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BTC Retracement - Is it a FAKEOUT? Uh...YES!!!Following up on my analysis of BTC after this weekend and going into this Thanksgiving Week. Please take a look at my previous analyses of BTC after we hit the All Time High to see how I've mapped out this progression to where we are now. We have seen BTC drop down to exactly where we projected....the Weekly Demand Source. And as targeted for our more precise level, it came right down to the top of the Daily Zone of the Weekly Source (~80.6K). Wow! You can't make this stuff up, guys. This is solid thorough Technical Analysis that you too can learn!!! Well, where do we go from here: This review is a closer dive down into the Hourly time frame, where I think we have to monitor the prices for the short-term. We have seen a pullback this weekend that pushed us back up to the top of this Weekly Demand Source. That level is going to have strong resistance again, and I expect a rejection back down into this large Weekly zone. It's important to note this weekend push up, we had an H1 BOS - H1 candle close above 86.4K. I expect that to be retested and see the price possibly bounce between this 86.4 - 88.4K range for a little bit. A close of an H1 candle back below 85.7K will be the sign that it is falling back to the source of this H1 break and back to the Daily Zone of the Weekly Source (80.6K). Remember, we touched the top of the Daily Zone (80.6K), but I don't think that touch was significant enough. There are a LOT of buyers inside of that Daily Zone, and touching it with a wick is not sufficient from my experience. We need to see at least a 4 Hour Candle go deeper into that zone and see a strong bullish rejection. When will we go bullish again: The real sign of the fall being over is going to show up first on the H1, with an H1 BOS outside of that Daily Zone (77K - 80.6K). IF we see that, expect a return to the source of that BOS. From there, the bullish momentum needs to be confirmed on the H4 for the REAL BULL BUY. For now, the higher time frames are still ruling. The Weekly MUST be satisfied with enough volume and activity within this weekly Source. Until then, again, don't get tricked into buying BTC unless you are short-term trading it.
Short
by bigkid803
BTC, OH BTC...Where Art Thou Going? - The Next Target = 77K-80KThis is part 2 of my analysis on BTC since we had the initial All Time High and the Break of Structure that led to all of this downfall. Please see the previously posted analysis on BTC and the analysis on ETH to see how the market structure has been playing out. As mentioned in my previous post, don't follow the hype of Tariffs, Flash Crashes, and other non-sense reasons as to why BTC is dumping to these levels. This is a clear technical breakdown that is following how I "Read" market structure. After the ATH of ~ 125K, we had a Break of Structure on the H4, that pulled back to what I call the "source" and then gave a strong rejection. This was followed by a Daily Break of Structure, and then a Weekly Break of Structure as well. This almost always leads to a continued rejection, and the target is the Daily "Source Zone" and then the Weekly Demand Source Zone. As of today, we have fallen down through the Daily Source and are just inside of the large Weekly Source Zone (~77K - 88.5K). We will now have to dive down into this zone and look for the Daily Source to see more precisely where BTC is going. The daily range is between 77K - 80K, so that is the most likely target. Being a daily source within a weekly source, there should be a strong volume of buyers at this level, and we should see BTC spring back up from there.
