Bitcoin continues to go longBitcoin is trading in a narrow range today, with price movements confined to around 1,000 points, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, BTC continues to find strong buying support near key levels, displaying a classic bottoming formation on the 4-hour chart, accompanied by a bullish MACD divergence signal. The current price has entered a value investment zone, with smart money quietly accumulating positions and rebound momentum building. Traders may consider scaling into long positions in batches.
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You will ask yourself "how did he know Btc would do that"?On Aug 9th I suggested Btc would pump from $112K to at least $121K (green box). That has now been confirmed. I also anticipated that Btc would retrace from there, to either T1 or T2 (Red boxes). That is now confimed and Btc may still go lower. See original chart below.
Simply determining support and reisitance is not enough! I must determine with greater certainty in which direction the asset going (at all times). Will it hit support first or reistance? This makes ALL the difference in trading. I have determined the diection from Aug 9th to go up... And then down from my T1 (green box)...and then up from one of my 2 red boxes.
Now that the 12% chance of a Btc pump without a retrace has been ruled out, the probabilities for my 2 bearish targets have increased accordingly. Now T1 (red) is 28% & T2 is 72%.
I have taken profit at the top and will buy back in at the next low. I am monitoring price action closely and anticpate buying into this next bottom.
May the trends be with you.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are bullishBitcoin needs to monitor the effectiveness of support at its secondary low today, with a breakout point providing key support. We anticipate a high probability of continued volatile upward movement, with periods of consolidation and pullbacks to build momentum.
Yesterday's price retreated above 116,000 and stabilized, awaiting a breakout above the previous high to continue its upward trend. In the four-hour chart, 116,500 is seen as support, while the 15-minute chart shows a volatile upward channel structure. The short-term technical pattern is bullish.
Bitcoin long positions can be entered in the 117,000-117,300 range, with an eye on 118,500.
Ethereum long positions can be entered in the 4370-4400 range, with an eye on 4500.
Bitcoin stop-loss orders should be placed below 116,500, while Ethereum stop-loss orders should be placed below 4370.
BTC Accumulates and Adjusts Slightly💎 BTC WEEKEND PLAN UPDATE (15/08)
BTC Analysis After PPI
Trading Highlights
After the PPI release, BTC completed its bullish wave and reached a peak of 123.2K, exactly at the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension level – a strong resistance zone that had been anticipated.
Afterward, the price sharply reversed, dropping to the 117K support area – aligning with the main uptrend line and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish wave → this was where we successfully executed a bottom-picking buy.
Current Price Action
The price is now recovering from 117K toward the 120.7K – 121K resistance area (a confluence of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, a previous supply zone, and the H4 EMA).
The short-term trend remains a technical rebound after a sharp drop, with no confirmed sustained bullish reversal yet.
Scenarios & Next Trend
• Main Scenario: Price rebounds to 120.7K – 121K → faces selling pressure → sharply reverses downward following a corrective wave toward 116K – 115K (strong support).
• Alternative Scenario: If 121K is broken with high volume, BTC could revisit the 122.9K – 123.2K zone.
Key Levels
• Resistance: 120.7K – 121K / 122.9K – 123.2K
• Support: 117K / 116K – 115K”
BITCOIN BULLS ARE GONNA DO THIS NOW!!!! (Fakeout Wick) Yello Paradisers! In this video, I've been updating Bitcoin price action and the Elliot Wave theory. I've been doing lots of advanced technical stuff. We've been going through channeling and updating ourselves about the most important support and resistance levels. We've been taking a look at the MACD histogram, the RSI, and the stochastic RSI. We've been professionally analyzing the volume; we've understood who is in power right now and what's going to happen next with the highest probability.
We've also been taking a look at what kind of confirmations we are waiting for in order for us to be able to open long or short positions.
Paradisers, make sure that you are trading with a professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations, play tactically, and focus on long-term profitability, not on getting rich quick.
Remember, don’t trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
BTC/USD Eyeing Breakout Toward $121.5K – Supply Zone Retest ?Current Price: ~$119,872 showing consolidation just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
Structure: Price has bounced from the supply zone (~118.4K–118.6K) and is currently pushing upward.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is trading within a cloud breakout attempt, indicating potential bullish momentum.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Two unfilled FVGs above suggest liquidity targets at ~$120.6K and ~$121.5K.
Support Levels:
Strong Support: ~$115.8K–116.5K.
Local Supply Zone Support: ~$118.4K.
