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Bitcointechnicalanalysis

Bitcoin PA still in Range, bounced off the Low....STOP PANICING This Daily chart VERY clearly shows us all hw BTC PA once again bounced off a Long Term support line that has existed since the beginning of this cycle higher back in Jan 2023 On this chart we can see what happened last time.. Left circle. Is it Guaranteed ? NO but on the smaller time frames we can see how PA has also brpken pver that next line and is about to retest it as support. Along with this we can see the Daily MACD is turning bullish from the Low Overbought zone. So we have the ability for a sustained bounce but somethign that may make the bulls rest on a level og their choice is the FED meeting next week, 28, 29. On the 29th, we will hear about Rate decisions. It does need to be fully understood that Lower rates may not absolutely lead to massive gains. There are some very complicated issues with regard to Corporate Borrowing and the knock on effect could harm markets. Time will tell but one thing I am sure of is how Bitcoin , to me, does still remain bullish, holding support on Key eves
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Now on Last reserve of Support. it MUST bounce hereThe right cirxle is where i expected BTC PA to reach before it bounced, as it did on the left circle. But It Fell out of Range and has reached this line Early. the BIG question is now, Will it bounce ? And if it does, the previous line of support....wi that now be resistance ? It needs to & maintain any semblance of Bullishness....Or we will likely see 94K and truly Test the Bulls. I do have a BUY order down there. Why Not, I will be surprised if we get there but I relish the idea of buying there again The weekly RSI certainly shows the ability to rise as it drop lower The Daily RSI is also in a Good shape. So we can bounce from here but we have heavy resistance overhead now around 109K I mentioned this date range ( 12 - 15 Oct ) at the begining of th emonth...and it has played out but, now, we need that bounce higher and up and out of Range OR we could see a drop below and possible enter a mini Bear for the rest of the month. Maybe longer. As always, TIME WILL TELL>
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN now in Cycle ATH Zone but is BTC still in Cycles ?I first drew this chart back in 2024 and it is amaxing how things have played out, The Numbers in Grey boxes are the number of Days the 50 SMA ( red) has been above and below PA. The Blue, Below PA is the day count for PA Cycle High to cycle Low and Back to Cycle high. We have already past the "High Low" Day count for this cycle ATH and we are now on the Zone for the 50 SMA day count ATH. The peojected date for this ATH is 13 October. Note how Similar PA & 50 SMA is in the 2013 - 2017 Cycle. I was also running a PA Fractal chart showing similarities to PA and we can see how close it was until February this year For me, the reason we went "Flat" from February onwards is simly because of the Long Term resistance over head.... a line that has rejected EVERY Bitcoin ATH = this is all explained in previous posts. See the Blue Arc. It is that Blue Arc we need to Cross over. This Arc has kept PA Flat this cycle...... Looking at a Zoomed in Chart, we can see how that 50 SMA is a line of strong support. Should PA retreat, the 50 SMA is at around 103K at this time. The MACD is just under but in a zone where PA has retreated from This does NOT automatical Mean PA will Drop from here. Though on lower Time Frames, MACD is up High in Oversold. However, as the 4 hour shows us, It is already dropping from OverSold and yet PA has hit a high Divergence is in play One thing that dies hint at a pull back is the RSI being up in Oversold on a Daily chart But it should be understood, RSI Can range High or Low So, are we in Cycle Still ? If we are, we should expect a beginning of a BEAR market in the next few weeks. But we have not really seen the "Top" pattern and Profit taking yet..... Until that happens, I really am inclined to believe we have broken the cycle patterns.for a number of reasons. For instance, the MVRV Z Score This has not even past the levels seen in previous Runs BUT as a precaution, it is worth noting that Dash orange line, that starts where the Nov 2021 ATH Was. We have been rejected from that level already this run But we Still have room to get back up to that level at the mooment. The Main reason i feel things are different are that Blue Arc I mentioned earlier. We HAVE to break above that and remain there..... We are too close at this moment and a Bear market WILL take us back below that HUGE line of Very Very Strong resistance. The Daily chart below shows this We need one more push to take us Higher, to give us Room to remain above, even when Bitcoin Does correct . Note that 3 Fin extension on the last chart posted. We just got above the 6. We need to Rise far enough over that for it to act as support ewhn retested. 3, 6, 9 9 Fib extension at around 180K Just saying NEW CYCLES ARE BEGINNING
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
1
