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Btccyclebottom

Bitcoin Long-Term Cyclical Structure + Cup Formation ProjectionIf you look at Bitcoin from the very first cycles - you will see that the behavior is surprisingly consistent Every time price reaches the area between the red and purple arcs - it has historically marked a cycle top. After that we always saw a brutal correction — roughly 80% drawdown. No exceptions so far Another interesting detail: the time from one ATH to the next ATH has been very similar each cycle, around 1,491 days. After each major bottom price didn’t just bounce — it built a cup-shaped structure, slowly accumulating before the next expansion At the same time every cycle produced higher lows almost like steps going up (levels 1–5) So! If we get a deep correction - the next major bottom could land around $29k–$39k If the correction is less severe - support shifts higher to $39k–$51k Additionally, price may first return to the previous ATH - similar to what was in 2021, potentially pushing slightly above it. This would be consistent with historical behavior, where prior ATH are often reclaimed or marginally exceeded before a larger macro pullback unfolds. If the current cup plays out the same way it did in previous cycles, the measured move points to a potential Bitcoin price around $361k at the next ATH No indicators, no hype — just repeating structure, time symmetry and proportional moves that Bitcoin has respected for years
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by OpenYourMind1318
1
BTC reality check! Flat wave C & Oct 26 bottomWe’re back on BTC to drill into my alternate Elliott Wave count and the cyclical roadmap. Cycle work pointed to an October top, which we’ve seen. I remain long-term bullish, but near term I still see a flat correction in play, with wave C unfolding. Drivers Elliott Wave structure The larger uptrend remains intact, but the current phase looks corrective as a flat: wave A as a flat, wave B irregular, and wave C unfolding in five subwaves. Near term, price action looks like we’re in or finishing wave 4 of C. By alternation, with wave 2 having been deep (around the 61.8% area), wave 4 often resolves shallower (around the 38.2% area). If it stretches closer to 50% and compresses, a triangle into a final wave 5 is plausible before completion of C. If C remains overlapping and wedge-like, an ending diagonal scenario keeps downside limited. If instead the decline is impulsive, this drop could be only wave 1 of a larger 5-wave move lower. Momentum-wise, higher-timeframe RSI shows divergence, consistent with a late-stage correction. Cyclical framework Bitcoin’s recurring rhythm has often mirrored halving cycles: a bear phase roughly around a year, followed by multi-year bull advances. Symmetry between bottom→halving and halving→top continues to be informative. With the next halving due in 2028, the cycle window I’m monitoring points to a potential bottom window around Q4 2026 (often cited around October). This video focuses less on a single trade and more on the timing roadmap: when the corrective structure might complete and when to consider re-engaging for the longer term. Key zones to watch If an ending diagonal plays out, a termination near the high-60Ks (around 69k area) would be consistent with “limited downside.” A more dramatic impulse path could open a wider “magnetic zone” of support roughly spanning the low-70Ks down toward the 50Ks, with deeper stretch risks if the impulse extends. Confirmation will depend on how wave 4 resolves and whether the next leg proves corrective (ED) or impulsive. Trade idea My base lens is structure-first, timing-second. If wave C finishes as an ending diagonal, downside should be limited in the high-60Ks and setting up a bullish continuation in 2026. If instead the drop proves impulsive (5 down), treat bounces (0.5–0.618 retraces) as opportunities to reassess shorts, with a support “magnet” spanning roughly low-70Ks to low-50Ks, and deeper risk if momentum accelerates. Validation hinges on how wave 4 resolves and whether the final leg is overlapping (ED) or cleanly impulsive. If you want my annotated charts and live invalidation levels, drop a comment. Like and subscribe to catch the mid‑week follow‑up when wave 4/5 signals firm up. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
3
Bitcoin Cycles: A Bullish Prelude? 📊🐂Echoes of the Past: Cycles Revisited The Bitcoin market, much like nature, operates in cycles. The most exciting part? These cycles bear a striking resemblance when examined across different timeframes. The Telltale Signs: An Identical Bottoming Pattern What's been consistent in these cycles is the pattern of the market bottoming out. It's like a signature move—Bitcoin experiences a substantial dip, testing the nerves of investors, before staging a remarkable recovery. The Imminent Question: Is a Bullish Turnaround Ahead? If history is any indication, the patterns observed in the past have often heralded a change in market sentiment. When the market tests its lows and rebounds vigorously, it frequently signifies the start of a new bullish cycle. Trading Insight: Learning from the Past Understanding Bitcoin's historical patterns is invaluable for traders. It encourages a balanced approach during market downturns, enabling them to stay resilient while poised for potential upward momentum. Conclusion: A Familiar Tune The Bitcoin market's cycles echo throughout history, offering a glimpse into the future. By recognizing these patterns and their significance, traders can harness the insights they provide, navigating the volatile cryptocurrency landscape. 📈 Market Cycles | 🔄 Historical Parallels | 🌐 Cryptocurrency Trends | 📉 Risk Management ❗See related ideas below❗ Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!! 💚📊💚