Target: Main upside target sits at $121,533, aligning with a prior high and liquidity pool.
Trade Plan (Long Setup):
Entry: $119,700 – $119,900 (current consolidation zone)
Stop Loss: Below $118,400 (below supply zone)
Take Profit 1: $120,600 (first FVG target)
Take Profit 2: $121,533 (major resistance/liquidity target)
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2.8
Notes: Wait for a bullish confirmation candle or 1H close above $119,900 before entering. Avoid chasing if price spikes without retest.
This plan follows the chart’s bullish structure and aims to ride the move into the untested liquidity areas above.
If you want, I can also give you a short scenario plan in case price rejects here. That would make this a full two-way trade setup.
Btc anticpated downside - short term price action explainedHere is a 15 min chart to follow up on the daily chart below (chart originated Aug 9th)
Now that my uspide has hit (within 1% and within the expected timeframe)... I have outline the anticipated path down to my lower target (red) T1.
I will turn very bullish after my red target gets hit.
May the trends be with you.
Btc hit my upside target perfectly. Now retrace to downside T1?On Aug 9th, I suggested that Btc would break the downward trend and head up to my upside target (green T1). It did so the next day. I then anticipated a retrace to either T1 or T2 based on historical data (see chart below)
My upside target hit within 1%. So now...with the highest probability, Btc may now retrace into T1 (1st red box). There's always a chance it can go lower, but based on price action I expect a bounce at T1. We may not get T2 (even though there is a higher historical probability).
There is still that 12% chance Btc is just up only from here (with NO retrace into T1).
***Let me know what target you think will be hit (T1 or T2), or if you think up only from here.
May the trends be with you
$BTC Daily UpdateCRYPTOCAP:BTC #Bitcoin $122,809 resistance test rejected, $118,168 current support, 1D closed with bearish pin bar, Previous 4h also bearish with current 4H forming bearish engulfing, $116,908 next support from here, Current support test likely, if followed thru on a bearish engulfing then expect next support test.
Bitcoin Soars Past $122K, But a "Digital Fort Knox" Threat LoomsThe cryptocurrency market is in the throes of a historic rally, a tidal wave of capital and confidence that has propelled Bitcoin beyond the formidable $122,000 mark. Now trading within 1% of its all-time high, the world’s premier digital asset is riding a powerful current shaped by two monumental events: a surprisingly favorable executive order from the White House and a relentless cascade of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This surge has ignited euphoria across the financial world, with even the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, touching highs not seen since its 2021 peak.
Yet, beneath the glittering surface of this bull run, a profound and unsettling question is taking shape. As institutional giants and corporate treasuries embrace Bitcoin, some of its most astute observers are sounding an alarm. They warn that this corporate adoption boom is creating a path that looks eerily similar to the one gold traveled in the 20th century—a path that ended with its effective nationalization and centralization in the vaults of Fort Knox. This growing concern posits that Bitcoin’s greatest triumph, its integration into the mainstream financial system, could become its ultimate vulnerability, presenting a new and potent centralization threat that challenges the asset's very soul. The market is now caught between the thrill of unprecedented price discovery and the chilling possibility that it is witnessing the rise of a digital Fort Knox.
The Anatomy of a Rally: A Perfect Bullish Storm
The recent price explosion was not a random event but the result of a powerful confluence of factors that have systematically validated Bitcoin’s role in the global financial landscape. The market sentiment has been overwhelmingly positive, driven by a one-two punch of regulatory encouragement and undeniable institutional demand.
First, a landmark executive order from the White House sent a clear signal that the United States is moving towards a framework of integration rather than opposition for digital assets. The order, widely seen as pro-crypto, has initiated a formal exploration of how to safely incorporate cryptocurrencies into the bedrock of American wealth: 401(k) retirement plans. For years, regulatory uncertainty has been the single greatest barrier holding back a true institutional deluge. This directive acts as a powerful de-risking event, providing a level of clarity and legitimacy that large-scale investors have been desperately seeking. The potential to unlock even a small fraction of the trillions of dollars held in retirement accounts has sent a jolt of optimism through the market, assuring corporations and funds that they are investing in an asset class with a government-acknowledged future.
Second, while the executive order provided the strategic tailwind, the tactical buying pressure has come directly from spot Bitcoin ETFs. These regulated financial products, which allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through a traditional brokerage account, have been an unprecedented success. In a stunning display of demand over the last week, these funds have absorbed hundreds of millions of dollars in net inflows on consecutive days. To issue new shares, these ETFs must purchase the underlying Bitcoin from the open market, creating a massive and constant source of demand. This dynamic acts like a supply shock; as billions of dollars from mainstream investors flow through ETFs to chase a finite number of available coins, the price is algorithmically forced upward. The flow of funds into these products has become one of the most closely watched metrics, serving as a real-time indicator of institutional appetite and a direct driver of price action.
The Ghost of Gold: A Historical Warning for a Digital Age
Even as investors celebrate this new era of institutional acceptance, a chilling historical parallel offers a cautionary tale. The concern, articulated by prominent on-chain analysts, is that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is mirroring the centralization of gold that occurred in the United States, a process that ultimately subjected the precious metal to complete state control.
To grasp the gravity of this comparison, one must look back to President Franklin D. Roosevelt's Executive Order 6102, signed in 1933. Amidst the Great Depression, the order made it illegal for U.S. citizens to privately hold significant amounts of gold coins or bullion, compelling them to turn over their holdings to the Federal Reserve. The stated goal was to stabilize the economy, but the result was the mass transfer of a decentralized monetary asset from the hands of the people into the centralized vaults of the U.S. government. The nation's gold was consolidated, most famously at Fort Knox, giving the state absolute control over the physical supply.
Decades later, in 1971, President Richard Nixon delivered the final blow. With the "Nixon Shock," he unilaterally severed the U.S. dollar's convertibility to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system that had anchored global finance. Having already secured control of the physical asset, the government was then free to change the rules of the system it underpinned.
The argument today is that Bitcoin could face a similar, albeit modern, fate. A 21st-century "nationalization" would not involve government agents seizing hardware wallets. It would be a far more sophisticated and systemic takeover, executed through the very financial instruments and institutions that are currently being praised for driving the bull market. The end result could be a scenario where a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply, while technically on a decentralized network, is effectively controlled by a handful of state-sanctioned entities.
This digital "Fort Knox" could be constructed through several vectors. The majority of Bitcoin purchased by ETFs and large corporations is not held in self-custody. Instead, it is entrusted to a small number of large, regulated custodians. These firms represent centralized points of control. A government could easily exert legal and regulatory pressure on these few custodians, compelling them to freeze, block, or even seize the assets they manage on behalf of millions of investors.
The ETFs themselves are a primary vehicle for this potential centralization. By concentrating hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin under the management of a few powerful financial firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, they make the asset supply vastly easier to regulate and control. It is far more efficient for a state to influence a handful of ETF issuers than to police millions of individual Bitcoin holders around the world.
Finally, the public companies that have famously added Bitcoin to their balance sheets are also part of this equation. As regulated entities, they must comply with government mandates. A state could enact policies that influence or dictate how these systemically important corporate treasuries are managed, effectively bringing them under state influence without ever formally seizing the assets.
Bitcoin’s Inherent Defense: Can Decentralization Hold the Line?
While the historical parallel to gold is compelling and sobering, it is not a perfect one. Bitcoin possesses unique technological attributes that provide a powerful defense against the kind of centralization that befell gold.
The most fundamental defense is the power of self-custody. Unlike gold, which is a physical object that is cumbersome to store and move securely, Bitcoin is pure information. An individual or entity that controls their own private keys holds a sovereign asset that is incredibly difficult to confiscate without their cooperation. This ability to "be your own bank" remains a powerful counter-force to the trend of custodial reliance.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin network is a globally distributed system. Miners, nodes, developers, and users are spread across dozens of countries, operating under a multitude of legal jurisdictions. No single government can unilaterally control the network or dictate its rules. An attempt by one major nation to implement draconian controls would likely trigger a mass exodus of capital and talent to more favorable jurisdictions, a powerful economic disincentive against overreach. The current global competition among nations to become "crypto hubs" demonstrates that governments are aware of this dynamic and are incentivized to create attractive, rather than punitive, regulatory environments.
This tension may ultimately lead to the bifurcation of the Bitcoin market. One tier could consist of the regulated, "paper" Bitcoin—held in ETFs and by public corporations, fully compliant, but subject to the rules and potential control of the traditional financial system. The other tier would be the sovereign, "physical" Bitcoin—held in self-custody by those who prioritize censorship resistance and decentralization above all else.
A Future Forged in Conflict
As Bitcoin knocks on the door of a new all-time high, the market is caught in a powerful paradox. The institutional adoption that has legitimized Bitcoin and driven its price to stratospheric levels is the very same force that introduces a systemic risk to its core principles. The celebration of the current rally is, in essence, a celebration of the construction of the very infrastructure that could be used to co-opt it.
The journey to $122,000 was paved with institutional capital and regulatory acceptance. The journey forward will be defined by a fundamental conflict: the battle between mainstream financial integration and the preservation of the decentralized ethos that made Bitcoin a revolutionary technology. The future of the world's most important digital asset will be forged in the crucible of this tension, determining whether it remains a truly sovereign asset for the people or becomes another tool in the arsenal of the centralized systems it was designed to disrupt.
Bitcoin trading ideasLooking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has broken out of its downward channel, marking the end of a nearly two-week correction. The market will continue to test previous highs. Trading strategy remains unchanged, with a focus on buying on pullbacks and exiting the market on profit taking near previous highs. If you have any trading questions, please leave a comment and we'll respond to them.
Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar 4-Hour Chart (BTCUSD)4-hour chart displays the price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) from late July to August 3, 2025. The current price is $113,570.31, with a 24-hour change of +$1,064.77 (+0.95%). The chart shows a recent upward trend followed by a sharp decline, with key levels marked at $113,570.31 (buy/sell price) and $111,135.38 (support level). The trading volume and price range are highlighted, with a notable drop below the $113,570.31 level as of 03:16:00 on the chart.
Bitcoin market analysisBitcoin has been fluctuating downward since it hit a new high on July 14. It rebounded upward after testing the downward support level on August 3. What we need to pay attention to now is the upper resistance level of the downward channel. If it breaks through, this adjustment will end and you can go long on the pullback. We need to pay attention to the support near 11,200 below. You can consider going long with a light position near 11,200, with a stop loss of 1,000-1,500, and see the strength of the rebound.
BTC At Key Support! Will Bulls Breakout From $116K? Don’t Miss **💎 BTC TRADE SETUP — HOLDING SUPPORT FOR NEXT LEG UP**
📈 **Market Bias:** Mixed → Short-term pressure, long-term bullish
🔍 **Key Level:** Price holding near **50-SMA** support
⚡ **Potential:** Consolidation could fuel breakout toward **\$117.5K**
**🛠 Setup:**
* **Direction:** LONG
* **Entry:** \$116,132.70
* **Stop Loss:** \$114,500 (below support)
* **Take Profit:** \$117,500
* **Size:** 1 contract (1x leverage)
* **Confidence:** 70%
* **Timing:** Market open
📌 **Why Long?**
* BTC above major moving averages — bullish trend intact
* RSI & MACD hint at possible upside momentum
* Favorable risk-reward near key support zone
⚠ **Risk Note:** Breakdown below **\$113,069** (50-SMA) flips bias bearish. Volatility can cause sharp swings — position sizing matters.
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Bitcoin Bears Lining Up? My Short PlanBitcoin is flirting with a potential pullback, and I’ve got my eyes locked on this short setup.
The setup is a double top on the hourly chart.
📊 Risk/Reward: 3.7
🎯 Entry: 117 515
🛑 Stop Loss: 118 033
💰 Take Profit 1 (50%): 115 629
💰 Take Profit 2 (50%): 115 116
Seeing negative rsi divergence on the hourly chart, signaling slowing buying momentum.
I am looking for the hourly candle to close within the range drawn on the chart with lower volume.
I’ll be scaling out at TP1 and letting the second half ride if the bears get their way.
📅 Will today be the start of a deeper drop?
📍 I’m documenting my trades as part of my live trading journey – follow along to see how this one plays out and catch my next setups in real time.
Not financial advice – just my personal analysis.
BTC(20250808) market analysis and operationAugust 8th BTC Contract Technical Analysis:
Today, the daily chart closed with a small bullish candlestick pattern, with prices rising above the moving average. The accompanying indicator formed a death cross and showed shrinking volume. The overall upward trend is currently dominant. Although there was a significant pullback at the beginning of this week, it has not continued. However, the upward trend continues, with consecutive highs broken. Positive news and data are driving prices higher. The short-term hourly chart currently shows a series of bearish candlestick patterns and a death cross. This suggests a strong intraday pullback, with support at the 115,500 area. This is a level to watch during the European session. Furthermore, today, Friday, is a cautious market.
Today's BTC Short-Term Contract Trading Strategy:
Sell at the current price of 116,500, with a stop loss at 117,300 and a target of 115,500. Buy if the price does not break below 115,500, with a stop loss at 115,000 and a target of 117,000.