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Bounce

BTC – Bounce Off Daily Support, Eyes on Supply!Bitcoin has bounced from the daily support area (the broad green zone around $110K–$112K), reclaiming the intraday breakdown zone near $114K and turning it into support on lower timeframes. As long as price holds above $112K–$113K, the short-term bias remains constructive and I am looking for continuation toward $118K, followed by the $121K–$122K supply zone highlighted on the chart. The bulls will remain in control as long as the $107,500 mark holds as support. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage risk. All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
Two-phase FOMC reaction on EURUSD explained: Where next?EURUSD experienced a classic "dovish-then-hawkish" whipsaw following the Fed's 25bp cut. The Initial dovish reaction saw the fibre surge above 1.19 to multi-year highs as the dot plot showed 50bp additional cuts vs expected 25bp in 2025. However, Powell's hawkish presser reversed gains within the hour, describing the cut as "risk management" rather than an aggressive easing cycle start. EURSD is finding support at 1.1778 (previous high), with the price having taken out the 100% Fibonacci extension from August lows. Critical support sits at 1.1740, with a break below invalidating the bullish bias. Bullish Scenario Targets : 1.1830, 1.1866 (critical level), then 1.2000-1.2032 Triggers : Hold above 1.1778, break above 1.1866 Rationale : ECB-Fed divergence theme intact with ECB holding, while Fed cuts Bearish Scenario (Potential Dead Cat Bounce) Targets : 1.1750, 1.1730 Entry : Short at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (~1.1832) Stop : Above 1.1878 R:R Ratio : 3.38 Where next? ECB pause vs Fed easing supports underlying bullish EUR/USD theme despite near-term volatility. But the next FOMC meetings are more critical as Powell emphasised a "meeting-by-meeting" approach. Current pullback is likely a retracement before a potential continuation higher, but watch for rejection at the weekly trendline resistance shy of 1.20. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
I hate to say it, but BTC is done - !Cycle ended!I've plotted the time in which each bull cycle takes to complete. Each run is getting shorter, not longer.. So looking at the previous run, we can see that we saw an expanded ABC to correct - one more little peak at at ATNH but then down into the inevitable correction. I think exactly the same thing is playing out here. We've seen so much brevado, but almost no new liquidity - there may well be a rate cut or two coming in September but I feel it's already priced in. When Powell inferred there would be cuts a few weeks ago, the market jumped but then dumped. Buy the rumour, sell the news. So - I'm out, cashed in my chips. Off to buy a new car.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptechcapital
MEGAPHONE ALERT! BTC 1H Outlook🧩 Megaphone Formation (Broadening Wedge) Volatility expanding inside a widening range Price now testing the Fib cluster (0.66–0.618) between 105,568–105,987 RSI at 66.3, nearing overbought — pressure is building Volume surging above 20-period MA → breakout imminent 🎯 Key Confluences: Upper Bollinger Band: 105,950 Mid BB (Basis): 105,110 Lower BB: 104,342 55 SMA: 104,500 SL Zone (Invalidation): Above 106,500 (upper wick resistance) 🔻 Bearish Breakdown Scenario: Loss of 105,100 and breakdown from lower wedge line RSI drops < 45 + volume spike → hedge confirmation Targets: 104,000 → 102,500 🔺 Bullish Breakout Scenario: Close above 106,000–106,500 with volume Targets: 107,800 → 108,900 Manage with trailing stops — things will be quick! ⚠️ Summary: Megaphone = Volatility Bomb Stay nimble. If BTC fails at this Fib zone, the breakdown will be fast and decisive. If it breaks out, bulls might squeeze higher but need volume to sustain it.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by BitcoinMillio18
2
DEAD CAT BOUNCE? | BTC/USDT Daily + 4H Breakdown📉 Daily Chart – Rejection from Mid-BB & Fib Cluster BTC bounced into the 0.618–0.66 retracement zone (105,495–106,443) Price failed to close above the mid-Bollinger Band (106,443) Volume declining on the bounce → lack of buying conviction RSI barely holding above 50 (52.05) → weak momentum Price is now rejecting from the underside of broken support → classic S/R flip Possible Dead Cat Bounce forming below structure 🕵️‍♂️ 4H Chart – Short Hedge Retest Opportunity Breakdown confirmed below 104,472 HL RSI still below 45 on the 4H → bearish momentum intact Retest of breakdown zone with weak volume Price capped by mid-BB + 55 SMA (105,400–106,000 region) Structure confirms a potential LPSY (Last Point of Supply) in Wyckoff markdown 🎯 Trade Plan (RTP-Compliant Short Hedge) Entry: ~104,800 (confirmed breakdown zone) SL: Just above 106,443 (Fib + BB basis + 55 SMA) TP1: 103,300 (Lower BB) TP2: 101,500 (Lower channel bound) TP3: Trailing 1.0% below 101,400 ⚠️ Summary BTC's bounce lacks volume, RSI strength, and structural reclaim. Unless bulls close above 106,443 with force, this setup favors a continuation lower.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by BitcoinMillio18
EURNZD Analysis: Bounce & BreakoutHello traders! EURNZD is in a 1h range and is offering two trading scenarios. The first scenario suggests the pair may react bearishly from the resistance zone, setting up a bounce opportunity that could drive price lower toward the 1.90000 area. The second scenario anticipates a breakout above the resistance zone, followed by a retest, which could present a strong opportunity for continuation toward the 1.92000 area. Discretionary Trading: Where Experience Becomes the Edge Discretionary trading is all about making decisions based on what you see, what you feel, and what you've learned through experience. Unlike systematic strategies that rely on fixed rules or algorithms, discretionary traders use their judgment to read the market in real time. It's a skill that can't be rushed, because it's built on screen time, pattern recognition, and the ability to stay calm under pressure. There's no shortcut here. You need to see enough market conditions, wins, and losses to build that intuition—the kind that tells you when to pull the trigger or sit on your hands. Charts might look the same, but context changes everything, and that's something only experience can teach you. At the end of the day, discretionary trading is an art, refined over time, sharpened through mistakes, and driven by instinct. It's not for everyone, but for those who've put in the work, it can be a powerful way to trade.