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
Bitcoin Halving Cycles | Cycle Bottom to Previous ATHWe're going to take a look at the previous cycle bottoms to previous all-time highs and the time it took from those two points. Our current cycle bottom was FTX collapsing in November, with them creating the cycle top back in 2021 for the notorious double top. The only other scenario in history where we've retested the cycle bottom levels was in the 2015 bear market, however, that came relatively quickly and we reversed quite strongly after that. No cycle is exactly alike, as that would be too easy, however, we can get a grip on the general timelines / where we are in the current cycle. This cycle is a little bit different in the sense that in the past 3 cycles, we've had a 2-year bear market starting in the odd years, however, this time, we truly bottomed in November '22 across the board. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. 2012 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 392 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. 2015 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 658 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. 2019 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 644 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. Where do we stand today? Basing this idea completely on historical trends / 4-year cycles, we can conclude that the three cycles took 392, 658, and 644 days, respectively. Also something to note, volume has been decreasing on Bitcoin since the first cycle in terms of Bitcoin traded. This could easily be marked off as increase in price = less whole coins moving around. Anyways, let's take the mean of these three numbers and apply it to our current cycle bottom found on August 1st of 2022. 392 + 658 + 644 = 1701 / 3 = 564.67 days on average from cycle bottom to previous ATH. That would mark us off at February 19th, 2024 reaching the previous ATH: Let's say we want to take out the first cycle as an outlier, as 658 and 644 are fairly close to each other. Add those two up and we get 1,302. Divide that by 2 and we get 651. We'd get a date around May 13th, 2024 which would be about a month after the halving. The halving is right around the corner and the only question is if we're going to see a buy the hype leading up to it and a sell the news, or a buy-train after the halving without a pump fake. We've already seen the Litecoin halving on August 2nd, 2023 (earlier this month), and the next Bitcoin Halving is coming up in April of next year. As always, please do your own research, this chart is intended for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. 🚀
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by kyer
34
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart & Historic Bottom AnalyThis post looks at the following items to assess BTC possible upcoming cycle accumulation ranges, next cycle bottom and historic lowest price possible: * Cycle Bottom Indicator & CBI Extensions * Log Chart key support and resistance levels * 200W SMA (Simple Moving Average) Historic Cycle Bottom Support * Historic Cycle Accumulation Zone * 300W SMA Historic BLACK SWAN event under evaluation support The premise considered in this post is BTC is currently in the Bear Market phase of a new cycle and is approaching a new cycle bottom and accumulation range. CYCLE BOTTOM INDICATOR As per prior posts. The extension dashed lines extrapolated out in this chart at this point of time estimate a cycle bottom may be put in around August 2022 (based on current moving average inputs). GOLDEN BOX As per discussions regarding the 150W and 200W SMA, the potential upcoming golden box represents the price and time we might spend in a cycle accumulation range (based on prior historic price behavior). Historically the 200W SMA has resembled a key line of defense for the bulls where buyers has stepped in during the darkest days in Crypto to defend price. The bouncing nature of price between the 150W and 200W SMA suggests this in the past this is a range 'Smart Money' has targeted for cycle accumulation when believed BTC has been sufficiently oversold and is undervalued. Prior Cycle Golden Box has been drawn for comparison reference. GREEN BOX The 300W SMA resembles the worst case under evaluation support SMA reached during an extreme 'Black Swan' event (unexpected event which causes wide spread panic selling in the market). The as drawn potential upcoming Green Box between the 200W SMA and the 300W SMA represent the time and price ranges we may experience in the drawn scenario (not historically we have not spent much time in the Green Box and the COVID event is the first time we have reached these levels of undervaluation to date). NOTE: Prior Cycle Green Box has been drawn for comparison reference. LOG CHART The above Worst Case Analysis is combined with some simple TA and Key Historic Support levels on the Log Chart. The worst case Cycle Bottom shown on the chart price levels assumes the current trend direction and uses measured moves which align with key long chart support / resistance levels and potentially the 300W SMA (Violet line).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie