BTC: The 15-Year Prophecy (Hosoda Time & The Diagonal)There is a ghost in the machine.
For the last few months, amidst the noise of breakouts and new highs, a specific signal has been flashing a warning that defies the rules of a standard Bull Market. It is a "glitch" in the data—a silence where there should be noise.
Most are ignoring it. Some are confused by it. Today, we are going to try solving it.
Below is the full evolution of the Bitcoin setup, from the Daily traps to the Macro truth, revealing why the "Silence" is actually the loudest signal we have ever seen.
Part 1: The Micro Trap (1D Chart)
Zooming into the daily timeframe, the structure of the decline is textbook. We are currently navigating Wave (4), but the context provided by the previous move is critical.
The "Extended" Wave 3: The drop we just witnessed wasn't a standard correction; it was an impulsive sell-off where Wave 3 was extended. when the third wave extends, it confirming strong momentum in the direction of the trend. The bears are in control.
Current Status (Wave 4): We seem to be in the middle of a Wave (4) relief rally, potentially unfolding as an ABC correction.
Sub-waves 'a' and 'b' appear complete, with 'b' potentially establishing a local higher low.
What's Next: We are likely waiting for Wave 'c' to expand upwards to potentially complete the structure.
The Potential Resistance ($99k): If this structure holds, Wave 'c' might push towards the resistance confluence around $99,323. This area could serve as a ceiling for this corrective phase.
The Downside Risk ($79k): Traders should remain cautious. If Wave (4) finds resistance near $99k, the Elliott Wave guidelines suggest a Wave (5) decline could follow. If that scenario plays out, the market might target the major support zone near $79,000.
Part 2: The Time Anomaly (1W Chart)
While the daily chart showed us the immediate price action, the Weekly chart reveals the true scale of the move. As discussed in previous updates, we are navigating a large-scale Irregular Flat Correction, and we are currently at the tail end of Wave (1) of the 5-wave impulse that makes up the larger C-Wave.
So, the entire impulsive structure we just analyzed on the Daily chart? That was just the first leg of this Weekly move.
☁️ The Ichimoku Signal: Testing "Senkou Span B" Price action has now entered the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), a critical zone of turbulence.
The Level: you can see candles trading inside the cloud. We have already tested the bottom support, specifically the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B).
The Forecast: Hitting this level signals that Wave (1) is either ending or has already ended. However, the market rarely makes it easy. I am expecting a potential "False Breakout" below the Cloud to trigger panic, followed by a sharp reclamation. That fake-out would likely mark the bottom of Wave (1) and start of Wave (2).
⏳ The Time Anomaly: Why so fast? There is a strange disconnect in the "Time" dimension of this cycle compared to history (see picture).
2021 Cycle: In the previous bull run, the correction for Wave 1 typically took 70 days to cool the RSI down to 37.
Current Cycle: We have smashed down to an RSI of 35.8 in just 42 days.
The Question: Why is the market correcting nearly twice as fast as before? This "Time Compression" indicates the cycle is moving faster and more violently than we are used to.
The "BBWP Mystery" Finally, look at the BBWP (Volatility) in the below picture. This presents a genuine anomaly. Throughout this cycle, we have seen contractions many times, yet the spectrum never reached the extreme 90% expansion levels. Now, at the very end of the cycle, we are seeing another massive BBWP Contractions.
Why is this happening? Is it just noise, or is this contraction actually telling us the truth?
Part 4: The Truth (6-Month Macro Chart)
Why is the market moving so fast? And what is the "BBWP Signal" we mentioned Before? Look at the 6-Month Logarithmic Chart below.
The Big Picture: Elliott Wave Supercycle on 6M Log Scale
On the logarithmic chart, Bitcoin appears to be wrapping up a massive impulse wave that started from its early days:
Wave (I): Peaked around 2013 (~$1,200 high).
Wave (II): Bottomed in 2015 (~$200 low).
Wave (III): Explosive rally to the 2021 all-time high (~$69,000).
Wave (IV): The 2022 bear market low (~$15,500).
Wave (V): Ongoing since late 2022, but here's the twist—it's unfolding as an ending diagonal (wedge pattern with overlapping subwaves: 1-2-3-4-5).
2.Applying Hosoda Time Theory (Ichimoku Time Theory indicate potential future market turning point).
The vertical lines in the chart are not Fibonacci; they are Hosoda Numbers (9, 13, 17, 21...),
9: Marked the 2023 Bull Run start.
13: Exactly Marked the Jan 2025 Top as end of wave 3, which matches the irregular flat analysis on Weekly chart which states that Cycle top was on Jan 2025.
17 (±1): Matches our projection for the next major pivot—the end of wave IV and the start of the final Wave V run on Jul-2026 or Jan-2027.
The "Mystery": The BBWP Anomaly
BBWP is contracting sharply now on weekly chart—at what feels like the end of the cycle, not the start. This flips the script on historical behavior. Why? I tie it back to the higher-degree Elliott count: The ending diagonal's converging nature naturally squeezes volatility, compressing Bollinger Bands as momentum fades. Instead of signaling a fresh bull, this late-cycle contraction could be foreshadowing a reversal—think trend exhaustion rather than accumulation.
A Possible Explanation: If the macro structure is indeed an Ending Diagonal, then this volatility crunch (BBWP contractions) and the market correcting nearly twice as fast as before makes perfect sense. We would be squeezing into the apex of a 15-year wedge. The market might be running out of "oxygen".
The Verdict: With the 6-Month structure potentially squeezing into a corrective Wave IV, the weight of evidence suggests that the path of least resistance is down. Until the market touches the lower boundary of this diagonal (or invalidates the structure), the only logical macro view is bearish.