Why is Bitcoin under a LOT of pressure to move higher right now That Blue line is a calculated Arc, that is, in fact, a part of a Fibonacci Spiral. As you can see, it has rejected EVERY Bitcoin ATH - Every one. And right now, PA is getting Squeezed by it and the line of long term support just below. We have till year end to break and hold above this Blue Arc. Here is a Zoomed version of the same chart. PA is currently Just above that Line,,but only just. It has been rejected a number of times since Q4 2024. We need to break above and hold. It is as simple as that, otherwise, PA will be dragged down. As you probably realise, This is the end of this Series of Bitcoin cycles. Once above the Spiral, we leave a series of patterns Bitcoin has been in since it was created in 2008 Exciting days ahead
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daily - Near by lines of support and possible targets Some short term Bearish and Bullish odeas. That red "line" near current PA is a 236 Fib circle and, as you will know if you been reading my posts, These Often provide Downside. As a result, I am looking to see a price near or slightly below 100K before a turn around. That would bring us to the 2.236 Fib Extension line. Should that fail, 96K is the next line that should hold The Daily MACD also supports a further drop MACD just turned Bearish above neutral line. It may find support on the Neutral line for a shorter term bounce. The RSI may support the idea of a push back We can see that the RSI has stopped dropping and so this may indicate a reversal is about to play out. We have to watch and wait. This time next week is the last day of September. The Month Candle needs to close GREEN to keep Bullish sentiment. It is currently Still Green. A Red Close and things would certainly appear to be a little more Bearish. October is a predominantly more Bullish month normaly. This next week should see a bounce if we are in a bullish run still. However, as mentioned above, there is still room on that green Candle for a Dip Lower. Or we may close Green, The Dip and then push higher. So many options.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daiy SMA UPDATEThis chart uses the SMA, Simple Moving Average Red = 50, Blue = 100, Green = 128, Yellow = 200 The weekend was calm and very low trading. PA is ranging along the 100 SMA and sitting, waiting. PA has the potential to move in either direction right now but the Bulls are certainly present, Keeping PA static. Daily MACD remains Bulish with room to move higher, Histogram is Green On the shorter term 4 hour, we can see how the 50 SMA is supporting PA while the 100 is currently the line to cross at 111582 PA has support below and is avobe the VRVP POC ( red dots ) Shorter term certainly appears more Bullish The 4 hour MACD also shows this The MACD came down and tested neutral line as support and the Histogram here is alo Green. But understand, this does NOT guarantee a rise further. The lines of Resistance abive are growing. Currently, beginning aroun 113K The Blue line on the Daily chart is the ultimate Goal to be crossed. This is a LONG Term line of resistance that has rejected EVERY ATH since 2011. It is the only line that has done this and what is important to know, this is a Calculated Arc, part of a Fibonaccj Spiral ( as explained in a previous post) This is the Bigger picture, PA from November 2009, the year after Bitcoin Was born As you can see, PA is being Sqqueezed and HAS to react before January 2026 or face stiff rejection below that Long Term line of support ( dashed line) What ever happens, this IS the beginning of a New Era, Cycle of Bitcoin. And this is why we need to pay so much attention to Bitcoin right now. We MUST rise above that blue Arc of resistance.... And Curently, we are HERE....shown in the chart below. This is a daily chart from November 2024 PA has been trying to get above this blue Arc since then. And we are right under it again now, Target price to get to and hold Above this Blue Arc is around 117K We may wait till the FED tells us its decision on interest rates this month.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Quick Bitcoin Daily SMa update - PA getting rejected As you can se, PA is getting rejected off the 50 SMA ( red) If this rejection is confirmed, this could create a double Top and may push PA back down to create a Lower Low. Watch this closely, it could turn if the bulls step in. Just be Very cautious right now. oshorter term 4 hour MACD is showing us that MACD did cross above the signal line however, this could turn down quickly as it did over on the left of the chart Caution is advisable
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daily SMA UPDATE This daily chart uses the SMA, Simple Moving Average Red = 50, Blue = 100, Green = 128, Yellow = 200 Yesterday, PA broke through the descending line of resistance it had been under since 13 August. As yet, this does not mean PA will now rise, though on a daily chart, the MACD certainly has the room to move higher, as seen below However, given where we are in a traditionaly quiet month, I do still see PA sliding down this line in the bear future...testing it as support This maybe supported by the fact that the shorter term 4 Hour MACD has Crossed Neutral but the Hitogram is showing White bars and not Green. This shows a weakening and the MACD line moving closer to the red signal line. The Daily RSI is also turning over but remains above its MA for now So for now, we see PA has broken over the Daily 100 SMA and is testing as support. Above, we have the 50 at 113300 This could be the next line of resistance if PA rises now. Should PA turn down now, we have the 100 SMA at 110762. Below that , the 128 sits at 108194 To remain above that descending trend line, we need to Range in the area we currently are in and stay above that 100SMA at 110K for at least the next 24 hours If we look at the Bitcoin 4 hour chart, we see this maybe possible PA sits in a very tight range between the 50 and the 100 4 hour SMA and is currently sitting on the VRVP Point of control ( red dotted line ) This is all support but we have to wait and see if it remains so. There is Very little action trading right now...we just waiting.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daily on Lower Low Lower high again -till ? This chart uses the SMA. Red - 50, Blue - 100, Green - 128 and 200 - Yellow PA is absolutely in a descending channel with repeated Lower Low Lower high on a daily chart Today, we will see if we break that or not as PA reaches resistance on a Trend line. The 50 SMA is descending as potential resistance when the day comes were PA breaks out and reaches higher. This will happen as I do not believe we are entering a Deep Bear..This is a Local "Cool off" but we may hit a tough one at that 50 SMA at around 113K Till then, we are hitting the 100 as resistance and the 128 as support. This may break today as we hit that line of resistance with the 128 SMA not far below. The DAILY MACD offers some hope of strength as we see it bouncing off oversold We will have to watch today close to see where we go If we get rejected today, Next stop down could be the 200 SMA at around 103K low This line needs to hold to show use confidence in the Bulls. My line of concern will be reached if e go to 95K and fall through. This daily chart below shows a number of things to support what is written above. On this , we see the 2.618 Fib extension around the same area as the 200 day SMA @ 103900 usd The circle highlights a point where a 236 Fib circle crosses over a rising line of support. This is around 97K and just below this is another line of support around 95K People that follow me will know that I often highlight 236 Fib circles as lines of strong resistance and on this occasion, this maybe Exactly why we see PA dropping now. The intersection is near the end of September, a usually slow month that has a majority of RED Candle Closes on a month chart ( 9 red to 5 Green since 2013) I am not saying we will get to this level but the potential does exist while we remain in a down trend.... I would hope that PA bounces off the Fib extension on that 200 SMA if we get near that 104K line. On a longer term, we should take note of the WEEKLY MACD Should this continue down the line drawn, that takes us to Late October before a bounce ur a more sustained push higher. We should keep this in mind I welcome any comments ( Sensible ones..)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN has broken Free - The Next cycle type begins- WHY ? I have been talking about the Blue Arc of resistance for a while now. The ARC that has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin began its true rise in Value back in 2011. I am not going to get to technical right now as I have had only 1 coffee..lol.. Lets begin I have 3 charts with this Arc on , all slightly different so as to allow for small errors in plotting or calculation. ALL charts now show PA Above the Arc. Why is this so important ? As previously explained, that Blue Arc is a part of a Calculated Fibonacci Spiral. Calculated from Each ATH to the next and using the difference as a part of that calculation, I was able to pinpoint the centre of this Arc. And here is the Full picture. What I am finding a little interesting is how that centre is on MARCH 2020 - That Sudden and worrying COVID CRASH ! But that is a subject for another time. The Two important things to take of here is how PA began rising on this spiral as soon as PA entered it ( Left ) and unless we broke out of it now, PA would have been dragged back down by December. The time spent inside this spiral are the cumulative years of Bitcoin. It is also very interesting how the 3 "Cycles " we have had in this channel. have ended perfectly at that intersection of the Blue Arc and the underlying line of support, that PA has not dropped below since we entered the channel back in 2012 To me, that is more than just a coincidence. And if we look at a smaller time frame, we can see that PA has broken over this Arc, with strength. The Daily chart above does show us that we do still have challenges ahead. For instance, there is that line of local resistance just above, that could , under the right circumstances, push PA back down with vengeance should the Bears take over. But I do not think that will happen yet but it would be nice if we could climb over that and use it as support. We have done on 2 previous occasions this cycle but each time, we got pushed back under. 3rd time lucky ? The 4 hour chart gives hope. Here we can see how that Blue Arc was used as support but once it failed, the Bulls were Quick to get back over. To me, this shows us that the Bulls have every intention of keeping Bitcoin High and above that Blue Arc. But the longer we wait to get over that local line of resistance above, and use as support, the further away it Gets. Currently, the Target to get over that lline is around 140K Near Term projections of PA, in a bullish run, are around 160K -> 180K This would give PA that underlying line of support. So, we wait to see how this plays out but THE MOST IMPORTANT THING ? We Must remain above that line, the Blue Arc....that currently sits around 115 -118K The Next Few weeks are VITAL and I remind you..August has nearly twice as many RED monthly closes as Green..Unless it is in a Bull run....;-) The Daily RSI has room to move still but is High The Weekly RSI is Similar in hieght, with room to move. So, We could be in a good position to start that New Cycle type, out of the Spiral that Created Bitcoin as we now know it. The 4 year Flow could change as mass adoption takes pace and People simply do not Buy / Sell as we used to do. But it is impossible to really know whats coming. We can only watch and learn. We may well end up having the 4 year cycles again. After all, that gave us superb profit making opportunities. Or will Bitcoin become the Store of Value, the Digital Gold ? Time will tell. Have a good week and stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Bitcoin daily showing short term rejection Long Term Gains The descending diagonal "line" is another of those 618 Fib circles. You can see very clearly on this chart what happened the last 2 occasions PA hit one of these. I have little reason to expect things to be any different this time. As a result, we could revisit 107K HOWEVER, we do have the 50 day SMA just below, around 112K, and this could act as support in which case, we will continue to rise through the Fib circle. To some extents, this idea is supported by the daily MACD Currently bouncing off Neutral and with plenty of room to move higher. The 4 hour is also rising Bullish But the Daily RSI is showing possibilities for Both RSI has risen above its average ( yellow line), having been rejected by it repeatably recently.....We need to watch this also to see if it finds support or not. So we have an open Chance of Bullish or Bearish this weekend and my opinion heads towards the short term Bearish till PA hits lower trend line, due to this Fib circle.. I remain Extremely Bullish longer term Have a great weekend Lets see
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin: Support at $112K Holds Key to Bullish ContinuationFenzoFx—Bitcoin is bullish, trading above $112,000.0 after forming a new all-time high at $123,231.0. The current dip may offer a strong reentry if $112,000.0 holds as support, aligning with a bullish fair value gap. Price remains above the ascending trendline, reinforcing the bullish outlook. If momentum continues and BTC breaks past $123,231.0, the next target could be $130,000.0. A fall below the trendline would invalidate the bullish setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FenzoFxBroker
Something for the weekend? Bitcoin Daily-last for 2 weeks PA has finally risen above that Fib circle ( falling diagonal arc) that has rejected us since Early June. PA is currently retesting this as support now and we will hopefully manage to remain above. Should this fail, we have the lower trendline of the newly formed rising channel to use as support. Should that fail, we have the 236 Fib circle (Red) and the next rising support line around 102k, depending on sharp the drop is. If we find support where we are now, we have a good run back to the current ATH line ( Blue Dash line) The real test is that 236 Fib circle that is dropping form around 114K 99% of the Time, a 236 Fib circle is resistance and if it rejects PA, the Current ATH line is very close below. This will either create a bounce or a sharp drop. If we get stuck between the 2, we have that APEX around 25 July..PA always reacts BEFORE the Apex And I am back on the 19th Jully, just in time I hope ;-) So, The MACD is currently above neutral on the Daily (Below) The weekly is much the same but on the 4 hour, we are currently dropping towards Neutral and Tomorrow ( sunday) will tell us if it bounces or not. We are early in July, As mentioned in the monthly report I posted earlier this week, we could see a larger Green candle by month end, though is is not a promise obviously. But the MACD could support this idea We just have to wait and, for me, that is what we will do until around Q4 We could still see smaller gains over the summer period but the Bigger moves are in Q4 That is what I am waiting for....and yet, at the same time, I am ready if it comes earlier stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Close colour and patterns since 2011 At the beginning of June , I wrote this ""On only 2 occasions have we had a GREEN JAN, RED FEB, RED MARCH, GREEN APRIL And Both of them were on the way to ATH. (Boxes ) On both those occasions we also had a GREEN MAY, though the gains were minimal and one was followed by a Green June and the other by a Red June." We just got the GREEN June and so this draws my eye to the sequence on the left, ( arrow ) If we are to follow this, then