Short
by davidavasalcai
12
Are you shorting the bounce or waiting for confirmation?Japan’s Q1 GDP came in worse than expected: -0.2% QoQ (-0.7% annualized). Weak consumption, soft exports, and a fading external boost despite a weak yen isn't a great combo for Asia’s largest export economy. The Nikkei 225 reacted immediately, and the H4 chart is starting to reflect deeper structural pressure. 🔍 Technical Outlook: - Price reversed from the high of 38,745. - Price is testing the 50 SMA and could enter the Ichimoku cloud. - The cloud is signalling a twist, which could be a sign of momentum fading and the trend weakening or reversing. 📊 Projection: If the price closes below the 50 SMA and breaks through the cloud, further downside could be expected, with the target levels at - 36,800 (last consolidation zone), and - 35,570 (38.2% fibonacci retracement level and 200 SMA). Alternatively, if the bulls defend the cloud, we could see the price climb to the resistance level of 40,500 This is a classic macro meets technicals moment. A weak data print is lining up against the possibility of a technical rollover.
SPREADEX:NIKKEIShort
by JinDao_Tai
EURGBP Analysis: Two Daily POIsHello traders! EURGBP is offering two trading scenarios on the daily timeframe. The first scenario suggests the pair may react bullishly from the next zone, setting up a bounce opportunity that could drive price higher toward the 0.84400 area. The second scenario anticipates a bounce toward the 0.83800 area, where a mean reversion setup may come into play (if buyers step in and price action confirms bullish intent near that support). Discretionary Trading: Where Experience Becomes the Edge Discretionary trading is all about making decisions based on what you see, what you feel, and what you've learned through experience. Unlike systematic strategies that rely on fixed rules or algorithms, discretionary traders use their judgment to read the market in real time. It's a skill that can't be rushed, because it's built on screen time, pattern recognition, and the ability to stay calm under pressure. There's no shortcut here. You need to see enough market conditions, wins, and losses to build that intuition—the kind that tells you when to pull the trigger or sit on your hands. Charts might look the same, but context changes everything, and that's something only experience can teach you. At the end of the day, discretionary trading is an art, refined over time, sharpened through mistakes, and driven by instinct. It's not for everyone, but for those who've put in the work, it can be a powerful way to trade.
Long
by davidavasalcai
54
USDCAD Analysis: Three Bounce ScenariosHello traders! USDCAD is offering three trading scenarios on the daily timeframe. The first scenario suggests the pair may react bullishly from the currently approached zone, setting up a bounce opportunity that could drive price higher toward the 1.41600 area. The second scenario anticipates a bounce toward the 1.37586 region, where a mean reversion setup may come into play (if buyers step in and price action confirms bullish intent near that support). The third scenario anticipates a bounce toward the 1.34150 region, where a mean reversion setup may come into play (if buyers step in and price action confirms bullish intent near that support). Discretionary Trading: Where Experience Becomes the Edge Discretionary trading is all about making decisions based on what you see, what you feel, and what you've learned through experience. Unlike systematic strategies that rely on fixed rules or algorithms, discretionary traders use their judgment to read the market in real time. It's a skill that can't be rushed, because it's built on screen time, pattern recognition, and the ability to stay calm under pressure. There's no shortcut here. You need to see enough market conditions, wins, and losses to build that intuition—the kind that tells you when to pull the trigger or sit on your hands. Charts might look the same, but context changes everything, and that's something only experience can teach you. At the end of the day, discretionary trading is an art, refined over time, sharpened through mistakes, and driven by instinct. It's not for everyone, but for those who've put in the work, it can be a powerful way to trade.
Long
by davidavasalcai
37
NZDCAD Discretionary Analysis: Bounce at 0.83Hello traders and happy Easter Monday! I'm expecting a bounce on NZDCAD. I'm interested in this 0.83 zone. It might turn into a strong bounce point. If the signs are there, I'm jumping in with a short. Discretionary Trading: Where Experience Becomes the Edge Discretionary trading is all about making decisions based on what you see, what you feel, and what you've learned through experience. Unlike systematic strategies that rely on fixed rules or algorithms, discretionary traders use their judgment to read the market in real time. It's a skill that can't be rushed, because it's built on screen time, pattern recognition, and the ability to stay calm under pressure. There's no shortcut here. You need to see enough market conditions, wins, and losses to build that intuition—the kind that tells you when to pull the trigger or sit on your hands. Charts might look the same, but context changes everything, and that's something only experience can teach you. At the end of the day, discretionary trading is an art, refined over time, sharpened through mistakes, and driven by instinct. It's not for everyone, but for those who've put in the work, it can be a powerful way to trade.
Short
by davidavasalcai
47
GBPNZD Discretionary Analysis: Bounce at 2.18Hello traders. I'm like what I see on GBPNZD. I'm expecting the momentum to continue. I'm watching that 2.18 zone closely. It's where I'll be looking for a reaction. Could be a solid bounce spot, and if it shows signs, I'm stepping in. Discretionary Trading: Where Experience Becomes the Edge Discretionary trading is all about making decisions based on what you see, what you feel, and what you've learned through experience. Unlike systematic strategies that rely on fixed rules or algorithms, discretionary traders use their judgment to read the market in real time. It's a skill that can't be rushed, because it's built on screen time, pattern recognition, and the ability to stay calm under pressure. There's no shortcut here. You need to see enough market conditions, wins, and losses to build that intuition—the kind that tells you when to pull the trigger or sit on your hands. Charts might look the same, but context changes everything, and that's something only experience can teach you. At the end of the day, discretionary trading is an art, refined over time, sharpened through mistakes, and driven by instinct. It's not for everyone, but for those who've put in the work, it can be a powerful way to trade.
Short
by davidavasalcai
37
NZDUSD Discretionary Analysis: Bounce at 0.59Hello traders. NZDUSD has potential for me. I'm expecting the momentum to continue, and I've got my eye on that 0.59 level to get involved. That's where I'll be looking for a setup. Discretionary Trading: Where Experience Becomes the Edge Discretionary trading is all about making decisions based on what you see, what you feel, and what you've learned through experience. Unlike systematic strategies that rely on fixed rules or algorithms, discretionary traders use their judgment to read the market in real time. It's a skill that can't be rushed, because it's built on screen time, pattern recognition, and the ability to stay calm under pressure. There's no shortcut here. You need to see enough market conditions, wins, and losses to build that intuition—the kind that tells you when to pull the trigger or sit on your hands. Charts might look the same, but context changes everything, and that's something only experience can teach you. At the end of the day, discretionary trading is an art, refined over time, sharpened through mistakes, and driven by instinct. It's not for everyone, but for those who've put in the work, it can be a powerful way to trade.
Long
by davidavasalcai
15
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 3, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 President Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Implemented: On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs, aiming to address trade imbalances. These include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries: 34% on Chinese goods, 20% on European Union products, and 25% on all foreign-made automobiles. The administration asserts these measures will revitalize domestic industries, though critics warn of potential price increases for consumers and possible retaliatory actions from affected nations. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 3: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 225,000​ Previous: 224,000​ Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, providing insight into the labor market's health.​ 📈 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -$76.0 billion​ Previous: -$131.4 billion​ Indicates the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​ 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0​ Previous: 53.5​ Assesses the performance of the services sector; a reading above 50 suggests expansion.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Bitcoin - EMA Support Holding Strong!#BTC/USD #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- BTC/USD – Weekly Chart Analysis 📉 Current Price: $82,239 (-4.47%) 📈 Key Moving Averages: 🔹 EMA 20: 88,143 🔹 EMA 40: 81,116 🔹 SMA 50: 76,230 EMA Support Holds Strong – The chart highlights multiple historical instances where BTC found support at the 20-40 EMA zone (orange circles). This pattern has played out consistently in past market cycles. - Bullish Trend Continuation – Each time BTC has tested this EMA region on a pullback, it has led to strong recoveries and further bullish momentum. - Current Market Structure – BTC is once again testing this key EMA support zone. A bounce from here could signal a continuation of the uptrend. - Historical Patterns Repeat – The blue shaded region and Vector Algo's AI-optimized signals indicate that similar setups have resulted in upward moves. ✅ Bullish Scenario: If BTC holds above the EMA 40 ($81,000) and forms bullish confirmation candles, we could see a move toward previous highs ($96,000) and possibly $100,000+. ❌ Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below $81,000 could lead to further downside towards the 50 SMA ($76,000) and lower demand zones. Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend, and the current EMA support test is crucial for trend continuation. Keeping an eye on price action around this zone is key for potential long opportunities! --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by VectorAlgo
