. The RSI may support the idea of a push back We can see that the RSI has stopped dropping and so this may indicate a reversal is about to play out. We have to watch and wait. This time next week is the last day of September. The Month Candle needs to close GREEN to keep Bullish sentiment. It is currently Still Green. A Red Close and things would certainly appear to be a little more Bearish. October is a predominantly more Bullish month normaly. This next week should see a bounce if we are in a bullish run still. However, as mentioned above, there is still room on that green Candle for a Dip Lower. Or we may close Green, The Dip and then push higher. So many options.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daiy SMA UPDATEThis chart uses the SMA, Simple Moving Average Red = 50, Blue = 100, Green = 128, Yellow = 200 The weekend was calm and very low trading. PA is ranging along the 100 SMA and sitting, waiting. PA has the potential to move in either direction right now but the Bulls are certainly present, Keeping PA static. Daily MACD remains Bulish with room to move higher, Histogram is Green On the shorter term 4 hour, we can see how the 50 SMA is supporting PA while the 100 is currently the line to cross at 111582 PA has support below and is avobe the VRVP POC ( red dots ) Shorter term certainly appears more Bullish The 4 hour MACD also shows this The MACD came down and tested neutral line as support and the Histogram here is alo Green. But understand, this does NOT guarantee a rise further. The lines of Resistance abive are growing. Currently, beginning aroun 113K The Blue line on the Daily chart is the ultimate Goal to be crossed. This is a LONG Term line of resistance that has rejected EVERY ATH since 2011. It is the only line that has done this and what is important to know, this is a Calculated Arc, part of a Fibonaccj Spiral ( as explained in a previous post) This is the Bigger picture, PA from November 2009, the year after Bitcoin Was born As you can see, PA is being Sqqueezed and HAS to react before January 2026 or face stiff rejection below that Long Term line of support ( dashed line) What ever happens, this IS the beginning of a New Era, Cycle of Bitcoin. And this is why we need to pay so much attention to Bitcoin right now. We MUST rise above that blue Arc of resistance.... And Curently, we are HERE....shown in the chart below. This is a daily chart from November 2024 PA has been trying to get above this blue Arc since then. And we are right under it again now, Target price to get to and hold Above this Blue Arc is around 117K We may wait till the FED tells us its decision on interest rates this month.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal