BTC vs Silver: Is This a New Major Bottom?1️⃣ BTC/Silver at Channel Support = Where Big Bottoms Formed Before 📉➡️📈**
- Every time BTC/SILVER touched the bottom of this rising channel, a major bottom followed:
- 🦠 Covid crash → huge recovery after
- 🐻 Bear‑market low of the current cycle → next bull phase started
- 🔁 Today the ratio is again sitting on that same lower trendline, which suggests we might be near another major bottom zone, not the middle of a fresh long‑term collapse.
2️⃣ RSI at All‑Time Lows = Extreme Exhaustion
- The weekly RSI for BTC/SILVER is at record low levels on this chart.
- When momentum is this oversold:
- It usually means sellers are exhausted and positioning is very one‑sided.
- Historically, extremes in the BTC–silver ratio have often been followed by mean‑reversion moves back up as risk appetite slowly returns.
This doesn’t guarantee an immediate bounce, but it strongly hints that most of the pain vs silver might already be priced in.
3️⃣ A “Different” Bull Market → A “Different” Bear Market 🤔
- Past BTC cycles often had:
- A parabolic blow‑off top, then
- A brutal −70% to −80% drawdown from the all‑time high.
- This cycle was not the same:
- ETF flows, more institutions, and more macro‑driven behavior
- Less crazy vertical move than earlier cycles
- Heavy rotation into metals while BTC cooled off instead of pure mania
Because of this, the expectation here is:
- ❌ Not a face‑melting pump straight to 300k.
- ❌ Not necessarily a textbook −70% crash like in past winters.
- ✅ More likely a “different” bear market:
- BTC consolidates, underperforms metals and some stocks
- The BTC/SILVER ratio resets at the channel bottom
- Drawdown is milder and more sideways‑grindy than previous full‑on nukes
4️⃣ Final thought for positioning 🧠
- Be prepared in case BTC does a smaller bear market.
- And at the same time, don’t be over‑exposed in case BTC still delivers a standard deep bear market like past −70% drawdowns.
Balancing those two possibilities is the key: respect the historical risk, but also recognize that this cycle’s structure and the BTC vs silver chart hint at something *less brutal* than many fear.