ETH at a Make-or-Break Level – What’s Next?🚀 Hey Traders! If you're getting value from this analysis, smash that 👍 & hit Follow for high-accuracy trade setups that actually deliver! 💹🔥 🚨 ETH Update – Critical Level Ahead! ETH is currently forming a symmetrical triangle on the 2-week timeframe and is now testing the lower trendline. With 4 days left before the candle closes, this level is crucial! 🔥 📌 What’s next? ✅ If ETH bounces from here, we could see a strong bullish move in the coming days. ❌ Invalidation: A close below $1850 could trigger further downside. 📉 Breakdown or Bounce? What’s your take? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇💬 🔔 Follow us for real-time updates and winning trade setups! 🚀
Long
by CoreCrypto1
2
ADBE to $465 - Chance for a BounceNASDAQ:ADBE ADBE, as well as other tech stocks, was beaten hard over the last couple of months. The earnings recently did not provide any relief for the chart either, although the figures were not particularly bad. In particular, the possible prospect of finally being able to expand and monetize Adobe's own AI “Firefly” continues to offer good opportunities. With a PE of now under 20, Adobe has become quite favorable as a company that continues to grow well in the SaaS sector. It has also reached several technical support zones. We are at the lower edge of a very large bull flag that has been in place since the beginning of 2024. Horizontal support at $385 is also supportive. We have 3 large daily gaps in the chart above us and a bullish wedge within the flag. This is a good place to start buying for a possible bounce towards $465. However, one must bear in mind that the overall market remains bearish. Purchases should therefore be closely hedged and not be too large. However, it would be wrong not to use this opportunity to enter the market. Target Zones $465.00 Support Zones $385.00 $360.00
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by LGNDRY-Capital
1
Potential Path of the Altcoin Market?Trading Family, To say that our altcoin market has been disappointing would be the understatement of the year. While there definitely have been some winners (I have held Solana through the $8 low), the majority have been a large disappointment. In fact, the last I read, only 42 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin since the bear market bottom was put in. This is an incredible stat to think about and very telling. Altcoin traders have a difficult task in beating the BTC hodl'ers for sure. However, recently there have been some hidden indications that our altcoin market will soon increase our odds of success. First of all, Bitcoin's low fees. Low fees on the Bitcoin blockchain is often a hidden health indicator for the coin signaling weak demand. People often see low fees as a positive thing. But what's actually happening here is that there is low demand for transacting on the chain, therefore, in order to increase the demand, transaction fees are forced down. Weaker demand does seem to correlate with what the BTC dominance chart is showing us. You can see from the chart that we have a large sell side liquidity block that has formed, indicating large sell side volume in dominance. Additionally, my indicator has flashed a red dot, signaling that it is time for dominance to drop. We also have our RSI and Macd, crossing down. And if we break from that channel, dominance drop momentum should accelerate. This brings me to our TOTAL3 chart which is all altcoins excluding Ethereum. The chart is showing us that we have reached an extremely critical support trendline. Price is currently bouncing from it. Additionally, there are large volumes of buyers at this point. You can observe this by the VRVP candles and the liquidity blocks indicator. But contrary to BTC.D in which the RSI and Macd were crossing down, TOTAL3 shows our RSI and Macd crossing up! This is bullish for alts. Finally, it is a great sign to see that our "M" pattern has looked to have completed right at our point of support. I have drawn a projected pathway from here. In the first part of our next week, we may see a bit more pump. News of the passing continuing resolution here in the U.S. is still trickling out. Monday, as stock traders jump back in, I would imagine we see more pump as traders feel good about the averted gov't shutdown. This may trickle into Tuesday. But then Wed. is the Fed's day. We are expecting further pause to interest rate. Everyone will be listening to the Fed speak and parsing every syllable that is uttered from J. Pow's tongue. What is says and the bias that is interpreted will be key. I am expecting mostly a non-event here. Which means that bullish bias may wane once again. Crypto, mostly altcoins, really only pump on good news. But negative and even neutral news is a sell to sideways event. Thus, I expect we may hit another local top around Wed. afternoon at which point the altcoin market starts to sell a bit again OR it simply continues sideways again for a few more weeks. Sooner or later though, I believe we are headed towards that 1.3 trillion resistance. It is worthwhile considering to stay in a holding pattern unless we drop below our all-important support. Watch this line closely and draw it on your charts. It will be key! ✌️Stew
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by stewdamus