Short
by bigkid803
BTC, OH BTC...THY ZONES ARE SO UNCHANGING!!!What in the world has been going on with BTC, you ask? Here is a top level view from the weekly and daily. The structure we are seeing is just that ...market structure. There was no "flash crash", "tariff topple", etc. This has been the market being the market and following solid market structure that I've seen play out time after time, regardless of the asset. What happened: So...when we reached ATH on BTC near 125K, we had a weekly support zone at 109K - 115K. This zone SHOULD have held price IF we were going to stay bullish, and continue to new highs. On the week of Oct 13, we had a weekly Break of Structure (BOS) with a close just below this zone. It was a tight close at this level, but it did close below. That was the first sign of a major problem. Why it Matters: As I have shown in previous structures, when we see a BOS, the market most likely (80%+) will have a return to the "Source" of that BOS as a FAKEOUT, before making the ultimate move in the direction of the break. We saw this fakeout return up on the weeks of Oct 20th and 27th. As far as the "flash crash" back on Oct 10, the market had already given us this warning on the Daily Chart. We had a daily Break of Structure from the ATH, and a return to the source. After that return, the big drop came to break the weekly structure. These structure breaks always start on the lower time frames, and then build to higher ones. So, the daily showed it first...then the weekly. If you go back and look at the daily chart, it's fairly clear. So what Now?: As for where we are now.... We have already had the Weekly Break of Structure and the return to the source of the break. So, now the market is "hunting" the Weekly Source Zone...It is all but guaranteed to go there. This Weekly Source Zone is big, from ~76,800 - 87,800. To find more accurately where I think we are actually going, I'm going back down to the daily to see the daily source zone within that Weekly Source. That zone is smaller, between 76,800 - 81,000. Conclusion: So, in my analysis, we ARE going to between 76,800 and 81K BTC. There's not much of anything that can stop it. There is a Daily Source Zone that we are currently in now, that could slow down this fall, and we could see some kind of "Dead Cat bounce" that pushes prices back up some, but I believe it is purely another fake out move to entice more buyers....it will not likely hold. Maybe a few small Fair Value Gaps get filled up to around 99K, but I don't see it being more than that. Once we see that Daily Source zone break (93,300 - 96,300), it's a fall right down to the Weekly Source, and again, most likely to 76,800 - 81K.
Short
by bigkid803
Bitcoin, signs of weakeningBitcoin are showing signs of weakening. 1.RSI are poiting down, and btc growing price. Possibility of Diverging RSI. 2.Bitcoin are loosing vol. That's mean the main trend are loosing strength. Technically by the books thats mean the trend are wrong, people are not interessed at that price. 3.Bitcoin broke a triangle at 60k and should be flying 30% right now, but is not. 4.Bitcoin are performing an rising wedge, that pattern has fail rating of 6% (if confirmed breaking the bellow trendline) with objetive on 33% of fall. Positive OBS. We know that vol can be low cause people are trading altcoins, btc are loosing marketshare. Just be aware.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by TalesFortes
BTC/USD head&shoulders: rise or fall?Here we have btc/usd head and shoulders pattern which is not in action yet. 1. The action to be started right after the neck of the pattern is broken. My recommendation is to take short from ~32k down to ~21k. 2. If the i.1 is not be in action, then the graph will certainly rise after 15th of Jan of 2021 as it go through the diagonal line above. The trading strategy here is as follows: we should buy at ~33k up to 35k and sell from ~47k to 50k.
BShort
by EcoGEMClub
1
BTC. 4h. Local target is $9680. Global one unchanged.Hello! Briefly about the history. The price continues to move according to our main scenario. In the previous idea , we wrote about the critical level $10,750 , which buyers could not cope with within 9 days. There were false breakouts and nothing more. The mark $10,600 is confidently broken on the volume and we believe that it is just the beginning. News background. Last night, the calm flat of the crypto world was awakened by the news about the accusation of the Bitmex exchange co-owner in money laundering. Without hesitation, BTC rapidly went down, followed by other coins. It just so happened that the new sleaze in the crypt happens exactly when it is necessary to start the price impulse in the right direction. Today, the negative news background continued : Donald Trump has Covid-19. After lunch, the stock market will shake a lot, and with it the cryptocurrency market. We think that the price movement will be directed downward. Our thoughts are as follows: level $10,300 will be broken level $10,000 will be broken on $9800 dense walls, but they will be pushed through and form a false breakdown to $9680 and only then a flat in the range $9700-10,000 can start. P.S. These are local targets. The global ones remain unchanged. _________________________________ Each " like under the idea" boosts the level of our happiness by 0.05% . If we help you to be calmer and richer - help us to be happier :)
Short
by P_S_trade
BTC/USD - Fall - Correction incoming.Hi people. Few hours back I was still LONG and waiting for what BTC will tell. Now I cancelled my longs and we are going short for short-term correction. Too many wicks on top.. price is continuously rejected from higher prices. Too many chances to break out. But at the same time everything looks kind off nice and safe.. It seems too obvious that BTC is forming triangle or bull flag for many people = It will fall or If it will go higher it will at first stop out the majority of the people that are now long and patiently waiting for breakout up.. More likely "Bart simpson" will play out. See you down there :) Waiting for buy again.
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by Blenderx