July should be a larger Green (Arrow) - BULLISH In-fact, in both the sequences we have been following ( boxes), July was GREEN- BULLISH And using just the month candle colours, we have a higher chance of another Green candle, with July having had 9 Green to 4 Red previously. - BULLISH However Of the previous 8 Green June Closes , only 3 went to a Green July - BEARISH And I have to say, on NONE of the previous Green Junes were we so close to the current ATH. July 2021 being the closest with a price at 41K, around 18K below the current ATH at the time. We are currently only around 200 usd below Current ATH This adds enormous resistance to the ability to rise I wanted a RED June because I felt it was more sustainable and would lead to a cycle ATH at the end of the year. As can be seen in the middle Box If we look back toward the 2012 Box on the left, we may now get a Hot July / August , September and then a Cool off for October, November & December. But something tells me this will not happen. The Candles for our current cycle in April, May and June are diminishing in size, the opposite of 2012 But they are similar to the 2020 box, except for the red June close. This could lead to the desired "Cooling" in August & September and a new lift off in autumn. And if you look at the chart Candle Colour Count, , August and September are usually RED by some majority This also gives us the Bigger Green July candle that the "Odds" point towards. So, as ever, we have to wait and see how this plays out. Odds in favour of a Green July using previous cycle Data PA position just below current ATH could lead to a slightly Bearish out look in the short term. And if you are hoping to see ALTS Rally, PLEASE keep your eye on the BTC.D chart This also points to wards BTC ATH in Q4 this year And then, we have the BIG question.......Will we ever see a Classix Bear again ? With so many Holding Bitcoin LongTerm.....How would a Bear market arrive ? BUY BITCOIN HOLD BITCOIN But, as ever, we just have to wait and see,
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Daily in a large pennant with apex end of July Bitcoin is once again getting rejected off the Fib circle just above. This is also just under a 618 Fib extension and so a combined rejection zone. Beneath this, we have support on that Bold dashed line. This is a Local line of supprt but has strength. And so, we find outselves in apennant again and that apex is around 22 July. PA tracts before the apex. As will be explained in the monthly chart I iwll post later, this all points towards a Calm July, possibly RED month. PA does however, have the ability and strength to push higher if the Bulls decide to make a move. The MACD The Daily MACD is just above Neutral and has enough room to move. So, if we drop, support is arouns 103K If we loose that then 100K and then we land on that red 236 Fib circle that will offer a sliding line of support. But I do not think we will get there just yet Enjoy
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Closed week RED and opens Green but is back in channel As the title says, BTC PA has fallen back in channel that offers a potential low in the High 80K should confidence fail. PA also lost support on the Local 2.618 Fib extension. This is a shame and poses potential problems reclaiming that. I will say, that I do not consider this a long term Bearish beginning but it could certainly add to the "Calm" Summer I have talked about. I say "Calm", that does depend on the world not entering a level of Madness. The Zoomed chart below shows more detail Here we can see clearly how PA got rejected off that upper trend line, fell through the 2.618 and is currently being rejected by it. The potential for a further drop does exist and if we repeat the "Pattern" we have since the beginning of 2024, of bounce off Lower trend line, get rejected from Upper zone, re test lower as support and bounce again, we can expect to revisit 89K This idea is supported from this LINEAR Daily chart The dashed Trend line that is arrowed has origin in Sep 2024 and was also used again in April 2025. That intersection the arrow points to is the intersection with the current supporting Fib circle at around 88500 USD None of this is certain but these levels exist as support. PA also has the ability to move higher The Weekly MACD below shows us how MACD is turning down towards its signal line ( red) We did this before in Jan 2024 ( Arrow) and The MACD bounced. We talked about this possibility a few weeks ago But on a Daily MACD, things do look a little different. The FEB 2024 looked like this, Bullish, rising and above Neutral Currently, the Daily MACD looks like this We just fell below Neutral and the Signal line just hit it We may seea bounce but we need to have the idea that this may continue to drop a little further. But the White bar on the Histogram shows us some recovery is currently in progress We will have to watch the rest of this month closely. This time next week is last day of month. I have mentioned a number of times that a small RED Month candle would be potentialy good. We are currently Only just GREEN, so a further Drop in price is actually almost expected this week. Interesting days ahead
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal